The Indian rupee continued its strong slump against the US dollar this week, reaching a fresh all-time low. The USD/INR exchange rate rose for five consecutive days, reaching a high of 91.30. It has jumped by 9% from its lowest level in April last year and 26% from its lowest point in 2022.

Indian rupee dives amid capital outflows from foreigners

The Indian rupee has been in a strong downward trajectory, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia. This performance happened even as the Indian economic growth remained strong.

Analysts believe that the sell-off is because of the rising dollar demand as foreigners sell Indian stocks. Data shows that foreign investors have sold over $2.7 billion in Indian shares this month. They dumped stocks worth over $19 billion last year.

One key reason for this is that relations between India and the United States have deteriorated during the Trump administration. The US president added a 50% tariff on all Indian goods, partly because of its ongoing business with Russia. Trump threatened to increase tariffs to 500% earlier this year.

At the same time, India has boosted its imports, leading to more demand for US dollars. Its monthly imports is worth between $63 billion and $76 billion. 

The ongoing Indian rupee slide is a sign that the central bank’s intervention measures have not worked. Its interventions are primarily through currency sales, including by selling currencies worth over $30 billion between July and November.

The USD/INR exchange rate also jumped after Donald Trump announced a major change to the H1-B visa program. He raised the fees to $100,000, a move that affected India, a country with a 70% market share.

The pair has also slipped because of the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The bank delivered four interest rate cuts in 2025, moving the benchmark rate from 6.75% in January to 5.25%. 

Still, India’s bond yields continued rising despite the rate cuts. The ten-year yield rose from 6.12% in July last year to 6.66% today. 

USD/INR forecast: technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to INR exchange rate has rebounded in the past few months. It has jumped from a low of 83.76 in May last year to the current 91.36. 

The pair has formed an ascending channel and is nearing the upper side. It has crossed the important resistance level at 91.065, its highest level in December.

The pair has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which have provided it with substantial support.

At the same time, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have continued rising this year. The RSI has moved to the overbought level of 73, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has remained above the zero line.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the USD/INR exchange rate continues rising, with the next key resistance level to watch being at 95. A move below the support at 91 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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The Tesco share price pulled back and moved into a correction, falling by 11% from its highest level in November last year. It was trading at 425p on Wednesday, down from the all-time high of 481p. This article explains what to expect as technicals point to more downside in the near term.

Tesco share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the TSCO stock price has pulled back in the past few months, moving from a high of 481p in November to the current 424p.

It has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 438p, while the Supertrend indicator has turned red. Additionally, the stock has moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bears are in control.

At the same time, the stock has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is characterized by a vertical line and a small ascending channel.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues falling, with the next key targets being at the 38.2% and the 50% retracement levels at 411p and 390p, respectively.

The bearish outlook will become invalid if the stock rebounds above the 23.6% retracement level at 438p. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the all-time high of 481p.

Tesco has strong fundamentals 

Tesco share price has pulled back in the past few months as investors booked profits after a strong surge that saw it rise from a low of 300p in April to a high of 481p in November.

The company still has some strong fundamentals, meaning that the bearish technicals will create a good entry point for long-term investors.

For one, the company will likely benefit from the rising inflation in the UK. Data released on Wednesday showed that the country’s retail price index (RPI) rose from minus 0.4% in November to 0.7% in December last year. This growth translated to an annual increase of 4.2%, its highest level in months. 

More data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December, while the core CPI remained at 3.2%.

Tesco benefits from a high inflation environment because of the perception that it offers cheap prices. Also, the company benefits from the relatively higher margins.

Tesco’s business is doing relatively well as evidenced by the recent third quarter and Christmas trading statement. The numbers showed that the company’s sales rose by 3.1% in the third quarter, with the Christmas sales rising by 2.4%.

The company has also continued to grow its market share, which has jumped to the highest level in over a decade, helped by investments across the shopping trip and its price match features. Also, it has benefited from the investments in online sales, which rose by 11%.

The company continues to reward its shareholders through buybacks and dividends. It is about to complete its £1.45 billion share buyback program, while the dividend yield has risen to 3.35%

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The S&P 500 Index has stalled near its all-time high as investors reflect on major news, including the ongoing earnings season and geopolitical events. It was trading at $6,9400, a few points below the all-time high of $6,986. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the SPX Index and its ETFs, like VOO and SPY.

Corporate earnings to impact the S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index will start the week on a low note as the stock market will be closed for Martin Luther King (MLK) Day. Traders will then react to corporate earnings when the market opens on Tuesday this week.

Data shows that 7% of all companies in the SPX, SPY, and VOO ETFs have already published their numbers. 79% of these companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, while 67% of them have had a positive revenue surprise.

The average earnings growth rate for these companies is 8.2%. If this is the final number, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of earnings growth in the United States. 

Many S&P 500 Index constituent companies will publish their numbers this week. The most notable of these will be Netflix, the biggest media company in the world, which will release its numbers on Tuesday.

Netflix will be in the spotlight because of the ongoing process of the Warner Bros. Discovery buyout. While Netflix has won the auction, itis  now battling Paramount, which is taking its case straight to shareholders. Netflix is considering increasing the cash portion of the deal.

The other large S&P 500 Index constituents that will release their numbers this week are Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab, P&G, GE Aerospace, Abbott, Intel, and Freeport-McMoran. 

US tariffs on European countries

The other notable catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs like SPY and VOO is the new trade war between the United States and some European countries. 

Donald Trump announced that he would place an additional 10% tariff on goods coming from key EU countries. Specifically, he focused on EU countries that have sent their military officials to Greenland, a semi-autonomous region he wants to acquire. 

The tariff will then go up to 20% in June if the acquisition is not completed. Europe is the biggest US trading partner, and these tariffs will likely have an impact on S&P 500 constituents. 

Supreme Court ruling on tariffs

The S&P 500 Index will react to the upcoming ruling of Donald Trump’s tariffs. This ruling is expected on January 20th, with most traders on Polymarket expecting the court to end the levies.

Such a move will be bullish for American stocks as companies will save billions of dollars annually. Some companies may also receive compensation if the court asks the government to issue refunds.

However, the potential benefits may be short-lived as Trump has some tools to implement the tariffs. 

Trump’s Federal Reserve nomination process

The other key catalyst for the index and its ETFs is the ongoing interview process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump is now considering either Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder.

According to Bloomberg, the candidacy of Rick Rieder is gaining momentum after his interview on Thursday last week. Just last week, he expressed concerns of losing Hassett from the economic council that he chairs because of his TV performance. 

The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs will also react to some notable macro data from the US, including pending home sales, personal consumption expenditure (PCE), and flash manufacturing and services PMIs. 

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Intuit stock price has nosedived this year, confirming a downward spiral that started in July last year when it peaked at $810 to a low of $545 today. It has plunged by 32% from its all-time high, erasing billions of dollars in value as the market capitalization fell from $226 billion to $150 billion. So, is this crash justified as it becomes a bargain?

Intuit stock price has crashed amid AI disruption fears

Intuit is a top software company that runs four companies: TurboTax, CreditKarma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp.

QuickBooks is the world’s biggest accounting software, while TurboTax is a major player in the tax filing industry, where it helps millions of customers a year.

Credit Karma, on the other hand, offers different services, including credit scores, credit monitoring, and insights. MailChimp offers email marketing services to thousands of companies globally, and has become its main laggard.

Intuit stock price has crashed in the past few months, mirroring the performance of other software companies like Adobe, ServiceNow, and Salesforce. 

These companies have plunged as investors predict that they will be disrupted by artificial intelligence tools, especially those made by Anthropic. Intuit’s biggest single-day crash happened earlier this year when Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.5, which brought more tools for coding, agents, and computer use.

Analysts and investors believe that these tools will replace some of the work offered by Intuit. Also, there is a likelihood that the company’s revenue and profitability growth will slow in the coming quarters.

Data compiled by MarketBeat shows that the average estimate among analysts is that the Intuit stock price is $794, down from $796, where it was three months ago.

Still, most analysts are bullish on the company, with 24 of them having a buy rating and 6 of them having a hold rating. None of the analysts tracking the company have a sell rating.

Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating of $720, while Cowen, Wolfe Research, BMO, and RBC have a buy rating with targets ranging between $730 and $820.

Intuit’s business is doing well 

The most recent results showed Intuit’s business continued doing well in the last quarter, a sign that the AI boom is not disrupting it so far.

Its revenue rose by 18% in the first quarter to $3.9 billion. Most of this revenue came from its Global Business Solutions, which made $3 billion. Its consumer revenue rose to $894 million, while its earnings-per-share rose to $1.59, up by 127% YoY.

The company expects that the annual revenue this year will be between $20.9 billion and $21.18 billion, while its operating income will be between $5.7 billion and $5.8 billion.

Meanwhile, data compiled by Yahoo Finance shows that the average revenue estimate for the current financial year will be $21.2 billion, up by 12% YoY, followed by $23 billion in the next financial year.

Intuit had become bargain, with its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23, lower than the sector median of 25 and its five-year average of 37. 

Intuit share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the INTU stock price has crashed in the past few months, moving from a high of $810 in July last year to the current $545. It recently plunged below the key support level at $637, its lowest levels on September 25, October 9,  and in November.

The stock has remained below all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have all moved below the oversold levels.

Therefore, the stock will likely remain under pressure in the near term and then rebound later this year.  It may drop to the key support at $500 and then rebound as investors buy the dip.

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The Nikkei 225 Index retreated by over 1.2% on Tuesday, continuing a downtrend that has been going on in the past few days. It retreated to a low of ¥52,930, down from the year-to-date high of ¥54,515. This retreat may continue if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a highly hawkish tone as Citi expects.

Citi expects three BoJ rate hikes this year

The Nikkei 225 Index dropped by over 1.2%, mirroring the performance of other top global indices that slipped amid the rising geopolitical issues between the United States and Europe.

It also retreated after a report by Citigroup predicted that the BoJ would maintain a highly hawkish tone this year. The bank expects that the bank will deliver three rate hikes this year, a move that would push the benchmark rate from 0.75% to 1.50%.

Citi sees the bank hiking rates this high because of the deteriorating Japanese yen, which has been in a freefall in the past few months. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to a multi-year high of 159.47, up by nearly 14% from its lowest level in 2025. A Citi analyst said:

“Put simply, the yen’s weakness is being driven by negative real interest rates. The BOJ has no choice other than to address this if it wants to reverse the exchange rate’s direction.”

The hawkish BoJ view has led to a surge in Japan bond yields. Data shows that the ten-year yield jumped to 2.32%, its highest level in decades and much higher than the pandemic low of minus 0.27%. The five-year yield has jumped to 1.70%, its highest point in years, while the 40-year soared to 4%

In most cases, the stock market tends to underperform when a central bank is highly hawkish and when bond yields are on a strong upward trajectory. Indeed, there are chances that Japanese institutions will start owning investments from abroad into fixed-income assets at home. This view will accelerate if the five-year and ten-year yield moves above inflation. 

Japanese election ahead

Meanwhile, there is still uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Japanese election scheduled for February. Sanae Takaichi called the election so that she can get a proper mandate. 

At the same time, her election pledges, including suspending a 8% food levy risks widening the fiscal gap and leading to higher bond yields. Indeed, yields have jumped sharply since she unveiled her $135 billion stimulus package.

On the positive side, Japan stocks may benefit from the upcoming Supreme Court decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs. Most analysts believe that the court will decide to end these tariffs, a move that will benefit Japanese companies that sell to the United States.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of ¥48,160 in November to the current ¥52,990. 

It is now aiming to retest the key support level at ¥52,656, its highest swing on November 4. A break-and-retest is one of the most common continuation signs in technical analysis.

Therefore, the index will likely remain in a tight range in the coming days and then resume the upward trend.

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Pop Mart’s share price jumped by over 8% on Tuesday, its best performance in five months, as investors cheered its new share buyback program. It rose to an intraday high of H$ 198, up substantially from this month’s low of H$174. It remains 42% below its highest point this year.

Pop Mart share price jumps on a new buyback

The main reason why the Pop Mart stock price rose is that the company announced a big share buyback. It repurchased shares worth $32 million, its first buyback since February 2024.

The share buyback is a sign that the management believes that the company is undervalued. It is also meant to boost the stock performance after it crashed by over 40% from its highest point in 2025.

Analysts believe that the company has more resources to deploy to boost its shareholder returns this year, thanks to the robust Labubu sales in 2025.

Labubu challenges remain 

Pop Mart, a popular toy manufacturer, made headlines because of Labubu, a stuffed toy that went viral globally, leading to a surge in sales and its stock price.

The most recent results showed that its revenue surged by 205% in the last financial year to over RMB 13 billion. Its gross profit rose by 234% to RMB 9.76 billion, while the net profit jumped to RMB 4.5 billion, with its net profit margin rising to 33.7% from the previous 21.2%.

The strong revenue growth helped to boost its balance sheet, with the total assets rising to RMB 21.3 billion.

However, the main challenge that the company faces is that there are signs that the Labubu craze is fading. One of these signs is that its sales were disappointing during last year’s Black Friday event in the United States.

Another report by YipitData showed that Labubu’s North American revenue growth slowed to 424% in the quarter to December, much lower than in the previous quarters.

As such, there is a likelihood that Labubu will prove to be a fad similar to Beanie Babies, which became popular in the 1990s only for its popularity to crash.

At the same time, there are lingering concerns on whether its push to the entertainment industry will pay off over time. It opened Pop Land, a large theme park in Shanghai, and is reportedly working with Sony on a Labubu movie.

Also, the company is working on developing other characters and expanding its business abroad. Some analysts believe that all these initiatives will help the stock to bounce back this year. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that:

“Some profit-taking and short-term correction are normal, but pushing the stock down to trough valuation appears ‘overly preemptive’ — and unjustified.”

Pop Mart stock price technical analysis 

Pop-Mart stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Pop Mart stock price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months.

It formed a giant head-and-shoulders pattern whose neckline was at $233. A H&S is one of the most popular bearish patterns.

The index has formed a descending channel, and the current jump was meant to retest the upper side. It has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues falling in the near term and then rebound later this year. If this happens, it may drop to the key support level at $150.

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Wise share price rose sharply on Tuesday after the British fintech giant published encouraging financial results and maintained its focus on executing a dual-listing. It rose by nearly 13%, reaching its highest level since November 25.

Wise business is doing well despite rising competition 

Wise, formerly known as TransferWise, is a top British company that helps users to send money abroad. It also runs a platform that enables customers to have multi-currency bank accounts, making it popular among companies with international workers.

The financial results published today showed that its business continued doing well in the third quarter of 2026, even as it reduced its costs. It also continued adding thousands of companies during the quarter, with its business account users rising by 25% to 542,000.

Wise served over 11 million customers during the quarter, with its newly launched travel card in India having over 75,000 customers within a month. Additionally, Wise account deposits jumped by 34% to over £27.5 billion.

Wise’s underlying income rose by 21% to £424 million, a trend that the management expects will accelerate in the future. Additionally, the management expects to complete the dual-listing in the United States in the second half of this year. The CEO said:

“We expect to complete our dual listing in the first half of 2026, which will further increase our profile in the US as we remain focused on accelerating global growth and becoming the network for the world’s money.”

Wise expects to hit the profit-before-tax margin of between 13% and 16% this year. Additionally, the company is aiming to receive a national banking charter in the United States as it seeks to partner with over 4,000 banks in the country.

Still, the Wise share price remains much lower than last year’s high of 1,223p. This retreat happened because of the rising costs as the company continues hiring, with its US employees rising to over 700.

The company is also facing substantial competition from other fintech companies like Remitly, Revolut, TransferGo, OFX, and PayPal.

Most importantly, the biggest competition will likely come from the stablecoin industry, which is seeing strong growth. Stablecoins are widely known for their low costs, with most transactions costing cents to complete.

Wise share price technical analysis 

Wise stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Wise stock price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months, moving from a high of 1,223p in June last year to a low of 794p. 

The decline mirrored the performance of other fintech companies like PayPal, Block, and Fiserv.

Wise then bounced back and moved to a high of 943p, its highest level since November 13. It moved above the important resistance level at 904p, its highest swing in December last year.

The stock has moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 898p and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues to rise, with the next key target being at 1,011p, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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