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Chewy stock price remains in a technical bear market after falling by 50% from its highest point in June last year.

It has slumped to its lowest level since July 2024 as investors focus on the upcoming earnings, which will provide more information about its business.

Chewy stock pressured ahead of earnings 

Chewy, a top online retailer focusing on pet supplies, has fallen sharply in the past few months as investors worry about its revenue growth.

These concerns will be put to the test next week when the company publishes its financial results.

Based on the recent earnings, analysts expect that the results will show that its revenue growth stalled in the last quarter.

The average estimate is that its quarterly revenue was $3.5 billion in the last quarter, flat what it made in the same period a year earlier.

Its earnings-per-share (EPS) is expected to remain unchanged at $0.28.

Chewy’s revenue and profitability will likely be better than these estimates as the company tends to be highly conservative when making its guidance. 

However, on the positive side, analysts are optimistic that the company’s annual revenue in FY26 will be $12.6 billion, up by 6.25% YoY. It will then make $13.59 billion in the next financial year, up by 7.85% YoY. 

These numbers mean that the company’s growth has continued, as its annual revenue stood at $10.1 billion in FY22.

Most notably, the growth is being driven by the autoship solution, which made over $10.3 billion in the last financial year.

Analysts are moderately bullish on the Chewy stock. In a recent note, analysts at Raymond James said that the recent pullback made it an attractive buying point. 

They pointed to its cheap valuation, including its 8x enterprise value to next year’s EBITDA.

Also, the analyst pointed to the fact that Chewy was a highly defensive company, especially as the number of pets in the United States jumped.

Seeking Alpha data shows that the company has a forward PE ratio of 19, slightly higher than its sector median of 15.

Also, its price-to-cash flow is 14, which is much lower than that of other companies in the industry.

Most analysts have a bullish outlook for the stock, with the average estimate among analysts being $43.8, up sharply from the current level.

CHWY stock price technical analysis 

Chewy stock chart | Source: TradingView 

Technical analysis suggests that CHWY stock has slumped in the past few months, falling from a high of $48.12 in June last year to the current $24.30.

It has dropped below the Major S&R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $25.

The stock crossed the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Awesome Oscillator turned negative in October last year.

Also, the Trend Strength Index is nearing the oversold level.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level at $14.65, its lowest level in May 2024. This target is about 40% below the current level.

However, a move above the key psychological level at $30 will invalidate the bearish outlook and point to more gains, potentially to $48, its highest point in June last year.

The post Chewy stock price analysis and earnings preview appeared first on Invezz

Plug Power stock price has held steady in the past few weeks as investors reacted to the recent financial results, which showed that its business was doing well. PLUG, a top player in the hydrogen energy industry, was trading at $2.30 on Wednesday, up by 35% from its lowest level this year. 

This recovery may continue in the foreseeable future as investors anticipate more revenue growth this year.

Analysts expect Plug Power revenue to keep growing

Plug Power’s business is doing well despite the ongoing challenges in the hydrogen sector. The most recent results showed that its revenue jumped by nearly 13% last year to $710 million. Its fourth-quarter revenue rose by 17.6% to $225 million.

This growth was driven by a big increase in the power purchase agreements segment, which continued seeing more demand in the United States and other countries. Its power purchase agreements made $107 million from the $77 million it made in the same period a year earlier.

The other segments of this business continued doing relatively well in this period. For example, fuel delivered to customers rose to $133 million from the previous $97.8 million. Also, the services offered on fuel cell system made over $94 million, up from $52 million in the same period in 2024.

The main challenge, however, is that its biggest equipment sales have continued weakening. Its revenue dropped to $371 million from the $390 million a year earlier. This is important as the segment made $711 million in 2023.

Wall Street analysts are highly optimistic that the company’s business will continue rising in the coming years, helped by the rising industrial demand, including companies like Walmart, Amazon, and DHL.

The average estimate is that its revenue will jump by 6.20% this year to over $142 million, while its annual figure will jump by 13% to over $802 million. It will then make $951 million this year.

Additionally, Plug Power’s losses are expected to continue narrowing. It made a loss per share of 85 cents last year, and analysts expect it to improve to 30 cents this year and 22 cents next year. 

Still, despite these developments, the stock faces the major risk of dilution as it will need to raise capital in the coming months. It ended the last quarter with over $308 million in cash and $186 million in restricted cash.

Plug Power stock price technical analysis 

PLUG stock chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the PLUG stock has rebounded in the past few days, moving from a low of $1.72 in February to the current $2.32. It has formed a double-bottom pattern at $1.72 and a neckline at $2.64, its highest level in January this year.

The stock remains between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels. It has also moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising in the coming weeks, potentially to the neckline at $2.65. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at $3.10, which is about 35% above the current level.

The post Plug Power stock could jump by 35% soon: here’s why appeared first on Invezz

Li Lu may not be a household name for retail investors, but in the halls of Berkshire Hathaway, he is revered.

Born in China and shaped by the 1989 student protests, Lu eventually found his calling at Columbia University after hearing a lecture by Warren Buffett.

His investment firm, Himalaya Capital, now manages $3.5 billion with a concentrated strategy that mirrors the “buy and hold” philosophy of his late mentor, Charlie Munger.

By the end of 2025, a staggering 75% of Lu’s portfolio was anchored in just three powerhouses: Alphabet, Bank of America, and PDD Holdings.

Alphabet Inc: the AI fortress and search dominant

Alphabet stock remains the crown jewel of Lu’s portfolio, representing a massive 44% stake split between Class A and C shares.

While critics once feared that generative AI would erode Google’s search hegemony, the company has proven remarkably resilient.

Recent legal victories against Department of Justice antitrust efforts have cleared significant regulatory clouds, allowing the tech giant to lean into its AI integration.

Beyond search, Alphabet’s ecosystem is diversifying rapidly; YouTube remains a dominant force in digital media, while Waymo leads the nascent autonomous ride-hailing sector.

Trading at roughly 26 times forward earnings, Googles shares offer a rare blend of “Magnificent Seven” growth with a multiple that value investors like Lu still find palatable.

Bank of America: scaling through economic volatility

Representing 16% of Himalaya’s capital, Bank of America serves as Lu’s primary bet on the enduring scale of the US financial system.

Despite recent geopolitical tremors in the Middle East driving energy price spikes, the banking sector has found a tailwind in a steepening yield curve and a shifting regulatory tide.

Investors are particularly optimistic about a ‘deregulation rally” as Federal Reserve officials signal a potential easing of the stringent capital requirements born from the 2008 crisis.

For a titan like Bank of America, lower capital mandates translate directly into higher shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.

Its massive infrastructure allows it to absorb tech costs that smaller rivals simply can’t, making it a classic “scale play.”

PDD Holdings: a contrarian bet on Chinese e-commerce

The most controversial of Lu’s “Big Three” is PDD Holdings, the parent company of Pinduoduo and the global disruptor Temu.

At 15% of the portfolio, this position highlights Lu’s willingness to go against the grain.

While Chinese stocks have faced a gruelling five-year downturn due to sluggish consumer confidence and fierce margin wars, PDD offers a valuation gap that is hard to ignore.

Trading at a meagre 8 times forward earnings – compared to over 23x for US tech benchmarks – PDD shares are a high-conviction play on an eventual Chinese economic recovery.

For Lu, the risk of regional regulatory complexity is offset by the sheer efficiency and explosive global reach of Temu’s supply chain model.

The post 'Chinese Warren Buffett' has stakes in these 3 stocks: should you buy too? appeared first on Invezz

The CAC 40 Index has dropped into a correction after falling by ~10% from its highest point this year. It slipped from €8,645 in February to €7,807, its lowest level since September last year. This trend may continue as the Iran war escalates.

French stocks are falling amid the ongoing Iran war 

The CAC 40 Index has come under pressure this month, mirroring the performance of other European stocks, which have plunged during the ongoing Iran war.

European companies will be among the most affected because of the bloc’s dependence on the Middle East. As a result, European gas prices have jumped by triple digits since the war started.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that many companies in the index will see higher costs as the war continues.

At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted that it will hike interest rates later this year as inflation continues rising. Analysts at key banks like Barclays and Goldman Sachs have predicted that the bank will deliver two rate cuts this year. 

This explains why French bond yields have continued rising this month, moving from a low of 3.219% earlier this month to 3.62% today.

Many French companies are also contending with key developments in key countries like China and the United States. For example, luxury brands like LVMH and Kering are still experiencing slow revenue growth in China as retail sales remain under pressure.

Most companies in the CAC 40 Index have continued falling in the past few weeks. Compagnie de Saint-Gobain’s stock has dropped by over 23% in the last 30 days as demand for its products continued to wane. 

Pernod Ricard’s stock has dropped by 23% in this period as its sales in China and the United States have continued slowing. In a statement, the company said that it was now focusing on cost savings to offset its slow growth. Its total sales in the first half of the year dropped by 25% to over €5.25 billion.

EssilorLuxottica’s stock has dropped by 20%. Similarly, Accor stock has dropped by 19% as the company sees weak demand in key Middle East markets as the war continues. Other top laggards in the index were companies like Airbus, Stellantis, Hermes, Renault, Safran, and LVMH.

On the other hand, companies like TotalEnergies, Dassault Systèmes, Euronext, ENGIE, and AXA were among the top gainers in this period.

CAC 40 Index technical analysis 

CAC 40 Index chart  |Source: TradingView 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the CAC 40 Index has slipped sharply in the past few weeks, moving from a high of €8,645 in February to the current €7,800. It has dropped below the key support level at €7,883, its lowest level in November last year.

The stock has already plunged below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level of 74 to the current 32. The Percentage Price Oscillator has dropped below the zero line.

Therefore, the index will remain under pressure in the coming days or weeks and then bounce back when signs of the war ending start showing. It may drop to the key support level at €7,500 and then bounce back.

The post What next for the CAC 40 Index as it sinks into a correction? appeared first on Invezz

The FTSE 250 Index has moved into a correction after falling by 10% from its highest point this year. It dropped to £21,500, its lowest level since November 2025, amid concerns about the ongoing Iran war and its impact on inflation.

UK mid-cap stocks have moved into a correction 

The FTSE 250 Index has dropped in the past few weeks as global equities continued their downward trend amid the ongoing Iran war.

This war has led to a surge in energy prices in the UK, with oil and gas prices rising by over 50% since the war started in February.

UK gas prices surged on Thursday after Iran bombed the biggest natural gas plant in Qatar, leading to substantial damage that analysts believe will take months or years to repair.

As a result, the Bank of England(BoE) delivered a highly hawkish statement on Thursday. It left interest rates unchanged and hinted that it may deliver two rate hikes this year. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, believes that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged this year and then hike in 2027.

The BoE is contending with stagflation concerns, which is characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. The most recent data showed that UK inflation remains above 3.8% in January, while the economic growth has largely stagnated.

Top UK stocks have plunged 

Most companies in the FTSE 250 Index have plunged in the past few 30 days as the Iran war has continued.

Vistry Group, a top UK housebuilder, has dropped by 50% in the last 30 days as demand for houses drop. The company has slashed prices more aggressively than rivals as demand wanes. A recent report by RBC noted that 43% of its listed homes have had price cuts. Other companies like Barratt, Redrow, and Persimmon have all plunged in the past few months.

Wizz Air stock has plunged by 38% in the last 30 days as jet fuel prices have surged. Other airline companies like IAG and EasyJet have all plunged in the past few weeks.

Aston Martin stock price has dropped by 37% in the last 30 days as the company has dropped sharply in the past few months. Indeed, its stock has dropped by over 90% from its highest point on record. This decline happened as its sales have tumbled and its debt has jumped.

Close Brothers stock dropped by 28% in the last 30 days. This decline happened after a short seller announced that it will likely pay more money to settle insurance claims. The other top laggards in the FTSE 250 Index were companies like Hays and PageGroup, two popular names in the hiring industry.

Other laggards were companies like Bellway, Genuit Group, Atalaya Mining, and Carnival Group. On the other hand, companies like Trustpilot, Ithaca Energy, Harbour Energy, Softcat, and Mony Group were the top gainers.

FTSE 250 Index technical analysis 

FTSE 250 Index chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily chart shows that the FTSE 250 Index has slumped in the past few weeks, moving from a high of £23,756 to the current £21,560.

It has dropped below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, confirming that bearish outlook. It has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at £23,213.

The Relative Strength Index and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have continued falling and are at the lowest level in months. Therefore, the index will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key target at £21,000.

The post Top shares dragging the FTSE 250 Index as it drops into a correction appeared first on Invezz

Rivian stock remains on edge today, March 20, as investors focus on the large investment and order from Uber. After rising by nearly 4% on Thursday, the stock pulled back by over 1% on Friday as traders sold the recent news.

Uber’s investment in Rivian provides it with the much-needed cash

Rivian stock is in the spotlight after Uber revealed a plan to invest $1.25 billion in it. In return, Rivian will help the company deploy up to 50,000 robotaxis through 2031. 

As part of the deal, Uber committed to buy 10,000 autonomous versions of the upcoming R2 vehicle. R2 is a smaller version of the existing Rivian vehicles that is aimed at the mass market. It will start selling at $57,990, lower than the existing models that start at $70,000. 

Rivian plans to launch a cheaper R2 vehicle starting at $45,000 in 2027, and another R3 model after that. 

According to the statement, Uber will invest the first $300 million in Rivian later this year. The other four tranches will happen through 2031. At the same time, Uber will pay Rivian some licensing fees to use its autonomous driving system.

Rivian has made some major deals in the past, with the most significant one being its partnership with Volkswagen. Its $5.8 billion partnership with Volkswagen has seen it provide software-related services to the giant automaker.

Uber, on its part, has made several deals as it seeks to leverage autonomous technology to cut costs. It has deals with companies like Lucid and Stellantis, the parent of Jeep and Chrysler. 

READ MORE: Rivian stock forecast: Wyckoff theory points to long‑term rebound

Analysts predict Rivian’s revenue growth to continue

One potential catalyst for the Rivian stock price is that the ongoing Iran war has led to a surge in energy prices. Gasoline and diesel prices have jumped by over 40% since the Iran war started. As such, there is a possibility that more American customers will shift from ICE vehicles to EVs.

Data compiled by Yahoo Finance shows that analysts predict that its annual revenue will jump by 30% this year, driven by the upcoming R2 vehicles. This growth will then be supercharged by 65% next year to over $11.4 billion. 

Most importantly, Rivian is now on a path towards profitability. Its earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be a loss of $2.96, an improvement from $3 last year. It will then lose $2.44 next year.

There are two main risks that will cloud this outlook. The first one is that the R2 vehicles may not sell as rapidly as Wall Street analysts predict.

Also, the company may be forced to raise more money because of the stubbornly high cash burn. It ended last year with over $6 billion in cash, which may run out in the coming quarters.

Rivian stock price technical analysis

RIVN stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the RIVN stock price has remained in a narrow range. As a result, it has slowly formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are nearing their confluence.

The stock is consolidating at the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. Also, the Awesome Oscillator remains slightly above the zero line. Therefore, with the symmetrical triangle nearing its confluence, chances are that it will have a big move in either direction in the coming weeks. The key support and resistance levels will be at $10 and $20.

The post Rivian stock price eyes a big move after Uber deal: will it rise or crash? appeared first on Invezz

The HSBC share price has slumped and moved into a correction after falling by 12% from its highest point this year. It has dropped to 1,210p, mirroring the performance of other European banks. So, will it rebound as the company plans more job cuts amid its AI investment?

HSBC plans massive job cuts 

HSBC, the biggest bank in Europe, continues to implement a turnaround, a move meant to improve its position in the Asian market. It has scaled back its international business by exiting its markets like Argentina, France, and the United States.

HSBC also merged divisions and moved some of its senior executives to Hong Kong, as it continues to target Chinese clients. It intensified this presence by acquiring Hang Seng Bank, a company it already had a stake in.

Now, the company is aiming to continue this turnaround by laying off at least 20,000 workers in the coming years. Most of the workers who will be affected are the non-client-facing customers in global service centers. Many of these roles will be replaced by artificial intelligence tools.

The company has already shed thousands of jobs under Georges Elhedery, a move that has reduced its costs in the past few years. It expects to achieve $1.5 billion in cost savings in the first half of the year, six months ahead of schedule.

HSBC’s business is doing well 

The most recent results showed that HSBC’s business is doing relatively well, a trend that may continue in the coming months.

Its profit before tax came in at $29.9 billion, down by $2.4 billion from a year earlier. This decline was mostly because of a $4.9 billion increase in adverse impact from notable items. Some of these items were because of its stake in Bank of Communications and the sale of its French portfolio.

Other metrics in its report were much higher than expected. For example, its revenue jumped to $68.3 billion last year, up by $2.4 billion in the previous year.

Additionally, the company’s guidance pointed to sustained growth, with the Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) rising to 17% in the next three years, with its annual revenue growing by 5% in the same period. Also, it expects that the net interest income (NII) will be at least $45 billion this year.

HSBC share price technical analysis

HSBC stock chart | Source: TradingView

The three-day chart shows that the HSBC stock price has pulled back in the past few weeks, moving from 1,374p in February to the current 1,210p. 

A closer look shows that the stock has formed a harami candlestick pattern, which is characterized by a small bullish candle that settles inside a big bearish candle. A harami candle is a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis.

The stock has remained above the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Therefore, there is a possibility that it will bounce back, and possibly retest the year-to-date high of 1,375p. 

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The DAX Index slumped by over 2% on Thursday and is hovering at its lowest level this year as energy prices surged, making most companies in the index less competitive. It dropped to €23,000, its lowest level since March 9th, and nearly 10% below its highest point this year. 

German stocks plunge amid the ongoing energy prices

The DAX 40 Index retreated as investors reacted to the latest energy price surge. Data shows that European gas prices jumped by 22% on Thursday, bringing the year-to-date gains to 137%. These gas prices have jumped by nearly 60% from the same period last year.

Other energy prices have surged as well. For example, Brent, the global benchmark, has jumped by 90% this year and by 62% in the last 12 months. Coal has also jumped by 30% this year.

Soaring energy prices are risky for the German economy because of its impact on inflation and the cost of doing business. That’s because many of these companies are in energy-intensive industries, which will make them highly uncompetitive.

Some of the most exposed companies are in the automotive industry, which are finding major challenges, including the ongoing competition from Chinese companies like Xiaomi, BYD, and Li Auto. Already, Volkswagen has announced that it would cut over 50,000 jobs by 2030.

The rising crude oil price surge has led to concerns about inflation in the region, making it hard for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates. 

A report released on Wednesday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 1.7% in January to 1.9% in February, while the core CPI rose from 2.2% to 2.4%.

Consequently, European bond yields have continued rising this month. Data shows the German government bond yields jumped to 2.98% on Thursday, up from the year-to-date low of 2.64%.

A report by Bloomberg notes that the European Central Bank will now hike interest rates two times this year as it battles the elevated consumer inflation.

Most DAX Index constituents are in the red today. Vonovia stock price dropped by 8.95% on Thursday, making it the top laggard in the index. This retreat happened even after the company announced its first profit in years.

Siemens Energy stock dropped by 4.4%, while companies like Infineon, Siemens, Heidelberg Materials, Adidas, BASF, and Continental fell by over 2.95%.

DAX Index technical analysis 

DAX Index chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily chart shows that the DAX Index formed a double-top pattern at €25,500 and a neckline at €24,263. A double-top is one of the most common bearish reversal signs in technical analysis.

The stock is attempting to form a mini death cross pattern, which happens when the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) make a bearish crossover pattern. 

A break below the key support level at €22,927, its lowest level on November 21, will point to more downside, potentially to €22,000.

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The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has slumped to its lowest level since February 4 this year. SCHD has dropped by 4.40% from its highest point this year, and this trend may continue falling before rebounding.

SCHD ETF stock has dropped as American shares dump 

The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF has suffered a big drop in the past few weeks, mirroring the performance of other American stock indices.

Most of its constituents have dropped after the start of the US-Iran war. However, unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, it is better positioned to handle the ongoing crisis.

That’s because the energy segment is the biggest part of the fund, with a 20% share. This includes companies like ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and EOG Resources. Most of these stocks have done well as crude oil and natural gas prices have soared.

Other large companies in the index are not highly affected by the ongoing Iran war. The health care segment is another major one, accounting for about 16.3%. This includes companies like Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, Amgen, and AbbVie. Like in the energy segment, the health care one is not highly exposed to the ongoing war.

The same is happening in other large companies like Texas Instruments, Verizon, Altria, and PepsiCo. 

Meanwhile, the fund has a minimal presence in the technology industry, which has come under pressure as analysts start to question the potential for an AI bubble. 

Hawkish Federal Reserve 

The SCHD ETF has retreated amid the ongoing fear that the Federal Reserve will embrace a more hawkish tone amid the ongoing Iran war. In a statement on Wednesday, the bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%.

Officials signaled that they were concerned about the rising inflation data as energy, transportation, and fertilizer costs jumped. As a result, analysts believe that the bank will deliver at least two interest rate hikes this year. 

Historically, the SCHD ETF tends to beat the broader market whenever the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates because it is made up of value stocks.

Data shows that the fund is relatively undervalued compared with the broader market. The SCHD has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19, lower than the S&P 500 Index average of 23. Its price-to-cash-flow of 10 is also lower than that of the broader market.

SCHD ETF stock technical analysis

Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF has slumped in the past few days. It has dropped from a record high of $31.95 to the current $30.60. 

The ongoing retreat has brought the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from the overbought level of 86 to the current 40. Also, the Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the oversold level.

Therefore, the stock will likely remain under pressure for a while and then stage a strong comeback. If this happens, it may drop to the 23.6% retracement level at $29.85 and then resume the uptrend.

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The South African rand is staging a comeback this week, paring back some of the recent losses that started in February. The USD/ZAR exchange rate dropped to 16.62, down modestly from this month’s high of 16.96. So, will the pair continue falling or rebound ahead of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?

South African rand rises as consumer inflation falls 

The USD/ZAR pair continued its strong downward trend on Wednesday after the country’s statistics agency published the latest inflation report.

This report showed that the country’s inflation cooled in February before the Iran war started. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in February compared with 3.5% a month earlier. This report was slightly better than the median estimate of 3.1%.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped from 3.4% in January to 3% in February. However, the two gauges rose 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively on a month-on-month basis.

Still, February’s inflation report is seen as a lame duck as it happened before the Iran war started. This war will likely have an impact on inflation in South Africa and other countries as it has pushed crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices higher.

Therefore, analysts believe that SARB will leave interest rates unchanged at 6.75% in the upcoming meeting on March 26. Pausing its rate cuts will help officials assess the impact of the ongoing war on inflation in the country.

The ongoing war has led to South African rand and bonds being sold by foreigners. Data shows that non-residents sold $2.45 billion of government bonds last week, the biggest outflow since 2019. This is a big turnaround as these investors bought bonds and stocks in the first two months of the year.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision 

The most immediate catalyst for the USD/ZAR pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which comes later today.

Economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. 

Jerome Powell and other officials are concerned about inflation, which is expected to keep rising in the coming months as energy prices jump. Analysts believe that inflation will rise to 3% if oil prices remain above $95.

Still, the bank is concerned about stagflation, a situation where high inflation coincides with a high unemployment rate. The most recent data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February. 

Another report showed that the economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of last year. 

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart  |Source: TradingView  

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has rebounded in the past two months, moving from a low of 15.64 to a high of 16.95 this month.

This rebound happened after the pair formed a double-bottom pattern and a neckline at 16.42, its highest level in February this year.

It has now pulled back this week as oil prices have largely stabilized. Still, it remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has also remained above the Supertrend indicator.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend in the coming days, potentially to the year-to-date high of 16.95. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance level at 17.50.

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