India has overtaken China to become the leading exporter of smartphones to the United States for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global electronics supply chain as companies recalibrate their manufacturing bases amid trade tensions and rising tariffs.

According to data from research firm Canalys, smartphones assembled in India accounted for 44% of total US imports in the April–June quarter, up sharply from just 13% in the same period last year.

Total volume of smartphones made in India soared 240% from a year earlier, Canalys said.

In comparison, China’s share plummeted to 25% from 61% during the same span.

Vietnam also surpassed China, supplying 30% of US smartphone imports in the quarter.

Apple leads the shift to India amid US-China trade tensions

Sanyam Chaurasia, principal analyst at Canalys, said the sharp rise in shipments from India was largely fuelled by Apple’s rapid pivot toward the country amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

This marks the first instance of India surpassing China in smartphone exports to the US.

Apple has ramped up efforts to produce a larger share of its iPhones in India, with plans to make roughly a quarter of its total iPhone output in the country over the next few years.

This comes as former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a return to office, has again threatened additional tariffs on Apple if it does not shift more production to the US

Although some key Apple devices, including iPhones and MacBooks, have received temporary exemptions from the US’s reciprocal tariff regime, those waivers may not be extended beyond August 1.

Other firms trail behind in India pivot

While Apple is leading the transition, other global smartphone makers such as Samsung Electronics and Motorola are also exploring a shift to Indian assembly lines, albeit at a slower pace and smaller scale.

Renauld Anjoran, CEO of China-based electronics manufacturer Agilian Technology, said a growing number of global manufacturers are relocating their final assembly operations to India, expanding capacity in the South Asian country to better cater to the US market.

His company is currently renovating a facility in India with plans to begin trial runs and eventually scale up to full production.

“The plan for India is moving ahead as fast as we can,” Anjoran said in a CNBC report.

The company expects to begin trial production runs soon before ramping up to full-scale manufacturing.

Demand outlook remains uncertain

Despite the boost in shipments, Apple’s global iPhone deliveries declined by 11% year-on-year in the second quarter to 13.3 million units, according to Canalys.

This marked a reversal from the 25% growth seen in the previous quarter.

Shares of Apple have fallen 14% this year, pressured by concerns over trade headwinds and growing competition in smartphones and AI.

Though Apple has started assembling iPhone 16 Pro models in India, Canalys said the company still relies on China’s mature manufacturing ecosystem for most of its high-end devices.

Meanwhile, the US government’s tariff posture remains a moving target. Although a 26% tariff on Indian imports was imposed in April, it is significantly lower than the duties placed on Chinese goods at the time. Those tariffs have since been paused, but only until August 1.

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European stock markets are poised for a higher open on Tuesday, with major bourses looking to shake off the previous session’s losses.

A wave of strong corporate earnings reports, notably from British bank Barclays and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, is providing a positive catalyst for the market, even as investors continue to seek clarity on the details of the recent US-EU framework trade deal.

Futures data from IG suggests a positive start for European markets, with major bourses like London’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX expected to open around 0.2% higher.

This comes after an initial burst of optimism on Monday over the US-EU trade deal faded by the end of the session, ultimately leaving the pan-European Stoxx 600 index with a 0.23% loss.

Investors will continue to hunt for any new details on the trade outlook today, as uncertainty remains for key sectors including pharmaceuticals and products like spirits, which were not explicitly covered in the initial framework.

Some analysts believe the recent positive trade news has largely run its course for now. “We see the tentative trade deal with the EU as pretty much completing the run of good trade news that has lifted global confidence and equity markets, and weakened the [US dollar],” Standard Chartered macro strategist Steve Englander said in a Monday note.

He added, “The deals are a negative from a global growth perspective but appear to be something that US trading partners can live with.”

Corporate stars shine: AstraZeneca and Barclays beat expectations

Tuesday is a busy day for corporate earnings, with several major companies reporting ahead of the bell, offering a more fundamental focus for investors.

• AstraZeneca: The Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical firm posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, driven by strong demand for its key cancer and biopharmaceutical products.

  AstraZeneca reported revenues of $14.46 billion for the three-month period ending June 30, a figure that came in ahead of the $14.07 billion estimated by analysts in an LSEG poll. Quarterly adjusted core operating profit also beat forecasts, coming in at $4.58 billion versus the $4.48 billion anticipated.

  The FTSE 100 company maintained its full-year forecast for revenues to rise by a high single-digit percentage, despite geopolitical challenges, and reiterated its ambitions to grow its US footprint to deliver $80 billion in revenue by 2030.

  Last week, AstraZeneca had announced plans to invest $50 billion in bolstering its US manufacturing and research capabilities by 2030, becoming the latest pharmaceutical firm to ramp up its stateside spending in the wake of US trade tariffs.

• Barclays: British bank Barclays also delivered a strong performance, beating profit expectations and announcing a new £1 billion ($1.33 billion) share buyback program.

  The bank reported a pre−tax profit of £2.5 billion ($ 3.34 billion) for the second quarter, comfortably surpassing the mean LSEG forecast of £2.23 billion. Group revenues met analyst projections of £7.2 billion. The bank noted that market volatility had helped to boost its investment banking revenues during the quarter.

A host of other earnings reports are also due today from European giants like L’Oréal and Ferrovial, as well as major US companies including Boeing, Starbucks, Visa, and PayPal, which will be closely watched for their global outlook.

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Stellantis shares dropped 4.3% on the Milan exchange on Tuesday after the automotive group reinstated its full-year guidance, only to fall short of investor expectations.

The company forecasted a modest recovery in the second half of 2025, projecting increased net revenue and a low-single-digit adjusted operating income margin despite mounting challenges, including US tariffs and weak performance in the North American market.

Stellantis had previously withdrawn its guidance in April amid uncertainty over US import duties.

The return of the forecast, though aimed at signalling renewed confidence, was met with caution on the markets.

After taking a more than 4% plunge in early trading, the stock was trading lower by 2.2% at 10:21 am.

Tariff headwinds continue to weigh on results

The Franco-Italian automaker reported a net loss of €2.26 billion for the first half of 2025, in line with preliminary figures released last week.

That compares to a €5.65 billion profit during the same period a year earlier.

First-half revenue fell 13% to €74.3 billion, and the adjusted operating income margin dropped to 0.7%.

Stellantis blamed the poor showing largely on tariffs, which shaved roughly $350 million from first-half earnings.

The total tariff impact for 2025 is estimated at €1.5 billion. A new trade deal between the US and EU eased some pressure by capping duties on European imports at 15%.

However, vehicles shipped from Mexico and Canada—key production hubs for Stellantis—still face 25% tariffs, though some exemptions apply under the nations’ free trade agreements.

North American revenues fell to just over €28 billion, trailing European revenue of €29.2 billion, as inventory reductions and slower sales hit its largest market.

New leadership plots recovery with product revamp

New CEO Antonio Filosa, a 25-year veteran of the company who took the helm in May and has already reorganised the senior leadership team, acknowledged that 2025 has been a challenging year so far.

He emphasised that Stellantis’ new leadership was prepared to take “tough decisions” to restore profitability.

“Our new leadership team, while realistic about the challenges, will continue making the tough decisions needed to re-establish profitable growth and significantly improved results,” new CEO Antonio Filosa said in a statement.

Part of the recovery plan involves a product refresh.

Stellantis plans to launch 10 new models in 2025, including a new V8-powered Ram truck and an updated Jeep Compass.

Production of the hybrid Jeep Cherokee and Dodge Charger Sixpack will also resume after being paused since 2023.

Analyst views and future outlook

Despite these efforts, some analysts remain unconvinced.

Jefferies noted that the updated guidance came as no surprise following the earlier profit warning but called it “vague,” lacking the detail investors were hoping for.

“We stick to our view that 1H25 marked the lowest point in operating, but the qualitative indications on 2H appear less optimistic than both our and consensus expectations,” broker Equita said in regards to the free cash flow outlook.

Stellantis is banking on new products and operational restructuring to navigate a challenging landscape marked by slowing demand, rising costs, and trade friction.

The company forecast an improvement in industrial free cash flow in the second half, following a €3 billion cash burn in the first.

Filosa, who has already reshuffled the senior management team, will face analysts in his first earnings call as CEO.

He will be expected to provide more clarity on the recovery trajectory and explain how Stellantis intends to regain its footing in the highly competitive North American market.

The road ahead remains uncertain, but Stellantis is signalling that it is not standing still in the face of adversity.

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Niles Investment Management founder Dan Niles expects the “Magnificent Seven” names to post a strong second quarter– but he’s not entirely convinced that the stocks will push meaningfully to the upside.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Niles quoted examples of Alphabet and Netflix– both of which recorded upbeat results last week, but their respective share price response has been rather muted, raising concerns of lofty valuations and stretched positioning.

While high multiples and priced in optimism are making Niles approach upcoming tech earnings with caution, he still sees opportunity in select names with strong fundamentals, relative insulation from tariffs, and resilient growth narratives.

Here are the top 2 “Magnificent Seven” stocks Niles recommends owning heading into earnings.

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Dan Niles is super bullish on Microsoft stock and views it as a top pick for the ongoing earnings season. On “Squawk on the Street”, he pointed to Azure’s turnaround as a key driver of renewed optimism.

After three consecutive quarters of disappointing cloud growth last year, Microsoft saw Azure reaccelerate in the March quarter, growing 2% faster than in December.

This rebound coincided with the company’s restructuring of its OpenAI partnership through the Stargate deal, which Niles believes will continue to pay dividends.

He also highlights MSFT shares’ rough performance last year as a setup for stronger relative gains now, especially as expectations remain high but not excessive.

With AI integration deepening across its product suite and enterprise demand holding steady, Microsoft appears well-positioned to deliver upside.

Niles did agree that consensus expectations are elevated, but sees enough fundamental momentum to justify owning the stock into earnings.

A 0.65% dividend yield on Microsoft stock offers another great reason to own it for the long term.

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)

Another “Magnificent Seven” stock Niles recommends owning heading into the earnings is Nvidia, due to what he described as a more sustainable growth story driven by inference workloads.

While training large AI models has made the majority of artificial intelligence-related headlines so far, Niles argues that inference, where users get real-time answers, is the real long-term driver of demand.

On CNBC, the Niles Investment Management founder noted that CAPEX spending is surging in this area, providing NVDA shares with a durable revenue stream.

Dan Niles sees China re-entering Nvidia’s models, reversing earlier concerns about geopolitical risk and export restrictions.

Though Nvidia is off-cycle this quarter, he believes the company’s fundamentals remain strong and its positioning within the AI ecosystem is unmatched.

With demand shifting toward practical AI applications and infrastructure buildout, Nvidia stands out as a strategic long-term play – even if near-term expectations are high.

Note that Wall Street currently has a consensus “buy” rating on Nvidia stock.

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Pharmaceutical companies are seeking clarification on tariffs imposed under the new US-EU trade agreement. 

Analysts caution that sector-specific punitive levies could jeopardise the entire deal, according to a CNBC report.

Significant ambiguity surrounds the precise definitions and classifications of pharmaceutical goods within the framework of the trade truce finalised on Sunday. 

This agreement introduces a 15% tariff on a range of goods imported from the European Union into the US. 

Tariff ambiguity fuels concerns

The lack of clarity regarding pharmaceutical products is particularly problematic given the complexity and diversity of the industry, encompassing everything from bulk active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to finished dosage forms, medical devices, and even research and development materials.

Industry experts and trade analysts are now grappling with how these new tariffs will be applied across the vast spectrum of pharmaceutical items. 

Key questions arise concerning the categorisation of combination products (drugs and devices), biologics, and novel therapies. 

This ambiguity could lead to differing interpretations by customs officials in both the EU and the US, potentially causing delays, disputes, and increased compliance costs for pharmaceutical companies operating across the Atlantic. 

The immediate concern is the potential impact on supply chains, pricing, and ultimately, patient access to essential medicines, as companies navigate these newly imposed financial barriers.

Conflicting statements

During a news briefing, US President Donald Trump announced a “straight across” tariff on “automobiles and everything else,” while noting that pharma was “unrelated to this deal.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the agreed levy as “all-inclusive,” suggesting that Europe would not be subject to an upcoming announcement regarding pharmaceutical tariffs.

Von der Leyen said Sunday:

We have 15% for pharmaceuticals. Whatever the decision later on is, of the president of the US, how to deal with pharmaceuticals in general globally, that’s on a different sheet of paper.

Earlier this month, Trump indicated that an announcement regarding tariffs on pharmaceutical imports into the US was imminent and could reach up to 200%. 

This follows the administration’s “Section 232” investigation into the pharmaceutical sector, which assesses the impact of these imports on national security. The findings of this investigation are expected by August.

High stakes for European economy

Analysts indicated to CNBC that even a 15% pharma tariff would significantly impact European pharmaceutical companies and the broader economy of the bloc.

“The questions around pharma tariffs are highly material, given the volume of imports from the EU,” Wolfe Research analysts wrote in a note Monday.

In 2024, the EU’s exports of medicines and pharmaceutical products to the US reached approximately $120 billion, making it the EU’s largest export sector. 

Reuters had reported earlier that analysts project 15% levies could increase annual industry costs by $13 billion to $19 billion.

However, a higher rate could, according to them, jeopardize the painstakingly negotiated agreement.

“Any surprise increases to the 15% ceiling on pharma tariffs would threaten the broader trade truce,” Eurasia Group analysts were quoted in the report.

Rabobank analysts warned that if disputes over sectoral tariffs do not derail the wider agreement, the impact on the European economy could be severe.

Meanwhile, firms are struggling amidst this uncertainty.

“We’ve been asking for exemptions from [tariffs] in the US, in the EU, but also in China. That’s something we have been pleading for,” Philips CEO Roy Jakobs told CNBC.

In the current deal that has been announced, that was not part of it, so we keep having that dialogue.

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UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE: UNH) has reinstated its full-year guidance, but the management’s estimates hardly brought any good news for investors.

UnitedHealth Group is projecting per-share earnings of $16 on up to $448 billion in revenue.

Both figures are well below Wall Street estimates, which had expected earnings of $20.91 per share on $449.16 billion in revenue.

The downbeat guidance has triggered a fresh wave of selling, with UnitedHealth stock extending losses in Tuesday’s premarket session.

Shares are now down more than 55% from their year-to-date high on April 11.

Medical costs remain an overhang on UnitedHealth stock

UnitedHealth chief executive Tim Noel agreed the insurance firm faces challenges but said “we can resolve these issues and recapture our earnings growth potential while ensuring people have access to high-quality affordable health care.”

However, investors should note that his estimate for medical costs – a persistent overhang for UNH shares – still doesn’t signal possible moderation in the second half of 2025.

The healthcare behemoth sees its medical care ratio printing within the range of 89% to 89.5% this year, roughly the same as significantly elevated 89.4% in Q2.

What it suggests is: cost pressures remain entrenched, limiting near-term margin expansion and reinforcing investor concerns about sustained profitability headwinds.

Note that UnitedHealth stock has now plunged to levels not seen even at the peak of the pandemic in early 2020.

UNH shares down despite better-than-expected Q2 revenue

Broader concerns surrounding UnitedHealth shares are making investors ignore the company’s Q2 revenue that topped Street estimates on Tuesday.

UNH generated $111.62 billion in revenue in its second financial quarter – slightly above $111.52 billion that analysts had forecast.

For investors, however, what’s more important is the bottom line. In its recently concluded quarter, the NYSE-listed firm earned $4.08 on a per-share basis, notably below the consensus of $4.48.

That said, UNH stock currently pays a healthy dividend yield of 3.13%, which keeps it somewhat attractive to own, especially at a trimmed valuation at the time of writing.

How to play UnitedHealth after second-quarter earnings?

UnitedHealth remains the largest and, therefore, the most important health insurer in the world, trading at a historically low multiple and pays an attractive dividend as well.

However, its ongoing challenges suggest investors are better off adopting a “wait-and-see” approach – especially since UNH’s Medicare billing practices are currently under investigation.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) probe is concerning for UnitedHealth stock as Medicare business currently makes up nearly one-third of the firm’s overall revenue.  

Therefore, reputational damage, revised reimbursement policies, or financial penalties resulting from the investigation could weigh further on UNH shares moving forward.

That said, Wall Street hasn’t thrown in the towel on UnitedHealth Group Inc yet.

Heading into the earnings print today, analysts had a consensus “overweight” rating on the insurance giant with the mean target of about $355, indicating potential upside of well over 30% from current levels.

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Asia-Pacific stock markets began the trading week with a mixed and cautious performance on Monday, as investors eagerly awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between the United States and China, which are set to kick off in Stockholm later in the day.

This high-stakes diplomatic engagement, coupled with a recent trade agreement between the US and the European Union, is setting a complex and somewhat uncertain tone for the region, with Indian benchmarks like the Sensex poised for a muted start.

The primary focus for investors today is the resumption of trade talks between Washington and Beijing, aimed at resolving long-standing economic disputes.

The talks will be led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. In a positive signal for the negotiations, Bessent told Fox Business that he expects a trade-truce extension to be discussed.

He also indicated that the negotiations will cover a broader range of topics than previous rounds, including sensitive issues such as Beijing’s oil purchases from Russia and Iran.

This meeting follows a significant development on the transatlantic trade front.

US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday US time that he had reached an agreement with the European Union, a move that averted his previous threat of imposing 30% tariffs on the bloc.

This successful negotiation with the EU has raised hopes for a similar outcome with China, though the issues at stake are arguably more complex.

A mixed picture across Asian bourses

The market’s reaction to this diplomatic flurry was varied across the region. As of 8:10 a.m. Singapore time, Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark fell 0.85%, while the broader Topix index moved down 0.44%.

In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.15%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark added 0.2%.

In Greater China, Hong Kong stocks started the day higher, with the Hang Seng Index adding 0.49% as of 10 a.m. local time. However, mainland China’s CSI 300 traded flat as investors awaited more details on the US-China talks.

Samsung surges on massive semiconductor deal

In corporate news, a standout performer was Samsung Electronics. Shares of the South Korean tech giant rose by as much as 3.49% on Monday following its announcement of a massive $16.5 billion contract for supplying semiconductors.

The memory chipmaker did not, however, name the counterparty in its announcement.

Indian markets poised for a tepid start

Indian stock market benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a muted opening on Monday, tracking the mixed cues from other global markets.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicated a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index, with Gift Nifty trading around the 24,832 level, a discount of nearly 18 points from Nifty futures’ previous close.

This follows a session on Friday where the Indian stock market ended with sharp losses, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below the 24,900 level.

The Sensex had crashed 721.08 points, or 0.88%, to close at 81,463.09, while the Nifty 50 settled 225.10 points, or 0.90%, lower at 24,837.00.

US markets: futures Rise on EU deal news

US equity futures rose in early Asian hours after President Trump lowered the threatened tariffs on the European Union to 15% from the previously stated 30%.

As of 8:03 a.m. Singapore time, S&P 500 futures had added 0.39%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.53% higher. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 156 points, or 0.35%.

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Recent activity in the wheat market has led to price fluctuations within a narrow band. 

Prices have hovered around 540 US cents per bushel on the CBOT and EUR 200 per ton on Euronext, reflecting mixed news.

“The supply coming onto the market as a result of the ongoing harvests has been weighing on prices for weeks,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

By the close of last week, the US had completed 73% of its winter wheat harvest, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Moreover, 52% of the spring wheat plants in the fields remained in excellent or good condition.

A crop tour through North Dakota, the most important spring wheat-growing state, revealed above-average yields, according to USDA. 

This year, the USDA anticipates the US wheat harvest to be around 52.5 million tons, with exports projected at 23 million tons, consistent with last year’s figures. 

EU harvests

The EU’s wheat harvest is projected by the USDA to reach 137.3 million tons.

This represents a 15 million ton increase compared to last year’s poor crop, which was a result of adverse weather conditions.

However, the harvest would also be slightly larger than it was two years ago.

Exports are expected to rise by 6 million to 32.5 million tons.

The EU forecasting unit MARS projects an increase in average soft wheat yields to 6.09 tons per hectare, further supporting the expectation of a strong EU wheat harvest.

That would be 9% more than last year and 6% above the five-year average. 

Russia exports

Fritsch said:

However, the USDA’s export estimate for Russia could prove to be too optimistic.

Russian wheat exports are now projected to be 43-44 million tons, a downward revision from the initial 45 million tons by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. This revised forecast follows the current standing of 46 million tons.

The forecast for the Russian wheat harvest has been slightly revised downwards to 88-90 million tons.

However, the USDA’s crop forecast for Russia is already significantly lower at 83.5 million tons.

Market remains tight

Wheat stock developments indicate a continued tightness in the market.

Wheat stocks in key exporting nations are projected to reach approximately 60 million tons by the close of the 2025-26 crop year, based on USDA forecasts.

“This would mean that stocks would remain at the low level of the previous year,” Fritsch added. 

US wheat stocks are projected to represent 40% of the total inventories held by major exporting nations. Three years ago, the US share was still 25%.

While stocks in the US are expected to increase further in this crop year, stocks in other exporting countries are likely to decline again.

Price forecasts

Following recent market developments, Commerzbank has revised their year-end forecast for the US wheat price downwards. 

The new projection stands at 570 US cents per bushel, a decrease from the German bank’s previous estimate of 600 US cents. 

At the time of writing, the price on CBOT was around 537 US cents.

This adjustment reflects a thorough reassessment of current market conditions, including global supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns in key growing regions, and broader macroeconomic factors influencing commodity prices.

Fritsch said:

We also expect the EU wheat price to be slightly lower at EUR 210 per ton (previously EUR 220) due to the better EU harvest.

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European stock markets rallied on Monday, with the regional Stoxx 600 index climbing to a four-month high, as investors cheered the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

The deal, which averts the threat of much steeper tariffs, has ignited a broad-based rally, with the autos sector leading the charge.

A transatlantic truce: deal details and market reaction

The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.8% in early trading, with other major regional bourses also firmly in positive territory. The UK’s FTSE 100 was up 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 was higher by 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX was rising 0.7%.

The positive momentum is a direct reaction to the trade pact announced on Sunday by US President Donald Trump, following a pivotal meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The agreement will see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its exports to the US, including automobiles. This is a significant de-escalation from the 30% tariffs that President Trump had previously threatened to impose.

While the European leader stated that the 15% rate would be all-inclusive, President Trump later added that it did not include pharmaceuticals and metals, suggesting some details are still being clarified.

News of the deal had a more limited impact in currency markets, where the US dollar edged slightly higher on Monday. Bond yields in both the US and Europe slid.

Automakers lead the charge: a ‘great for cars’ deal

European carmakers, which have been particularly vulnerable to the threat of US tariffs, jumped on Monday morning. President Trump, in his announcement, specifically stated that the trade agreement will be “great for cars.”

The Stoxx Europe autos index led the gains in early morning deals, surging more than 1.5%.

Individual auto stocks saw strong performance: French car parts supplier Valeo was last seen up 5%.

Jeep maker Stellantis NV gained 3.1%, while Volkswagen AG was up 2.2%, Mercedes-Benz Group AG rose 1.8%, and Porsche AG jumped 3.5%.

The Stoxx 600 autos sector had been little changed for the year as of Friday, significantly missing out on Europe’s broader market rally, which suggests there is now room for this group to catch up.

The relief was also felt among other trade-sensitive sectors. Luxury goods makers LVMH and Kering SA added 0.90% and 0.34%, respectively.

Drinks makers, including Diageo Plc and Pernod Ricard SA, also gained. Shipping stocks, such as A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG, were also in focus, given the freight industry’s high sensitivity to tariffs.

A turning point for European markets?

This rally marks a potential turning point for European stocks, which have been largely range-bound since May due to the persistent jitters around the outlook for global trade.

A UBS Group AG basket of stocks that are particularly sensitive to tariffs had underperformed this year, indicating that there is significant potential for this group to now catch up to the broader regional benchmark.

The positive sentiment is also being felt across the Atlantic.

US equity futures rose early on Monday as Wall Street prepared for an especially busy week. Investors are looking ahead to earnings reports from several major tech companies, a key Federal Reserve meeting, President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline for other countries, and the release of key inflation data.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 171 points, or 0.38%. S&P 500 futures were higher by 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.55%.

Wall Street is also coming off a winning week, which was fueled by strong corporate earnings and recent trade deals struck by the U.S. with other trading partners, including Japan and Indonesia.

The agreement with the EU now adds to this growing sense of a de-escalation in global trade tensions.

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The United States and the European Union announced on Sunday a broad framework for a new trade agreement aimed at defusing tensions between the two economic giants and preventing what could have become a damaging transatlantic trade war.

The deal imposes a uniform 15% tariff on most goods exported from the EU to the United States, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals.

Though the rate is higher than the 10% cap the European bloc had hoped for, it is significantly lower than the 30% tariffs that President Donald Trump had previously threatened.

Flanked by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Trump said the agreement would usher in a new era of “balanced, tough, and fair trade” between the two long-standing allies.

“We made it,” he said, calling the outcome “the biggest of all the deals.”

EU to purchase $750 bn worth of American energy, increase investment in the US

Central to the agreement are substantial pledges from the European Union on energy and investment.

Von der Leyen confirmed that the bloc would purchase $750 billion worth of American energy over the next three years.

Trump also announced that EU member states had agreed to increase their total investment in the US economy by over $600 billion.

This investment, officials said, would span key industries, including automotive manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and defense.

The EU has also committed to purchasing an unspecified amount of American military equipment.

“It’s a good deal, it’s a huge deal,” von der Leyen said, calling the negotiations “tough” but ultimately fruitful.

Some relief was offered on select goods.

Both sides agreed to reduce tariffs to zero on aircraft, aircraft parts, some agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, generic medicines, and certain chemicals—signaling a degree of cooperation that had been lacking in recent years.

Steel and pharmaceuticals excluded from the deal

Despite these developments, not all sectors emerged unscathed.

One conspicuous exclusion from the deal is the steep 50% tariff the Trump administration had earlier imposed globally on steel and aluminum imports.

While von der Leyen hinted that these may be addressed in follow-up negotiations, no immediate relief was offered.

Pharmaceuticals—Europe’s most significant export category to the United States—also remain outside the current agreement and will still be subject to a 15% tariff.

Von der Leyen acknowledged that the pharmaceutical issue had been “placed on a separate sheet of paper,” indicating that further negotiations are expected.

A senior U.S. official clarified that pharmaceutical and semiconductor exports from Europe would continue to face the 15% tariff rate regardless of potential global tariff policies under review by the Trump administration.

Those measures, which could be announced in the coming weeks, are part of a broader strategy to recalibrate US trade policy across critical supply chains.

Mixed reactions from Europe highlight unease

Reactions across the European continent were mixed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the accord, praising it as a means of avoiding “an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations.”

He noted, however, that deeper tariff reductions would have been preferable.

“We were able to preserve our core interests,” Merz said, while expressing disappointment over the limited scope of concessions.

Business groups were more critical. Wolfgang Niedermark of the Federation of German Industries warned that even the 15% rate would have “immense negative effects” on Germany’s export-driven manufacturing sector.

In France, concerns were more pointed.

“The agreement negotiated by the European Commission with the United States will bring temporary stability to economic actors threatened by the escalation of American tariffs, but it is unbalanced,” said French European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Industry Minister Marc Ferracci echoed the sentiment, adding that more detailed discussions—potentially stretching over weeks or even months—would be needed before a binding legal agreement could be finalized.

A temporary shield against global economic volatility

Though the announced deal appears to stave off immediate retaliation and avoids an all-out tariff war, trade experts cautioned against celebrating too early.

Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group noted that several critical areas remain ambiguous.

“If there aren’t further exemptions to be negotiated to that 15%, I think it’s a far more suboptimal deal than the member states were hoping to achieve,” he said.

The agreement does mirror recent trade pacts with other US partners.

The 15% rate is identical to what was agreed upon with Japan last week and is more favourable than the 19 to 20% tariffs recently slapped on Southeast Asian nations.

However, it remains higher than the 10% rate applied to the UK.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING, offered cautious optimism.

“At face value, today’s agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months,” he said.

“An escalation of the U.S.-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy. This risk seems to have been avoided.”

For now, though, leaders on both sides were keen to signal progress.

“This deal enables trade, it rebalances our relationship,” von der Leyen said. Whether it holds under pressure remains to be seen.

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