Vietnam’s National Assembly, on Thursday, took a significant step towards bolstering its nascent domestic rare earth processing sector by approving a revised law. 

This new legislation imposes stricter controls on the export of refined rare earths while definitively re-stating the long-standing ban on exporting raw rare earth ore. 

The move is a concerted effort to support and nurture a domestic industry that has historically struggled to fully capitalise on Vietnam’s vast, substantial rare earth reserves, which are estimated to be among the world’s largest. 

The government is fostering a more robust and self-sufficient domestic supply chain—essential for global high-tech and green energy sectors—by restricting exports of refined, value-added products and maintaining the ban on unprocessed ore. 

This strategy is designed to keep the associated economic benefits, technological expertise, and job creation from rare earth processing within the country.

Bolstering domestic processing sector

Vietnam possesses notable deposits of rare earth elements, according to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). 

These elements are crucial for numerous high-tech applications, including consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and defense technology. 

Despite being recognised as having some of the world’s largest deposits, there has been a significant revision in the official estimate of Vietnam’s reserves.

Earlier this year, the USGS dramatically lowered its assessment of the country’s rare earth reserves.

The estimate was reduced from an initial figure of 22 million metric tonnes down to 3.5 million metric tonnes. 

This considerable downward revision, a reduction of over 84%, highlights the complexities and uncertainties involved in accurately surveying and quantifying mineral resources, even in areas long known for their abundance.

This change in the official reserve figure has important implications for global supply chain planning and for Vietnam’s strategic position in the critical minerals market. 

While the country remains a key player, the revised numbers suggest a smaller long-term resource base than previously thought.

Revised reserve estimates and global context

The current revisions to mineral law indirectly curb the export of refined rare earths.

This is achieved by mandating that “deep processing of rare earths must be linked to establishing a modern industrial ecosystem to enhance the domestic value chain and guarantee autonomy.”

The global West is urgently seeking non-Chinese sources for refined rare earths, which are vital components in modern technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. 

This push is a direct response to China’s dominant position in the global supply chain and the export controls Beijing imposed in April, escalating trade tensions with the US and highlighting Western vulnerability in these sensitive industries.

Given that Vietnam currently has almost no refining capacity, its restrictions will have no immediate effect.

The exploitation of rare earth reserves has been hampered by long-standing regulatory obstacles, preventing both local companies and international collaborators from accessing them. 

This is despite the country’s ban on exporting rare earth ores, which has been in place since at least 2021.

The new law reinforces the prohibition on exporting ores and emphasizes the need for stringent control over “exploration, exploitation and processing activities.”

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While current price charts indicate deteriorated optimism in crypto, the December 10 session confirmed staggering institutional appetite.

Notably, investors poured substantial funds into all leading crypto ETFs on Wednesday.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana attracted massive inflows as demand skyrocketed ahead of the much-anticipated December 10 Federal Reserve meeting.

Bitcoin ETFs in the spotlight

US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds dominated yesterday’s flows with $223.5 million, according to SoSoValue.

That marks a sharp revival of enthusiasm, especially after it attracted $151 million the previous day.

The figures indicate a strong institutional appetite as large-scale investors bet on potential recoveries even as crypto navigates the usual December uncertainty.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF, IBIT, once again proved its sector’s dominance.

The fund drew $193 million in inflows, accounting for the largest amount of funds that entered Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday.

That demonstrated long-term conviction as investors wait for a clearer market trajectory. Investors are likely dip-buying amidst the prevailing price declines.

BTC is trading at $90,290 after losing over 2% the past 24 hours.

Ethereum quietly builds momentum

Also, Ethereum funds performed well on December 10, extending their winning streak to three days with $57.6 million ETF inflows.

The consistency indicates revived investor optimism even as the ETH price underperforms.

Such trends confirm the belief that Ethereum is a core crypto asset in the saturated cryptocurrency industry, kept elevated by its unique role in tokenization experiments, DeFi, and enterprise-grade blockchain pilot.

ETH price lost nearly 4% the past 24 hours after consolidating in most of the previous week’s sessions.

XRP and Solana ETFs see steady support

New altcoin exchange-traded funds have thrived in recent sessions. Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs displayed positive flows on December 10.

XRP has seen inflows since deputing on November 13.

The ETFs pulled $10.20 million yesterday, with its total net inflows now at $954 million.

That impressive performance demonstrated XRP’s loyal community of retail and institutional supporters.

Solana ETFs brought $4.85 million in inflows on December 10, pushing its cumulative net inflow to $661.46 million.

The fund has attracted positive flows since December 4, reflecting Solana’s institutional appeal.

Indeed, the project has established itself as a developer-friendly, fast, and scalable blockchain, and its growing relevance in payments, innovative dApps, and gaming likely magnifies its reputation as a leading cryptocurrency platform.

Altogether, yesterday’s ETF inflows emphasized confidence slowly creeping back, despite unpredictable crypto prices.

The massive inflows into the top exchange-traded funds signal revived optimism and a shift away from defensive positioning.

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Scottish Mortgage share price popped this week, reaching its highest level since November 5. SMT jumped to a high of 1,140p, up by 11% from its lowest level in November and by 46% from its lowest point in November last year. 

Scottish Mortgage share price is soaring amid SpaceX IPO news

SMT is a large British fund that invests in private and publicly traded companies from around the world. Most of its portfolio companies are from the United States, with other big names being from China and Europe. 

The biggest companies in its portfolio are companies like SpaceX, TSMC, Mercadolibre, Amazon, Bytedance, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, ASML, Shopify, and Stripe. 

SMT stock price jumped this week after a report by Bloomberg said that SpaceX was planning an IPO that would see it raise over $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.5 trillion. Elon Musk responded to the report by saying that it was largely accurate.

The SpaceX IPO will be the biggest one after Saudi Aramco’s, which raised $29 billion in 2019. It will be a major win for Scottish Mortgage as the company is the biggest component of its portfolio with an 8.2% stake.

The IPO will enable SMT to realize an investment it made a few years ago when the company was valued at less than $100 billion. Most importantly, it will enable it to sell some of the shares it currently holds. 

Most importantly, there is a likelihood that SpaceX’s valuation will continue soaring after it goes public despite its pricey valuation. A good example of this is Tesla, an automaker that spots one of the biggest premiums.

Data compiled by Seeking Alpha shows that the company has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 347 and a trailing multiple of 269. It also has a PEG ratio of 8.30, much higher than its five-year average of 4.94.

Top SMT portfolio companies are doing well

The Scottish Mortgage share price is doing well because it has stakes in key companies that are disrupting the tech world. It has large stakes in TSMC, Nvidia, and ASML, which are essential in the ongoing AI boom. 

Nvidia makes the most advanced GPUs, while TSMC manufactures chips for the biggest companies in the industry. ASML is the only company that makes the large equipment used by semiconductor companies.

Scottish Mortgage also has huge stakes in companies like Amazon, Cloudflare, and Databricks that are big names in the cloud computing industry. 

Additionally, it invested in Bytedance, a company that owns TikTok, the fastest-growing social media company in the world. Like SpaceX, analysts believe that a Bytedance IPO, if it ever happens, will be a big one as the company is now valued at over $480 billion. 

SMT share price technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart reveals that the Scottish Mortgage share price has bounced back in the past few days. It jumped from a low of 1,016p in November to the current 1,140p. 

It is about to flip the Supertrend indicator from red to green. Also, the stock has moved above all moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control for now.

Top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed upwards. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1,176p. A move above that level will invalidate the double-top pattern and point to more gains. 

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SoftBank Group shares fell sharply on Thursday after Oracle’s weaker-than-expected quarterly results renewed worries about how long it will take for massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure to translate into profits.

The stock closed down nearly 7.7% in Tokyo, having dropped as much as 8.4% intraday, dragging the broader market lower.

Oracle said its revenue and operating income for the latest quarter came in slightly below analysts’ expectations, while also raising its spending forecast.

The cloud-computing company’s updated outlook added to concerns that the industry’s aggressive data-center buildout may take longer than anticipated to generate returns, particularly as power-hungry AI models require significant upfront investment.

Oracle’s miss sends ripples through SoftBank’s AI plans

SoftBank has deep exposure to Oracle through its ambitious AI partnerships.

In January, SoftBank Group and OpenAI announced plans to invest up to half a trillion dollars in US AI infrastructure, alongside Oracle and other partners.

SoftBank is expected to lead the financing for the initiative, while OpenAI will oversee operations.

The trio, along with Oracle, also announced in September five new US AI data-center sites under the project known as Stargate.

Oracle’s underwhelming earnings and escalating capital expenditures have therefore raised questions about whether these large-scale infrastructure plans will progress on schedule.

“The Nikkei opened higher to track overnight Wall Street gains, but the advance was erased by declines in SoftBank Group,” said Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory market analyst Shuutarou Yasuda.

“Oracle’s earnings raised concerns about whether the data-center project involving SoftBank would proceed as expected.”

AI spending grows faster than returns

Oracle’s updated financial projections deepened investor unease.

The company forecast adjusted profit of $1.64 to $1.68 per share for the current quarter—below analyst expectations—and projected revenue growth of 16% to 18%, also missing estimates.

More significantly, Oracle said capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 would be $15 billion higher than previously expected, bringing total planned spending far above the September estimate of $35 billion.

Analysts said the rapid increase in investment requirements has unsettled markets.

“The ramp in capex and unclear debt needs are causing uncertainty among investors,” said Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global’s Visible Alpha.

SoftBank volatility persists amid broader AI race

SoftBank shares have swung sharply in recent weeks amid growing caution over the surge in AI-related stocks and speculation that Google may be pulling ahead in the AI race, a potential challenge for OpenAI—one of SoftBank’s most important investees.

SoftBank’s mobile-carrier unit, SoftBank Corp., announced last month it would partner with Oracle to provide sovereign cloud and AI services in Japan, further deepening ties between the two companies.

But with Oracle’s results seen as a bellwether for the capital-intensive AI infrastructure sector, the latest earnings have heightened investor scrutiny of how soon major tech and telecom groups will see returns on their multibillion-dollar AI bets.

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JPMorgan Chase is preparing another expansion step in India, setting the stage for a fresh phase of growth in a country that has become a priority for global financial institutions.

As per a Bloomberg report, the bank is moving ahead with plans for a new branch in Pune, marking its first addition in almost a decade.

The development shows how international lenders are strengthening their presence to capture rising demand from Indian corporates and the broader economy.

As India continues to record strong economic momentum, credit growth, and investment flows, global banks are positioning themselves to play a larger role in the country’s expanding financial system while navigating evolving local dynamics.

The lender has secured an in-principle approval from the Reserve Bank of India to establish a new branch in Pune.

This will be the firm’s fourth branch in the country once it becomes operational.

Experts said the move said the Pune location will primarily serve corporate clients and will offer a full set of services, including term lending and transaction banking.

Rising interest in India

The move reflects a broader shift among foreign banks, which are expanding in India as they look for growth markets with steady economic conditions.

Strong demand for credit, rising corporate activity, and a favourable macro environment have encouraged global lenders to increase their presence.

India’s scale and stability have made it an attractive destination for firms seeking opportunities that align with long-term strategies.

This growing interest has brought renewed attention to major commercial hubs like Pune and Mumbai, where the expansion of multinational companies continues to support financial activity across many fast-developing sectors.

Previous expansion

JPMorgan last received approval to add branches in the country in 2016, when it was permitted to open in three locations.

Since then, the bank has broadened its operations by building out commercial banking services for domestic mid-cap companies, extending its reach beyond large multinationals.

The firm has also opened a new campus, highlighting how its investments in India span technology, services, and on-the-ground presence.

This multi-year expansion reflects a strategy centred on building a wider ecosystem to support both local and global clients, especially those operating across varied sectors.

Wider India footprint

The new branch positions JPMorgan to strengthen its existing presence, which already covers asset management, investment banking, and commercial banking.

The firm’s activities support clients across financing, advisory, and operational needs, ranging from cross-border transactions to domestic lending.

With India’s financial market becoming more active each year, the new location offers an opportunity to deepen relationships with companies that are expanding both within and outside the country.

The development signals that India remains an area of strategic focus as the global banking landscape evolves and becomes increasingly competitive.

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Oracle shares dropped 11% in premarket trading on Thursday, extending the previous session’s losses after the company reported quarterly results that underscored both the promise and the pressure of its accelerating cloud ambitions.

While adjusted earnings beat analyst expectations by a wide margin, revenue fell short, raising fresh questions about the sustainability of Oracle’s aggressive infrastructure build-out at a time when the company is taking on unprecedented levels of debt.

Revenue miss weighs on sentiment despite earnings beat

Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $16.1 billion, missing Wall Street’s estimate of $16.2 billion.

The shortfall came despite surging demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and strong cloud services growth.

Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.26, far above the $1.64 expected and a notable increase from $1.47 last year.

Much of that gain, however, was driven by Oracle’s $2.7 billion sale of its stake in Ampere, which boosted pretax earnings by 91 cents per share.

Cloud revenue rose 34% year-on-year to nearly $8 billion, now accounting for almost half of the company’s total revenue.

The cloud infrastructure business — renting servers and computing power to customers — grew even faster, with a 68% jump in sales.

Meanwhile, Oracle’s legacy packaged software business declined 1% from a year earlier.

Despite the strong cloud momentum, the company’s guidance disappointed investors, triggering a deeper slide in the stock.

Oracle shares fell to $197.8 in early trading, down sharply from recent highs.

Other AI-linked names also came under pressure: Nvidia, Microsoft, CoreWeave and AMD all traded lower premarket.

Rising capital expenditure and debt levels raise red flags

Oracle’s expansion into cloud infrastructure has reshaped its financial profile.

The company has spent $35 billion on capital expenditures over the past 12 months, resulting in free cash flow losses of $13 billion.

Analysts say the shift to cloud — which carries lower margins than Oracle’s traditional software — is weighing on profitability.

Adjusted operating margin fell to 41.9% from 43.4% a year earlier.

The firm has increasingly relied on debt to support these investments.

Oracle raised $18 billion in a jumbo bond sale in September, one of the largest ever for the tech sector.

It has also secured billions in construction loans tied to new data centers in New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke estimates the company may need to raise $20 billion to $30 billion in debt annually over the next three years.

Credit markets have taken note: the price of Oracle’s debt has fallen, while credit default swap prices — a measure of default risk — have risen.

After briefly easing, swap prices began climbing again following the earnings release.

Cloud backlog grows but execution risks persist

Oracle’s multi-year backlog reached $523 billion, up $68 billion from the previous quarter, driven in part by the company’s massive contract with OpenAI.

The scale of that agreement, however, has drawn scrutiny given OpenAI’s substantial funding requirements.

Oracle shares have fallen 33% since concerns emerged about the feasibility of executing such commitments.

Analysts remain divided.

Some highlight the long-term opportunity from AI infrastructure demand, while others caution that heavy spending, rising leverage, and shrinking margins pose risks.

Oracle maintains it can fund its expansion while preserving its investment-grade credit rating.

Chief executive Clay Magouyrk said required financing would fall below the $100 billion some analysts have forecast.

As Oracle ramps up construction on Project Stargate — a multibillion-dollar push to build next-generation data centers — investors appear increasingly focused on whether the company can balance rapid cloud expansion with financial discipline.

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Dow futures declined over 100 points on Thursday as Oracle’s results reignited fears about high-flying tech stocks.

The futures tied to other Wall Street indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were also trading in red even after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut gave a boost to US equity markets on Wednesday.

While the Fed’s accommodative stance provided temporary support on Wednesday, Oracle’s shortfall exposed underlying vulnerabilities in the tech complex.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. The Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, lowering borrowing costs to 3.5%-3.75%.

This move signals the central bank’s effort to support a weakening job market, though divisions run deep within the committee.

The decision came with a 9:3 majority, with two members voting for holding the interest rates, while Trump appointed Stephan Miran, voting for a broader cut.

Inflation remains sticky above the Fed’s 2% target, constraining future easing. Markets are pricing in just one additional cut for 2026, suggesting the cutting cycle is approaching its end.

2. Oracle’s premarket crash triggered a broader AI sector bloodbath Thursday morning.

The database giant plunged 11-12%, raising fresh doubts about whether lavish AI spending can justify sky-high valuations.

The damage rippled across the entire complex as Nvidia dipped 1.5%, CoreWeave tumbled 3%, and even chip-making peers Broadcom and AMD felt pressure.

What spooked investors wasn’t just Oracle’s missed revenue; it was management’s bombshell forecast that capex would surge to $50 billion annually, nearly $15 billion higher than expected.

3. After the Fed’s rate-cut decision, Wall Street is looking at the next set of key economic data.

Thursday’s economic calendar is packed with data that could reshape market sentiment.

Jobless claims headline the morning releases at 8:30 AM ET, with economists expecting claims to rise to 220,000 from 191,000 the prior week, a meaningful uptick that could signal labor market softening.

The trade deficit is projected to widen to $62.5 billion from $59.6 billion, reflecting persistent import demand despite tariff concerns.

4. Silver’s explosive run in 2025 isn’t slowing down.

The so-called “devil’s metal” surged to a record $62.88 per ounce this week, doubling in value since January as the market continues to grapple with a deep structural supply shortage.

Some industry veterans are calling for much higher levels and even predicting that silver could climb to $100 per ounce.

There’s plenty feeding the bullish narrative, like five straight years of supply deficits, rapidly rising demand from AI hardware and solar manufacturing, and a gold-silver ratio.

5. The global stocks experienced a whipsaw session on Thursday as gains from the Fed’s third rate cut evaporated after Oracle’s earnings disaster.

Japan’s Nikkei initially rose but closed down 0.9%, weighed down by SoftBank’s 5% plunge on AI concerns and yen strength pressuring exporters.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fared better, rising 0.8% in early trade, buoyed by tech recovery hopes.

Europe mirrored the tech carnage as STOXX 600 slipped 0.2% for a third consecutive loss as SAP fell 2.8% and ASML declined 1.2%, overshadowing relief from Powell’s hawkish-cut messaging.

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Drax Group announced on Thursday that it is considering converting a section of its Yorkshire power station in northern England into a data centre as early as 2027.

The project would repurpose land, cooling systems, and transformers that were previously used for coal generation, according to a Reuters report.

Europe’s landscape of energy infrastructure is on the cusp of a significant transformation, driven by the insatiable energy demands of the artificial intelligence boom.

Repurposing legacy infrastructure

Ageing coal and gas-fired power plants, once destined for decommissioning, are now attracting the attention of global tech behemoths like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services (AWS).

These companies are actively seeking to repurpose these legacy power generation sites into vast new data centres.

The primary appeal of these former power plants lies in their existing, robust infrastructure.

Crucially, they possess immediate, high-capacity grid connections, which are essential for powering the energy-intensive operations of modern data centres and their sophisticated cooling systems.

Furthermore, their location, often near major water sources, provides a ready-made and efficient supply for the considerable water-based cooling needs of these facilities.

This repurposing offers a dual benefit: it breathes new economic life into sites that might otherwise become industrial relics, and it helps technology giants rapidly scale their data centre footprint to keep pace with the explosion in AI-driven compute requirements.

This trend underscores a critical convergence point between the old industrial economy and the new digital economy, highlighting a pragmatic and sustainable way to leverage existing infrastructure to meet the unprecedented energy spike created by advanced AI applications and machine learning models.

Drax’s data centre strategy and capacity

Drax is planning a 100-megawatt data centre at its site, with a planning application currently being prepared.

The company aims to expand this capacity beyond 1 gigawatt after 2031 to meet the rapidly increasing British power demand, largely fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence.

“We would effectively provide the land and the power connection and the power working with a data centre developer,” Drax CEO Will Gardiner said in an interview to Reuters.

Due to the rapid expansion of data centres, companies are increasingly looking for sites that already possess power connections. This approach helps them bypass the long waiting times associated with connecting to the power grid.

Last month, RWE reported a book gain of 225 million euros ($263 million) following the sale of a former coal-fired power plant site in Britain to a data centre developer.

JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Drax’s plan.

While nothing has been agreed, we believe this is a more optimistic timeline than investors would otherwise expect.

Profit at top end

The power producer’s shares climbed over 2% following a forecast for 2025 core profit that is expected to be near the high end of market predictions.

This growth is driven by performance across its flexible generation, pellet production, and biomass divisions.

Drax aims to generate £3 billion in free cash flow between 2025 and 2031.

This cash flow is planned to be allocated for shareholder returns, with over £1 billion dedicated to this purpose, and up to £2 billion for funding growth investments.

The company is also shutting down its Williams Lake pellet plant in Canada and temporarily halting its Longview project.

This decision reflects an expectation not to invest in additional pellet production capacity in the near future.

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Microsoft’s Satya Nadella has drawn global attention during his India visit, not only for a major investment pledge but also for an unexpected personal project that links artificial intelligence with one of India’s most enduring sporting traditions.

While travelling, the chief executive spent his free time building a Deep Research AI app to study cricket, a sport he has followed since childhood.

He created it over the Thanksgiving break and used it to test how an AI system would analyse the skills and records of legendary players, reports Bloomberg.

He demonstrated the tool at a company event in Bangalore, where he showed how the app generated detailed reasoning chains and surfaced areas of agreement and disagreement when ranking players.

Nadella used it to choose an all-time Indian test cricket team, beginning with a captaincy decision that the system reached only after weighing various arguments.

The AI tool identified a close contest between Virat Kohli and Mahendra Singh Dhoni before selecting Kohli.

AI momentum in India

Nadella is spending the week meeting business and political leaders as Microsoft sets out a long-term plan for artificial intelligence and cloud computing in India.

The company has committed $17.5 billion over four years, states Bloomberg, marking one of its largest pushes in a rapidly growing technology market.

India’s position as the world’s most populous nation and its expanding base of digital services make it a key region for Microsoft’s broader AI strategy.

Microsoft’s chief executive has often highlighted India’s talent pool, particularly in engineering fields, and the company continues to build partnerships with local institutions.

His latest trip signals that India remains central to plans for AI innovation, infrastructure development and cloud expansion.

Cricket ties inside and outside tech

As per Bloomberg, cricket has long been a part of Nadella’s life, shaping both his interests and his engagement with the Indian diaspora.

He was born and educated in southern India before moving to the US for graduate studies, and the sport has remained a personal anchor throughout his career.

He is also a co-owner of the Seattle Orcas, a professional T20 team in the US, alongside other technology leaders.

These ties extend into Microsoft’s culture as well.

The company added a full cricket field during the redevelopment of its Redmond headquarters, an acknowledgement of the large number of employees of Indian origin and their enthusiasm for the sport.

Microsoft described the ground as one of the first purpose-built recreational cricket facilities to be included within a major corporate or community campus in the US.

AI meets tradition

Nadella’s decision to use his coding time to analyse a centuries-old sport has become a focal point during his visit, notes Bloomberg.

The experiment reflects an emerging trend among developers who are using AI not only for work but also to explore cultural interests and hobbies.

His demonstration showed how research-driven models can approach subjective sporting debates by tracing reasoning pathways and mapping areas of consensus.

Although built for personal use, the tool provided a practical example of how AI systems can handle complex decisions with transparent logic.

The audience in Bangalore saw how the app worked through each step, from comparing captaincy styles to evaluating long-term performance records.

Nadella’s focus on the model’s reasoning process tied the project back to Microsoft’s broader push for accessible, explainable AI tools.

As his meetings continue in India, the combination of a major national investment plan and a cricket-analysis experiment has shaped a distinctive narrative around the visit.

It highlights how AI is crossing into cultural spaces while remaining central to Microsoft’s strategic growth.

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The projected global crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 has narrowed due to a halt in production, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. 

Meanwhile, the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 has been scaled up by the IEA in its December Oil Market Report. 

The Paris-based agency’s December estimate suggests a reduced global oil surplus compared to its November report.

It now projects oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, a decrease from the 4.09 million bpd surplus previously estimated.

Overview

The IEA has increased its global oil demand growth projections for both the current and next year. 

This revision is attributed to an improved global economic outlook and the fact that “anxiety about tariffs having largely subsided.”

Conversely, the IEA anticipates a slight decrease in supply growth for 2025-2026 compared to earlier forecasts.

This expected slowdown is due to sanctions imposed on Russia and Venezuela impacting their oil exports.

The agency also foresees a continuing trend of “parallel markets” for some time. 

This situation involves an abundant crude oil supply existing simultaneously with tight fuel markets. 

The persistence of this dynamic is linked to limited spare refining capacity outside of China and the impact of new EU sanctions on Russian crude-derived fuel exports.

Bright demand outlook

IEA forecast that global oil demand will grow by 830,000 bpd in 2025 and by 860,000 bpd next year. 

The agency said:

Recent strength in US gas liquids demand has been largely offset by persistent weakness in Europe and accelerated substitution away from oil in power generation in the Middle East. 

This year’s gains are primarily driven by gasoil and jet/kerosene, which together account for half of the total increase, the agency said.

Conversely, fuel oil is seeing reduced demand due to competition from natural gas and solar energy in power generation. 

Looking ahead to 2026, petrochemical feedstocks are projected to become the dominant growth sector, with their share of growth expected to rise significantly from 40% in 2025 to over 60%, it said.

According to the IEA, economic confidence has been restored, thanks to a series of successful US trade agreements.

This follows a period earlier in the year when consumption was negatively impacted by tensions related to tariffs.

Sanctions hit supply

The IEA has revised its forecast for global oil supply growth next year, now expecting a rise of 2.4 million bpd, a slight decrease from its previous prediction of 2.5 million bpd.

Due to disruptions caused by sanctions, the IEA has lowered its projected output figures for OPEC+ producers for both 2025 and 2026.

According to the IEA, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 bpd in November compared to the previous month.

This decline was attributed to reduced output from Russia and Venezuela, both of which are facing sanctions.

The IEA reported that Russian export revenues reached their lowest point in November since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Conversely, the IEA maintained its stable forecasts for non-OPEC+ output for both the current and next year, citing increased production primarily in the Americas, specifically the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.

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