SoftBank Group returned to profit in the December quarter as gains tied to OpenAI lifted its Vision Fund, helping counter losses across other technology bets.

The Japanese investment firm reported a sharp rise in the value of its OpenAI stake, even as investments in Coupang, Didi, and ByteDance weighed on performance.

The Vision Fund recorded a $2.4 billion gain in SoftBank’s fiscal third quarter, which ended in December.

That supported a broader turnaround in group earnings, although the company still fell short of analyst expectations.

The results underline how central OpenAI has become to SoftBank’s portfolio strategy as it deepens its exposure to artificial intelligence.

OpenAI valuation jump drives gains

SoftBank said it booked a $4.2 billion gain on its OpenAI investment during the quarter. Over the April to December period, the cumulative gain on OpenAI reached $17 billion.

The group has invested more than $30 billion in the ChatGPT developer and owns roughly 11% of the company.

The jump in valuation helped offset declines in other listed holdings, including South Korean e-commerce firm Coupang and Chinese ride-hailing app Didi.

Losses were also affected by a markdown in SoftBank’s stake in TikTok parent ByteDance.

Despite those setbacks, the Vision Fund posted a net gain for the quarter.

Net profit returns despite estimate miss

SoftBank Group reported a fiscal third-quarter net profit of 248.6 billion yen, about $1.6 billion. That marked a reversal from a loss in the same period a year earlier.

However, the result came in below analyst forecasts. Even so, the return to profitability reflects the scale of the uplift in OpenAI’s valuation and its impact on the wider portfolio.

SoftBank has positioned its Vision Fund around artificial intelligence companies it believes can become category leaders.

The strategy aims to anchor the group at the centre of AI development, with OpenAI as a flagship investment.

Funding bets and asset sales

Investors have been watching how SoftBank will finance further commitments, particularly as OpenAI remains unprofitable.

The company has been selling down other holdings to channel capital into its AI strategy.

In October, SoftBank sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion. Between June and December, it also disposed of $12.73 billion worth of T-Mobile stock.

The group has taken out loans backed by other assets, including chip designer Arm.

At the same time, competition in AI is intensifying, with Google and Anthropic emerging as major rivals to OpenAI.

AI computing segment takes shape

SoftBank said it has created a new reporting division called the AI Computing Segment.

This unit includes Arm, along with semiconductor businesses Graphcore and Ampere, both acquired by the group.

The segment recorded a loss of 91.8 billion yen in the nine months ending in December.

SoftBank attributed this to higher headcount and acquisition-related costs linked to Ampere.

The company views Arm and its chip assets as central to expanding into areas such as robotics, driverless cars, and data centres.

SoftBank shares rose this week after strong results from its telecommunications unit and a rally in Arm’s stock price, supporting investor sentiment.

The post SoftBank Vision Fund boosted by OpenAI surge as ByteDance and Didi drag appeared first on Invezz

After years of explosive growth, China’s electric-vehicle industry is entering a more complex and uncertain phase.

Domestic demand is cooling, competition is intensifying and policymakers are recalibrating incentives, even as Chinese carmakers push aggressively into foreign markets to sustain momentum.

The shift marks a turning point for the world’s largest EV ecosystem, which has been built on generous subsidies, rapid technological advances and an expanding middle class.

Recent data suggest that the industry is no longer in a straight-line expansion but is transitioning into a period defined by adjustment, consolidation and geopolitical friction.

Domestic demand shows signs of fatigue

Retail sales of new-energy vehicles — including battery electric and hybrid cars — fell 20% year-on-year to 596,000 units in January, the China Passenger Car Association announced on Thursday.

The decline was the first in almost two years and coincided with a broader slowdown in the auto market, where passenger-car sales dropped 14% from a year earlier and 32% from December.

The cooling demand reflects multiple pressures.

The expiration of tax exemptions introduced more than a decade ago has removed a key incentive for buyers, while lingering economic uncertainty and soft consumer confidence have dampened spending on big-ticket items such as cars.

Industry bodies have sought to frame the downturn as cyclical rather than structural.

The CPCA described the current phase as a “normal adjustment,” arguing that short-term volatility does not undermine the industry’s long-term trajectory.

Yet analysts widely expect demand to remain subdued as the effects of subsidies and tax breaks fade.

Even leading manufacturers are feeling the impact.

BYD, which recently overtook Tesla as the world’s largest producer of battery-powered vehicles, reported a roughly 30% drop in domestic sales in January.

Tesla, meanwhile, sold just over 69,000 China-made vehicles to Chinese customers and exported more than 50,000 units from its Shanghai plant, highlighting the increasingly export-oriented nature of production.

Exports become the growth engine

As competition intensifies and margins shrink at home, Chinese automakers are increasingly looking abroad.

Exports of passenger cars rose 52% year-on-year in January, while shipments of new-energy vehicles more than doubled, underscoring how overseas markets have become critical to sustaining growth.

In 2025, China exported 8.32 million vehicles, up 30% from the previous year.

Exports of EVs and hybrids surged 70% to 3.43 million units, far outpacing growth in conventional vehicles.

The expansion has been driven by cost advantages, efficient supply chains and growing acceptance of Chinese brands in emerging markets.

Major players are doubling down on global ambitions.

BYD aims to export 1.3 million vehicles this year, while Geely has set a target of more than 50% growth in overseas sales.

In a historic pivot, Chinese automakers’ foreign supply chain investments surpassed domestic spending for the first time in 2025, US think tank Rhodium group said.

This landmark shift underscores a strategic, long-term commitment to establishing a permanent footprint in global markets.

Emerging markets reshape the map

Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have become key battlegrounds.

The biggest destinations are those with “open and friendly” policies, Yichao Zhang, an automotive partner at AlixPartners, told Rest of World.

In Thailand, Chinese brands have surged from single-digit market share to nearly 20% of passenger-car sales in just four years, challenging long-established Japanese dominance.

Indonesia has entered China’s top export markets after introducing policies that favour locally built EVs.

Mexico and the United Arab Emirates were among the fastest-growing destinations for Chinese EV exports last year, with Mexico selling about 221,000 vehicles and the UAE about 192,000, while factories in Brazil and Argentina underline the push into Latin America.

At the same time, trade tensions have complicated expansion plans: BYD paused construction in Mexico after tariffs were raised sharply, illustrating the fragility of global ambitions.

Chinese manufacturers remain largely shut out of some of the world’s biggest auto markets.

High tariffs and national security concerns have restricted access to the United States and India, while Japan remains a difficult market to penetrate.

“The most important factor that determines the success of Chinese EV makers’ overseas business is geopolitics, including tariff, import-export regulations, and supply chain issues,” Zhang said.

Sino-European trade diplomacy over EVs

Europe has emerged as both an opportunity and a challenge.

Chinese firms doubled their share of European car sales to about 6% last year, with much higher penetration in countries such as Norway, where electric vehicles dominate new registrations.

Yet their presence remains limited in core markets such as Germany and Slovakia.

The trade environment is evolving.

The European Commission recently approved a tariff exemption for a Volkswagen model made in China, setting a precedent that could open the door for more negotiated arrangements.

China has responded by signalling flexibility, allowing its manufacturers to negotiate directly with European authorities on price commitments and quotas.

Beijing’s shift reflects a broader recalibration of strategy, as it seeks to balance the interests of its manufacturers with the realities of global trade barriers.

The outcome of these negotiations could shape the trajectory of Chinese EV exports for years to come.

Britain as a testing ground for Chinese brands

The United Kingdom has emerged as a relatively open market for Chinese brands.

Chery’s rapid expansion in the UK — through brands such as Omoda, Jaecoo and the newly announced Lepas line — illustrates how Chinese automakers are exploiting regulatory gaps and consumer openness.

With no tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and a growing appetite for affordable electric models, Britain has become a key testing ground for Chinese strategies in developed markets.

Industry data show that Chinese brands are gaining share, challenging established European and Japanese competitors.

A sector at a crossroads

The broader picture is one of transition.

China’s EV industry is no longer driven solely by domestic subsidies and explosive growth but by global competition, geopolitical constraints and a maturing consumer market.

The slowdown in sales may be temporary, but it signals that the era of effortless expansion is over.

For Chinese automakers, survival increasingly depends on their ability to compete abroad while navigating trade barriers and political sensitivities.

For the global auto industry, China’s push outward represents both a competitive threat and a catalyst for change in how electric vehicles are produced, priced and regulated worldwide.

The post China’s EV turning point: domestic demand slumps as exports surge appeared first on Invezz

The South Korean market index, the Kospi, has more than doubled over the past year.

A market long associated with low valuations and conglomerate discounts has turned into one of the strongest performers globally.

But this market rally has not been broad or random. It has been driven by a tight cluster of technology names tied to artificial intelligence and a surge in domestic investor activity that few global allocators fully appreciate.

South Korea is no longer just an export story linked to global trade cycles. It is now at the centre of a specific profit pool inside the AI value chain.

What changed in Korea’s market

For more than a decade, South Korean equities traded at persistent discounts to global peers.

Corporate governance concerns, low returns on equity, and heavy dependence on cyclical exports kept valuations subdued.

The Kospi often traded at single digit forward earnings multiples.

However, the broad South Korean market index has more than doubled within the past twelve months, powered largely by semiconductor heavyweights.

Retail participation surged as a result, with brokerage cash deposits reaching roughly 109 trillion won, while margin loans climbed above 30 trillion won, both record levels.

At the same time, the Korean government introduced capital gains tax exemptions effective January 2026 for investors who sell overseas holdings and reinvest domestically for at least one year, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

The policy was designed to encourage repatriation of funds, and Korean households hold around $170 billion in US equities.

A structural earnings story met strong local liquidity and explicit policy support.

Why memory is at the centre of the AI cycle

Artificial intelligence is often discussed in terms of software models and cloud platforms.

The less visible part sits inside the server racks, because AI workloads require enormous amounts of high-bandwidth memory.

As models grow larger, memory density and speed become critical bottlenecks.

South Korea dominates this segment. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are two of the three global leaders in advanced DRAM and high-bandwidth memory.

SK hynix has positioned itself as a key supplier of HBM3E and next generation HBM4 products, with company guidance pointing to continued tight supply conditions through 2026 and 2027.

Samsung has reported improving yields on HBM4 and is moving toward mass production.

This is not a vague technology narrative. It is a supply and demand imbalance.

AI server deployment has accelerated faster than memory capacity expansion.

Building new advanced fabrication lines takes time and capital. When demand rises faster than supply, pricing power follows.

For memory producers, that translates into operating leverage.

In recent quarters, earnings revisions for these companies have reflected stronger pricing assumptions.

The rally is tied to rising profit expectations, not only multiple expansion.

Which companies are driving returns

What investors need to note is that the index performance has indeed been concentrated.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix account for a large share of the Kospi’s market capitalisation. When they move, the index moves.

SK Hynix has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI memory cycle. Investors are pricing in sustained HBM demand and improved margins.

Samsung’s broader exposure across memory, logic and foundry adds another layer, although its memory division remains central to the current story.

Beyond these giants, smaller equipment suppliers, substrate makers, and materials companies listed on the Kosdaq have seen sharp moves.

Their revenues depend on capital expenditure by the large memory producers. When memory makers expand capacity or upgrade technology nodes, these upstream suppliers benefit.

The rally has not been evenly distributed across banks, consumer stocks or traditional industrial exporters. It is a technology and semiconductor driven move.

The role of domestic investors

One of the most distinctive features of the Korean market is the scale and behaviour of its retail investors.

Individual investors have long been active participants, often using leverage.

In 2025, Koreans bought a record $32 billion of US equities on a net basis, according to Korea Securities Depository data.

Now there are early signs of rotation back into domestic champions.

Retail investors have increased purchases of Samsung and SK hynix, while foreigners have at times been net sellers during global risk off episodes, according to LSEG data.

High brokerage cash balances provide dry powder. However, record margin loans also increase volatility.

When sentiment is strong, leverage amplifies gains. When global tech stocks wobble, the same mechanism can accelerate declines.

For US and EU investors, this dynamic means that price swings in Korea can be sharper than in more institutionally dominated markets. Liquidity is deep in large caps, but flows can reverse quickly.

How this affects US and European portfolios

The Korean surge does not replace US technology leadership. Nvidia, Microsoft and large US cloud providers remain central to AI infrastructure.

However, the memory segment represents a distinct profit pool. Investors seeking exposure to the hardware layer of AI may find Korean names offer a different risk return profile.

Valuations in Korea have historically traded below US peers. Even after the rally, the Kospi’s forward price-to-earnings ratio remains lower than those of major US indices.

Part of that discount reflects structural factors such as governance and capital allocation practices. Part of it reflects currency risk and geopolitical considerations on the Korean peninsula.

For European investors, Asian equities provide geographic diversification and exposure to the semiconductor supply chain without concentrating solely on US mega caps.

For US investors, adding Korean memory producers introduces currency exposure to the won and different regulatory frameworks, but also direct access to companies with global market share in a strategic industry.

There is also a broader implication. If capital continues to flow toward hardware suppliers, US software and platform stocks may face relative valuation pressure, even if their earnings remain strong.

The market often rotates within themes rather than abandoning them.

How durable is the current momentum

The core of the Korean rally rests on one assumption. AI-driven memory demand will remain elevated long enough for producers to earn strong margins before new capacity catches up.

If hyperscale data centre investment continues at the current pace, that assumption holds.

If spending slows or supply ramps faster than expected, pricing could soften.

Competition from Micron adds another variable, although a three-player market can still sustain rational behaviour.

Domestic leverage is another factor. Record margin loans can magnify both gains and drawdowns.

Policy incentives may keep local participation high, yet they do not eliminate global risk.

South Korea’s equity market has moved from a discount story to an earnings momentum story in less than two years.

Investors who understand that the rally is tied to a specific bottleneck in the AI value chain can approach it with clearer expectations.

The market is rewarding companies that sit at the core of a hardware constraint. As long as that constraint persists, Korea remains central to the global AI trade.

The post What investors need to know about the South Korean market rally appeared first on Invezz

The optimism in crypto that followed Donald Trump’s election in November 2024 has all but faded as Bitcoin takes a plunge, falling 45% from its October high.

On the regulatory front, the standoff between the banking industry and crypto stakeholders over stablecoin yields in the CLARITY Act is being closely monitored.

Lastly, AI continues to dominate headlines with its feared disruptions. Invezz spoke to Bryan Benson, CEO of Aurum, a financial technology company using AI and blockchain for neobanking, wealth management, and crypto trading, for his commentary.

Benson, a former Binance managing director who steered its Latin American operations, opens up about what is inhibiting AI’s growth in crypto, why the conflict over stablecoin yields is “a competition for deposits dressed up as consumer protection,” and why Bitcoin’s crash is a familiar pattern rather than a structural reset.

Excerpts:

Bryan Benson

How building Binance in Latin America helped in building Aurum

Invezz: You helmed Binance’s Latin American operations. How did that experience help in building Aurum?

I spent years building Binance’s presence across Latin America, growing the user base from a few hundred thousand to tens of millions.

I set up fiat on-ramps, navigated local regulators, and figured out what people needed from a crypto platform.

You learn things on the ground that you never pick up from headquarters.

The same problem showed up in every market. Users had access but no real tools.

They were trading against algorithms with nothing but a price chart and gut instinct.

Retail infrastructure hadn’t caught up with what institutions were running. Aurum gave me the opportunity to build for that problem directly.

We took everything I learned about scaling in complex markets and paired it with the AI execution layer that retail never had.

The goal from day one was to give everyday users the same systematic advantages that professional desks take for granted.

Level of AI in crypto going up but adoption getting stalled by these factors

Invezz: How has the use of AI in crypto trading evolved, and what is standing in the way of its even more widespread adoption?

Five years ago, AI in crypto meant basic bots running grid strategies on a single exchange. 

Now you have systems scanning thousands of order books, parsing on-chain data, and executing across multiple venues in milliseconds.

Algorithmic systems already handle over 60% of volume in US equities and over 70% in FX. Crypto is catching up fast.

Adoption still stalls in a few places. Most AI models train on historical data, and crypto regimes shift quickly.

A system that performed well in a trending market can fall apart when conditions flip. 

Then there’s the black-box problem. Users and regulators both want to understand how decisions get made, and most systems can’t explain themselves.

The biggest obstacle is the “set and forget” mindset. AI needs supervision, parameter tuning, and human judgment on macro shifts.

People who treat it like a slot machine get slot-machine results.

Blocking stablecoin yield to unbanked people is gatekeeping

Invezz: You are a champion of financial inclusion. The CLARITY Act under consideration is being held up because of one sticky point — whether crypto platforms should be able to pay customers yield or interest on their stablecoin balances. What is your view?

The whole fight over stablecoin yield is a competition for deposits dressed up as consumer protection.

The banking lobby argues that yield-bearing stablecoins will drain deposits from the traditional system. 

Standard Chartered estimates $500 billion could move out of banks and into stablecoins by 2028. That is a sign that the real concern here is competition, not financial stability.

The GENIUS Act already blocks issuers from paying yield directly. The Senate draft of the CLARITY Act goes further and tries to close the loopholes around third-party rewards too.

Over 125 crypto companies pushed back for a reason. Coinbase pulled its support. The White House meeting on February 3rd ended without a deal.

For the 1.4 billion unbanked people worldwide, stablecoin yield is one of the few ways to earn anything on their savings.

Blocking it to protect deposit bases at regulated banks is exactly the kind of gatekeeping crypto was built to bypass.

How can AI promote financial inclusion

Invezz: How does AI tie into your vision of greater financial inclusion?

Traditional finance locks people out through complexity.

You need a credit score to borrow, a bank account to save, and enough financial literacy to navigate products that were designed for people who already have money.

AI strips most of that away.

At Aurum, the AI handles execution, risk management, and yield optimization without asking the user to understand how any of it works.

Someone in Lagos or São Paulo sees a dashboard with results. The flash loan arbitrage, the DEX routing, the position sizing — it all stays buried in the infrastructure.

The other piece is credit.

AI can assess risk using on-chain behavior, wallet history, and transaction patterns instead of traditional credit scores that don’t exist in most emerging markets.

That opens lending and borrowing to people the legacy system never bothered to serve.

On BTC collapse: Trump bump erased but its not a structural reset

Invezz: Bitcoin has been in a free fall. Are investors losing confidence in near-term profit expectations? Are we in a temporary downturn or a structural reset?

Bitcoin is down roughly 45% from its October high and just had its worst single-day drop since the FTX collapse. 

The entire Trump bump has been erased.

US spot ETFs that bought 46,000 bitcoin this time last year are now net sellers, with over $3 billion in outflows in January alone.

That’s institutional money heading for the exits, and it drags sentiment with it.

The “digital gold” narrative took a serious hit. Gold is up around 24% since October, while bitcoin dropped by half.

Investors who bought the hedge thesis are watching it fail in real time.

I don’t think this is a structural reset, though. Bitcoin has dropped 74% before and recovered.

The 200-day moving average is around $58,000 to $60,000, which lines up with the realized price. We’ve seen this pattern play out in every cycle.

Higher USDT likely but floor is closer than most think

Invezz: At the same time, USDT dominance breached the 7% mark a few days ago. Do you think it could go higher (which means BTC will move even lower)?

USDT dominance hit 7.4% on February 2nd, the highest level in two years.

When capital rotates out of volatile assets and into stablecoins, dominance goes up. When confidence returns, it comes back down.

The 2022 market bottom coincided with USDT dominance around 9.5%, and we’re not there yet.

Stablecoin inflows to exchanges dropped from $9.7 billion monthly in October to negative flows at the start of this year.

That tells you capital is still leaving risk assets and parking in USDT.

Can it go higher? Yes. Thin liquidity, ongoing ETF outflows, and a broader selloff across tech stocks and precious metals all point in that direction. 

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI dipped below 30 for the first time since mid-2022, and historically, that has preceded bottoms forming within three to six months.

So higher USDT dominance is likely, but we’re probably closer to the floor than most people think.

On USDT as safe haven for crypto and concentration risks

Invezz: Is USDT becoming the real safe haven of crypto markets? Is the crypto ecosystem dangerously dependent on a single private stablecoin issuer?

USDT dominates stablecoin trading, stablecoin savings, and stablecoin user growth by wide margins.

When the market sold off in Q4, Tether’s market cap actually grew while its closest competitors shrank or collapsed. 

So yes, USDT is the safe haven. That’s not really up for debate at this point.

The crypto ecosystem runs on a single private company that still faces scrutiny over reserve transparency.

If confidence in Tether ever cracked, the damage would cascade through every exchange and every trading pair that uses it as a base. 

No competitor matches Tether’s $140B in circulation. Circle’s USDC sits at $50B. The concentration risk persists.

How AI trading systems are adding to the rush into stablecoins

Invezz: Are AI trading systems also accelerating the shift into stablecoins during market stress?

Yes. Bots trade on fixed rules: if Bitcoin falls 8% in an hour, sell. If portfolio volatility exceeds 15%, reduce exposure.

The algo executes immediately. Most crypto bots exit through BTC/USDT because Tether offers the deepest order books.

A $2M position can unwind in seconds without slippage. The bot sells everything volatile, sits in Tether.

When volatility drops back under the threshold, it re-enters.

A human trader might hesitate, hold through a dip, or wait for confirmation. An algorithm reads the order-book shift and executes in milliseconds. 

Now picture thousands of bots hitting the same conditions at roughly the same time. The rush into stablecoins compounds on itself, and the selloff gets steeper.

The post Interview: Aurum CEO Bryan Benson on AI in crypto and Bitcoin crash appeared first on Invezz

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds extended their recent inflow streak to a third consecutive session, with this week’s gains nearly offsetting last week’s losses, even as Bitcoin prices remained under pressure and investor sentiment stayed cautious.

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $166.6 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

This brought total inflows for the week to $311.6 million, nearly matching the $318 million in net outflows recorded last week.

The rebound follows three consecutive weeks of losses, during which Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $3 billion in assets, reflecting sustained institutional caution amid heightened market volatility.

ETF momentum improves despite price weakness

The recent improvement in fund flows has come even as Bitcoin prices have continued to decline.

Data from CoinGecko showed that Bitcoin has fallen about 13% over the past seven days and briefly slipped below $67,000 on Wednesday.

Despite the price weakness, analysts said the pickup in ETF inflows suggests that some investors may be starting to rebuild exposure at lower levels.

Earlier this week, market observers noted signs of a potential shift in sentiment, citing that the pace of selling across crypto exchange-traded products has slowed in recent sessions.

SoSoValue data also showed modest inflows into spot altcoin ETFs. Funds tracking Ether added about $14 million on Tuesday, while XRP and Solana products attracted $3.3 million and $8.4 million, respectively.

Although the inflows remain small compared with earlier peaks, the broad-based nature of the recent buying could indicate tentative stabilisation across digital asset investment products.

Bitcoin struggles to hold key levels

Bitcoin slipped again during Asian trading on Wednesday, falling below $67,000 as investors turned cautious ahead of key US economic data.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading about 2.6% lower at $67,126.7 by early European hours.

The decline followed a short-lived rebound from last week’s lows near $60,000.

While prices had briefly moved back above $70,000, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain gains, highlighting fragile market sentiment.

Traders said the recent trading range reflects uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions and the durability of demand following weeks of heavy liquidation and institutional outflows.

Focus shifts to jobs and inflation data

Market participants are now focused on a series of US economic releases that could shape expectations for monetary policy and influence risk appetite.

The delayed January employment report, originally scheduled for last week but postponed due to a brief government shutdown, is due later on Wednesday.

Economists are forecasting that nonfarm payrolls rose by about 70,000 in January, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.4%.

Later in the week, investors will turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index release on Friday, which is expected to provide further insight into inflation trends.

Both reports are seen as critical for assessing the outlook for interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the central bank to hold rates steady until at least June, following three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025.

Traditionally, expectations of looser monetary policy and lower interest rates tend to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments.

However, this cycle has diverged from historical patterns. Despite recent rate cuts, Bitcoin has remained subdued, suggesting that other forces are offsetting the potential benefits of easier financial conditions.

Market participants have identified reduced global liquidity, weaker institutional participation, and waning speculative interest as key factors affecting digital asset prices.

The post Bitcoin ETFs extend inflow streak despite broader crypto selloff appeared first on Invezz

India has asked its state-owned refiners to consider increasing purchases of US and Venezuelan crude oil following a trade agreement that the Trump administration said included a pledge to halt imports of Russian barrels, reported Bloomberg, citing refinery executives familiar with the matter.

The development places India’s energy procurement strategy under renewed global scrutiny as policymakers attempt to balance diplomatic commitments, supply diversification, and refinery economics.

New Delhi has not publicly confirmed any formal commitment to end Russian purchases, maintaining that energy security remains its primary objective.

Washington later moved to cut tariffs on certain Indian exports.

New Delhi has not publicly confirmed any formal pledge to halt Russian purchases, maintaining that energy security and diversification remain the guiding principles of its procurement strategy.

The recalibration reflects both political signalling and commercial realities.

Refiners are weighing costs, refinery configurations, and freight economics as they reassess supply options.

Russian oil uncertainty

The debate intensified after Trump linked tariff reductions to India’s agreement to stop buying Russian oil.

According to US statements, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged no further Russian crude purchases as part of the broader trade arrangement. India has not echoed that language and has instead stressed diversification.

Refiners are now seeking clarity on future Russian flows. While existing long-term contracts continue, buyers are cautious about fresh spot purchases until policy direction becomes clearer.

The uncertainty has placed India’s oil-buying under international scrutiny, even as officials reiterate that procurement decisions are guided by national interest and supply security.

Push for US grades

State refiners have been urged to prioritise US crude when issuing spot tenders.

American grades are typically light and sweet, meaning lower sulfur content.

That creates technical limitations, as several Indian refining units are optimised for medium or heavier crude streams.

Industry executives estimate Indian processors could absorb around 20 million tons of US crude annually, equivalent to roughly 400,000 barrels per day. That would exceed last year’s daily imports of about 225,000 barrels, according to Kpler data.

Freight costs complicate the picture. Long-haul shipments from the US Gulf Coast increase transport expenses, limiting the cost-effectiveness of larger volumes.

Alternatives from West Africa and Kazakhstan remain commercially attractive due to shorter shipping distances.

Venezuelan supply re-emerges

Venezuela has also returned to the conversation. The Trump administration earlier asserted control over the country’s energy industry and tapped trading houses Vitol Group and Trafigura Group to market Venezuelan crude internationally.

Vitol has held discussions with refiners to gauge interest in renewed flows.

Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., recently purchased about 4 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.

Experts say that figure represents the practical monthly ceiling of heavy, sour Venezuelan crude that these refiners can process.

Unlike US grades, Venezuelan crude is heavier and more compatible with certain Indian refinery configurations.

Supplies are being arranged through private negotiations rather than public tenders.

India’s evolving crude mix reflects how trade diplomacy, refinery engineering, and freight economics are converging.

While diversification remains the stated objective, the scale and pace of change will depend on cost competitiveness, logistical feasibility, and clearer policy signals in the months ahead.

The post India nudges refiners to buy more US, Venezuelan crude after trade deal appeared first on Invezz

Britain’s competition watchdog has secured new commitments from Apple and Google to change how their mobile app stores operate, as the UK rolls out stronger oversight of dominant digital platforms.

The Competition and Markets Authority said the steps would make app review processes fairer and more transparent for developers, marking an early use of its expanded powers.

With almost all smartphones in Britain running on Apple’s iOS or Google’s Android systems, the regulator sees app stores and browsers as critical control points that shape competition across the wider digital economy.

Strategic market status takes effect

The CMA designated Apple and Google as holding strategic market status in smartphones in October.

That classification gives the regulator the authority to require specific changes from companies whose services have entrenched positions that can influence market outcomes.

In the UK, app distribution and default browsing on mobile devices are almost entirely controlled by the two firms through their operating systems.

The regulator has said this level of control allows Apple and Google to shape which apps reach users, how services evolve, and the commercial terms developers must accept.

The new commitments are positioned as initial steps within this tougher regulatory framework, rather than a full resolution of competition concerns.

Changes to app review processes

Under the agreement, both companies have committed to reviewing apps in a way that is fair, objective, and transparent.

The CMA said this should give developers clearer expectations around how decisions are made and reduce uncertainty during the approval process.

Developers will also have improved avenues to raise issues linked to app assessments.

The regulator has previously highlighted concerns that opaque review systems can delay launches, discourage innovation, and disadvantage smaller developers that lack the resources to navigate complex approval processes.

Broader access to platform features

As part of the commitments, developers will be able to request access to more of Apple’s iOS features to build competing products.

The CMA pointed to areas such as digital wallets and live translation, where expanded access could allow developers to offer alternatives to Apple’s own services.

The regulator has argued that restrictions on technical access can reinforce platform dominance by limiting how rival products function on smartphones.

By opening parts of iOS more widely, the CMA aims to reduce dependency on Apple-controlled services while encouraging competition within the ecosystem.

Regulator focus and company responses

The CMA has repeatedly warned that dominance in app stores and browsers enables platform owners to exert influence over content, services, and technological development.

It said the commitments represent important early progress under its new digital competition regime, while signalling that further intervention remains possible if the measures fall short.

Apple said it faces strong competition in every market where it operates and works to deliver products, services, and user experience.

It added that the commitments allow it to continue advancing privacy and security features while supporting opportunities for developers.

Google said it believes its current developer practices are already fair, objective, and transparent, but welcomed the chance to address the CMA’s concerns collaboratively.

The post Apple and Google agree to app store changes after UK competition pressure appeared first on Invezz

At current levels, gold reflects both fear-driven flows and structural repricing with a move towards $6,000 looks realistic in the near future, says B2PRIME Group’s Eugenia Mykuliak. 

Invezz spoke with Mykuliak, founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, in an exclusive interview to discuss price trajectories, Fed policy shifts, liquidity risks, and positioning strategies for 2026.

Mykuliak highlighted that gold’s climb to $5,600 (in prior peaks) reflects not just fear but a structural repricing driven by long-term macro risks. 

She views a move toward $6,000 in the near term as “quite realistic,” especially if uncertainty persists. Major forecasts align with this optimism: institutions like J.P. Morgan targets $6,300 by end-2026, UBS $6,200, and Wells Fargo recently lifted its year-end outlook to $6,100–$6,300, citing sustained central bank buying and investor demand.

Silver, meanwhile, benefits from surging real-world applications in semiconductors, EVs, AI infrastructure, and renewables — with supply remaining tight. 

Mykuliak expects decoupling in 2026: gold outperforming during stress periods, silver moving independently on tech and energy growth. 

Some analysts eye silver pushing toward $100+ sustainably, with extreme scenarios even floating $200 in speculative squeezes.

The Fed chair nomination of Kevin Warsh — an inflation hawk — is shifting expectations toward a more flexible policy stance, keeping real yields suppressed and supportive of precious metals. 

Tokenised gold’s TVL explosion past $4 billion signals institutional positioning, while India’s resilient cultural demand and ETF inflows add further tailwinds.

In this environment, Mykuliak stresses flexibility, reliable execution, and tight risk controls for traders as gold flashes early liquidity warnings.

With inflation now structural and de-dollarisation accelerating, gold and silver stand out as neutral, independent stores of value — poised to sustain buying pressure into 2026.

Gold on COMEX last traded at $5,069 per ounce, while silver was at $81.597 per ounce. Last month, prices had reached unprecedented record highs of $5,600 for gold, and $121 for silver.

Below are edited excerpts from the interview:

Invezz: With gold hitting a record $5,600 and silver $121, how much higher can both climb in 2026 if macro uncertainty persists?

Eugenia Mykuliak: Gold at these levels reflects both fear-driven flows and a structural repricing. As an eternal shield against crises — amid geopolitical risks, US debt dynamics, and currency stability concerns — gold should keep growing confidently. 

Looking from where we are now, a move towards $6,000 in the near future looks quite realistic.

Silver’s case is slightly different at its foundation, but the metal’s continued growth is just as likely.

Unlike gold, silver’s price is tied to real demand: namely, its use in fields like semiconductors, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and renewable energy. 

If industrial demand remains strong and supply stays tight — and right now it certainly looks that way — silver will remain elevated.

Interest rate outlook and new Fed Chair nominee

Invezz: The new Fed chair nominee is shifting expectations — how are markets pricing the interest rate outlook for 2026, and what does it mean for precious metals?

Eugenia Mykuliak: While no formal policy shift has occurred yet, Kevin Warsh’s nomination is something that markets are in the process of digesting.

Expectations now lean toward a less rigid Fed, with a slower, more flexible approach to rate cuts and greater tolerance for above-target inflation.

This keeps real yields under pressure without fully restoring growth confidence — a supportive environment for gold as a neutral store of value amid monetary stability questions. 

Silver benefits indirectly: industrial demand tends to hold up even in uncertain rate environments, especially if policy allows continued infrastructure and tech investment.

Gold as risk barometer

Invezz: Gold is acting as the first risk barometer again — when liquidity starts to crack, what typically breaks first in markets?

Eugenia Mykuliak: Liquidity itself breaks first: spreads widen, execution becomes uneven, and depth vanishes. 

Then leveraged positions suffer most — in derivatives, high-yield credit, and smaller equities. Trades still execute, but at worse prices with more slippage.

Gold is good at acting as a “risk barometer” because it often moves first to absorb defensive flows before stress becomes visible elsewhere. Investors don’t tend to wait for sell-offs — they start reallocating to gold as soon as confidence weakens.

By the time equities or credit react visibly, gold has often already flagged changing liquidity conditions.

Invezz: How should traders position themselves when gold flashes early risk signals, and liquidity thins out?

Eugenia Mykuliak: The most important thing in such situations is to stay flexible. The quality of liquidity — how quickly positions can be adjusted, and under what conditions — is the key factor.

In a stressed environment, the biggest question traders ask is not whether a position is theoretically profitable, but whether it can be adjusted predictably and without triggering additional risk. 

Instruments that look liquid in calm markets can behave very differently once volatility rises, and depth can vanish in minutes.

Gold giving risk signals doesn’t automatically mean that markets are about to collapse. Nor does it mean that you should be selling everything and exiting in a hurry.

But it does indicate that confidence is weakening and that liquidity conditions are likely to become less forgiving.

In such cases, it’s a good idea to tighten risk controls and focus on instruments with reliable execution in the short-term horizon. 

The ability to transact during volatile periods allows traders to stay engaged while managing risk effectively, which is less likely to leave them trapped when markets move abruptly.

Gold/silver decoupling in 2026?

Invezz: Silver’s industrial demand is surging alongside its hedge role — how do you see it decoupling or syncing with gold in 2026?

Eugenia Mykuliak: Gold and silver are fundamentally different: gold as a crisis hedge, silver as an industrial metal. Decoupling is highly likely in 2026.

Gold should outperform during market stress. Silver could move independently during production growth or renewed tech/energy infrastructure investment.

Invezz: Tokenised gold TVL has exploded to $4B+ — is this retail flight to safety or institutions quietly building positions?

Eugenia Mykuliak: It has the influence of both of those factors, but institutions are playing a larger role. Retail investors are attracted by accessibility, but the scale and consistency of inflows that we’ve been observing point to professional allocation strategies.

Tokenised gold fits well into institutional workflows — it offers exposure to physical gold while integrating with digital settlement and custody systems.

This is part of how capital markets are modernising rather than a purely speculative trend. And we can fully expect this trend to continue.

Invezz: In this volatile environment, is gold outperforming other safe havens like bonds or the dollar?

Eugenia Mykuliak: Yes, and there are clear reasons for that. Bonds are still vulnerable to inflation surprises and debt concerns. 

And the acceleration of de-dollarisation means that the US dollar’s role as a universal safe haven has weakened. Investors are more selective about when to rely on it for protection, and the use of alternative settlement currencies is growing.

Gold, on the other hand, stands independent from all of that. Its value is not tied to policy credibility, interest rate expectations, or political outcomes.

It outperforms other defensive assets because it offers neutrality above all.

India’s precious metals outlook

Invezz: India’s gold imports jumped 30% last year — how exposed is the local market to global price swings in 2026?

Eugenia Mykuliak: When it comes to gold, India remains a highly import-dependent market, so it’s unavoidable that it’s highly affected by global prices. But, I would argue that the full story here goes deeper than that. 

What matters more in this case is the structure of demand — a lot of India’s gold demand is long-term in nature rather than speculative. 

It is purchased for deeply-entrenched cultural purposes: wedding jewelry, festivals and religious ceremonies, household investments, and other such uses. 

That provides some stability during volatile periods, as buyers in this part of the world are less sensitive to day-to-day price fluctuations.

That said, higher prices do affect timing, as purchases may be postponed until a later point in time. 

The underlying demand remains resilient, but temporary pauses in imports and shifts in supply dynamics are possible from time to time.

Invezz: With rupee strength and rising silver jewellery demand, what’s your near-term outlook for India’s physical precious metals trade?

Eugenia Mykuliak: A stronger rupee can help absorb part of the global price increases for local buyers, making imports more manageable. 

And it’s true that silver, in particular, stands to benefit from the ongoing situation, both in terms of changing consumer preferences and price dynamics. As gold prices stay elevated, more people turn to silver for jewelry and gifts, which helps its momentum.

That said, volatility remains a prominent source of danger. Sudden global price swings can disrupt import chains, inventory management, and delivery schedules necessary for physical trade. 

This leaves smaller participants especially exposed, as they have less flexibility in hedging options, often being forced to pause trading or reduce volumes to manage their risks.

Stability in currency markets is just as important as metal prices themselves. Since most precious metals are priced globally in dollars, fluctuations in local exchange rates directly affect import costs and cash flow. 

On the other hand, even if global metal prices remain elevated, so long as the exchange rates remain predictable, it should allow traders, jewelers, and importers to plan with greater confidence.

Inflation hedge and ETF demand

Invezz: Amid geopolitical tensions and AI-driven energy needs, could gold and silver sustain buying pressure as inflation hedges?

Eugenia Mykuliak: Yes — inflation is now structural. AI/data centers and electrification drive rising energy demand. Geopolitical tensions are a prolonged reality.

Gold gains from macro uncertainty; silver from infrastructure scaling for new technologies. Both should see sustained demand despite fluctuations.

Invezz: What kind of impact will ETF inflows have on the market this year as investment demand continues to grow?

Eugenia Mykuliak: I expect that ETFs will continue to be the primary channel for institutional demand into metals markets. Institutional players increasingly prefer ETFs because they offer operational simplicity and flow quickly at scale, allowing investors to adjust exposure quickly in response to changing macro factors.

That said, this also means that metal markets have become more sensitive to macro headlines. And it’s important to remember that the same mechanisms that allow rapid inflows also enable fast reversals. 

In other words, when headline-driven sentiment shifts, ETF outflows can take place very quickly, and market participants now need to adapt to faster interchanging of risk and opportunity. That makes proper liquidity management and execution infrastructure more important than ever.

The post Interview: $6,000 gold realistic as macro risks fuel rally: B2PRIME’s Mykuliak appeared first on Invezz

Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), announced the launch of zero maker fees and ultra-low taker fees for its stock perpetuals and precious metal perpetuals, effective from February 10 through April 30, 2026.

The move positions Bitget as the lowest-cost venue in the market while offering one of the broadest selections of stock and metal perps.

The fee adjustment comes as global markets enter earnings season, a period marked by heightened volatility and frequent position adjustments.

In such environments, trading costs and asset availability play a decisive role in execution efficiency.

Under the new pricing structure, maker fees for stock perpetuals have been reduced from 0.02% to zero, while taker fees have been lowered from 0.06% to as low as 0.0065%.

For precious metal perpetuals, including gold-linked contracts, maker fees have also been set to zero, with taker fees discounted by up to 70%, subject to a minimum of 0.0065%.

“Earnings season is when trading costs and access really start to matter. Traders need the flexibility to move quickly without worrying about fees eating into every decision,” said Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget. “Our job is to remove friction and give people the tools they need to trade stocks and metals anywhere from the world 24/7.”

Bitget currently offers 33 stock perpetual trading pairs, spanning micro-caps to mega-cap equities, including major global technology stocks, alongside four precious metal perpetuals.

The platform also supports one of the highest offerings of up to 100x on selected stock perpetuals, including pairs such as NVDAUSDT, TSLAUSDT, and GOOGLUSDT, offering one of the highest leverage ceilings available in the market.

Beyond cost efficiency, stock perpetuals lower the barrier to participation by allowing traders to gain exposure without purchasing full shares.

This structure enables more flexible position sizing and capital allocation, particularly for users navigating short-term earnings or macro-driven price movements.

The update reinforces Bitget’s Universal Exchange model, which brings crypto, stocks and traditional market exposure together under a unified interface.

By combining low fees, broad asset coverage, and capital-efficient structures, Bitget continues to position itself as the trading venue for traders moving across asset classes and market cycles.

To find out more, please visit here.

The post Bitget cuts stock perps fees to zero for makers ahead of earnings season, expanding access across markets appeared first on Invezz

Indian state refiners Indian Oil Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp have purchased a combined 2 million barrels of Merey crude from Venezuela, with delivery scheduled for the second half of April, according to a Reuters report. 

A Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) will transport the crude oil, which is being sold by Trafigura, according to sources quoted in the report. 

The shipment is slated to arrive on India’s east coast, with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) receiving approximately 1.5 million barrels and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) receiving about 500,000 barrels.

Diversifying away from Russian oil

Indian refiners are actively diversifying their crude oil imports, a strategic move aimed at reducing their reliance on Russian supply. 

This shift is primarily driven by New Delhi’s efforts to facilitate a trade agreement with Washington. 

By avoiding Russian oil, which had become a significant, low-cost source, Indian state-owned and private refiners are signalling their commitment to strengthening commercial ties with the United States and aligning with broader geopolitical objectives. 

This diversification strategy involves securing supplies from various alternative global sources, ensuring energy security while supporting the broader diplomatic push for a favorable trade deal.

HPCL has made its first purchase of Venezuelan oil in two years. This follows a previous purchase of Venezuelan oil in 2024 by the country’s leading refiner, IOC, according to the report.

HPCL is actively pursuing Venezuelan heavy crude oil for its upgraded 300,000-barrels-per-day refinery in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh. 

This move, announced in January, capitalises on the refinery’s recent ability to process heavier crude grades. 

Market activity

Historically, another major Indian refiner, IOC, has experience processing Venezuela’s Merey crude, specifically at its Paradip refinery in Odisha. 

This indicated a growing interest and established capacity within India’s refining sector to handle Venezuelan heavy oil, likely in an effort to diversify sourcing and optimise operations based on the new processing capabilities.

Merey’s price is benchmarked against the Dubai standard and, according to a trade source, is comparable to the rates at which Reliance Industries acquired Venezuelan oil from the trader Vitol. 

Reliance Industries bought about 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude last week, according to a Bloomberg report.

Reliance’s acquisition is the first instance of India purchasing Venezuelan oil since the US assumed control over Venezuela’s oil sales at the beginning of last month.

Reliance Industries’ last purchase of crude oil from Venezuela occurred in mid-2025, facilitated by a specific US Administration waiver that had been in effect since mid-2024. 

The company stated last month that it would contemplate resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude, provided sales are authorised for non-US entities.

Trade deal framework

Prior to US sanctions targeting Russia’s major producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, Reliance Industries was the largest purchaser of Russian crude oil. 

Reliance, an Indian refiner, had a long-term agreement with Rosneft and was importing over 500,000 barrels per day until it ceased all Rosneft purchases following the imposition of sanctions.

In a related development, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), an Indian state-run company, is also considering the potential acquisition of Venezuelan crude after discontinuing its imports of Russian oil.

Vitol and Trafigura, two of the world’s leading independent traders, are now marketing Venezuelan crude to buyers in India and China. 

These firms, recently enlisted by the US to help sell Venezuela’s oil, are offering the crude for delivery in March and April.

US Gulf Coast oil refiners are facing difficulties processing a quick surge in Venezuelan shipments, resulting in some cargo remaining unsold, according to information from traders and shipping data.

Meanwhile, the US and India have established a framework for a trade deal, signaling progress toward an agreement that is expected to be finalized by March.

This pact aims to reduce tariffs and enhance economic collaboration between the two nations.

The post Indian refiners buy 2M barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude: report appeared first on Invezz