Asian markets began the week on a strong footing, buoyed by expectations of easier US monetary policy next year, while precious metals pulled back after a sharp rally.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions resurfaced in East Asia as China announced large-scale military drills around Taiwan.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin staged a notable rebound, climbing back above the $90,000 mark, though uncertainty over the broader macro backdrop continues to cloud its outlook.

Asian markets advance on rate-cut expectations

Asian equities pushed higher on Monday, with MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index rising 0.40% to its highest level since early October.

The index has gained more than 25% this year, driven largely by technology stocks as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remained strong into year-end.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.87% to a near two-month high, taking its annual gains to about 75%, its strongest performance since 1999.

Taiwan’s benchmark index rose 0.8% to a record high, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.3%.

Markets were supported by expectations that the US Federal Reserve would continue cutting interest rates next year.

The dollar hovered near its lowest level in almost three months, with the dollar index down slightly on the day and on track for a near 10% decline for the year, its steepest drop since 2017.

Investor attention during the holiday-shortened week is expected to focus on the minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting, due Tuesday.

The central bank cut rates earlier this month and projected just one more cut next year, even as traders continue to price in at least two.

Precious metals pull back after parabolic rally

Precious metals retreated on Monday after a powerful rally earlier in the session and over the year.

Silver briefly surged above $80 per ounce for the first time before sliding sharply in volatile trading.

Spot silver later fell 1.3% to $78.12 per ounce, after touching an all-time high of $83.62.

Gold eased as well, slipping about 0.4% to $4,512.74 per ounce after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on Friday.

Platinum and palladium also pulled back after reaching all-time highs, with palladium dropping as much as 8%.

Analysts said profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on prices.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said in a Reuters report that precious metals have been lifted this year by rate-cut expectations, supply concerns, and hedging against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty, but warned that the late-year surge has increased volatility risks.

Despite the pullback, the broader outlook remains supportive.

Silver has surged 181% year-to-date, while gold is up around 72% in 2025, aided by expectations of lower rates, central bank demand, and diversification away from the dollar.

China announces large-scale drills around Taiwan

Geopolitical risks returned to focus after China announced it would conduct live-fire military drills around Taiwan on December 30.

The exercises, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” will involve the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command and include army, navy, and air force units.

Beijing said the drills are intended to test its ability to carry out precision strikes against key targets.

Taiwan responded by calling on China to halt what it described as irresponsible provocations, while placing its own forces on high alert.

Bitcoin rebounds above $90,000

Bitcoin showed renewed strength on Monday, surging past $90,000 after weeks of pressure.

The cryptocurrency found support above $85,500 and climbed above $88,000 before reaching an intraday high of $90,143, according to TradingView data.

The move brought Bitcoin close to the Fibonacci retracement level near $90,883.

The price is now trading above $90,038 and its 100-hourly simple moving average, a short-term positive signal.

Upside targets are seen around $90,200 and $90,500, with further resistance near $91,500 and $92,000.

However, downside risks remain. Immediate support lies at $88,000, followed by $87,250 and $86,500.

Bitcoin continues to trade below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term indicator, and faces year-end pressure.

Unless it rises more than 3.5% above its yearly open of about $93,374, Bitcoin is set to close the year in the red.

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The Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust (EWIT) has generated a near 950% return on its long-held investment in Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX, underscoring one of the most successful private-market bets in its portfolio.

The investment has also become a focal point in a growing dispute with the trust’s largest shareholder, activist hedge fund Saba Capital.

A speculative bet that paid off

EWIT, a closed-end investment trust managed by Baillie Gifford, first invested in SpaceX in 2018.

At the time, the position was considered an early-stage and speculative bet, according to Jonathan Simpson-Dent, chair of the trust.

Much of the conviction came from EWIT’s portfolio management team, backed by what Simpson-Dent described as a “massively supportive” board.

The trust’s familiarity with Musk’s track record, particularly through its early investment in Tesla, played a key role in shaping confidence in SpaceX’s long-term potential.

Simpson-Dent said Tesla had generated “disproportionate returns” for EWIT shareholders over the past decade, helping reinforce the belief that SpaceX could follow a similarly transformational path.

As SpaceX expanded its launch capabilities and the Starlink satellite network gained traction across multiple end markets, EWIT continued to strengthen its position over several years.

In a recent update, the trust said its SpaceX holding has generated an absolute return of 947%, making it EWIT’s largest investment.

Portfolio discipline and trimming the position

SpaceX now accounts for around 16% of EWIT’s overall portfolio, which totals approximately £847.15 million ($1.14 billion) in assets.

The position is more than double the size of the trust’s next-largest holding.

Recently, EWIT trimmed its exposure to SpaceX, selling roughly one-third of its stake, while keeping it as the trust’s biggest investment.

Simpson-Dent said the decision was driven by portfolio discipline rather than a loss of conviction.

EWIT’s investment guidelines allow around 25% of the portfolio to be held in unlisted assets, a threshold that can naturally rise as valuations increase.

However, Simpson-Dent noted that when the unlisted portion grows closer to 30%, it reduces the flexibility to invest in other private companies.

Trimming the SpaceX stake was intended to manage concentration risk and preserve “dry powder” for future opportunities, while maintaining significant exposure to the business.

Activist pressure and boardroom tensions

The sale has intensified a long-running dispute between EWIT and Saba Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that holds roughly 30% of the trust.

Saba founder Boaz Weinstein publicly criticized the decision, questioning the price at which EWIT sold part of what he described as its “crown jewel,” amid speculation over SpaceX’s potential valuation.

Simpson-Dent explained that SpaceX periodically conducts employee tender offers, providing opportunities for shareholders like EWIT to reduce positions while remaining invested.

Despite this, Saba has accused EWIT of value destruction and has called for significant governance changes.

Saba has secured a general meeting scheduled for January 26, where it plans to propose removing EWIT’s current board and replacing it with three nominees of its own.

EWIT has urged shareholders to vote against the proposal, arguing that its approach balances long-term conviction with prudent risk management.

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“It is ludicrous to believe that asset bubbles can only be recognised in hindsight.”

– Michael Burry (The Big Short)

The rally in precious metals has been nothing short of extraordinary in 2025, begging the question about its sustainability.

Gold and silver have not just climbed this year — they have detonated through record after record, turning what began as a steady ascent into a full-blown surge. The yellow metal is up more than 70% in 2025, while silver has stunned markets with gains of nearly 150%.

This week underscored just how heated the move has become. On Wednesday, gold futures on COMEX smashed through the $4,550 per ounce level, while silver vaulted past $72 an ounce for the first time.

With momentum still firmly on the bulls’ side, the inevitable question is no longer why prices are rising, but how much further can bullion go before gravity reasserts itself?

“I think we go higher, but I don’t think there’s too much upside for gold. I think there’s more potential upside in silver, although it’s difficult to put numbers on either,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Invezz.

Still, as the year draws to a close, the risk of a sharp pullback in both metals is growing increasingly hard to ignore.

Gold likely to remain supported

Experts expect gold prices to remain well-supported as markets head into 2026. 

“We believe that gold’s main drivers, including central bank buying, Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, concerns about the Fed’s independence, and ETF buying, are all still in place, while the global macro environment remains broadly supportive for gold,” Ewa Manthey, commodity strategist at ING Group, said. 

The market anticipates that US President Donald Trump’s recently announced pick for the next Fed chair will advocate for reduced interest rates.

Manthey said:

All of these factors will benefit gold. We see gold prices hitting more record highs in 2026.

Gold is set to achieve its most significant yearly increase since 1979, with a gain exceeding 60%. 

The 1979 surge saw gold prices more than double in a single year, hitting a record peak in early 1980 that held until 2008. 

This historical rally was driven by a confluence of factors, including geopolitical turmoil from the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, alongside double-digit inflation rates in the US.

Case for a higher price in 2026

Some experts believe that it will be difficult to replicate gold’s massive rally year after year, especially after the yellow metal surged 30% in the previous year, meaning it has doubled since February 2024. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised if gold broke back down below $4,000,” Morrison said. 

The reason being that the bulls have just got too comfortable, and far too many are talking about gold going well beyond $5,000 (which I would question).

However, according to Commerzbank AG’s commodity analyst, Carsten Fritsch, there are a number of reasons to expect higher gold prices next year. 

“The most notable of these is the significant easing of monetary policy by the Fed that we expect to happen,” he said. 

Trump is likely to achieve a majority on the Fed Board committed to significantly looser monetary policy next year. A key move is the appointment of a new Fed chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. 

Trump’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, a close ally, is the favourite to succeed Powell and is expected to support the president’s desire for lower interest rates.

“We therefore expect the Fed to cut interest rates more sharply than markets anticipate over the course of the coming year,” Fritsch said. 

Central bank gold purchases remain a significant factor, driven by a continued desire to diversify currency reserves. 

While these purchases are unlikely to match the peak volumes of the last three years in the current year, they are still anticipated to be notably higher than levels seen before 2022.

Even though high gold prices have been impeding physical demand, it is likely to be offset by continued robust investment demand. 

Fritsch said:

We therefore expect the price of gold to rise to USD 4,400 per troy ounce over the course of the coming year.

Silver prices to remain volatile

A record high for silver was reached in mid-October when its price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time. This was again broken in late November when prices moved to $59.

On December 23, silver prices smashed past the $70-per-ounce barrier, making it the most attractive precious metal of 2025. 

Silver’s price has more than doubled since the start of the year, putting it on track for its most substantial annual rise since 1979.

The gold/silver ratio has significantly come down and is below the five-year average. 

“It is therefore up to everyone to decide for themselves whether silver is still affordable compared to gold,” Fritsch said. 

One thing is certain, however: the significant undervaluation that silver still exhibited in April and May of the year now coming to an end has disappeared. 

Silver is often referred to as “gold on steroids” because its percentage movements typically exceed those of gold.

Silver’s smaller market size and dual industrial and investment demand make it highly susceptible to economic cycles. 

Consequently, while silver can significantly surpass gold’s performance in a bull market, it is also prone to steeper declines during an economic downturn.

ING’s Manthey said:

We think silver’s volatility will continue next year.

The primary threat to this outlook is centred on the industrial sector. A more significant-than-anticipated global downturn, especially in areas like electronics or manufacturing, could diminish silver’s upward trajectory. 

Furthermore, a sustained period of high prices might also result in a decrease in demand, according to Manthey.

“While we don’t believe that the pace of gains seen this year is sustainable, overall, we expect silver prices to remain well-supported amid the combination of resilient industrial demand, constrained supply growth, and a more favourable macro environment,” Manthey added. 

Both Commerzbank and ING expect silver prices to average around $59 per ounce next year. 

Silver to move in line with gold

“Since silver is no longer significantly undervalued relative to gold, its individual surge is likely to end soon and the price of silver will once again move more in line with the price of gold,” Fritsch said. 

The silver market’s current tight supply situation—which many indicators suggest will continue to be undersupplied next year—will likely remain a factor supporting price increases.

The sharp rise in prices may lead to attempts to reduce costs by decreasing the amount of silver used in industrial applications (known as ‘thrifting’).

The continued viability of reducing silver content in solar cells without compromising their function is questionable, especially since the amount of silver has already been significantly lowered following the price increase to $50 in 2011, according to Commerzbank. 

However, there may still be some leeway for other applications. Industrial demand for silver, which accounts for around 60% of total silver demand, could be curbed as a result.

Physical investment demand (bars and coins), which hit a seven-year low in 2025, is expected to recover. However, silver ETF inflows are unlikely to match this year’s levels, suggesting these two effects may roughly offset each other.

According to Trade Nation’s Morrison, investors ought to be cautious about the rally in silver prices. 

“The thing is that it may have a lot higher to go, but it needs to correct lower first. The issue for investors is that if silver does correct downwards, the move could be so sudden and violent that everyone will be terrified of buying the dip,” Morrison told Invezz. 

If so, that would create the perfect environment for a blow-off rally to new all-time highs.

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South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang has announced a compensation package worth 1.69 trillion won ($1.17 billion) for millions of users affected by a major data breach disclosed last month.

The move marks one of the largest customer compensation efforts following a cybersecurity incident in South Korea and comes amid regulatory scrutiny and leadership upheaval at the company.

Compensation plan for affected users

Coupang said on Monday that it will provide purchase vouchers worth up to 50,000 won to customers whose personal information was compromised in the breach.

The vouchers will be applicable across several Coupang services, including its core retail platform, food delivery, travel offerings, and luxury beauty platform R.LUX.

According to the company, the compensation will cover approximately 33.7 million to 34 million users, including former customers who closed their accounts after the breach was made public.

Eligible users will be able to check their status starting Jan. 15.

The company described the compensation as a measure to address customer concerns following what has been described as South Korea’s largest-ever data breach.

Interim CEO Harold Rogers said the move reflected Coupang’s responsibility toward its users.

“I once again deeply apologize to our customers,” Rogers said, adding that the company would “fulfill its responsibilities to the end.”

Apologies and leadership fallout

The announcement follows a series of public apologies from Coupang’s leadership.

Founder and chairman Bom Kim issued an apology a day earlier, saying he was “devastated” by the disappointment experienced by customers.

Kim acknowledged that the company failed to communicate clearly in the early stages of the incident and said his public apology had come too late.

Kim explained that he initially believed it was best to speak publicly only after all facts surrounding the breach were confirmed.

“In retrospect, this was a poor judgment,” he said, adding that the situation had weighed heavily on him since learning of the breach.

The data breach, which was revealed on Nov. 18, has already led to significant leadership changes.

CEO Park Dae-jun resigned earlier this month following the disclosure.

Both Kim and Park also failed to appear at a parliamentary hearing related to the breach, drawing criticism as the incident disrupted the lives of millions across the country.

Investigation findings and regulatory scrutiny

Coupang has said it is cooperating with authorities and that it has recovered all leaked customer information through collaboration with the government.

The company stated that it identified a former employee who allegedly accessed personal data from around 33 million accounts.

According to Coupang, data from approximately 3,000 accounts was found stored on the suspect’s computer.

Kim said the company’s investigation indicated that the information was not distributed or sold externally.

Storage devices belonging to the suspect have also been recovered, the company added.

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SoftBank Group Corp. is in advanced discussions to acquire DigitalBridge Group Inc., a New York-listed private equity firm focused on data centres and related assets, reported Bloomberg.

The report said an agreement could be announced as soon as Monday, although no final terms have been reached, and the timing could still change.

If completed, the transaction would underline SoftBank’s growing emphasis on infrastructure that supports artificial intelligence workloads rather than consumer-facing technology bets.

On December 5, DigitalBridge’s stock surged 45% when Bloomberg reported the development for the first time.

Before that, DigitalBridge’s shares were trading down 13% for the year.

DigitalBridge now carries a market value of about $2.5 billion and an enterprise value of roughly $3.8 billion when debt is included, based on Bloomberg data.

Why DigitalBridge matters

DigitalBridge has built its business around owning and operating the physical backbone of the digital economy.

Led by chief executive Marc Ganzi, the firm reported about $108 billion in assets under management at the end of September.

Its portfolio spans data centre platforms and digital infrastructure operators, including AIMS, AtlasEdge, DataBank, Switch, Vantage Data Centers, and Yondr Group.

For SoftBank, acquiring DigitalBridge would offer immediate scale and operational exposure to data centre assets at a time when demand for computing capacity is accelerating.

Artificial intelligence models require vast amounts of power, specialised hardware, and resilient facilities, making data centres a strategic choke point.

SoftBank’s infrastructure pivot

The potential acquisition fits into a broader repositioning under billionaire founder Masayoshi Son.

Son has been vocal about concentrating capital on AI-related infrastructure, shifting focus away from earlier consumer internet investments.

In January, SoftBank unveiled Stargate, a $500 billion data centre initiative alongside OpenAI, Oracle Corp., and Abu Dhabi-backed MGX.

The project targets large-scale facilities across the US, but progress has been slower than initially promised.

Disagreements over site locations and funding structures have delayed deployment, despite Son pledging to deploy $100 billion immediately.

Funding pressures and past lessons

SoftBank’s infrastructure ambitions have also tested its balance sheet flexibility.

The group initially explored project financing from insurers, pension funds, and investment managers, but some discussions slowed amid market volatility, uncertainty around US trade policy, and questions over AI hardware valuations.

The company has navigated similar territory before.

In 2017, SoftBank acquired Fortress Investment Group for more than $3 billion, only to sell its stake in 2024 to a consortium including Mubadala Investment Co.

That episode highlighted both the opportunities and risks of operating in asset management.

More recently, Son disclosed he sold a $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia Corp. to free up capital for AI spending, underscoring the financial trade-offs behind SoftBank’s strategy.

Against this backdrop, DigitalBridge represents not just another acquisition target, but a potential shortcut to owning the infrastructure layer of the AI economy.

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The Russell 2000 Index and the IWM ETFs jumped by 13% this year as global stocks continued their uptrend. It has now risen by over 25% in the last five years, underperforming other blue-chip indices like the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100. This article explores some of the top gainers in the Russell Index this year.

The Oncology Institute was the top gainer in the Russell 2000 Index

The Oncology Institute, a company serving nearly 2 million cancer patients, was the best-performing company in the Russell 2000 Index this year as it jumped by over 1,090%. It rose to a high of $4.85, up by over 2,100% from the year-to-date low.

The company benefited from the rising revenue growth. It estimates that its annual revenue will jump to $500 million this year from $393 million last year. Most of this revenue came from the specialty pharmacy business, followed by fee for services and capitation. 

The Oncology Institute will likely continue doing well as cancer cases in the United States continue growing over time.

The other top gainers in the Russell 2000 Index were companies in the biotechnology industry like Palvella Therapeutics, Cidara Therapeutics, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Nutex Health, and Zenas BioPharma. All these stocks jumped by over 370% this year as they made progress in their research.

Planet Labs (PL)

Planet Labs was the second-best-performing company in the Russell 2000 Index and the IWM ETF which is not in the biotechnology industry. Its stock jumped to a high of $20.90 this year, up by 1,098% from the all-time low.

The company, which is in the satellite imagery industry, surged after the management announced strong earnings and guidance. Its most recent numbers showed that its fourth-quarter revenue will be between $76 million and $80 million, higher than the previous guidance of $73.5 million. 

The company also expects that its annual revenue will be between $297 million and $301 million, higher than what analysts were expecting. This growth happened as the company pivoted to government contracts, with its commercial business remaining under pressure.

EcoStar Corporation stock jumps ahead of SpaceX IPO

The other notable gainer was EchoStar, whose stock jumped by 356% this year. This growth happened as the company continued its partnership with SpaceX. Just recently, the company reached a $2.6 billion deal with SpaceX. Under that deal, the firm will receive $2.6 billion in fees for more spectrum from SpaceX.

The company has reached spectrum deals worth over $40 billion with companies like AT&T and SpaceX. Also, analysts expect its deals will accelerate after SpaceX goes public.

ThredUp (UP)

ThredUp, a company offering a platform to second-hand clothes, is another top gainer in the Russell 2000 Index as it jumped by 332% this year. Its growth accelerated as the company continued seeing more demand amid the ongoing inflationary environment.

The stock also jumped as investors saw it as a good turnaround story and the fact that it has established itself as a good asset-light resale infrastructure play. However, its surge has also attracted short-sellers, with its short interest rising to 15%, a sign that some investors anticipate it to retreat soon.

The other top gainers in the Russell 2000 Index were companies like Hecla Mining, Bloom Energy, ViaSat, Better Home & Finance, US Gold, Oklo, and SSR Mining.

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Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is poised to cut the February price for its benchmark Arab Light crude for Asian customers for the third consecutive month, reflecting a broader trend of declining spot market prices driven by abundant supplies.

The official selling price (OSP) for Saudi Arabia’s flagship Arab Light crude is anticipated to decrease for February loadings. 

A Reuters survey of six Asia-based refining sources suggests a potential fall of 10 to 30 cents per barrel. 

The adjustment is expected to set the premium at 30 cents to 50 cents above the average of the Oman/Dubai benchmark quotes.

This change reflects market dynamics and refining demand in the Asian region.

This decline would represent the third consecutive monthly drop, deepening losses from the January premium of 60 cents a barrel, which was already the lowest in five years.

The OSP for Arab Extra Light crude oil is anticipated to decrease in February, according to the latest market survey.

This decline is projected to be in the range of 10 to 20 cents per barrel.

Market dynamics for heavier grades

In contrast, the outlook for the heavier grades, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, suggests greater stability. 

The survey indicated that the OSPs for both Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude may either remain unchanged from the previous month or experience only a marginal downward adjustment, potentially dipping by a maximum of 10 cents per barrel. 

This differential movement in OSPs across the crude grades reflects varying supply-demand dynamics and perceived quality premiums in the Asian crude oil market for the upcoming month.

Cash Dubai’s premium over swaps in the spot market experienced a rise last week, recovering from a decline since October, attributed to ample supplies. 

This month, the premium has averaged 61 cents per barrel, marking a decrease from November’s average of 88 cents. 

Furthermore, this average is now half of the premium recorded in October, highlighting the recent volatility and downward trend from its peak.

Global supply pressures and OPEC+ actions

The downward pressure on oil prices was a direct result of increased global crude supply. 

This surge in production stemmed from two primary sources.

Firstly, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, deliberately ramped up their output. 

This strategy often aims to balance the market or respond to perceived demand growth. 

Secondly, significant production increases occurred outside of the OPEC+ alliance, most notably within the US.

This combined growth from both major producing groups flooded the market, pushing prices lower due to the excess supply relative to global demand.

OPEC+ has temporarily halted increases in oil production for the first quarter of 2026.

This decision follows the release of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day into the market by eight member countries since April 2025.

According to the International Energy Agency’s most recent monthly oil market report, the worldwide oil supply is projected to surpass demand by 3.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026.

Meanwhile, disruptions to Venezuelan oil exports have had a minimal impact on the Middle East market, as the Latin American producer accounts for only about 1% of global supply.

Most of its crude is shipped to smaller, independent refiners in China.

Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, determines its crude prices after considering customer recommendations and assessing the monthly change in the value of its oil, which is calculated based on product prices and yields.

These Saudi crude OSPs, typically released around the fifth of each month, influence the pricing trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti, and Iraqi crudes. 

This collective pricing affects approximately 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude destined for Asia.

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The Dow Jones Index continued its recent rally, rising by 15% this year and hitting its all-time high of $48,862. It has jumped by ~35% from its highest level in April this year. This article explores the top US30 Index news to watch in 2026.

Dow Jones Index to react to key earnings 

The Dow Jones Index will react to corporate earnings from its constituent companies in the index. Analysts are highly optimistic that American companies will continue doing well as they did this year amid the tariff uncertainty.

Data compiled by FactSet shows that the S&P 500 Index companies experienced double-digit earnings growth in all quarters of the year.

Most of the earnings growth was driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that continued for the third year. A good example of this is Nvidia, the biggest company in the world, whose revenue jumped to over $57 billion in the third quarter.

Other companies in the Dow Jones, like Walmart, Goldman Sachs, and Boeing continued to publish strong financial results during the year. 

The strong earnings explain the surge in the index’s top gainers like Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Nvidia, IBM, and JPMorgan. For example, the most recent results showed that Goldman Sachs earnings jumped, helped by the trading boom and the return of investment banking.

Therefore, the Dow Jones Index will react to earnings as they will provide more color on growth, and most importantly, the AI boom.

Federal Reserve news

The other important news that will impact the Dow Jones and other US indices are the Federal Reserve. One of the Fed news items will be the appointment of the next chairman by Donald Trump and the vetting process.

Trump has interviewed several potential officials, including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. Market participants now expect that Hassett will be nominated to replace Jerome Powell.

The potential nominee will have a major impact on the Dow Jones and other indices as Trump has vowed to appoint an official who will cut interest rates.

Still, the bank’s decisions will be determined by the whole FOMC committee, and there are chances that the members will push back against the chairman.

The other Fed news that will impact the Dow Jones Index are the monetary policy decisions, which will happen in January, March, April, June, July, September, November, and December. 

Most analysts believe that the bank will deliver at least three interest rate cuts in 2026, a move that may boost American stocks.

The other major Fed news will be the firing of Lisa Cook, who Trump accused of conducting mortgage fraud. A court will deliver the verdict on whether the firing was justified. If it is upheld, it means that Trump may fire more Fed officials who are not ready to cut rates.

Additionally, the index will react to the upcoming macro data, like inflation and the labor market, which will help to determine the next Fed action.

AI boom to continue?

The other important Dow Jones Index news will be on the AI boom, which has propelled American stocks to record highs this year.

Therefore, there are concerns about whether the boom will continue and whether it will burst during the year. Fears that the latter will happen explains why top stocks like Nvidia and Oracle have slumped in the past few weeks.

The upcoming earnings will help to determine whether the boom in the AI industry is accelerating. For example, a significant slowdown in earnings and forward guidance of top companies like Nvidia and Microsoft will help to determine this.

Other catalysts for the Dow Jones Index 

There will be other major catalysts for the Dow Jones Index this year, including geopolitics like the relationship between the US and China, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. China will deliver its decision on rare earth materials exports later during the year.

The index will also react to the US midterm election in which Democrats are expected to win by a landslide. 

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The global wheat market is breathing a sigh of relief as supply forecasts have been significantly upgraded, though a recent price rally, fueled by speculation, has kept traders on edge. 

A recent report from Commerzbank AG highlighted the contrasting factors currently influencing the commodity.

The German bank expects wheat prices to rise again by the end of 2026 on tight supply.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) delivered a major surprise in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, sharply revising its global wheat production forecast for the 2025/26 crop year.

USDA revises forecast

“The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for the global wheat production in the current 2025/26 crop year upward by almost 13 million to nearly 829 million tons,” noted the Commerzbank report. 

This was primarily attributed to stronger-than-expected harvests across nearly all major exporting nations.

As the increase in demand was substantially smaller than the production hike, the market has shifted into a comfortable surplus territory, now sitting at 10 million tons.

This abundance means global wheat stocks are projected to rise to 271.4 million tons by the end of the crop year, a healthy increase of 7 million tons over previous expectations.

The stock held by the main exporting countries is set to jump by almost 10% above the prior forecast, reaching 72.4 million tons.

“The supply situation is therefore much more relaxed than two months ago when the last WASDE report was published,” stated Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. 

He added that the significant upward revision, having been foreshadowed by the International Grains Council in October, was “no great surprise.”

This pre-emption may explain why wheat prices remained stable instead of reacting negatively to the news of a surplus.

Speculative rally lifts prices to multi-month highs

Despite the clear indicators of ample supply, wheat prices experienced a notable surge this week, hitting multi-month highs on key exchanges.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the most actively traded futures contract climbed past 560 US cents per bushel, marking its highest level since early July. 

The European benchmark, Euronext in Paris, followed suit, reaching a three-month high of EUR 196.5 per ton.

The trigger for the CBOT price spike appears to be outside the wheat market itself.

The rally was initiated by reports of major purchases of US soybeans by China.

“The price increase on the CBOT was triggered by reports of purchases of US soybeans by China, which apparently also fueled expectations of Chinese purchases of US wheat,” Fritsch said. 

However, hard evidence of Chinese interest in US wheat remains absent. The USDA, sensing no immediate export boom, left its estimate for US wheat exports unchanged.

Carsten Fritsch warned about the potential for a reversal. 

If China does not buy US wheat, the price is likely to suffer a setback given the abundant supply. 

This short-term vulnerability is compounded by the International Grains Council’s recent decision to revise its global wheat crop forecast for 2025/26 upwards by a further 3 million tons, though this specific update did not impact end-of-year stock projections.

Commerzbank forecasts mixed price outlook

Looking ahead, Commerzbank anticipates a near-term correction for US wheat but sees a stronger recovery by the end of 2026, while the European market remains constrained.

“The wheat price on CBOT is therefore likely to decline again in the short term and trade at 540 US cents per bushel at the end of the first quarter of 2026,” the German bank forecasts.

However, a rebound to 580 US cents is expected by the end of next year. This longer-term optimism is predicated on potential supply constraints down the line, given that prices on both CBOT and Euronext had slumped to five-year lows in October.

“The low price level – wheat prices on CBOT and Euronext fell to five-year lows in October – may have led to a reduction in the area sown with winter wheat,” explained Fritsch, suggesting future harvests could be smaller.

The outlook for Euronext wheat is more subdued. It has not tracked the CBOT price as sharply because EU wheat is not expected to benefit from Chinese buying and faces fierce competition from the Black Sea region.

For the European market, Commerzbank sees only limited potential for immediate correction. 

We expect the price to trade at current levels for the time being, followed by an increase to EUR 220 per ton by the end of 2026.

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Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon says Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) recent deal with the California-based artificial intelligence (AI) startup, Groq, removes the last remaining bear case from its stock.

Founded by Jonathan Ross – the architect behind Google’s first tensor processing unit (TPU) – the startup specialises in high-bandwidth, low-latency architectures.

The announcement arrives at a time when Nvidia shares have surged to record levels, driven mostly by relentless global demand for AI chips.

What is the last remaining bear case for Nvidia stock

In a recent CNBC interview, Stacy Rasgon said Nvidia’s spending some $20 billion to acquire Groq’s assets and talents eliminates the only argument sceptics had left: NVDA isn’t a winner in inference.

For years, critics have argued that Nvidia’s chips are optimised for training but less competitive in inference. 

According to him, Groq’s innovations give the multinational a direct path to integrate cutting-edge inference architectures into its future products.   

By absorbing Groq’s tech and personnel, Nvidia can demonstrate leadership across both domains. This makes the bear case “a lot harder to argue,” Rasgon concluded.

Groq is a low-risk deal for NVDA shares

While Groq marks the biggest deal Nvidia has announced since its inception, Rasgon believes it’s still small relative to the giant’s multi-trillion-dollar market cap.

In fact, the Bernstein analyst dubbed it a “bolt-on” acquisition, meaning it offers significant upside at a low financial risk.

On CNBC, he argued Nvidia’s scale positions it to absorb such transactions without disrupting its balance sheet or investor expectations.

“They can do a $20 billion deal on Christmas Eve with no press release, and nobody would bat an eye.”

For shareholders, the takeaway is clear: Groq deal strengthens NVDA’s overall positioning within the AI ecosystem – with minimal downside risk.

Nvidia is widening the gap with rivals

By bringing Groq’s expertise in inference into its ecosystem, Nvidia is not just neutralising a bear case – it is extending its lead over competitors.

Rivals like AMD and Intel have struggled to match Nvidia’s dominance in training workloads, and now face an even steeper challenge in inference.

Groq’s architectures promise faster, more efficient processing for real‑time AI applications, from autonomous vehicles to generative AI services.

Integrating these capabilities into Nvidia’s roadmap widens the performance gap, making it even more difficult for competitors to catch up.

The deal signals NVDA intends to own the full AI stack, reinforcing its position as the undisputed leader in the semiconductor industry.

How Wall Street recommends playing Nvidia shares

Despite a strong rally in NVDA stock this year, Wall Street expects it to rally further in 2026.

The consensus rating on Nvidia shares currently sits at “strong buy”, with the mean target of about $256 indicating potential upside of roughly 30% from here.

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