A crypto market rally is going on, with altcoins like Dash, Mantle, Aster, and Morpho going up by double digits. Dash price has jumped by over 50% in the last 24 hours, while MNT, ASTER, and Morpho have risen by over 30%. Bitcoin price has also surged from last week’s low of $108,000 to $115,500 today. 

Crypto market rally happens amid trade optimism

The primary reason why the crypto market rally is happening is the view that the trade war between the US and China will de-escalate soon. In a Truth Social post, Donald Trump asked market participants not to be worried about the potential trade war. 

His statement came shortly after JD Vance, the vice president, left the door open for de-escalation, noting that the US had more cards over China.

These statements came two days after Donald Trump warned that the US would impose major tariffs against China. He said this after China unveiled new measures, including a threat to limit rare earth materials exports, new tariffs on US ships docking in its shores, and an investigation into Qualcomm. 

In a statement on Sunday, Beijing reiterated that its actions were a response to US policy. Just recently, the Trump administration tightened the screws on its export controls policy. 

Therefore, the two sides will likely work to reach a trade agreement ahead of the Trump and Xi Jinping meeting in South Korea. 

Crypto investors are buying the dip

The ongoing crypto market rally is happening as investors buy the dip. This is evidenced by the ongoing volume and open interest surge. The volume in the spot market rose by 4.20% in the last 24 hours to over $262 billion. 

Data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the open interest has jumped by almost 10% $162 billion, in the last 24 hours. 

Historically, cryptocurrencies bounce back sharply after a big drop as market participants buy the dip expecting that the rally will intensify. They also buy the dip as they aim to recoup some of their losses. 

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts hopes

Bitcoin and altcoins are going up as investors predict that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates as the government shutdown continues and threats to the US economy remain. 

There are chances that the economy will remain under pressure in the coming weeks. For one, the Trump administration has started firing government workers as it increases its pressure on Democrats.

A recent report by ADP noted that the economy lost over 36,000 jobs in September. While the BLS did not publish the official report, analysts believe that the labor market was not all that strong. As such, the odds of more rate cuts by the Fed have jumped, which will help to support the crypto market. 

Potential dead-cat bounce

The biggest risk that the crypto market faces today is that the ongoing rally may be part of a dead-cat bounce or DCB. A DCB, also known a a bull trap, is a situation where a falling asset bounces back temporarily and then resumes the downtrend. 

Looking forward, the crypto market will likely be volatile as traders focus on the trade talks between the US and China, and the government shutdown.

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It was a sea of red in the Hang Seng Index on Monday, with all but two companies crashing. The index, which tracks some of the biggest companies in China, plunged by over 3.50% and reached its lowest point since September 8. It has now slipped by 7.35% from its highest point this year.

Hong Kong stocks plunge amid trade fears

The Hang Seng Index has hit a major wall as investors react to the new tensions between the US and China. These tensions have been going on behind the scenes in the past few weeks.

The US Commerce Department tightened screws of its export controls two weeks ago. In response, Beijing unveiled a new policy to limit the export of rare earth materials, a move that could halt US manufacturing.

In his statement, Donald Trump threatened that the US will impose a 130% tariff on goods from China. In a separate statement, JD Vance, the Vice President, noted that the US had more cards in the escalating conflict. 

Still, on the positive side, there are chances that the new trade war will end soon as the two sides have signaled an openness to de-escalate. In a statement, an analyst told the Financial Times said:

“China has also clarified that its export control is not an export ban and has not retaliated with an equal tariff on US goods after Trump announced 100 per cent additional tariffs on Chinese exports.”

The other potential catalyst for the Hang Seng Index is the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea.

China’s exports are soaring

Another catalyst is that the Chinese economy is doing well. A report released on Monday showed that the country’s exports jumped by 8.3% in October, higher than the median esrimate of 6.6%.

China’s exports to the US plunged by 27%, the sixth month o double-digit declines. This plunge was offset by a surge in exports to Europe and other Asian countries. In a statement, a Societe Generale analyst said:

“China’s exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, thanks to a diversified export market and strong competitiveness. The limited impact from US tariffs on overall trade so far has likely emboldened China to take a tougher stance in US-China trade negotiations.”

All companies in the Hang Seng Index but two were in the red on Monday. Wuxi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, which have operations in the US, were the top laggards as they plunged by over 8.2%. 

Sunny Optical Technology, Xiaomi, Xinyi Solar, BYD, Xinyi Glass, and Lenovo Group were the other top laggards as they plunged by over 8%. The other notable losers were firms like Sands China, JD.com, JD Logistics, Alibaba, and Baidu.

Hang Seng Index technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend in the past few days. It has slumped from the year-to-date high of H$27,375 to the current H$25,375, its lowest level since September. 

The Hang Seng has moved below the lower side of the ascending channel. It has also dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed downwards.

Therefore, the most likely Hang Seng Index forecast is bearish, with the initial target being at H$24,887. Falling to that level will be a bullish catalyst as it will be a break-and-retest pattern, which is a common continuation sign. 

A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological point at H$24,000. 

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Alibaba stock price tumbled in Hong Kong on Monday, reaching its lowest level since September 24. BABA’s Hong Kong shares have now plunged by 14.50% from its highest point this year as geopolitical fears remained. Here are the top reasons it will rebound soon.

Alibaba Group has a limited exposure to the US

The main reason why the Alibaba stock price is tumbling today is the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. 

China and the US have restarted their trade war ahead of the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting later this month.

China has threatened to limit exports of key materials like rare earths, while the United States has warned that it will impose tariffs, which will bring the effective rate to 140%. As with the past, China warned that it will retaliate against the US measures.

There are two potential catalysts for Alibaba stock price in this angle. First, there are odds that the two sides will de-escalate, especially ahead of the upcoming Trump and Xi meeting.

Second, Alibaba has a limited exposure to the United States. Instead, the company makes most of its money from China and the emerging markets. 

While the company does not share its numbers by geography, analysts estimate that its total US revenue is less than $4 billion. Alibaba made over $137 billion in revenues in 2024, meaning that it can offset its US revenues.

READ MORE: Here’s why JPMorgan, Morningstar are bullish on Alibaba stock

BABA’s business is thriving 

Meanwhile, the most recent results showed that Alibaba’s business is thriving across the board. 

Its cloud business has received a boost from the ongoing investments in the artificial intelligence industry.

The most recent results showed that the revenue from its cloud business rose by 26% in the last quarter to over $4.6 billion, with the company citing its AI solutions. Within this segment, the company’s AI-related revenue experienced triple-digit sales growth for the eighth consecutive quarters.

Alibaba is benefiting as many companies in China embrace its data infrastructure to train their AI models. 

The other core businesses also did well in the recent quarter. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group made $4.8 billion, up by 19% YoY, while its domestic division rose by 10% to $12.49 billion.

The only laggards in Alibaba’s business is its others segment, which includes products like DingTalk, Quark, Youku, and Alibaba Health, whose revenue fell by 28%. This decline was because it sold off Sun Art and Intime last year. Also, its ele.me business is struggling because of the soaring competition from the likes of JD and Meituan.

READ MORE: Here’s why the Alibaba stock price has gone parabolic

The other potential catalyst for the Alibaba stock price is that its innovation is set to make it a major player in the semiconductor industry, which China is trying to boost. It is working on chips that may one day rival those made by Nvidia.

The company’s valuation is also cheaper than other firms. It has a forward PE ratio of 23, which is reasonable for a company seeing strong revenue growth across most of its segments. Its PEG ratio of 0.15 is also lower than the sector median of 0.77.

Alibaba stock price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Hang Seng Index has pulled back in the past few months, moving from a high of H$185 to the current $160.

It remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the important support level at H$142, its highest swing in March this year.

The stock has formed a doji candle, which is a common bullish reversal sign. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the Alibaba stack price resumes the uptrend as investors target the YTD high of H$185 followed by the psychological level at H$200.

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Silver price continued its strong surge this week and is now hovering at its highest point in decades. It has crossed the important resistance level at $50 and is now up by over 80% this year. This article explores why the silver price and the SLV ETF may retreat soon. 

Silver price jumps as SLV ETF inflows jump

Silver, a top precious metal, has been in a strong bull run this year. This price action has mirrored that of other top precious metals. 

Gold price jumped to a record high of $4,100, while platinum and palladium have soared to $1,648 and $1,462. This surge also coincided with the recent US Dollar Index (DXY) crash. The dollar index was trading at $99 on Monday, down slightly from this week’s high of $99.55. 

Silver has jumped as investors have moved to silver assets in the past few weeks. The closely-watched iShares Silver ETF (SLV) has added over $1.4 billion in assets this year. It added over $423 million in assets last week. 

The surge also happened as demand for safe-haven assets rose as the geopolitical risk that was diminishing returned. Donald Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on China after Beijing launched multiple measures targeting the United States.

Trump said that the US would impose a  130% tariff on goods from China starting on October 1. In an X post on Sunday, he urged market participants not to worry about China as the two countries would likely reach an agreement.

China, on the other hand, announced measures to hit the United States, including barring exports of rare earth materials and magnets. It also announced new tariffs on US ships docking on China. 

Consequently, the Fear and Greed Index moved to the fear zone as the stock market plunged. Chinese indices like the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite also pulled back on Monday.

Silver price also rose as investors predicted that there will be a lack of liquidity in London. This liquidity issue has become a major challenge such that some traders are now opting for air transport for silver bars to benefit from the ongoing premium for London bars.

At the same time, market participants are waiting for the ongoing probe by the US administration on critical minerals, a move that may see it add more tariffs on imports.

The ongoing silver price surge has boosted the top companies in the industry. Fresnillo share price has surged and become the best-performing company in the FTSE 100 Index. Other companies like Hecla Mining, First Majestic Silver, Fortuna Silver Mines, and Endeavor Silver have surged in the past few months.

Silver price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the silver price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months, moving from a low of $20 in October on October 23 to the current $52. It has jumped by 150% from that period.

The ongoing silver price rally faces potential pullback risks in the near term. For one, there is a risk that the stock will go through a mean reversion as it has moved substantially higher above the short and long-term moving averages. Its price is at $52, much higher than the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages at $43 and $40, respectively.

The other main reason why silver price may crash is that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to the overbought level at 84. As such, while the silver price has more upside to go, there is a risk that it will pullback in the coming weeks or months as investors start to book profits. If this happens, it may drop to the key support at $45.

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The Dow Jones Index plunged by almost 2% on Friday as geopolitical risks between the United States and China accelerated. It plunged to a low of $45,480 as we had predicted a few hours before that. This article explores some of the top catalysts that will move the Dow Jones and its ETFs like DIA.

US and China trade war 

The main catalyst for the Dow Jones Index and its ETFs is the ongoing geopolitical issues between the US and China.

The index plunged last week after a series of statements by Chinese and US officials. China launched an investigation into Qualcomm, a top American semiconductor company, and hinted that it would place export controls on rare earth metals, an industry that it dominates and one that American companies depend on.

In his response, Donald Trump threatened to impose new 130% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States if the two sides don’t reach an agreement.

The Dow Jones Index futures jumped by 450 points, while those linked to the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 rose by 100 and 460 points, respectively. This rebound was because the two sides made efforts to de-escalate the trade war, with Donald Trump and JD Vance hinting that the US wanted a trade deal.

A potential catalyst for the Dow Jones will be the upcoming APEC meeting that will happen in South Korea between October 31st and November 1. Trump is expected to meet with Xi Jinping and possibly reach an agreement, which would boost the stock market.

Read more: Dow Jones Index forms risky pattern ahead of earnings season

US government shutdown 

The other notable catalyst for the Dow Jones Index will be the US government shutdown, which has now entered the third week. Democrats and Republicans have not made any progress on the deal to end it.

The ongoing government shutdown has an impact on the economy, especially now that many public sector employees are not being paid. Thousands of them have been furloughed and the Trump administration has started firing some of them, which is coming at a time when the labor market is not doing well.

The shutdown is also dragging the GDP, which is estimated to cost the economy between 0.1% and 0.2% a week. This amount is equivalent to between $7 billion and $15 billion per week. 

As a result, the longer it continues, the higher the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates in the coming meetings. The Dow Jones Index normally does well when the Fed is cutting interest rates.

Earnings season 

The other notable catalyst for the Dow Jones Index this week will be the start of the earnings season, which will start on Tuesday when companies like JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock, Citi, and Bank of America.

Analysts expect that the earnings season will show that earnings rose by 13% in the third quarter. A stronger result will be a good thing for the stock market as it will mean that companies are adopting the tariffs.

Federal Reserve cues

The other important catalyst for the Dow Jones and other American indices will be statements from some key Federal Reserve officials. Jerome Powell will deliver his statement on Tuesday.

Other officials like Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran, and Michele Bowman will also talk. These officials will provide more information on what to expect in the coming meetings.

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MP Materials ‘ stock price has been in a strong uptrend this year and is now trading at the highest level on record as investors focus on the ongoing demand for rare earth materials and the geopolitical risks between the United States and China. 

The stock jumped to a high of $86 in the premarket, bringing its market capitalization to over $14 billion. This article explores why the MP share price may jump to $150 in the next few months.

Why MP Materials stock price is soaring 

MP Materials share price has jumped by over 758% from its lowest level in 2024, making it one of the best-performing companies in the United States.

This surge has intensified during the Donald Trump administration, which has intensified geopolitical tensions with China, a country that dominates the rare earth industry.

In a statement last week, China said that it will start limiting rare earth materials exports starting from next month, as it blamed the US for the new geopolitical tensions. Such a move will benefit MP Materials, which is the biggest company in the industry in the United States.

The company will also benefit even if the United States and China reach a trade deal this year because the US will continue to boost its market share in the industry as it has observed the leverage that China has.

MP Materials will also benefit after a report by the FT noted that the Pentagon was considering buying critical materials worth over $2 billion to stockpile. It will likely be the top companies to benefit in this deal. The FT said:

“They’re definitely looking for more, and they’re doing it in a deliberate and expansive way, and looking for new sources of different ores needed for defence products.”

Besides, the Department of Defense has already taken a 15% stake in the company. The government has also committed to buy its materials worth billions of dollars in the coming years. 

MP’s business is growing 

The most recent results showed that MP Materials’ revenue surged by 84% YoY in the second quarter to $57 million. This surge happened as the company hit a record high NdPr production of 597 metric tons, a 119% annual increase. 

Its NdPr sales more than tripled, a trend that will accelerate as the government and private sector players like automakers and other manufacturers seek to diversify their business from China, which still maintains a 90% market share in the industry.

The results showed that the materials segment made $37.5 million in revenue in the last quarter, while the magnetics segment made over $19 million. 

Most importantly, the company continued to narrow its losses. Its net loss improved by $6.7 million to $21.5 million.

Analysts are optimistic that the company’s business will continue to do well in the long term as demand rises. The average revenue estimate for the year is $238 million, up by 38% from the same period last year. It will then make $705 million next year, a 149% annual increase, and then turn a profit.

Odds are that the company’s business will be much better than expected because of the ongoing demand for rare earth materials and magnets. 

As such, these numbers mean that the company’s stock will keep doing well despite its premium valuation as companies like Apple place their bids.

MP Materials share price technical analysis 

MP stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the MP Materials stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months, moving from a low of $10 in August last year to $80 today.

Most recently, the stock has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also formed a bullish flag pattern, which is a common bullish continuation sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock rises and hits $100 in the near term. It may also surge to over $150 in the long term as the geopolitical between the US and China remains.

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A steep crypto crash happened on Friday, leading to one of the biggest bloodbaths in the industry this year. Bitcoin price crashed to a low of $106,867, down by over 11% from its highest level this year.

Altcoin had a worse performance, with some of the top laggards being tokens like Ethena (ENA), Mantle (MNT), Filecoin (FIL), and DoubleZero (ZZ). 

Altogether, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies plunged to $3.7 trillion, while total liquidations jumped to over $20 billion during the weekend. This article explores the main reasons why the crypto market crash happened and whether Bitcoin and altcoins will go back up soon.

Why the crypto crash happened 

The crypto market crash happened as investors reacted to the new geopolitical issues between the US and China. These tensions have been boiling in the past few weeks as China has announced some major news targeting the US.

For example, China has not imported any soybeans from the US in this season, leading to a substantial increase in inventories. Donald Trump has pledged to use some of the tariff revenue to help out farmers, many who are in states that he won.

China has also asked its technology companies to avoid using American chips, especially those made by Nvidia. Beijing hopes that these countermeasures will help to supercharge the domestic chip industry.

Further, the country announced measures to limit rare earth metal exports to the United States and other countries, and new tariffs on ships docking from the country.

Therefore, Donald Trump announced major tariffs on goods from China, leading to a sense of fear among investors, which led to a stock and crypto market crash. The Fear and Greed Index moved to the fear zone as investors sold in panic.

Will Bitcoin and other crypto go back up?

The question among investors is whether the crypto market will go back up in the coming days.

A closer look shows that most coins have already surged from their lowest level last week. Bitcoin price has jumped to $111,200 from a low of $108,500 last week. 

Zcash price has continued its relentless bull run that has pushed it from a low of $35 this month to $273 today. Other top coins that have rebounded are Story, MYX Finance, VeChain, and Morpho.

The risk, however, is that the ongoing crypto market rebound is part of a dead-cat bounce, a situation where an asset in a freefall bounces back temporarily.

Some potential catalysts may push the crypto market back up again. For example, industry may rebound because of the common phrase ‘TACO’, which means that Trump Always Chickens Out. As with the past, there is a likelihood that he will end the new tariffs by opting to negotiate with China.

Also, the crypto and stock market will likely recover towards the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in South Korea. Such developments will be bullish for the stock and crypto market as they did earlier this year.

Additionally, the crypto market always bounces back after a major crash as we experienced earlier this year. Bitcoin plummeted after Donald Trump’s Liberation Day in April and then jumped to a record high in the following month. 

The other main reason why the crypto market may bounce back is that the Federal Reserve will likely intensify its intensiffy its interest rate cuts in the coming meetings, which will boost risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

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The earnings season will kick off this week and will be the main catalyst for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones indices as they will provide more information about the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on corporate America. This article provides a preview and the top things to watch.

Earnings season to provide details on growth

The second-quarter earnings season will begin on Tuesday this week, when major American banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs release their results. Other top American companies like Johnson & Johnson, American Express, and Charles Schwab will release their numbers.

Data compiled by FactSet shows that analysts anticipate more earnings growth. The average earnings growth among analysts is about 8%. However, the report also estimates that the earnings growth will be in the range of 13%.

If 8% if the real number, it will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth. The report noted:

“Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report earnings growth above 13% for the third quarter, which would mark the 4th straight quarter of double-digit growth.”

A strong earnings growth will be important for two main reasons. First, the growth will demonstrate that companies have adapted well to Donald Trump’s tariffs.

These results are notable because they come as the trade war between the United States and China has intensified. Donald Trump warned that he would implement sweeping tariffs against China, which is also expected to respond with its own countermeasures of its own.

Second, strong earnings will help to justify the valuation of American companies. FactSet notes that the average P/E ratio of the index is 22.8, which is much higher than the five-year average of 19.9. 

Artificial Intelligence spending and results

The other important thing to watch in this earnings season will be results from the biggest technology companies like Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, Oracle, AMD, and Nvidia.

These results will be the most important, as they will provide more insight into the AI industry, which has been the driving force behind the recent stock market rally. The AI industry has now created several companies with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, and Amazon. 

There have been concerns about the AI bubble, which analysts have warned may burst in the coming months. One of the main issues is circular investments, which has been led by companies like Nvidia and OpenAI. 

Concerns about the AI bubble is also because companies in the industry are yet to demonstrate the incremental earnings that is coming from their AI investments. 

Bank earnings and trading revenues

The other main catalyst to watch in this earnings season is on the bank earnings. Top banks like JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo will publish their results.

These earnings will be the first ones since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates. Still, the rate cut will likely have no major impact on their earnings as it happened in September. 

The other main aspect of the earnings will be the capital markets and investment banking division. Analysts expect the results to show that the investment banking revenue jumped as companies announced deal worth over $1 trillion during the quarter. 

Additionally, analysts expect that the capital markets division will continue thriving, with it earnings growth rate coming in at 15%. Investment banking revenue is expected to come in at 27%. Financial exchanges and data, and asset management are expected to grow by 11% and 6%.

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The Dow Jones Index has pulled back in the past few days as the recent bull run faded. It pulled back to a low of $46,350, and a risky pattern it has formed points to more downside in the coming weeks as the earnings season starts. 

Dow Jones Index technical analysis points to a crash 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Dow Jones Index has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months, moving from a low of $36,577 in April to a high of $47,035 last week.

Recently, however, the index has pulled back, and moved to the lowest level since September as the government shutdown has continued and some Federal Reserve officials have warned about interest rate cuts in the country.

A closer look at the chart shows that the index has formed some highly bearish chart patterns, even as it remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

It has formed the highly bearish rising wedge chart pattern, which comprises two ascending and converging trendlines. These two lines have now moved to their confluence levels, meaning that a strong bearish breakdown may happen soon.

The Dow Jones Index has formed a bearish divergence pattern as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have pointed downwards. Like the wedge pattern, a divergence is a common bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Dow Jones and its ETF, like the DIA will have a bearish breakdown in the coming weeks, potentially to the key support level at $45,587, the 50-day moving average. The bearish outlook will be invalidated if it moves above the all-time high of $47,035.

Earnings season is coming up 

One potential catalyst that may lead to a Dow Jones Index pullback is that American companies are considering releasing their third-quarter earnings next week.

The earnings season will kick off on Tuesday when companies like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Johnson & Johnson publishes their results.

Other large American companies like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Schwab, and Interactive Brokers will publish their results. 

The most likely scenario is where most of these companies will publish strong financial results, with banks benefiting from their trading operations. 

Wall Street analysts expect that the S&P 500 Index will have an earnings growth of about 8%, the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth. Still, in the past, weaker-than-expected earnings have triggered a stock market crash.

AI bubble risks remain 

The main risk in the upcoming earnings season will not come from traditional stocks like banks and energy. Instead, traders are watching the AI industry that has driven the stock market rally.

Top companies in the AI industry like ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor will publish their financial results next week. Investors pay a close attention to the TSMC earnings because it is the biggest fabricator in the world, serving companies like AMD and Nvidia.

These results come as some popular investors, including Orlando Bravo, have warned about the AI industry and the risk of an AI bubble. Other analysts have warned about the ongoing circular deals in the industry,with OpenAI announcing deals worth over $2 trillion, funds that it does not have.

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The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has been in a relentless bull run this year and is trading at its all-time high. GDX was trading at $80, up by 135% from its January lows and 

The ETF has jumped in the last ten consecutive weeks, its longest streak on record. This surge has brought its total assets to over $23 billion, even as it experienced net outflows of over $3 billion. 

This article explores why gold mining stocks are rising and whether it’s too late to buy it. 

Gold mining stocks have jumped as gold price has soared

The GDX ETF has been in a strong bull run this year, helped by the ongoing gold price rally. Gold was trading at $4,030 on Thursday after soaring by over 50% from its lowest level this year. It has jumped by 110% in the last five years.

Gold has jumped for several reasons. First, Wall Street analysts have been highly bullish on gold this year, with most of them boosting their estimates as it continued rising.

Bank of America boosted the estimate to $4,000, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have maintained that it has more upside in the coming months.

Second, gold price has jumped this year because of the ongoing accumulation by foreign central banks, especially China, as they viewed the US dollar as an unreliable reserve currency. Recent data shows that gold holdings by central banks have flipped those of US dollar.

Third, Donald Trump’s policies have continued to have a positive impact on gold. These policies include his attacks on the Federal Reserve, tariffs, and the Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to boost the budget deficit. On the positive side, independent entities expect that the tariff revenue will help to limit its impact.

Additionally, gold price has continued to serve its inflation hedge purpose in the market. Inflation has remained stubbornly high in the past few months.  The most recent report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% in August, while the core CPI has moved to 3.1%.

Gold price has also thrived now that the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates this year. It slashed rates by 0.25% to between 4.00% and 4.25% and officials pointed to more cuts in the near term.

Is the GDX ETF stock a good buy today?

The GDX ETF stock price has been in a strong uptrend this year, with many gold mining stocks firing on all cylinders.

Agnico Eagle stock price has jumped by 113% this year, while other top mining companies like Barrick Gold, Newmont, and Zijin Mining have soared by over 134%. These stocks have done better than gold as investors anticipate strong returns.

However, there are risks of buying the GDX ETF at its record level. The first main risk is that gold could suffer a pullback in the next few months as investors start to book profits.

Another risk is that gold mining companies have not always been the best allocators of capital. A good example is when gold mining stocks plunged by over 79% from its highest level in 2011 to its lowest point in 2015. In a note, an analyst told the FT that:

“A lot of value was destroyed. In investors’ minds, it’s still fresh. The mistakes these companies made in the previous cycle, and some scepticism, will those mistakes happen again?”

The other risk is that the ongoing gold price rally is also due to the government shutdown, which has affected operations in Washington. As such, there is also a risk of a reversal when the shutdown ends.

GDX ETF stock | Source: TradingView

Technicals also suggest that the GDX ETF will retreat in the coming weeks. For one, the fund has become highly overbought as the Relative Strength Index has jumped to 83 and the Stochastic Oscillator has moved to nearly 100. Also, the stock is approaching the overbought level of the Murrey Math Lines tool. 

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