Bitcoin price retreated to the important support level at $90,000 on Thursday, erasing most of the gains made in the initial days of the year. It has retreated by over 4% and continues to underperform other popular assets like gold and the stock market. Still, analysts are optimistic that the coin has more upside this year, with some expecting it to hit $300,000.

Analysts are bullish on the Bitcoin price 

Bitcoin price remains in a technical bear market after falling by over 30% from its highest level in 2025. This crash happened as demand waned and as the January Effect started to end.

In a note to CNBC, Standard Chartered analysts predicted that the coin may jump to $150,000 this year, much lower than the original estimate of $300,000. The bank reduced its target because it expects that Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies will not buy as aggressively as they did last year.

Analysts at CoinShares predicted that Bitcoin would trade between $120,000 and $170,000, pointing to the potential interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve now that inflation has continued moving downwards.

Maple Finance, a popular company in the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry, predicted that the coin would jump to $175,000, while Bit Mining expects it to rise to $225,000.

Other bullish investors are those from companies like Nexo, FundStrat, and Strategy. Nexo analysts expect that the coin will rises to between $150,000 and $200,000. 

The bullish case for Bitcoin 

These Bitcoin price forecasts were delivered to CNBC, which collects them from some of the top companies in the industry. A closer look at the report identifies several reasons why the coin may continue rising this year.

First, there is optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates, especially when Donald Trump replaces Jerome Powell with a friendly Federal Reserve chairman. Bitcoin and other risky assets tend to do well when the Fed is cutting interest.

Second, the US will have a stimulus package in the form of tax refunds as part of Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful. It is estimated that some taxpayers will receive thousands of dollars from the government, funds that may find their way to the crypto market.

At the same time, Trump has hinted that the government will provide a stimulus dividend check using the tariff revenue the government will make. However, such funding will need congressional approval, which is highly unlikely.

Third, the Supreme Court will likely cancel Donald Trump’s tariffs on Friday, noting that the president did not have the authority to impose it as the US was not in an emergency. Such a move would likely lead to lower prices, which would support the case for more cuts.

Additionally, analysts believe that Bitcoin ETF inflows will continue this year as institutional investors pile in. One reason for this will be the passing of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to happen this year. Also, analysts believe that Bitcoin will play catch-up to the soaring gold price.

Bitcoin price prediction and technical analysis 

A closer look shows that the Bitcoin price retreated after hitting the important resistance level at $94,516. It remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Bitcoin also remains above the Supertrend indicator, one of the most common bullish signs in technical analysis. 

Most importantly, it has formed an ascending triangle pattern, a common continuation pattern made up of a horizontal resistance and an ascending trendline.

Therefore, the coin will likely rebound in the near term. The initial target price will be the upper side of the triangle followed by the psychological level at $100,000.

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Blackstone stock price retreated sharply as investors reacted to a major warning from Donald Trump on barring institutional investors from buying residential properties. It dropped to a low of $147, down from this week’s high of $163. So, will Trump’s ban have a major negative impact on the company?

Will Donald Trump’s residential housing ban affect Blackstone?

In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump said that he would soon ban institutional investors from acquiring residential properties in the United States, a move aimed at addressing soaring prices.

Blackstone, the biggest owner of these properties, will be one of the most affected companies if the proposal becomes law. That’s because the company has been acquiring projects, a move that has made it own thousands of houses in the country.

For example, the company acquired Home Partners of America in a $6 billion deal that gave it 17,000 rentals. It also bought Tricon Residential in a $3.5 billion deal that gave it over 38,000 homes.

Still, an executive order to ban these transactions will likely be met with legal actions by some of the biggest companies in the industry. Also, it is unclear whether the House of Representatives and the Senate will codify such a bill into law. 

Besides, the private equity has a long history of hiring some of the best lobbyists in the United States, which explains why Congress has resisted passing a law to end the carried interest loophole.

Even if the bill passes, it is unclear whether the US government will force Blackstone to liquidate its property portfolio. Also, as with any laws, chances are that it will have some loopholes.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the company continues doing well over time as its business is much bigger and the residential real estate is a much smaller part.

BX faces numerous tailwinds and headwinds ahead 

Fundamentally, Blackstone has numerous headwinds and tailwinds ahead. One of the main tailwind is that corporate activity will likely continue growing this year as interest rates start falling and as the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs start fading. 

As a result, the impact of Trump’s deregulation will be felt this year, a move that may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and dealmaking in the country.

The company’s private equity business will also benefit from the potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which are expected to move lower in the coming months.

Blackstone will also likely continue attracting more cash from investors. The most recent results showed that its inflows soared by $54.2 billion in the third quarter, bringing its fee-earning AUM to over $906.2 billion. This growth brought its assets under management to over $1.24 trillion.

Analysts are also bullish on the stock, with the average estimate being at $179, up by 17% from the current level. Some of the most bullish analysts are from companies like Deutsche Bank and BMO Capital Markets.

The main headwind, however, is that lower interest rates may lead to lower margins in its fast-growing private credit business whose fee-earning AUM has $432 billion in AUM. 

Blackstone stock price technical analysis 

The three-day chart shows that the Blackstone share price has remained under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of $194.27 in November 2024 to the current $153.60. 

It is consolidating at the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Most importantly, it has slowly formed a large symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are about to converge.

The stock’s Supertrend indicator has also turned green for the first time in months. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock remains under pressure ahead of Trump’s speech on the residential market at Davos. It will then rebound to the psychological level at $200 later this year.

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Tilray stock price has been highly volatile in the past few months as investors focused on Donald Trump’s cannabis reclassification efforts and its implications. It surged from $3.59 in June to a high of $23.16 in October. 

The stock then tumbled by 70% to $6.85 in December, then popped to $15.68 in the same month. It was trading at $9.50 on Monday this week, with its short interest rising to 16.8%.

Cannabis rescheduling could have a short-term boost to Tilray shares

Tilray Brands stock price will be in the spotlight this month as investors continue focusing on the reclassification. A recent report by The Marijuana Herald noted that Trump had directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to issue the final ruling by the end of this month. 

If the Department of Justice (DoJ) follows through this, it means that marijuana could be reclassified by this spring. If this happens, companies in the industry will remove some punitive taxes. It may also push legislators to consider a banking bill that has stalled in the Senate for years.

Tilray Brands, one of the biggest cannabis stocks does not have a big presence in the United States. Therefore, the company stands to benefit from relaxed rules as it has always hinted its ambition to enter the country.

The US is a major country in the cannabis industry, with estimates showing that it has a total addressable market (TAM) of over $42 bilion. However, entering the US will not be easy as competition is rife with companies like Curaleaf, Cresco Labs, Trulieve Cannabis, and Greem Thumb Industries.

The steady competition may limit the company’s growth and the stock performance after the reclassification works. At the same time, there is a risk that investors may sell the news once the process ends.

TLRY earnings ahead

Tilray stock price will be in the spotlight this week as the company publishes its financial results on January 9. The options market is pricing more downside, with puts being more than calls.

The most recent results showed that Tilray Brands’ revenue rose by 5% to $209 million in the first quarter of its fiscal year. This growth, which was better than expected, was mostly driven by its cannabis segment whose revenue rose by 5% to $64.5 billion. 

However, the company’s beverage business, which the company has invested in heavily, remained under pressure. The revenue dropped to $55.7 million, down from the previous $56 million. 

Analysts believe that this week’s revenue will come in at $211 million, flat from the same period last year. They also expect the annual revenue will be $863 million, up by 5.13% from a year earlier.

Tilray stock price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the TLRY stock price has crashed from a high of $23 to the current $9.50. It has remained below all moving averages, a sign that bears are in control.

Tilray has also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal signs. Therefore, the options market and the pattern will likely remain under pressure, potentially to a low of $6.95, its lowest level in December.

A break below that level will point to more downside, potentially to last year’s low of $3.60.

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Nio stock price remains in a deep bear market this year after falling by ~40% from its highest point this year. It has slumped to $4.86, erasing billions of dollars in value. A closer look shows that it is about to form a risky chart pattern, pointing to further downside.

Nio stock price forecast as risky patterns form

The daily chart reveals that the Nio share price has slumped from a high of $8 in October to the current $4.86. It is about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) has narrowed.

Nio has remained below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears remain in control today. Additionally, it continues to form a bearish flag pattern, a common continuation sign. This pattern is made up of a vertical line and a horizontal channel. 

Nio shares have moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, a sign that bears have prevailed today. It also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling in the near term, with the next key level to watch being the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $4, which is about 16% below the current level.

On the flip side, a move above the resistance at $5.50, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Nio’s business is doing well but challenges remain 

Nio stock price has crashed in the past few months, despite that company’s business continuing its growth trajectory. The most recent results showed that the company delivered 48,135 vehicles in December, up by 54.6% from the same period in 2024.

Nio delivered 124,807 vehicles in the fourth quarter, up by 71.7% from a year earlier, bringing the total deliveries in 2025 to 326,028. It has also delivered 997,592 vehicles since its inception.

Nio’s deliveries have jumped as the company has launched new brands. For example, ONVO, a recently launched brand, had over 7,000 deliveries in December compared to Nio’s premium brand, which delivered 9,154 vehicles. ES8 has now had over 40,000 deliveries since its launch.

Nio’s numbers were notable as other companies, especially Tesla, reported a big drop in sales in December last year  

Now, there are concerns that the company’s growth will slow in the coming months as some Chinese provinces have started slowing down their incentives for EV buyers. 

The other main concern for Nio is that its business has always struggled to turn a profit and has continued to dilute its shareholders. 

The most recent results showed that Nio made over $3 billion in revenue in the third quarter, a 16.7% increase from the same period a year earlier. However, despite this revenue and margin growth, the company still made a big loss of over $494 million. 

Nio also continued to raise capital, a move that has incraesed its outstanding shares to over 2.098 billion from 1.36 billion in 2021. The most recent fundraising happened in Septemnber when it raised $1.16 billion by selling its shares. 

Nio is not followed widely by Wall Street analysts. However, analysts following the company have a mixed outlook. Barclays sees the stock falling to $4, while Citigroup expects it to rise to $6.90. 

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The Nikkei 225 Index retreated by 1% today, Jan. 7, to ¥52,000, down from this week’s high of ¥52,590. It dropped as the ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and Japan escalated.

The China-Japan crisis has escalated

The Nikkei 225 Index dropped as investors reacted to the escalating geopolitical crisis between Japan and China. In a statement this week, China announced controls on exports to Japan for military use, intensifying a crisis that has been going on since Sanae Takaichi became prime minister. 

China announced that it will block the sale of all dual-use items for military use, including rare earth materials. The country blamed Japan’s statement that it may intervene in the Taiwan Strait.

Japan protested the announcement, noting that it may impact more than 40% of the shipments. It then asked China to withdraw the guidance, with a minister saying:

“The measures target only our country and deviate significantly from international practice. We intend to carefully examine and analyze the details and consider necessary responses.”

Analysts believe that many companies in the Nikkei 225 Index will be affected. The most notable ones are automakers like Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi, and Honda. These companies mostly rely on rare earth materials, mostly from China. 

Toyota stock dropped by over 1.65% in New York, while Honda Motor was down by 1.7%. Nissan shares also fell by nearly 2%.

Other companies that may be impacted are Mitsubishi Heavy, Hitachi, Itochu, and Hamamatsu Photonics. On the other hand, rare earth companies like Toyo Engineering soared by over 20% as investors anticipated more demand since China accounts for 70% of the supply. 

On the positive side, there are chances that the two countries will reach an agreement later this year. A good example of this is what happened between the US and China last year. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has remained stable as the crisis has escalated in the past few weeks. The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading at 156.51 on Wednesday, inside a range it has been at in the past few weeks. 

Japanese bond yields have remained steady in the past few days. The yield of the ten-year was trading at 2.10%, a few points below the highest point this year.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis 

Nikkei 225 Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index was trading at ¥52,000, down from this year’s high of ¥52,590. The current level is above the upper side of the symmetrical triangle pattern, a common bullish sign.

It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Also, it has remained above the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the most likely forecast is bullish, with the next key resistance at ¥53,000. On the flip side, a drop below the support at ¥51,500 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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Crypto prices lost momentum today, January 7, as investors started to book profits. Bitcoin retreated to $92,670 after hitting a key resistance level at $94,500. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved to near 50, while the Altcoin Season Index rose to 23.

This article provides a prediction for top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), JasmyCoin (JASMY), and Ripple (XRP).

Ethereum price technical analysis 

ETH price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $2,768 in December to the current $3,255. It formed a double-bottom pattern at $2,768 and the neckline at $3,478, its highest point on December 10.

The token has moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level and the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Supertrend indicator has turned green for the first time since December. 

Therefore, the token will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at $3,478, which is about 7% above the current level. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the 50% retracement level at $3,695. 

Ethereum has bullish catalysts that may drive it higher in the coming weeks. One of them is that the supply of Ethereum tokens in exchanges has continued falling. 

One reason for this is that Ethereum ETF inflows have continued rising. They rose by $114 million on Tuesday, the third consecutive day of inflows.

Another one is that the amount of staked ETH tokens has jumped. For example, BitMine has continued to stake its huge holdings, a process that will continue. 

The Ethereum price will also benefit from the ongoing growth of its ecosystem in areas like decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization.

XRP price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the XRP price formed a triple-bottom pattern at $1.800. It failed to move below that level in October, November, and December last year.

The token has moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. It has also moved above the Supertrend indicator for the first time since July last year.

Ripple price is now forming a bullish flag pattern, a common continuation sign in technical analysis. It has also moved above the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since October 2nd. 

Therefore, the token will likely continue rising as bulls target the psychological point at $3,000, which is about 33% above the current level. 

Like Ethereum, XRP price has some bullish catalysts, including the continuing ETF inflows and its growing utility.

Jasmy price prediction

Jasmy, a popular cryptocurrency known as Japan’s Bitcoin, has also started the year well. It jumped from a low of $0.00545 last week to a high of $0.0100, its highest point since November 11. 

The daily chart shows that the coin’s Supertrend indicator has turned green, which is a highly bullish sign in technical analysis. The coin’s rebound also formed a small double-bottom pattern, a common bullish continuation sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, JasmyCoin price will likely continue rising in the near term, with the next key target being at $0.0136, up by 53% above the current level. It was also its highest level on October 3rd. 

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AMD stock price has moved into a technical bear market after falling by 20% from its highest point in October. It has dropped to $215, and has formed an island reversal pattern, pointing to a potential retreat despite the ongoing AI boom. 

AMD business has continued thriving

Advanced Micro Devices, a top player in the semiconductor industry, has come under pressure in the past few months. This retreat happened as concerns about the AI bubble continued and as competition accelerated.

The most recent financial results showed that the company’s business continued doing well. Its results revealed that its revenue jumped to a record high of $9.2 billion, up by 36% from the third quarter of 2024.

Most of this revenue growth was driven by its data center business, which has accelerated in the past few months. It also benefited from the growth of its server and PC businesses. 

AMD’s AI chips are widely seen as the best alternatives to the more advanced Nvidia semiconductors. Indeed, the company announced a large deal with OpenAI last year. 

READ MORE: AMD stock tumbles sharply: why chip giant is facing profit-taking after 2025 rally

This deal will see OpenAI deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs. AMD also gave OpenAI warrants of about 160 million shares. It will also see AMD make billions of dollars annually from OpenAI. IREN, a large collocation company, has also decided to use Nvidia and AMD GPUs in its data centers.

The results also showed that the company’s profitability continued growing. Its operating income rose from $0.7 billion in Q3’24 to $1.3 billion in Q3’25. The net income jumped by 61% to over $1.23 billion.

Wall Street analysts are highly optimistic that the company’s growth will continue in the coming years. The average estimate is that the company’s fourth-quarter revenue will come in at $9.65 billion, up by 26% from Q4’24. 

This figure will bring the annual revenue to $34 billion, up by 32% from what it made in 2024. The analysts also see its yearly revenue growing by 31% on a year-on-year basis.

AMD’s valuation metrics are elevated

Wall Street analysts are hopeful that the AMD stock price has more upside to go in the near term. Data compiled by MarketBeat shows that the consensus target for the stock is $277, up by nearly 30% from the current level. A year ago, the target was $191, meaning that analysts have continued to boost their estimates.

Some top analysts have delivered a bullish forecast for the stock recently. For example, Cowen reiterated its buy rating, while Raymond James, Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Piper Sandler have boosted their estimates to overweight. 

However, the main concern is that the company is severely overvalued. For example, AMD stock has a forward P/E ratio of 88.25, much higher than the sector median of 31.56. In contrast, Nvidia, which is growing at a faster pace, has a multiple of less than 50.

AMD stock price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the AMD share price has been under pressure in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of $266 on October 29 to the current $214. 

A closer look shows that the stock has formed an island reversal pattern, a common bearish sign. This pattern happens after an asset makes a big gap and then consolidates. It often leads to a big reversal.

The stock has moved to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it retreats and possibly hits the key support at $200. It may also drop further as it attempts to fill the up-gap. 

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The S&P 500 Index remained on edge near its all-time high of $6,945  as investors prepared for the new year. It remains nearly 42% above its lowest level in April last year. This article highlights some of the top news that will drive the S&P 500 Index, SPY, and VOO ETFs this week. 

The Venezuela invasion to have a limited impact

One of the top S&P 500 Index, SPY, and VOO ETF news to watch this week is what happened during the weekend. In a statement, Donald Trump announced that the US had taken Nicolas Maduro and his wife. 

The two have now been charged in New York. At the same time, he announced that the United States will now be in charge of the country, with its oil companies investing billions of dollars in the energy sector. 

Still, while the event are significant, chances are that their impact on American equities will be limited. That’s because Venezuela has not been a large player in the energy sector for decades, with its daily production being less than 1 million barrels. 

S&P 500 Index to react to key macro data

American stocks will react to key macro numbers that will have an impact on the next Federal Reserve. The first key data will be the upcoming US manufacturing and services PMI reports by ISM and S&P Global. This is an important report that provides information on the state of the economy. 

The manufacturing PMI is expected to show that the sector continued to contract in December. It has been in a contraction phase for nearly 12 months now. This is confirmed by the official jobs numbers, which show that manufacturing numbers have been in the red since June last year.

The other important macro numbers will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday this week. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to reveal that the US created over 55,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate retreated from 4.6% to 4.50%. 

These numbers will be important as they will have an impact on the Federal Reserve later this year. While analysts expect the bank to leave rates unchanged this month, a weak jobs report would put pressure on the bank to consider cuts in March. 

The other key macro data to watch this week will be the ADP jobs report, which will come out on Wednesday. 

Earnings and holiday updates

The other catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs will be earnings by some large American companies. These earnings will come a week before the earnings season starts.

The first main earnings reports to watch will be companies like Constellation Brands, Jefferies Financial Group, and Albertsons. Meanwhile, RPM International and Mohawk Industries will release their results on Thursday. 

While all these are large companies, their impact on the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, like VOO and SPY, will be limited as investors will be focusing on the real earnings season that starts next week.

Traders will also watch other companies like Walmart, Target, and Kroger that will publish results on their holiday season shopping. 

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Plug Power stock price has crashed into a bear market in the past few months as concerns about dilution and its growth continued. It has plunged by nearly 50% from its highest point in October, while the short interest has jumped to 25%. So, will this hydrogen company rebound?

Why Plug Power stock has crashed

Plug Power is a top American company focusing on hydrogen power. It creates hydrogen in its plants in New York, Georgia, and Texas. It also sells equipment such as electrolyzers to companies in the utility industry. 

The stock has plunged as concerns about its business accelerated. One major concern is that it has continued to dilute its shareholders, as its business is capital-intensive. 

Just recently, the management announced a new fundraising of $375 million. It raised these funds through convertible senior notes, which it used to pay its outstanding principal amount.

The company’s investors have gone through substantial dilution over the years. For one, data compiled by TradingView shows that the number of common outstanding shares has jumped to 1.2 billion, up sharply from 300 million in 2020.

This dilution happened as its losses accelerated. It made a net loss of over $2.1 billion in 2024, bringing its net loss in the last five years to over $5 billion. 

The most recent results showed that the company made a net loss of over $363 million in the third quarter, up sharply from $211 million in the same period in 2024. Its nine-month loss rose to $788 million from $769 million as the company recorded a $226 million charge in its Project Quantum Leap business.

The losses jumped even as its revenue rose modestly. Its revenue rose to $177 million from $173 million, with most of this growth happening in its power purchase agreements. Revenue of fuel delivered to customers rose to $35 million. This growth was offset by the sharp decline in its equipment sales.

Plug Power stock price has also crashed as more investors have continued to short it. Its short interest has jumped to 25%, meaning that these investors expect the stock to continue falling in the near term. 

Analysts have a mixed opinion on the company. Some analysts anticipate the stock to rebound this year. HC Wainwright’s analysts upgraded the target to $7, up by 253% from the current level. Canaccord Genuity’s George Gianarikas also expects it to rebound to $7.

On the other hand, a Morgan Stanley analyst slashed the target to $1.5, pointing to its dilution.

PLUG stock technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Plug Power share price has pulled back from a high of $4.57 in October to the current $2.2. It has remained above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since May last year. 

The stock also sits slightly above the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $1.56. It is also attempting to move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely forecast is that the stock rises modestly to the psychological point at $3 and then resumes the downtrend. A move below the ascending trendline will see it retest the ultimate support at $1.56.

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Palantir stock price has sunk in the past few days as the recent rally faded and as investors started booking profits amid valuation concerns. PLTR dropped for five consecutive days, reaching a low of $167, its lowest level since December 1 and ~20% from its highest point in 2025. 

Palantir stock has retreated amid valuation concerns

PLTR stock has pulled back and moved into a technical bear market as investors remain concerned about its valuation. These concerns have escalated as it moved above the average estimate by Wall Street analysts.

Data compiled by MarketBeat shows that the average estimate among 24 analysts is $172, lower than the all-time high of $207, which it hit in November last year. 

The most optimistic analyst is from Bank of America, who sees it rising to $255. Mizuho analysts see it reaching $205, while Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees it rising to $200. Most analysts, however, believe that the stock has more downside, with Northland Securities and RBC expecting it to drop to $18 and $50, respectively. 

Most analysts appreciate that Palantir is a solid business whose growth is accelerating. However, there are concerns about its elevated valuation and insider sales.

Palantir has a market capitalization of over $400 billion, a sizable figure for a company with annual revenue of $2.3 billion in 2024. Analysts expect the financial results to show that its revenue rose to $4.41 billion last year and $6.3 billion this year, representing 53% and 43%, respectively.

Palantir has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 231, much higher than that of other companies. The sector median is 24.80, while the valuation metric is much higher than other companies. 

A good example of this is Nvidia, which is experiencing a higher growth rate and has higher margin.  Palantir has a net income margin of 28%, much lower than Nvidia’s 53%. Yet, Nvidia has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 40. 

Palantir’s management points to its rule-of-40 valuation metric, which looks at its revenue growth and its profitability. In this case, the management noted that its rule-of-40 ratio stood at 114%, meaning that its business is balancing between its revenue and profitability well.

Palantir’s commercial growth is accelerating 

The most recent results showed that Palantir’s revenue rose by 63% in the third quarter, helped by its US commercial business, whose revenue rose by 121%.  The government revenue rose by 52% to $486 million as the US government revenue continued growing.

Palantir’s commercial business also continued doing well as it closed. 204 deals of at least $1 million and 91 deals of at least $5 million. This growth will likely continue as more companies embrace its technology to gain an edge on their competitors. Also, companies are using its technology to save costs, with Lear cutting costs by about $30 million annually.

The company has also recently announced a large partnership with Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia’s models will be available through AIP. 

Therefore, Palantir’s business will continue accelerating, with its annual revenue reaching the $10 billion milestone either in 2028 or 2029. The main issue, however, is that there is little way to justify the valuation as its net income will be about $3 billion, giving it a hypothetical forward price-to-earnings ratio of 133.

The valuation concerns also likely explain why top insiders have continued dumping that stock recently. Insiders sold shares worth over $849 million in the last 12 months, with their ownership falling to 12.93%. These insiders include people like David Glazer, Alexander Karp, Ryan Taylor, and Shyam Sankar.

Palantir stock price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the PLTR stock price has crashed from the year-to-date high of $207 to the current $167. This retreat was in line with our previous PLTR forecast.

A closer look shows that it has remained at the 50-day and the 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). 

Also, it has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. This pattern also has a close resemblance to a diamond, which is another reversal sign.

Therefore, there is a risk that it may drop in the coming weeks, potentially to the key support level at $150.

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