Nvidia investors, long accustomed to stellar forecasts, faced a dose of uncertainty after the chipmaker left China-related sales out of its latest outlook.

The Nvidia stock slipped about 2% in premarket trading on Thursday, despite the company beating Wall Street estimates and signalling continued strong growth ahead.

The absence of projected revenue from its H20 chips in China—one of the world’s most critical semiconductor markets—cast a shadow over what otherwise looked like another record-setting quarter for the Silicon Valley giant.

Chief Executive Jensen Huang underlined the scale of the opportunity, noting that China alone could represent as much as $50 billion in potential sales this year if the firm were able to fully access the market.

Revenue climbs 56% but data centre sales miss raises questions on AI demand growth

For the second quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $46.7 billion, up 56% from the same period last year.

Its data centre division, which has become the backbone of its AI chip dominance, generated $41.1 billion in sales.

The figure was just short of analyst expectations, according to Visible Alpha data, and prompted questions about whether demand from cloud providers is showing early signs of slowing.

Looking ahead, Nvidia forecast revenue of $54 billion for the current quarter, above Wall Street estimates of $53.8 billion.

Analysts noted that the forecast explicitly excluded potential contributions from H20 shipments to China, which some had factored into their models.

US-China trade war casts long shadow

Nvidia has found itself at the centre of the technology trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The Trump administration temporarily restricted exports of the H20 chip, designed to comply with US rules governing sales to China, before later easing the restrictions.

However, officials have indicated that 15% of any revenue from licensed shipments may be directed to the US government.

The uncertainty has left investors and analysts speculating about how much momentum Nvidia can sustain in the absence of Chinese sales.

Jensen Huang said the Chinese market could grow by 50% annually, underscoring the scale of the opportunity at stake.

Analysts weigh in on outlook

Market watchers expressed a range of views on the results and outlook.

Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets said he was encouraged by Nvidia’s forecast, which came in strong even without China shipments.

“The stock likely ran too far too fast into the print,” he said, adding that he expects a “dumbed down” version of the chips may ultimately be allowed as part of trade negotiations.

Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners pointed to weaker-than-hoped growth in data centre sales, calling the results a concern given Nvidia’s elevated market position.

“These results are good for a normal company in normal times, but Nvidia is neither,” he said.

Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson argued that guidance disappointment stemmed entirely from excluding China, while Bob O’Donnell of Technalysis Research suggested that the modest miss in data centre revenue could be an early signal of a slowdown in AI infrastructure build-out.

Meanwhile, Richard Clode of Janus Henderson Investors said the debate now shifts to the durability of Nvidia’s growth.

“At this cadence, we’re going to get there fairly quickly,” he said of the company’s path to a trillion-dollar annualised run rate.

Can Nvidia’s m-cap touch $5 tn by 2026?

Despite the trade overhang, many analysts remain bullish on Nvidia’s long-term prospects.

Wedbush analysts called the quarter “another validation of the AI revolution” and reiterated that the broader chip landscape remains dominated by Nvidia.

The firm said any stock pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity, noting that Nvidia’s market capitalisation could approach $5 trillion by early 2026.

The debate over whether Nvidia can continue its rapid climb now hinges on how quickly Chinese sales can resume and whether demand from hyperscalers and enterprises remains as strong as expected.

For now, the company has once again delivered on revenue growth, but investors are left questioning whether the AI boom can withstand the pressures of geopolitics.

The post Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in appeared first on Invezz

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for the fifth consecutive meeting, maintaining its benchmark rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

The decision, which comes amid growing political pressure from President Trump and rising economic uncertainty from looming tariffs, reflects the central bank’s continued “wait-and-see” approach.

Chair Jerome Powell is set to release a policy statement at 2 pm in Washington, followed by a press conference in which he is expected to reiterate the Fed’s focus on data-driven decision-making.

Despite consistent calls from President Trump to slash rates sharply, the Fed has opted for caution, holding borrowing costs steady while assessing the impact of economic headwinds.

“He’ll again emphasise patience,” Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients, pointing to “considerable uncertainty” that tariffs bring to the economic outlook.

The next major inflexion point for monetary policy is likely to come in September, when officials will have more clarity from fresh jobs and inflation data.

Pressure builds as Trump intensifies criticism

The timing of this week’s meeting is politically charged.

President Trump has escalated his attacks on Powell, accusing the central bank of “strangling growth” by keeping interest rates elevated.

Trump has called for immediate and significant rate cuts, citing the threat of global recession and the need to counter the drag from tariffs he plans to impose on Friday.

So far, Fed officials have resisted political pressure, emphasising their independence.

But the president’s influence looms, especially as he has appointed multiple members to the Fed’s board and recently elevated Michelle W. Bowman to the vice chair for supervision.

“The Fed could have cut interest rates by now if not for the inflation uncertainty caused by tariffs,” Powell said earlier this month.

His comments reflect concern that price increases stemming from trade barriers may complicate the Fed’s ability to manage inflation and growth.

Tariffs cloud inflation outlook

Policymakers have been wary of Trump’s aggressive trade agenda, which threatens to disrupt price stability.

Tariffs imposed on goods from Japan and the European Union—set at 15%—and anticipated levies of up to 20% on other trading partners could raise consumer prices further and dampen economic activity.

While some companies have temporarily shielded customers from the brunt of tariff hikes by drawing from stockpiles built in advance, those inventories are now nearly exhausted.

Businesses may soon face a difficult choice: raise prices or accept lower profit margins.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, inflation began rising more noticeably in June, though still remains below earlier projections.

Powell has acknowledged that the inflation impact from tariffs could come “sooner or later than expected,” adding to the overall uncertainty.

Debate grows within the Fed: historic split vote expected?

Although the Fed’s policy-setting committee has so far acted in unison, internal disagreements are becoming more apparent.

Two Trump-appointed governors, Christopher J. Waller and Michelle W. Bowman, have openly called for rate cuts, potentially as early as this week.

Waller, seen as a potential successor to Powell, has warned that the central bank should act preemptively to support the labor market.

“We should not wait until the labour market deteriorates,” he said in a speech last week.

If Waller and Bowman dissent, it would mark the first such split vote among board members since December 1993.

Others within the Fed remain focused on inflation, with some cautioning that lowering rates prematurely could undermine efforts to contain price pressures.

Tuesday’s job openings data showed that while companies are slowing hiring, they are not yet reducing headcount—a sign of resilience in the labour market.

Markets brace for signals on September

While markets see virtually no chance of a rate cut at this meeting—CME Group’s FedWatch tool pegs the odds at just 2%—expectations are rising for September.

Futures suggest a 66% probability of a cut at the next meeting on Sept. 17, by which time the Fed will have two additional months of jobs and inflation data.

Economists are split. Some argue that September is too soon to act, particularly if inflation remains sticky or the economy shows continued strength.

Others say Powell could use this week’s meeting to provide more concrete guidance about what conditions would warrant easing.

Even if Powell doesn’t offer a clear timeline, analysts expect him to begin framing the debate more explicitly.

He has said repeatedly that policy decisions are made “meeting by meeting,” and that he won’t commit to a specific schedule.

“The reality remains that the performance of the real economy also has a vote,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Eyes on July’s job report

Friday’s release of July employment data will provide a clearer snapshot of the labour market’s health and could help tip the scales in the Fed’s internal debate.

Any signs of a slowdown could boost the case for an earlier rate cut.

For now, Powell is likely to stay the course, emphasising that while the Fed is open to adjusting policy if needed, it needs to see a clearer signal from incoming data.

The post FOMC meeting today: Fed expected to hold rates amid tariff uncertainty, but internal dissent likely appeared first on Invezz

Russia is likely to export more wheat during the 2025-26 season compared with last year, according to prominent agricultural consultancy SovEcon. 

SovEcon has increased its projection for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 season to 43.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 0.4 mmt. 

This follows an estimated 40.8 mmt of wheat shipped from Russia in the 2024-25 season. Despite a slow start, SovEcon anticipates a rise in export activity in the near future.

The US Department of Agriculture estimated Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 at 46.0 mmt.

The forecast for wheat exports has been adjusted upwards due to a re-evaluation of the wheat crop estimate, SovEcon said. 

The new production estimate now stands at 83.6 mmt, an increase from the previous 83.0 mmt. 

The upward revision is attributed to favorable improvements in the crop conditions observed specifically within the central regions of Russia, indicating a healthier and more robust yield than initially anticipated.

Slow start

The consultancy said in its latest update:

The new export season got off to a slow start. 

SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in July to average 2.1 mmt. 

This figure represents a significant decline compared to the 3.9 mmt exported during the same period a year earlier. 

Furthermore, it falls considerably short of the five-year average for July wheat exports, which stands at 3.1 mmt.

This sharp reduction in export volume could be attributed to several factors. Potential reasons include a lower-than-expected harvest, internal market demand, logistical challenges, or shifts in global wheat prices and demand. 

However, in the coming months, SovEcon expects monthly shipments of wheat from Russia to increase to 4-5 mmt and higher as the new crop reaches the spot markets. 

Weak prices to support exports

The Russian wheat market is experiencing a significant shift, with weakening domestic prices may support export competitiveness. This trend is particularly evident in the average prices for 12.5% protein wheat in the European part of Russia.

Analysis of recent price movements reveals a clear downward trajectory. By the end of July, the average price for 12.5% protein wheat type had fallen to 14,175 rubles per metric ton (equivalent to approximately $182/mt). 

This represents a noticeable decrease from earlier in the month, when prices stood at 14,500 rubles per metric ton ($185/mt) in early July. 

Looking further back, the decline is even more pronounced when compared to June, a period when prices were considerably higher at 14,975 rubles per metric ton ($190/mt).

This consistent depreciation in domestic wheat prices provides a substantial advantage for Russian exporters. 

Lower internal costs allow them to offer more competitive prices on the international market, thereby boosting demand for Russian wheat and potentially increasing the volume of exports. 

Exchange rate and global competition

“The ruble exchange rate will be an important factor for exports,” SovEcon said. 

The Russian currency has shown unexpected strength in recent months.

On July 30, the dollar exchange rate on Forex reached 81.84 rubles, marking its highest point since early May.

A 2-point interest rate cut to 18% and a fresh ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to the Kremlin preceded the ruble’s weakening, according to SovEcon.

Globally, Russia is expected to encounter stiff competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine will be a significant contender, even with its current season’s limitations on agricultural exports to the EU.

France’s wheat crop has shown significant improvement over last year’s poor performance, leading to expectations of increased activity later in the season.

Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said:

Following an abnormally weak start, we expect Russian exports to accelerate, which will put pressure on global prices.

The post SovEcon raises forecast for Russian wheat exports; shipments to accelerate after slow start appeared first on Invezz

22V Research chief investment officer Jordi Visser says Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is the “S&P 500 of the future.”

With digital assets, including Ethereum, gaining traction, and the “GENIUS Act” becoming a law, Visser believes the current cycle marks a turning point in crypto’s mainstream adoption.

Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous high and is now trading near $120,000, but according to Visser, who spoke in a recent interview with CNBC, the cryptocurrency still has substantial upside potential.

What Bitcoin as the S&P 500 of the future means

Visser’s comparison of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 isn’t just metaphorical – it’s a strategic framing of Bitcoin as a foundational asset in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

As artificial intelligence (AI) disrupts traditional industries, Visser argues that BTC represents a resilient store of value outside the legacy financial system.

He sees it as a hedge against systemic change, much like how the S&P 500 reflects the health of corporate America.

In his view, Bitcoin will increasingly anchor portfolios in the years ahead, especially as stablecoins and digital assets become more integrated into everyday transactions.

It’s not just a tech bet – it’s a macro hedge.

Bitcoin vs crypto-proxies: Visser picks a side

According to Jordi Visser, choosing between buying Bitcoin or investing in crypto-proxies instead depends primarily on the investor’s risk tolerance.  

Those interested in chasing higher upside, albeit with more volatility, he recommends building a position in proxies like MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC.

Personally, however, Visser favours direct exposure to Bitcoin as it’s a more stable and strategic long-term play.

While companies like Bitmine Immersion or Bit Digital offer alternative routes to gain exposure to the crypto market, the 22V Research chief investment officer continues to see BTC as the most reliable asset in a world of accelerating technological disruption.

Note that Bitcoin has materially outperformed the benchmark stock market indices this year, and is currently up well over 50% versus its year-to-date low in early April.

Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin?

Speaking with CNBC, Visser revealed the most common question he receives from traditional fiat investors is: “Am I too late” in building a position in the likes of Bitcoin?

His answer is a resounding no. Visser believes many sceptics will eventually own BTC – they just won’t admit it publicly.

Drawing parallels to hidden voter behaviour in political polls, Visser argues the leading crypto’s growing legitimacy makes it harder to ignore.

The 22V Research expert maintains a bold price target of $200K for Bitcoin this year, underscoring his belief in its long-term potential.

As AI adoption accelerates and stablecoins become more prevalent, Visser sees Bitcoin as a necessary hedge in portfolios navigating an uncertain future.

The post Bitcoin dubbed the ‘S&P 500 of the future’: here’s what it means appeared first on Invezz

A recent trade agreement between the EU Commission and US leadership has set a challenging target for the EU, requiring it to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy goods within three years. 

This commitment, alongside a new 15% import tariff on EU goods entering the US, raises significant doubts about the EU’s ability to meet the ambitious energy import goal, given current trade figures.

The three-year timeline corresponds to imports of $250 billion per year, or around $21 billion per month, according to Commerzbank AG. 

Data from Eurostat reveals that the EU imported an average of EUR 31.8 billion worth of energy goods in total per month in the first quarter of this year, similar to the level of the first quarter of the previous year.

This aligns with a decrease in import volume, though at marginally increased prices, according to Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG.

“The share of imports attributed to the US was EUR 17.8 billion in the first quarter, which is around USD 7 billion per month — far from the required USD 21 billion,” Fritsch said. 

Hence, it is highly doubtful that the EU will be able to fulfill the promised purchases.

Increase in LNG shipments

An increase in US LNG shipments appears to be the most plausible. 

EU’s reliance on Russian LNG imports, which currently account for 17% of total EU LNG imports, is set to decrease. 

These imports have historically made up 50% of total EU LNG imports. The EU plans to completely cease gas imports from Russia, creating room for increased LNG imports from other sources, particularly the US.

Despite this, the US may not fully bridge the financial gap created by the reduction in Russian imports. 

Even if the US fully compensates for the loss of Russian LNG, it would only amount to just over $1 billion per month in additional imports from the US, according to Commerzbank. 

Based on the first quarter’s values, if Russian LNG were entirely replaced by US LNG, it would result in only EUR 0.3 billion more in monthly imports from the US.

A significant increase in US gas prices or a substantial price premium of US LNG over Russian LNG would be necessary to achieve a more notable boost in Europe’s US imports. 

The current “deficit” of $14 billion will not be covered by these expected changes.

This is noteworthy as previously Commerzbank had reported that the current level of Russian LNG imports already exceeds the additional US LNG exports anticipated by the EIA this year.

Coal

The outlook for US coal imports to the EU is particularly bleak. 

The EU’s total coal imports were under $3 billion, with the US accounting for roughly 30% of this figure. 

Compounding the challenge is the substantial drop in overall EU coal imports, which have more than halved since early 2023 (according to Eurostat quarterly data). 

Consequently, a significant increase in imports from the US is improbable, especially given the anticipated decline in coal power within the EU in the coming years due to climate objectives, Fritsch said.

Petroleum oil imports constituted the largest share of EU energy imports in the first quarter, making up about 60%.

The US contributed roughly $10 billion, accounting for 15% of these imports.

Prospects for oil 

The likelihood of the EU significantly increasing its imports of crude oil and oil products from the US in the future appears low, 

From January to April 2024, US oil exports to EU countries averaged approximately 2.25 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

At an oil price of $70, this volume translates to an annual value of $57.5 billion.

Of these exports, crude oil constituted nearly 1.6 million barrels per day, followed by natural gas liquids (NGLs) at 270,000 barrels per day, and diesel at 180,000 barrels per day. 

While US crude oil exports to the EU have shown consistent growth over the past eight years, rising from 200,000 barrels per day, they currently represent almost 40% of total US crude exports. 

“A further significant increase in US crude oil exports therefore seems unlikely, especially as US crude oil production is expected to stagnate until the end of 2026,” Fritsch said. 

Diesel imports 

Fritsch said:

There is, however, some room for improvement in diesel shipments. 

While there is potential for improvement in diesel shipments, current levels are significantly lower than in previous years, such as 300,000 barrels per day in 2013. 

However, a substantial short-term increase is unlikely due to very low US distillate stocks, which limit available diesel for export. 

A significant expansion of US diesel production is also improbable, as refinery utilisation is already near full capacity at 95%. 

Increased crude oil processing would further reduce crude oil available for export, thereby limiting the EU’s ability to increase imports of crude oil and oil products from the US.

The post Analysis: EU’s ambitious US energy import target faces major hurdles appeared first on Invezz

Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MRVL) rallied as much as 10% on Wednesday morning after announcing a strategic alliance with Rebellions Inc – a South Korean artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker.

The new partnership aims at building custom AI infrastructure tailored to regional and sovereign-backed initiatives across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

Marvell stock has been in a sharp uptrend in recent months, and is currently up over 70% versus its year-to-date low in the first week of April.

Why Rebellions partnership is significant for Marvell stock

Rebellions partnership marks a strategic pivot for MRVL toward highly specialized AI systems.

Instead of relying on generic GPU-based architectures, it aims at co-developing domain-specific accelerators using Marvell’s advanced chip packaging and interconnect technologies.

The collaboration aligns with a broader trend in artificial intelligence infrastructure, where regional governments and cloud providers seek scalable, energy-efficient solutions tailored to local needs.

By tapping into sovereign-backed initiatives, Marvell gains access to new markets and longer-term contracts – which could translate to a higher MRVL share price over time.

In short, this collaboration reinforces Marvell’s reputation as a custom silicon provider, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for AI inference at scale.

Why Microsoft earnings could give MRVL shares a boost?

Marvell shares are rallying this morning also because investors believe Microsoft Corp’s earnings on Wednesday, after the bell, will prove a tailwind for the Wilmington-headquartered firm.

MSFT could highlight continued strength in cloud services and artificial intelligence integration– and since MRVL supplies custom silicon for data center applications, strong results from Microsoft could signal rising demand for its infrastructure solutions.

Investors often view Microsoft performance as a bellwether for enterprise tech spending, and any upside surprise could reinforce bullish sentiment around Marvell’s exposure to hyperscale cloud providers.

With AI workloads expanding and custom chips gaining traction, MSFT earnings could serve as indirect validation of the firm’s strategic direction, especially in the context of its recent partnership with Rebellions.

Is it too late to invest in Marvell Technology Inc?

While MRVL stock has already experienced a significant rally since early April, it may still have further upside for long-term investors.  

Marvell offers robust fundamentals, reflecting confidence in its AI and data centre roadmap. Its custom infrastructure solutions position it well in a market increasingly favoring specialized chips over standardized GPUs.

The company’s strategic partnerships and fast-growing addressable market suggest Marvell stock isn’t just riding a news cycle – it’s building a foundation for sustained growth.

Investors could also take heart in the fact that Wall Street currently has a consensus “buy” rating on MRVL shares with a mean target of about $90 (according to data from the Wall Street Journal) indicating potential upside of another 10% from current levels.

The post What made Marvell stock pop 10% on Wednesday? appeared first on Invezz

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for a third straight meeting on Wednesday as expected, as it treaded carefully amid global trade tensions.

While the immediate danger of an all-out global trade war may have receded, confusion regarding US trade policy still looms over the Canadian economic landscape.

“Since April, the risk of a severe and escalating global trade conflict has diminished,” the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy report. “Nevertheless, how US trade policy will unfold remains highly uncertain.”

For the second consecutive quarter, the Bank of Canada declined to make official economic estimates, instead outlining three alternative scenarios moulded by the direction of global tariffs.

Three scenarios, one message: Uncertainty persists

Rather than providing point forecasts, the bank presented a range of possible outcomes.

In the baseline scenario, which assumes that present tariffs on steel, aluminium, autos, and non-compliant imports under a continental free trade agreement are maintained, Canada’s GDP is expected to decrease by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2025.

Growth would then pick up modestly, increasing by 1% in the second half of the year before reaching 1.8% in 2027.

In this scenario, inflation is expected to remain close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for the next two years.

In other scenarios, it examines the easing and intensifying of global tariffs. De-escalation would lead to a decline in tariffs, thereby enhancing growth prospects and mitigating inflation.

On the other hand, a situation with higher tariffs would be a drag on the economy and raise immediate cost pressures.

Governor Tiff Macklem stressed the conditionality of future policy changes. “Canada’s economy is demonstrating resiliency thus far… Inflation is approaching our 2% objective, but we detect signs of underlying inflationary pressures,” he said.

Eyes on August 1: US tariff threat looms

Both the markets and policymakers are watching closely as the US and Canada attempt to hammer out a new trade agreement ahead of the August 1st tariffs deadline.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to levy 35% tariffs on some Canadian exports should an agreement not be reached, a situation which could very well change the BoC’s current wait-and-see approach quite drastically.

In reaction to such dangers, Macklem stated, “We will be closely following tariff developments and assessing indicators of underlying inflation.”

“If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate,” he added.

Rate cuts are still on the table

Although the BoC has paused its aggressive easing program, which saw interest rates drop by 225 basis points beginning in June of last year, it remains open to future rate reduction if economic conditions worsen.

“The Bank appears to be getting a little more comfortable with the idea that the Canadian economy will require additional interest rate cuts in the future,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

“It is not there yet, and upcoming data will remain more important.”

Market pricing currently indicates a more than 81% chance of another rate hold in September, with traders not expecting any additional cuts for the rest of the year.

Markets react cautiously

The Canadian dollar fell 0.30% after the Bank of Canada’s pronouncement, trading at 1.3811 to the US dollar, or 72.41 cents.

The loonie’s movement reflected both the central bank’s dovish tone and broad-based rise in the US currency.

“While this latest decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected, the BoC retains an easing bias in its most recent set of communications,” said Nick Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd.

“Any decision to resume cutting, however, is once again seemingly predicated on the Governing Council gaining more clarity over an uncertain outlook, suggesting to us that further rate cuts may be some time away yet.”

Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, also noted a dovish tone in the bank’s communications.

“I assumed there was a bone thrown to the doves here. “They’ve certainly left the door open for further rate cuts if inflation moderates or the economy weakens.”

A balanced but cautious approach

Overall, the BoC maintained a cautious tone, acknowledging signals of resilience such as strong job growth and stable core inflation but staying wary of downside risks.

Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities, welcomed the central bank’s flexibility.

“The Bank of Canada is making a sensible decision by leaving as many alternatives open as possible. Rather than having just one option, people are choosing several scenarios,” he explained.

Kelvin continued to state that “what is evident to me is that they are unwilling to declare that the worst is behind them. Despite the high job numbers, some caution is advised.”

“They’re not panicked, and they’re not certain that the economy is safe, so they’re simply trying to adopt a balanced approach as a result,” he concluded.

With key trade decisions coming and inflation pressures still at play, the Bank of Canada is in wait-and-see mode, keeping steady but far from declaring triumph.

The post Bank of Canada holds rate at 2.75%, keeps easing bias amid trade uncertainty appeared first on Invezz

Morgan Stanley has published an update to its Latin American model portfolio, which incorporates a more diversified approach by boosting exposure to Argentina, while keeping Brazil as its biggest overweight in the region.

The bank’s first allocation changes come in a year in which emerging markets saw the largest capital inflows since 2008, as a weaker US dollar and a global diversification search boosted demand for riskier assets.

However, Morgan Stanley warns that all three countries do not have a convincing fundamental backdrop.

The bank notes that, while global liquidity has claimed many Latin American assets over the past 2025, structural challenges have yet to be dealt with.

Brazil’s growth rate is dropping, while Mexico’s is nearly unchanged.

With this environment in mind, Morgan Stanley is tactically raising (or decreasing) exposure in the near term to capitalize on opportunities judiciously.

Brazil: A barbell approach in a transitional economy

Brazil is Morgan Stanley’s cornerstone in Latin America, earning an overweight rating.

The plan remains based on a “barbell” allocation, which balances financial services with industries related to energy, agriculture, and technology, collectively known as the “Texas trade.”

Morgan Stanley increased its investments in Klabin (KLBN11), a major pulp and paper company, and Vivara (VIVA3), a jewellery retail network.

Simultaneously, it sold Usiminas (USIM5) and reduced holdings in Rumo (RAIL3) and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3).

Despite maintaining an overweight posture, the bank is concerned about domestic consumption cyclicals, citing Brazil’s persistent budgetary challenges.

According to Morgan Stanley, the country’s GDP equation requires a significant change from consumption and government expenditure (C&G) to exports and investment.

The bank continues to favour financial services as the strongest domestic play, while commodity-linked sectors, particularly oil and agriculture, have the best risk-reward profile amid currency tailwinds.

Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, points to a paradox: foreign investment in Brazilian shares is at an all-time high, while local participation in the equity market is at historic low levels.

Lower global growth, exacerbated by US tariffs and volatility in oil and commodity prices, has been flagged as a significant risk to the investment thesis.

Argentina: betting on reform despite the risks

Morgan Stanley is raising its allocation to Argentina in a significant turn for its regional view.

The bank is raising its exposure to financial names, with added Banco Galicia to the portfolio.

Even though concerns remain over macroeconomic uncertainty and restructuring efforts persist, Morgan Stanley believes that the path of reforms and gradual stabilisation opens up favourable opportunities for Argentina.

Despite the still tricky economic environment, its decision signals increasing investor appetite for the policy-reopening upside.

Morgan Stanley acknowledges the increased risks but says investors with a high appetite for risk have asymmetric risk-adjusted returns right now.

Mexico: structural hurdles cloud the near-term view

Morgan Stanley’s outlook for Mexico continues to be cautious. The favourable trade positioning should boost the country, although political and regulatory risks are rising ahead of a review of the USMCA in 2026.

The bank cites poor corporate performance in the second quarter of 2025, with many Mexican companies falling short of sales targets.

High real salaries and cost pressures have eroded margins, and structural challenges remain in the electrical sector.

As a result, Morgan Stanley adjusted its Mexican portfolio by increasing exposure to Grupo México (GMEX), reducing its position in Orbia, and removing Alpek entirely.

Chile: attractive valuations, limited catalysts

Morgan Stanley continues to track Chile within the framework of “Andean Spring.”

This leaves valuations at attractive levels and the political outlook improving before the November 2026 elections.

The macro environment is also supported by higher savings rates.

However, the bank says identifying immediate catalysts to invest in is difficult.

Chile looks strong from a macro viewpoint (Morgan Stanley), but it seems to offer no truly attractive micro opportunities, so Morgan Stanley only moderately adjusts its Chilean exposure.

Conclusion: selective optimism amid uncertainty

Morgan Stanley’s new Latin America model portfolio demonstrates a selective and risk-aware approach.

While capital inflows and a weakened currency provide help, sluggish growth and fundamental issues continue to shape the regional environment.

The bank’s policy supports Brazil’s financials and commodities, takes a cautious approach to Mexico, bets on reform in Argentina, and is patient with Chile.

The post Morgan Stanley ups Argentine exposure in LatAm shift, maintains Brazil overweight appeared first on Invezz

Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ: PTON) soared nearly 20% on Wednesday after a senior UBS analyst issued an ultra-bullish note in its favour.

In her research note this morning, Arpine Kocharyan upgraded the connected fitness company to “buy” and raised her price target to $11 – indicating potential upside of over 80% on its previous close.

Peloton stock has gained rather significantly since early April but, even including today’s rally, is currently down some 8.0% versus its high on June 9^th.

What could drive Peloton stock up in the second half of 2025?

UBS analyst turned positive on PTON shares today mostly because “we’re seeing better data trends for the company in terms of traffic and active users.”

Arpine Kocharyan is convinced that net subscriber decline will stabilise in the coming year (FY26) – which she believes will help unlock significant further upside in Peloton stock.

According to her, interactive visits came in flattish on a year-over-year basis in June – a meaningful improvement from down 11% in May.

Moreover, “active users have turned positive in May/June after declines since beginning of the year” as well, the analyst told clients in her research note.

UBS is constructive on Peloton Interactive Inc because continued topline growth and executives’ commitment to cutting costs could also drive upside in the company’s 2026 EBITDA.

PTON shares may rally post Q2 earnings on August 7^th

Peloton has been actively engaged in reducing its showroom footprint to lower its debt in 2025.

The exercise equipment maker is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results on August 7^th.

Consensus is for it to lose 6 cents on a per-share basis in its fiscal Q2, narrower than the 8 cents a share it lost in the same quarter last year.

If the Nasdaq-listed firm managed to beat expectations next week, its earnings release could prove a major tailwind for PTON stock price to gain further in the second half of this year.

According to UBS analyst Kocharyan:

“We estimate +11-12% pricing increase in connected fitness subscription could drive roughly $90M-$100M of annualized revenue uplift, net of impact from higher churn, and upside to PTON’s $200M+ run rate cost saves target, with PTON also annualizing run rate cost saves in FY′26.”

Is it worth investing in Peloton Interactive Inc today?

All in all, if Peloton posts a better-than-expected report on August 7th, it could validate the UBS analyst’s bullish thesis and reignite investor confidence.

With improving user metrics, cost-cutting momentum, and potential pricing power, shares of the connected fitness company may be poised for a meaningful rebound – making the coming weeks pivotal for PTON stock trajectory.

What’s also worth mentioning is that UBS is not the only Wall Street firm that’s keeping bullish on Peloton shares ahead of the company’s upcoming Q2 earnings.

The consensus rating on Peloton Interactive currently sits at “overweight” with the mean target of about $9.40, indicating potential upside of another 30% from current levels.

The post UBS issues a bold call on Peloton stock, see PTON shares nearly doubling from here appeared first on Invezz

The US has slapped sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, citing concerns over his conduct in the criminal proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro.

This was announced by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday. The sanctions accuse Moraes of overstepping legal boundaries.

The Trump administration said that the judge ordered arbitrary pre-trial detentions and curbed freedom of expression.

Moraes is currently presiding over Bolsonaro’s trial, which centers on allegations that the former president attempted to cling to power through a coup after losing the 2022 election.

What’s behind the move?

Justice Alexandre de Moraes imposed a series of tough restrictions on former President Jair Bolsonaro, including an order to wear an ankle monitor, a ban on social media use, and a prohibition against contacting foreign governments, moves reportedly driven by fears that Bolsonaro might attempt to flee the country.

These steps came shortly after Brazil’s Supreme Court approved search warrants and police raids on Bolsonaro’s home.

The US Treasury Department has sharply criticized Moraes, accusing him of cracking down on constitutionally protected speech and frequently resorting to pretrial detentions without formal charges.

The sanctions, announced under the Global Magnitsky Act, allow the US to penalize foreign officials linked to human rights violations or corruption.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent condemned Moraes’s conduct as a politically motivated “witch hunt,” alleging it targeted both American and Brazilian supporters of Bolsonaro.

Political firestorm over Bolsonaro trial

The US State Department has also revoked visas for Justice Alexandre de Moraes, several of his fellow justices, and their family members.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the legal campaign against former President Jair Bolsonaro as politically motivated, calling it “censorship” and a clear violation of fundamental freedoms.

These actions have further strained relations between Washington and Brasília.

Bolsonaro, a close ally of former US President Donald Trump, has received Trump’s vocal backing.

Trump slammed the trial in São Paulo as an “international disgrace” and warned of 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports starting August 1 unless Brazil halts what he described as the political prosecution of Bolsonaro.

Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, strongly rejected the US sanctions and visa bans, calling them an unjustified intrusion into Brazil’s judicial independence.

The Bolsonaro case has become a focal point of the growing geopolitical rift.

Moraes, seen by many on the Brazilian left as a defender of democracy, faces accusations from Bolsonaro’s allies and the US right of abusing his judicial power to silence political opponents.

Bolsonaro’s family members, including his son Eduardo, have actively lobbied in Washington to push for sanctions against Moraes and support for Bolsonaro’s legal defense abroad.

The US decision to sanction a sitting justice of Brazil’s highest court marks an extraordinary move that underscores how deeply Brazil’s political and judicial turmoil has spilled onto the global stage.

The post US sanctions Brazilian Supreme Court Judge, escalating global clash over Bolsonaro trial appeared first on Invezz