UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti is planning to step down in April 2027, reported the Financial Times.

The move sets in motion a succession race for one of the most powerful roles in global banking.

Ermotti’s intended departure would come after he completes the integration of Credit Suisse, the rival lender UBS rescued in a state-orchestrated takeover in 2023, according to the report.

The planned exit comes at a pivotal moment for Switzerland’s largest bank, which is locked in a public dispute with the Swiss government over proposed tougher capital requirements.

That debate has added pressure to UBS’s leadership and sharpened investor focus on who will eventually take the helm.

Ermotti’s planned departure and unfinished agenda

Ermotti, 65, returned to UBS in 2023 at the request of chair Colm Kelleher, having previously led the bank for nine years until 2020.

He was brought back just weeks after UBS agreed to rescue Credit Suisse from collapse, with a mandate to oversee the complex integration and steady the combined group.

Sources cited in the report said Ermotti intends to step down around the time of the bank’s annual general meeting in 2027, although the exact timing has not yet been finalised and could still change.

When he returned, Ermotti committed to spending three to five years as chief executive, with responsibilities that included managing Credit Suisse’s regulatory and legal issues, developing a growth strategy, and cultivating a pipeline of potential successors.

The integration has largely proceeded smoothly, and UBS’s share price has doubled during Ermotti’s tenure.

However, his second stint has been overshadowed by a clash with the Swiss government over proposals to raise UBS’s capital requirements by about $24 billion.

UBS warned on Monday that the plans would “jeopardise” its success, and analysts have said the uncertainty has weighed on the bank’s valuation.

Implementing or responding to those reforms could fall to Ermotti’s successor.

Leading internal candidates emerge

As preparations for succession gather pace, several internal candidates have emerged.

Aleksandar Ivanovic, UBS’s asset management chief, is seen as one of the most likely contenders, according to the report.

Ivanovic, a Swiss national, joined the group’s executive board in March 2024 and has impressed senior management in running the asset management division.

Other leading candidates include UBS’s wealth management co-heads Iqbal Khan and Robert Karofsky, while Bea Martin, who was named chief operating officer in October, is also viewed as a contender.

Martin previously led UBS’s non-core and legacy unit, overseeing the wind-down of unwanted Credit Suisse assets.

Kelleher is overseeing the process and has said he hopes to emulate the orderly transition seen at his former employer, Morgan Stanley, where multiple internal candidates were considered when James Gorman stepped down in 2023.

He previously described that process as a “bloodless coup”.

Political tensions and leadership stakes

Khan, a former Credit Suisse executive, has long been viewed as a frontrunner.

He joined UBS after a high-profile dispute with his former employer and later moved to Hong Kong in 2024 to become head of Asia-Pacific.

Karofsky, formerly head of the investment bank, was appointed head of the Americas at the same time.

Ermotti had indicated in 2024 that he would step down as chief executive at the end of this year or early 2027, and people cited in the report said he could potentially return as UBS chair in the future if he chose.

He was paid SFr14.9mn ($18.7mn) for 2024, making him Europe’s best-paid bank chief executive that year.

With regulatory pressure mounting and UBS’s strategic direction under scrutiny, the choice of Ermotti’s successor will shape the bank’s next chapter long after the Credit Suisse integration is complete.

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PayPal’s stock price has remained under pressure this year and has moved to its lowest level since April last year. It dropped to a low of $57.25, down by 38% from its highest level in 2025, with its market capitalization falling from over $100 billion to the current $54 billion.

PayPal’s business is facing major headwinds 

PayPal stock continued falling this year as concerns about its growth trajectory this year. The most recent results showed that its revenue rose by 7% in the third quarter to $8.4 billion. This growth is substantially slower than in the past, when the company used to experience double-digit growth rates.

PayPal is facing more challenges, including the rising competition, especially from stablecoins like USDC and USDT. Historically, PayPal transactions costs over 2% of the amount being sent or received. As such, a $2,000 transaction will typically cost over $70.

In contrast, stablecoin transactions normally cost a few pennies. A user will mostly receive the same amount, especially when using layer-2 blockchains like Base and Polygon. 

Therefore, many users are opting to use these stablecoins for payments. Data shows that Ethereum handled stablecoin transactions worth over $8 trillion in the last quarter alone. With stablecoins being in their infancy, there is a likelihood that they will start to take market share from PayPal. 

PayPal has entered the stablecoin industry through its PYUSD coin, which has over $3.7 billion in assets and handled over $15 billion in volume in the last 30 days. The number of its addresses has jumped to 74.8k

The challenge, however, is that its revenue will be negligible unless it gets to a much higher amount. Assuming that PayPal invests all these funds in government bonds that are yielding 4%, it means that its annual revenue will be $148 million. 

Attractive valuation, but risks remain

The only good thing about PayPal is that its business has become highly undervalued. It has a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10, which is lower than the S&P 500 Index’s 22. This valuation multiple is also smaller the sector median of 10 and its five-year average of 25.

The main reason for this valuation is that analysts don’t expect much growth in the future. For example, the average revenue growth estimate among analysts is 4.68% followed by 5.75% in 2026. This growth metric is much lower than the average S&P’s estimate of 8.6%.

PayPal is working to make its stock attractive, including by aggressively buying back its stock. It has also started paying a dividend. However, these measures will likely not boost the stock unless the company starts growing.

PayPal stock price technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the PYPL stock price has been under pressure in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of $92.6 in January last year to the current $57. 

The stock has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular continuation sign. It also remains below all moving averages, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed downwards.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock makes a bearish breakout and moves below $50.

READ MORE: PayPal stock price forecast: Is this fintech giant a buy?

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Shares in Danish offshore wind developer Orsted surged by more than 5% after a US federal judge cleared the company to resume work on its near-complete Revolution Wind project, dealing the first legal blow to the Trump administration’s halt on offshore wind developments.

The decision comes weeks after the White House ordered a pause on five major offshore wind projects along the US East Coast, citing national security concerns flagged by the Pentagon.

On Monday, US District Judge Royce C. Lamberth in Washington said Orsted was likely to suffer “irreparable harm” if construction on Revolution Wind remained suspended, granting an injunction that allows work to restart while the broader legal challenge proceeds.

Revolution Wind, located off the coast of Rhode Island, was about 87% complete when the Interior Department issued a stop-work order on Dec. 22.

The $5 billion project is expected to generate power for around 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

The project is a 50/50 joint venture between Orsted and Skyborn Renewables, a unit of Global Infrastructure Partners owned by BlackRock.

The developers have previously said they have already spent roughly $5 billion on the project.

Orsted said the construction halt was costing the project around $1.4 million a day.

“The project will resume construction work as soon as possible, with safety as the top priority,” the company said, adding it remained focused on delivering affordable and reliable power to the US northeast.

Injunction on Sunrise Wind awaited

Jefferies estimated that the stop-work order would have a relatively small financial impact on Orsted if no further interruptions occur, putting the hit at about DKK 100 million ($15.6 million) for Revolution Wind.

The broker said investors would now focus on Orsted’s other US project, Sunrise Wind, which remains suspended.

Jefferies expects a court date soon for a preliminary injunction in that case, noting that Orsted filed its legal challenge for Sunrise Wind just six days after filing for Revolution Wind.

Shares in Vestas were also expected to benefit from the ruling, with analysts pointing to reduced regulatory risk for US offshore wind projects if courts continue to push back against the administration’s moratorium.

National security argument rejected by Judge

Government lawyers had argued that the pause was justified by newly disclosed, classified information from the Defense Department about offshore wind’s potential national security implications.

Judge Lamberth rejected that argument, questioning the logic of stopping construction entirely while the government reviewed its position.

“You want to stop everything in place, costing them one-and-a-half million a day, while you decide what you want to do?” he said during the hearing.

The injunction will remain in effect until the case is concluded. The Interior Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Offshore wind under political pressure

President Donald Trump has vowed to block wind power projects across the US, telling oil executives last week that “we will not approve any windmills in this country”.

The Interior Department’s moratorium applies to five offshore wind developments along the East Coast.

In addition to Orsted, companies affected include Equinor and Dominion Energy.

For now, investors are betting that the court’s decision marks a turning point, at least for projects already nearing completion.

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The Nasdaq 100 Index and its top exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the QQQ and JEPQ are stuck in a tight range this week as investors wait for key corporate and macro news from the United States. 

The index was trading at $25,787, a few points below the all-time high of $26,787. This article explores some of the top catalysts to watch this week.

Nasdaq 100 Index ascending triangle points to a bullish breakout 

One potential catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index is that it has formed an ascending triangle pattern, a common continuation sign in technical analysis. This pattern is made of a horizontal line, which, in this case, is at $25,860. It also has a diagonal trendline, which connects the lowest point in November, December, and this month.

The index has also remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicators. It is also above the Supertrend indicator. 

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock makes a strong bullish breakout in the coming weeks, potentially to the all-time high of $26,178. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at $27,000.

Corporate earnings season 

The other key catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index and its ETFs, like QQQ and JEPQ, is the upcoming corporate earnings from some of the biggest companies in the United States.

JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, and Delta will be the first companies to publish their numbers on Tuesday. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will publish on Wednesday, while Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock will publish on Thursday.

While all these companies are not in the Nasdaq 100 and its ETFs, chances are that they will set the tone on what to expect in this earnings season. 

Data compiled by FactSet shows that the average earnings estimate is that they grew by 8% in the fourth quarter. However, the final data will likely be better than estimates as it has always done.

More earnings will continue to come out in the next few weeks, including popular names like Microsoft, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms.

US macro data 

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index and key ETFs like QQQ and JEPQ will react to the upcoming US macro data, which will help to set the tone for the Federal Reserve.

The first important data will come out later today. Economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% and the core CPI rose 2.7%.

US inflation data is important as it will help to determine what the Federal Reserve will do in its next meetings this year.

The inflation report comes a few days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the relatively mixed nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. The data showed that the economy created 5ok jobs, while the unemployment rate improved from 4.6% in November to 4.4%.

Meanwhile, the US will release the latest Producer Price Oscillator (PPO) and retail sales on Wednesday. 

These numbers come in the same week the Justice Department announced a possible lawsuit against Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve. Most analysts believe that the lawsuit is because of the ongoing differences between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump.

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Over the past year, a series of articles has appeared across fringe legal and financial news platforms claiming to expose fraud, investor deception, and regulatory misconduct tied to a Dallas County lawsuit involving Solidaris Capital and its principal, Geoff Dietrich.

These articles present a familiar narrative: a supposed whistleblower, a shadowy technology company, misled investors, and a scandal likened to Theranos. The problem is not merely that the story is exaggerated.

The problem is that it is fundamentally untrue, procedurally misleading, and built on omissions so severe that the resulting narrative bears little resemblance to the actual record.

At the center of these articles is a Texas state court lawsuit filed by Solidaris Capital LLC.

Readers are told that the lawsuit “reveals fraud,” that investors were misled, and that regulatory violations have already occurred.

None of those statements is supported by the court record. The Dallas action has not resulted in findings of fact, rulings on the merits, or determinations of liability. The filings relied upon by these articles are procedural pleadings—special appearances, notices of authority, and jurisdictional arguments—not adjudications. No evidence has been weighed, no witnesses heard, and no claims proven.

Yet the media coverage converts allegations into conclusions, presenting claims as if they were findings.

This transformation from allegation to “fact” did not happen accidentally. The articles rely almost exclusively on language lifted from Solidaris’s own pleadings while ignoring responsive filings, procedural posture, and basic context.

Reputable outlets declined to publish similar stories after reviewing the underlying docket. The platforms that did publish share a notable trait: they require little verification, rely heavily on press-release style submissions, and do not independently confirm the substance of litigation claims.

What emerges is not journalism, but narrative laundering, where the mere existence of a lawsuit is treated as proof of wrongdoing.

The ethical failures do not stop at mischaracterizing the lawsuit. The articles also omit critical information about the plaintiff itself. Geoff Dietrich and Solidaris are portrayed as aggrieved parties sounding an alarm for the public good.

Absent from the coverage is the fact that Dietrich and affiliated partners have previously filed for bankruptcy, a matter of public record that directly bears on credibility and motive when coupled with the aggressive monetization strategies at issue.

Bankruptcy alone proves nothing, but when combined with the repeated extraction of massive promoter fees from tax-advantaged offerings, it becomes part of the factual landscape readers deserve to understand.

That landscape is far larger than a single lawsuit. From 2022 through 2025, Solidaris-controlled offerings followed a remarkably consistent structure. Investors were promised large charitable deduction multiples, commonly five times invested capital.

Funds were raised through layered entities, with licensing, marketing, and administrative expenses consuming the vast majority of proceeds.

Public records and offering documents show that in many cases approximately three-quarters of investor funds were used for expenses, with roughly two-thirds flowing to Solidaris or entities owned or controlled by Dietrich and his partners. Only a fraction of funds were directed toward manufacturing or acquiring the assets purportedly donated to charity.

Even more troubling, Form 990 filings reveal that several charities associated with these offerings did not report receiving the donated assets at all, despite investors claiming hundreds of millions of dollars in charitable deductions.

This disconnect between promoter claims, investor tax filings, and charity reporting is not addressed in any of the media articles attacking competitors. Instead, the articles redirect attention outward, framing others as deceptive while ignoring the structural and reporting gaps at the center of Solidaris’s own operations.

Nowhere is this selective framing more apparent than in the discussion of regulatory approval. Several articles suggest that the absence of FDA approval for concussion saliva testing technology is evidence of fraud. That implication is false.

Many early-stage diagnostic technologies lawfully operate without FDA approval during development and validation. Lack of approval is not fraud, and no regulator has made such a finding here. More importantly, the articles omit an inconvenient comparison: Solidaris previously promoted NovaDerm, a dermatological product that required significantly higher regulatory approval than concussion saliva screening tools.

NovaDerm was marketed as a product intended to affect human skin physiology, placing it squarely within one of the most tightly regulated categories of medical products. Yet NovaDerm had no FDA approval, no clearance, no completed clinical trials, no published studies, and no peer-reviewed validation. Despite this, it was monetized, promoted to investors, and used to justify massive charitable deductions. I

f lack of FDA approval were truly the standard for fraud implied by the articles, NovaDerm would represent a far clearer and more serious case. The complete omission of NovaDerm from FDA-focused critiques is not an oversight; it is narrative manipulation.

As scrutiny of these structures increased, the response was not transparency but escalation. Solidaris retained elite litigation counsel and public-relations firms and began using lawsuits as both legal tools and public-relations weapons.

The Dallas litigation was not confined to court filings; it was repackaged into articles, amplified through low-integrity publishing platforms, and used to generate defamatory narratives about competitors. Journalists who declined to publish were reportedly pressured or threatened.

Articles that were published repeated false statements about court findings that do not exist and regulatory violations that have never been issued.

This pattern—aggressive fundraising, heavy expense extraction, charitable non-reporting, selective regulatory outrage, litigation-driven publicity, and reputational attacks—forms a coherent picture. It is not the picture presented to readers. Instead, readers are given a morality play with a self-styled whistleblower hero and unnamed villains. The real story is more complex and far more troubling. I

t involves the misuse of charitable tax structures, the weaponization of litigation for competitive suppression, and the erosion of journalistic standards in favor of paid or influenced narratives.

The public interest in correcting this record is substantial. Hundreds of millions of dollars in charitable deductions are implicated annually. Billions in claimed deductions hinge on structures that have not been transparently reported or independently validated.

Media consumers, regulators, and courts rely on accurate reporting to separate allegation from fact. When journalism abandons that responsibility, the damage extends far beyond any single lawsuit.

This is not a story about innovation failing or startups collapsing. It is a story about how narratives are manufactured, how facts are buried, and how the absence of scrutiny enables repeated conduct. Truth does not emerge from repetition. It emerges from evidence, context, and honesty—none of which are present in the articles this rebuttal addresses.

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President Donald Trump has reiterated that US companies will invest at least “$100 billion” to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector under American security guarantees.

Yet major oil chief executives stopped short of committing to a rapid return as they met with the US President over the weekend.

In fact, Exxon’s leader, Darren Woods, even went to the extent of calling Venezuela “uninvestable”.

Still, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has inched higher in recent sessions – reflecting investors’ belief that the Venezuela episode means more opportunity than risk for oil stocks.

Exxon CEO explains why Venezuela isn’t exciting to invest

Exxon executive Darren Woods was blunt in his assessment of Venezuela’s investment climate.

He reminded Trump that Venezuela has seized XOM’s assets twice in the past – leaving the giant with billions in unresolved arbitration claims.

“If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and framework in place in Venezuela today, it’s uninvestable,” Woods added.

“We have had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen here.”

According to him, Exxon is willing to send a technical team to evaluate the state of Venezuela oil infrastructure, but Woods emphasized that without fundamental reforms, the company can’t justify re-entry.

What needs to change in Venezuela to attract investment

Executives from other major US energy companies echoed similar concerns.

For example, Ryan Lance – the chief executive of ConocoPhillips – congratulated President Trump on political changes but stressed that Venezuela’s debt burden and broken financial system must also be addressed.

He believes the banking sector will need to restructure billions in obligations to restore credibility.

Lance also called for a complete overhaul of state‑owned Petróleos de Venezuela – saying, “As we think that big and bold, we need to be also thinking about even restructuring the entire Venezuelan energy system including PDVSA.”

Chevron, which still operates a joint venture in Venezuela, noted it could double liftings immediately and expand production by 50% within two years – but even its cautious optimism underscored the need for disciplined investment frameworks.

What to expect from US oil stocks in 2026

For US oil stocks, the Venezuela debate highlights both opportunity and risk.

On one hand, access to the country’s vast reserves could provide majors with long‑term growth if reforms materialize. On the other hand, hesitation from Exxon and Conoco shows that investors should not expect quick gains.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested smaller independents and wildcatters may move faster, noting, “The big oil companies who move slowly, who have corporate boards, are not interested.”

That dynamic could shift capital flows toward nimble players rather than established giants.

In 2026, US oil stocks remain supported by strong domestic production and disciplined capital spending – but Venezuela’s uncertain path means Wall Street will treat all announcements with caution.

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The Sensex and Nifty 50 indices continued their downward spiral this year, reaching their lowest levels since November 11. The Nifty 50 Index dropped for six consecutive days, reaching a low of ₹25,560, down by 3% from its highest point this year. Similarly, the Sensex dropped to ₹83,220, also much lower than last year’s high of ₹86,150. 

Nifty 50 and Sensex indices to react to the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs

The blue-chip Nifty 50 and Sensex indices will react to the upcoming Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs against all countries.

This court will rule on whether these tariffs are legal or not, with most analysts expecting it to rule against Trump. Odds of the bank ruling in favor of Trump have dropped to 28%.

In theory, India would be the biggest beneficiary of such a ruling, as the US has maintained a 50% tariff. And last week, Trump threatened to impose a 500% levy on all goods from the country. 

However, the relief rally would be short-lived as Trump has other tools to use against the country and achieve the same goal. The challenge is that such measures have some limits and are significantly lengthy. 

Key Indian corporate earnings

The other key catalyst for the Nifty 50 and Sensex Index is the upcoming corporate earnings from the country. Top consulting companies, which were some of the laggards last year, will publish their results. 

Tata Consultancy Services, the second-biggest IT consulting company after Accenture, will be the first one to release its earnings on Monday. HCL Tech, a company valued at over $46 billion, will also release its numbers on Monday.

Infosys and Wipro will release their numbers on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. These numbers will provide information on whether the IT consulting industry returned to growth.

At the same time, the results will show the impact of Donald Trump’s decision to increase the cost of H1-B visa to $100,000 last year. These companies, especially TCS and Infosys will be the most affected by these changes.

More Indian companies like Jio Financial Services, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, ICICI, HDFC, and Yes Bank will release their numbers this week.

These results come on the same week that the US earnings season kicks off, with the biggest banks publishing their numbers.

India macro data and impact on the RBI

Meanwhile, Indian stocks will react to the upcoming macro data from India, which will have an impact on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The first key data to watch will be the upcoming inflation report, which will be released later on Monday.

Economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 0.71% in November to 1.50% in December. Such an increase means that the RBI may slow down its interest rate cuts. It recently slashed the benchmark rate from 5.50% to 5.25% as inflation retreated.

Nifty 50 Index has formed a risky pattern

The daily chart shows that the Nifty 50 Index has formed a highly bearish pattern. It formed a double-top pattern at ₹26,370 and a neckline at ₹25,700, its lowest level in December.

The index has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have pointed to more downside.

It has moved below the strong pivot reverse level of the Murrey Math Line. Therefore, the most likely outlook for the index will be bearish, with the next target to watch being at ₹25,000.

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Malaysia and Indonesia have blocked access to Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence chatbot Grok, citing concerns that the tool is being used to generate non-consensual, sexually explicit, and obscene content, including material involving women and children.

The coordinated action over the weekend marks the first known bans of the AI tool globally and adds to growing regulatory pressure on xAI and its parent platform, X.

Regulators cite failures in safeguards

Malaysia’s Communications and Multimedia Commission ordered temporary restrictions on Grok on Sunday, pointing to what it described as “repeated failures by X Corp” to address content risks associated with the chatbot.

The regulator said X’s responses were “insufficient” and relied too heavily on user reporting mechanisms rather than addressing structural risks in the design of the AI tool.

“Accordingly, the restriction is imposed as a preventive and proportionate measure while legal and regulatory processes are ongoing,” the commission said.

“Access to Grok will remain restricted until effective safeguards are implemented, particularly to prevent content involving women and children.”

Indonesia imposed a similar temporary block a day earlier.

Its Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs said it had asked X officials to clarify the matter, stressing that misuse of AI to generate fake pornography constitutes “digital-based violence.”

Minister Meutya Hafid said, “The government views non-consensual sexual deepfakes as a serious violation of human rights, dignity, and citizens’ security in the digital space.”

Both countries enforce strict anti-pornography laws, which ban the online distribution of obscene or sexual material.

Allegations of misuse and global scrutiny

The bans follow reports that Grok enabled users to generate and share non-consensual explicit images, including child sexual abuse material.

The Internet Watch Foundation told NBC News it had seen dark web users sharing “criminal imagery” they said was created using Grok, depicting underage girls virtually undressed.

Wired also reported that the tool had been used to digitally strip women in photos wearing modest or religious clothing such as hijabs, saris, and nuns’ habits.

Grok’s reach expanded recently after xAI updated its “Grok Imagine” features, making image generation from text prompts easier and integrating the tool more deeply with X.

Authorities in other regions, including the European Union, the UK, Brazil, and India, have also launched probes into Grok’s role in facilitating obscene and non-consensual deepfakes.

In the US, some Democratic lawmakers have urged app stores to suspend the AI tool until stronger safeguards are in place.

Amid the backlash, xAI said it would limit image generation and editing features to paying subscribers in an effort to close safeguard gaps.

Musk said on X that users creating illegal content via Grok would face consequences equivalent to uploading such material directly to the social media platform.

However, regulators said those steps did not go far enough.

CNBC reported that attempts to contact xAI for comment returned an automatic reply stating, “Legacy Media Lies.”

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Gold and silver continued their merry run from last year as prices reached fresh record highs on Monday. 

Investors flocked to bullion as safe-haven demand increased due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. 

Growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year also boosted sentiment among investors. 

Lower interest rates bode well for non-yielding metals such as gold and silver as their demand goes up. 

At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,580.74 per ounce, up 1.8%. The contract had hit a fresh record high of $4,612.40 per ounce earlier in the day. 

Meanwhile, the silver contract was at $83.475 per ounce, up 5.3%. The contract had hit a record high on COMEX of $83.880 per ounce. 

Geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven appeal

Iran’s unrest has resulted in over 500 deaths, according to a rights group’s statement on Sunday. 

This comes as Tehran issued a threat to target US military bases if President Donald Trump acts on his renewed threats to strike Iran in support of the protesters.

According to a Sunday CNN report, Trump is considering various military responses in Iran, prompted by recent deadly protests within the country. 

Sources indicated that Trump may act upon his earlier threats to strike the Iranian regime if it uses lethal force against civilians.

The unrest in Iran coincides with a period of aggressive US international action under Trump, notably the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and discussions around acquiring Greenland.

In a move demonstrating the continent’s commitment to Arctic security, the UK and Germany are reportedly in talks to expand their military presence in Greenland. 

This action is intended to signal their seriousness on the issue to Trump.

“Uncertainty and geopolitical risks across the globe have boosted a traditional safe-haven asset like gold,” Lallalit Srijandorn, editor at FXstreet, said in a report. 

Fed rate cut hopes

Expectations for US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts were reinforced by a mixed US jobs report last week, offering a degree of support to the price of the yellow metal.

Despite slower-than-anticipated US employment growth in December, which included job reductions across the construction, retail, and manufacturing industries, the labour market did not show signs of rapid deterioration, as suggested by a drop in the unemployment rate.

The expectation among investors is for a minimum of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a likelihood that increases with a softer job market. 

Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment concerning Congressional testimony, which Powell dismissed as a “pretext” to further pressure the central bank to lower rates.

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said:

We expect the Fed to hold steady in January and wait for further data points. 

Bullish momentum remains intact

The technical outlook for XAU/USD (gold/dollar) favors the bulls, underpinned by several indicators, according to Haresh Menghani, editor at FXstreet. 

Over the last month, the upward price movement has been contained within an upward-sloping channel, confirming a solid short-term uptrend. 

Further supporting this positive trend is the fact that gold is trading above its upward-sloping 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is expected to act as dynamic support around the $4,325-$4,320 zone, Menghani said in a report. 

Momentum is also strengthening, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): the MACD line is above the Signal line and remains positive, while the histogram is widening, he added.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 71.82 (overbought), which could temper immediate gains and invite consolidation near the upper boundary.

The broader bullish trend is supported by the rising 200-day SMA, while any market pullback is expected to find support at the channel’s base, which is situated near the $4,365 level.

Sustained traction above these supports would keep the path higher intact, while a clear break above channel resistance would open a fresh leg toward higher territory.

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Global markets opened the week under pressure as investors reacted to escalating political tensions in the United States, fresh uncertainty over central bank independence, and a series of geopolitical and political developments spanning Asia and Europe.

Moves in currencies, equities, and commodities reflected growing unease, while attention also turned to Japan’s domestic politics and renewed US-Denmark tensions over Greenland.

Global markets react to Fed tensions

The US dollar weakened and equity futures slipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, while the dollar index dropped 0.3%, on track for its biggest one-day decline since mid-December.

Safe-haven assets rallied sharply.

Gold surged to a fresh record high above $4,600 an ounce, supported both by concerns over US institutional stability and by geopolitical tensions linked to unrest in Iran.

The Swiss franc strengthened 0.4% to 0.7979 per dollar, while the euro rose 0.17% to $1.1656.

Traders said the developments were unsettling, though the immediate implications for interest rate policy remained unclear.

Fed funds futures are priced at roughly three basis points more in rate cuts for the year.

“This open warfare between the Fed and the US administration … it’s clearly not a good look for the US dollar,” said National Australia Bank’s head of currency strategy, Ray Attrill, in a Reuters report.

Oil prices held onto recent gains amid Middle East risks, with Brent crude easing about 40 cents to $62.90 a barrel.

European stock futures edged lower, while Asian equities rose, led by technology stocks, after US labour data suggested employment growth was slowing but not collapsing.

MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index was up 0.4%.

Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

US probe into Jerome Powell escalates

The market reaction followed Powell’s statement on Sunday that federal prosecutors had served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas linked to his June testimony before the Senate Banking Committee about a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said.

He described the investigation as a “pretext” and said it reflected broader pressure from the White House to force faster and deeper interest rate cuts.

Powell has denied accusations that he misled Congress, saying the Fed “made every effort to keep Congress informed.”

President Donald Trump said he had no knowledge of the probe, telling NBC News it had nothing to do with interest rates, but again criticised Powell’s performance.

The investigation is being overseen by the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.

Lawmakers from both parties warned the probe could undermine the Fed’s independence, while markets responded with falling futures, a weaker dollar, and higher gold prices.

Japan moves toward early election

In Asia, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is preparing to dissolve the Lower House later this month and call a snap election likely in February, according to public broadcaster NHK.

The move would come just four months into Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s term and appears aimed at capitalising on her strong public support.

Takaichi’s approval rating stands at 75%, according to a Nikkei survey, marking the third straight month above 70%.

The LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, hold a slim majority in the 465-seat Lower House, though they remain in the minority in the Upper House.

The political backdrop is complicated by economic headwinds.

Japan’s yen slid to a one-year low of 158.19 per dollar, inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s target for 44 consecutive months, and revised data showed the economy contracted more than initially estimated in the third quarter.

US and Denmark to discuss Greenland

Separately, US officials are set to meet Danish counterparts this week to discuss Greenland, according to diplomatic sources cited by CBS News.

The talks follow renewed comments from Trump suggesting the US could acquire the territory, including by force if necessary.

“If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will take Greenland, and I am not going to let that happen,” Trump said on Sunday.

Danish officials have pushed back strongly, with Greenland’s leaders reiterating they do not want to become part of the US.

The rhetoric has further strained relations with European allies and raised questions about Washington’s commitment to NATO, adding another layer of geopolitical risk for global markets already grappling with uncertainty.

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