As the Trump administration appoints Vice President JD Vance to lead a nationwide ‘War on Fraud,’ a coalition of conservative state financial officers says it has already uncovered and stopped billions in taxpayer waste and is pledging to partner with the White House to root out corruption nationwide.

In a Thursday letter to the White House, the State Financial Officers Foundation (SFOF) praised President Donald Trump’s focus on what he called fraud scandals that have ‘resulted in tens of billions of dollars being stolen from American taxpayers,’ writing that such corruption ‘shreds the fabric of a nation’ 

SFOF CEO OJ Oleka told Vance that the group’s 40 conservative state treasurers, auditors and comptrollers across 28 states stand ready to support the administration’s anti-fraud mission, noting they collectively oversee more than $3 trillion in state funds.

The letter accompanied SFOF’s inaugural 2025 Oversight Report, which claims that affiliated state financial officers safeguarded more than $28 billion of waste, fraud, and abuse in 2025 alone.

The report highlights some of the most egregious examples within that $28 billion including in Florida, where Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia just under $2 billion in excessive spending and in Kentucky, where Auditor Allison Ball found more than $836 million in improper Medicaid payments.

Medicaid fraud has been of particular interest to the Trump administration given the massive fraud scandal that has unfolded in Minnesota and Vance said on Wednesday the administration has ‘decided to temporarily halt certain amounts of Medicaid funding that are going to the state of Minnesota in order to ensure that the state of Minnesota takes its obligations seriously to be good stewards of the American people’s tax money.’

The report also highlights North Carolina, where it says State Auditor Dave Boliek discovered more than $1 billion in lapsed salaries from long term vacancies in the state. Additionally, Utah auditor Tina Cannon identified more than $518 million in fraud, waste and abuse across agencies and nonprofits receiving state and federal funds.

In his letter, Oleka told Vance that SFOF’s members are ‘allies already on the battlefield’ and stand ready to assist the administration in protecting taxpayer dollars.

‘The American people deserve nothing less,’ he wrote.

SFOF argues that state-level financial watchdogs, often elected independently of governors and legislatures, are uniquely positioned to expose mismanagement and enforce fiscal discipline.

With billions already identified at the state level, the group says a coordinated federal-state approach could dramatically expand the scope of fraud detection nationwide, potentially reshaping how taxpayer dollars are safeguarded across the country.

‘By working together, we can protect our nation’s treasure to the fullest extent against every foe and every plot to endanger it,’ Oleka wrote.

Former President Bill Clinton will testify to the House Oversight Committee in a high-stakes deposition for the committee’s probe into Jeffrey Epstein on Friday.

The closed-door meeting is expected to take place at 11 a.m. at the Chappaqua Performing Arts Center in Westchester County, N.Y.

Chappaqua has been the Clintons’ primary residence since they left the White House at the end of the former president’s tenure.

Republicans have been eager to question Bill Clinton about his ties to Epstein for months as the committee has gone back and forth with his lawyers about terms of the interview.

Both Democrats and Republicans are expected to grill Clinton, as well as committee staff on both sides.

His sitdown comes a day after his wife, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, appeared before the panel for her own lengthy deposition in the Epstein probe.

However, House Oversight Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., told reporters on Thursday that he anticipated Bill Clinton’s deposition would be ‘even longer’ than his wife’s.

He also stressed Thursday that neither of the Clintons are being accused of wrongdoing tied to Epstein.

‘No one’s accusing, at this moment, the Clintons of any wrongdoing. They’re going to have due process,’ Comer said. ‘But we have a lot of questions, and the purpose of the whole investigation is to try to understand many things about Epstein.’

Both depositions will be released on video sometime later.

Hillary Clinton told lawmakers in her opening statement that she could not recall any contact with Epstein, nor did she have any more information for the committee past what she sent in a Jan. 13 statement.

She also criticized the probe’s attention on her as a ‘fishing expedition’ and accused Republicans of trying to use her to pull attention from Trump.

‘A committee endeavoring to stop human trafficking would seek to understand what specific steps are needed to fix a system that allowed Epstein to get away with his crimes in 2008,’ she told the panel, according to her opening remarks.

‘But that’s not happening. Instead, you have compelled me to testify, fully aware that I have no knowledge that would assist your investigation, in order to distract attention from President Trump’s actions and to cover them up despite legitimate calls for answers.’

Unlike his wife, however, Bill Clinton had a well-documented relationship with Epstein before his federal probes related to prostitution of minors and sex trafficking.

Bill Clinton’s name and photo appear numerous times in documents released by the federal government on Epstein, and flight records show he did ride Epstein’s plane.

But neither he nor Hillary Clinton have been implicated in Epstein’s crimes.

The committee has also interviewed two former Trump administration officials, ex-Attorney General Bill Barr and ex-Labor Secretary Alex Acosta.

Their testimonies come weeks after the House nearly voted on holding both Clintons in contempt of Congress for defying Comer’s subpoena. House leaders dropped the effort after the Clintons said they would comply.

Republican and Independent voters reacted favorably when President Donald Trump brought up how his administration has cracked down on drug cartels and fentanyl, but Democrats appeared less motivated by Trump’s aggressive foreign policy stance. 

‘For years, large swaths of territory in our region, including large parts of Mexico, really large parts of Mexico, have been controlled by murderous drug cartels. That’s why I designated these cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and I declared illicit fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction,’ Trump said to applause as he turned to look at Republicans. 

Per a panel assembled by polling group Maslansky & Partners of 29 Democrats, 30 Independents, and 40 Republicans, which tracked their real-time reactions during Trump’s SOTU address, Democrats appeared to go slightly below baseline when Trump began touting his aggressive stance towards cartels in Central and South America, specifically his administration’s bombing campaign against them which has included attacks in the open ocean off the South American coastline and in the eastern Pacific.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Independents showed a much stronger favorable reaction to the president’s remarks about the actions his administration has taken against drug cartels and illegal fentanyl. 

During his address, Trump also highlighted the U.S.’s help in capturing drug kingpin ‘El Mencho’ earlier this month in Mexico. Ruben ‘Nemesio’ Oseguera Cervantes, known as ‘El Mencho,’ the leader of the CJNG, was killed Sunday in a Mexican military operation in Tapalpa, Mexico, authorities said. Though the operation was carried out by Mexican forces, the United States laid the groundwork, making El Mencho’s fall possible.

On President Donald Trump’s first day in office, he signed an executive order directing the State Department to designate several cartels and international criminal groups ‘foreign terrorist organizations’ (FTOs), a designation unlocking military-grade surveillance and ‘material support’ prosecutions. Though lesser known than MS-13 or Tren de Aragua, CJNG was one of the groups designated an FTO by the administration.

Shortly after Trump’s executive order, Attorney General Pam Bondi sent a policy memorandum to all Department of Justice employees, announcing a ‘fundamental change in mindset and approach’ to cartels and transnational criminal organizations to a policy of ‘total elimination.’

The Trump administration has engaged in an aggressive bombing campaign against cartel boats throughout both 2025 and 2026. The U.S. has also conducted non-lethal maritime drug interdiction efforts as well.

In early 2026, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro was captured by U.S. forces and extradited to New York on drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, with Trump accusing him at the time of being a ‘kingpin of a vast criminal network.’

The recent violence and capture of El Mencho this month has led American tourists to be trapped in Mexico. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the State Department has been taking ‘hundreds of calls a day’ providing Americans with travel support and advice.

‘We are unaware of any reports of any Americans being hurt, kidnapped, or killed, and the Mexican drug cartels know not to lay a finger on a single American or they will pay severe consequences under this president – and they already are,’ Leavitt told Fox News. 

Fox News Digital’s Peter Pinedo contributed to this report.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to be deposed by the House Oversight Committee late Thursday morning, as lawmakers continue to investigate the federal government’s handling of Jeffrey Epstein’s case.

The deposition is expected to begin at 11 a.m. ET in Chappaqua, N.Y., Fox News Digital was told. The Clintons have owned a home in the affluent New York City suburb since 1999 and have primarily lived there since former President Bill Clinton left office.

And while closed-door depositions normally just require a committee staff presence in most cases, a source familiar with planning told Fox News Digital that House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., will be there in person.

At least 10 House Republicans on the committee will also attend, the source said.

Hillary Clinton will be deposed on Thursday, while Bill Clinton’s deposition is scheduled for Friday. Both interviews will be closed to the press, but they will be transcribed and videotaped.

Comer told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that the former first couple’s testimony ‘is critical to understanding Epstein and [Ghislaine Maxwell’s] sex trafficking network and the ways they sought to curry favor and influence to shield themselves from scrutiny.’

‘Their testimony may also inform how Congress can strengthen laws to better combat human trafficking. Our goal for this investigation is straightforward: We seek to deliver transparency and accountability for the American people and survivors,’ Comer said.

The Clintons’ testimony comes after months of back-and-forth with the committee on the circumstances and conditions of the interviews.

They are two of several people and entities whom Comer subpoenaed for information on Epstein back in August.

Their attorneys initially pushed back on the subpoenas, calling them legally invalid and a violation of the separation of powers, but House Republicans responded by pressing forward with resolutions to hold both Clintons in contempt of Congress.

The lawyers finally agreed to Comer’s terms just days before a full House vote was expected to move forward.

But not all members of the committee are satisfied with how the situation is playing out.

‘I don’t know why the heck we didn’t bring them here. If you or I got in trouble, guess what? We’d be here, or we’d be in chains, and they’d be dragging us in. Having them up in Chappaqua to me is an insult to the public,’ Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told reporters on Wednesday. ‘I realize they got to cut a deal, but it’s not a deal I would have cut.’

Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., the top Democrat on the committee, told reporters, ‘We have a good group going up to New York.’

‘I think that anyone that has information about Jeffrey Epstein or spent any time with him, I think it’s important to ask questions. I mean, personally, I think one of the things that we’ve been hearing a lot about lately is whether Jeffrey Epstein had any sort of foreign ties, whether there were any sort of…wealth of foreign governments,’ Garcia said.

But both sides have largely accused the other of politicizing the probe. Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to create a narrative that persecutes figures on the left while attempting to clear President Donald Trump, and Republicans are arguing that Democrats are using the investigation to purposefully target the sitting commander-in-chief.

Neither Clinton has been accused of any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein, nor has Trump.

But both Trump and Clinton have appeared numerous times in the Epstein files released so far and are known to have had relationships with the late pedophile before his federal investigations.

President Donald Trump has drawn his line. Now the clock is running.

After publicly giving Iran roughly 10 days to 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement, Trump used his State of the Union address to make clear the deadline is backed by force. 

‘I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror … to have a nuclear weapon,’ he told lawmakers Tuesday night.

The president first outlined the short timeline Feb. 19, saying the world would know within ‘probably 10 days’ whether Tehran was prepared to strike what he called a meaningful deal. 

‘I would think that would be enough time — 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum,’ Trump said, warning that absent an agreement, ‘it’s going to be unfortunate for them.’

On Tuesday, he reinforced the pressure from the House chamber, telling Congress negotiations are underway, but Iran has not met his core condition. 

‘We are in negotiations with them,’ Trump said. ‘They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.”

He also pointed back to the 2025 U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, describing Operation Midnight Hammer as having ‘obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program.’ 

After that operation, he said, Tehran was warned ‘to make no future attempts to rebuild its weapons program,’ adding that Iran is now ‘starting it all over again.’

The combination of a defined diplomatic window and a public reminder of U.S. military action marks a sharper phase in the standoff, as talks in Geneva unfold under mounting pressure.

Trump has not detailed what specific action would follow if Iran refuses his terms. But he told reporters in mid-February that if a meaningful agreement does not materialize, ‘bad things will happen,’ and acknowledged he is considering further steps.

With the State of the Union complete and the president’s timeline already in motion, the coming days are likely to determine whether the administration secures a nuclear concession — or shifts toward a more confrontational path in the Middle East.

The diplomatic ultimatum is underscored by the largest assembly of U.S. naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. 

The world’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived at Souda Bay, Crete, Monday. The Ford joined the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been conducting 24-hour flight operations in the Arabian Sea since late January.

Between the two strike groups, the U.S. now commands a fleet of 14 major warships, including nine Arleigh Burke-class destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Meanwhile 12 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters touched down at Ovda Airbase in southern Israel. 

As national security analyst Joe Funderburke noted in the Small Wars Journal, ‘The F-22 is not a simple show-of-force aircraft. It is designed to suppress enemy air defenses and protect penetrating strike platforms like the B-2 Spirit bomber, the same combination used to devastate Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz nine months ago.’

The president’s reminder of Operation Midnight Hammer — which utilized B-2 bombers to drop 30,000-pound ‘bunker buster’ munitions — serves as the tactical blueprint for what follows the current deadline. 

While the 2025 operation was a ‘surgical’ surprise strike, the current buildup suggests a far broader mission set, potentially due to Iran’s threat of an aggressive response. 

Iran’s response to Operation Midnight Hammer was measured and the U.S. had warning. This time, Iran has vowed a more forceful response and says any U.S. troops operating in the Middle East could be open targets. 

Amid his sharper diplomatic timeline, Trump also asserted that Iranian authorities had killed some 32,000 protesters in weeks of demonstrations that began in early January — a number far above independent estimates and Tehran’s own death toll. 

‘Just over the last couple of months with the protests, they’ve killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters — 32,000 protesters in their own country,’ the president said. ‘They shot them and hung them.’ 

Administration officials have signaled that any agreement would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and provide verifiable guarantees that its program cannot be reconstituted — terms Iran repeatedly has objected to.

Both Washington and Iran appear to believe the other is bluffing. 

Trump has framed the timeline as a final opportunity for diplomacy backed by overwhelming force. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have publicly dismissed U.S. threats and warned that any strike would trigger retaliation against American forces and regional allies.

Still, U.S. negotiators will meet with Iranian envoys once again in Geneva Thursday.

President Donald Trump used part of his State of the Union address on Tuesday to spotlight American military heroism, awarding U.S. Army Chief Warrant Officer Eric Slover and U.S. Navy Captain E. Royce Williams with the nation’s highest military honor. 

Recounting what he described as a high-risk January raid targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Trump detailed Slover’s role in leading the mission. He said Slover was piloting a Chinook helicopter transporting U.S. forces into heavily fortified enemy territory under the cover of darkness. As the aircraft approached the target, it came under intense machine gun fire from multiple directions.

‘There were many heroes on that January raid to capture Maduro. Really great heroes. It was very dangerous,’ Trump said, describing the perilous mission.

‘He absorbed four agonizing shots, shredding his leg into numerous pieces,’ the president continued, telling lawmakers that ‘the success of the entire mission and the lives of his fellow warriors hinge on Eric’s ability’ to keep flying as blood ‘pour[ed] down the aisle.’

Slover, still recovering from his wounds, attended the address with his wife, Amy, as he was presented with the nation’s highest military award.

Trump also presented the Medal of Honor to Williams, a 100-year-old Korean War veteran and retired Navy captain, for his extraordinary combat valor during a long-classified 1952 aerial dogfight over the Sea of Japan. 

Flying a single F9F Panther jet from the USS Oriskany, Williams engaged and shot down four Soviet MiG-15 fighters during a 35-minute battle despite being heavily outnumbered and flying an aircraft considered inferior in speed and climb rate. 

At the time, the U.S. government kept the encounter secret to avoid escalating tensions with the Soviet Union, which was not officially acknowledged as a combatant in the war. Decades later, after the details were declassified, Williams’ actions were formally recognized with the nation’s highest military honor.

The back-to-back Medal of Honor ceremonies underscored the administration’s emphasis on military service, drawing extended applause from lawmakers and guests in the chamber.

Many conservatives quickly took to social media to praise President Trump’s State of the Union speech, which lasted just under two hours, energizing Republicans and riling Democrats.

‘It’s not just an excellent speech, it’s mostly POTUS himself,’ conservative radio host Mark Levin posted on X. ‘ He’s a truly historic leader. I know it drives DC nuts. Who cares.’

‘Trump is a colossus; an amazingly patriotic speech,’ FOX Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino posted on X. 

‘This is the best State of the Union Address I’ve ever seen,’ conservative commentator Buck Sexton posted on X. ‘Not just by Trump. By any President.’

‘President Trump’s State of the Union put America’s greatness on full display—celebrating our war heroes, everyday heroes, and Olympic champions,’ former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy posted on X. 

‘The President delivered a home run State of the Union tonight,’ GOP Rep. Chip Roy posted on X. 

Democrats on social media struck a different tone, with many prominent faces of the party bashing the president as the speech developed, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom who accused Trump of ‘destroying the country’ and posted ‘that was boring.’

‘That State of the Union speech by Trump was humiliating for both him and the Republican Party,’ liberal influencer Harry Sisson posted on X. ‘He rambled incoherently and Republicans clapped like seals the whole time no matter what was said. I’m glad military heroes were honored, but he lied the entire time.’

Trump’s speech, which was the longest State of the Union in history, focused on what he called a ‘turnaround for the ages’ in the United States during his second term. 

Trump invited a swath of various guests to the speech, including everyday Americans, Turning Point USA co-founder Charlie Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, the U.S. men’s hockey team fresh off their gold medal win, military members who acted heroically in the time of crisis and families who have suffered tragedy at the hands of illegal immigrants.

Trump’s speech came as the GOP prepares to defend its majority in the House and Senate as the November midterms loom, and also as the nation prepares to celebrate its 250 years of independence.

‘This July 4th, we will mark two and a half centuries of liberty and triumph, progress and freedom in the most incredible and exceptional nation ever to exist on the face of the earth. And you’ve seen nothing yet,’ Trump said. ‘We’re going to do better and better and better. This is the golden age of America.’

Fox News Digital’s Emma Colton contributed to this report
 

Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas said Tuesday that she would ‘boycott’ President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech.

She blasted him as a ‘wannabe king’ and described the present state of the union as ‘grim.’

‘Tonight, I will boycott Donald Trump’s State of the Union address,’ she said in the statement. ‘The American people deserve better than a low-down, scamming wannabe king who plans to stand at that podium and spew more lies; and I refuse to legitimize the weaponization of the federal government, blatant lies and corruption, and the destruction of our Constitutional principles and democratic norms.’

Crockett, who is currently running in the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary, said she was not sent to D.C. ‘to coddle Donald Trump’s ego.’

‘Instead of wasting time listening to Donald Trump lie to the American people, I will be back in Texas talking with families about the true state of our union: cuts to SNAP and Medicaid, rogue ICE agents on our streets, the Epstein cover-up, attacks on the First Amendment, and the unlawful tariffs that have made life too expensive for Texans,’ she said in the statement.

She indicated that the president has an ‘authoritarian agenda.’

‘The current state of our union is grim, but it is not permanent. I will spend tonight continuing the fight to actually strengthen the State of the Union,’ she said in the statement.

Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment on Wednesday morning.

The U.S. Secret Service-involved shooting of a man with a shotgun inside the secure perimeter of Mar-a-Lago over the weekend brought the Department of Homeland Security’s partial shutdown into new focus.

Two USSS agents and a Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office deputy confronted and later shot and killed Austin Martin, 21, who authorities said slipped through a vehicular exit gate that had opened for a car before brandishing his weapon.

‘They confronted a white male that was carrying a gas can and a shotgun. He was ordered to drop those two pieces of equipment that he had with him – at which time he put down the gas can, raised the shotgun to a shooting position… the deputy and the two Secret Service agents fired their weapons and neutralized the threat,’ according to Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw.

Those agents are among the many working their dangerous jobs without pay due to the ongoing partial shutdown of DHS, which Republicans say was brought on by Democrats’ demands that ICE, which remains funded through other means, be reformed.

Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla., who represents Daytona Beach just up the coast from Mar-a-Lago, said the incident proves the bravery of the Secret Service no matter the circumstances.

‘The attempted assassination of President Trump at Mar-a-Lago is a stark reminder of growing leftist political violence in our country,’ Fine said in a statement.

‘Grateful to the Secret Service who neutralized the terrorist. Even as Democrats refuse to pay them because of their shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, these men and women continue to stand their post.’

Top White House aide Stephen Miller offered an even more pointed response to the dynamic:

‘Democrats voted to defund Secret Service, Homeland Security Investigations (who partner with Secret Service) and all the intelligence and law enforcement functions that support Secret Service,’ Miller said.

‘Never before in history has federal law enforcement been purposefully defunded.’

House Small Business Committee Chairman Roger Williams of Texas added that Americans should take note of the agents who responded whether paid or not.

‘As we continue to learn more about the armed man at Mar-a-Lago this morning, we must remember that the brave agents who responded are serving our country without pay due to the Democrat-led shutdown,’ Williams, R-Texas, said.

Prior to the incident, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., warned that the Secret Service and other agencies like FEMA would be put in a bad spot if the partial shutdown went forward.

‘Democrats are prioritizing illegal immigrant criminals ahead of the safety of the American people,’ he said in a February 12 floor speech.

At least one Democrat did react to the agent-involved shooting.

Rep. Lois Frankel of Florida, for whom Trump is technically a constituent at his Mar-a-Lago address, said that ‘political violence is never the answer.’

‘Thank you to the Secret Service and Palm Beach County law enforcement for their swift response today and for their continued work in keeping the president safe,’ Frankel said.

The Northeast blizzard presents separate challenges for resource-suspended agencies like FEMA, while certain Homeland Security-run services, such as TSA escorts for members of Congress, are also suspended.

Fox News’ Elise Oggioni contributed to this report.

Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding conflict defined by high casualties and incremental territorial shifts. Russia still controls roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, while Kyiv has recently clawed back limited ground in counteroffensives. Military estimates put Russian losses at about 1.2 million casualties since 2022, with Ukrainian losses between 500,000 and 600,000, underscoring the scale of attrition on both sides.

Diplomacy has intensified alongside the fighting. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last August for high-stakes talks aimed at advancing negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has traveled to Washington multiple times since Trump returned to office, including a contentious Oval Office meeting in Feb. 2025 and a follow-up visit later in the year.

The most recent U.S. engagement with both sides came during trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi earlier this year and more taking place in Geneva on Feb. 17–18, where special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian and Ukrainian delegations as part of ongoing efforts to broker a settlement.

As the war enters its fifth year, former officials and analysts say the next phase could unfold along three possible paths: prolonged stalemate, shifting Ukrainian momentum, or a dangerous erosion of Western resolve.

Scenario one: Prolonged stalemate

The most immediate trajectory is continuation. The war remains defined by attrition, with neither side delivering a decisive blow and negotiations producing little progress.

Ret. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme allied commander of Europe, said Moscow is not winning despite its territorial hold, ‘There isn’t a winner right now.’

‘Russia, supposedly a world superpower with one of the world’s probably top three world armies and top four world air forces, in 12 years has gained about 20% of Ukraine. And they have lost some, say, over 1.2 million in the conflict so far. It’s a conflict that Ukraine is working hard to manage. It’s also a conflict that Russia is not, I repeat, not winning,’ he said.

Scenario two: Ukrainian momentum reshapes diplomacy

Recent battlefield developments suggest another possibility. Breedlove pointed to rapid Ukrainian gains following disruptions in Russia’s command-and-control systems.

‘In the last three or four days, because of the loss of the Starlink command and control system, Ukraine launched an offensive, and they have snatched back months of Russian gains in three days, three-pronged push, hundreds of square miles regained, and Russia is backing up in several places right now.’

Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, said such advances could shift leverage at the negotiating table. ‘Ukraine’s recent advances to recapture its territory is yet another signal that Putin’s war machine is continuing to atrophy as the world marks the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia’s latest territorial losses shows that far from being invincible, Putin and his army are beginning to experience real failures in terms of capability and resources.’

She added that momentum matters. ‘Not only is this the most significant Ukrainian advance on the battlefield in more than two years, its importance may be felt even more concretely at the diplomatic table. Finding a lasting and equitable peace deal through negotiation is often about momentum – and right now the Ukrainians have it.’

If sustained, such gains could alter Moscow’s calculations and give Kyiv a stronger footing in negotiations as long as Ukraine has strong U.S. support, Breedlove argues, ‘The first thing and the most important thing Ukraine needs is a declaratory statement by the West and specifically by the United States that we are not going to allow Russia to win in Ukraine, and we will give Ukraine what it needs to stop Russia… where Putin hears it loud and clear and where the people of Russia hear it loud and clear that is a game changer. And I think that’s when Mr. Putin is going to have to make some tough decisions.’

Scenario three: Escalation or Western fatigue

A third path worries some Western strategists: that inconsistent support could prolong or tilt the conflict in Russia’s favor.

Heather Nauert, who served as spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State from 2017 to 2019, framed the war as more than a territorial dispute. ‘As we now enter the fifth year of Putin’s war in Ukraine, we’re reminded that this conflict has never been only about territory — it’s about identity, faith, and the future of a free nation. Russia has destroyed more than 600 churches, persecuted millions of Ukrainian Christians under occupation, and abducted more than 19,000 children in an effort to break Ukraine’s spirit. President Trump’s push for a lasting peace must be backed by strength and accountability – one that protects innocent lives, defends religious freedom and brings stolen children home.’

Ret. Lt. Gen. Richard Newton said deterrence remains central. ‘Four years into this horrific war, the fundamental lesson remains unchanged: Peace is only possible when strength shapes the terms. Putin will continue to savagely test our resolve until the costs of his aggression outweigh any possible gain.’

‘What Ukraine needs isn’t gestures from the world, but instead, unwavering support from the U.S. and Europe that convinces Moscow further advances carry unacceptable consequences,’ he argued. ‘Russia must not prevail against Ukraine and the West. What are needed are credible security guarantees, robust offensive and defensive capabilities and a unified, long-term commitment by the West to ensure deterrence isn’t an elusive goal, but a lasting reality.’

Breedlove warned that negotiations alone will not shift the balance. ‘The most dangerous scenario is that we do not do what we should do in Ukraine and Russia takes over Ukraine because they’re not done.We have a policy of peace through strength and we’re using it in Iran. We’ve used it in Venezuela. We’re using it with oil tankers around the world… But when it comes to Putin and Ukraine, we are peace through weakness.’

‘Mr. Putin is making a point that he’s in charge in Ukraine, not the West and certainly not America. And so we need to change that dynamic. You got good guys and you got bad guys. And right now the bad guys have told America to take a hike. So now, rather than telling them what to do, we are going to the good guys and saying, you have to give up more because the bad guys are not playing well in the sandbox. That’s peace through weakness, not peace through strength,’ Breedlove concluded.