The S&P 500 Index remained under pressure last week, falling to its lowest level since November 2025. It dropped to $6,632 on Friday, down sharply from the year-to-date high of $7,700. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs like VOO and SPY.

S&P 500 Index to react to Federal Reserve interest rate decision 

A major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs this week will come out on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve delivers its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Officials will also send a signal on what to expect this year now that the US has moved into a stagflation.

Data released this month showed that the labor market weakened in February, with the economy losing over 92,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February.

Another report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in February. It rose 2.4% in February, while the core inflation rose 2.5%.

Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future.

Top corporate earnings 

The S&P 500 Index has retreated after the recent earnings season, which was highly positive. Data compiled by FactSet showed that the average earnings growth rose by over 13% in the fourth quarter of last year, with most companies, including popular names like Nvidia and Apple.

More smaller companies will publish their financial results this week but the impact on the S&P 500 Index will be limited. Dollar Tree and Aramark will publish their financial results before the markets open on Monday. 

Elbit Systems, Lululemon, DocuSign, and Okta will release their numbers on Tuesday, while Micron, Jabil, Williams-Sonoma, and General Mills will release on Wednesday. The other top companies to publish their numbers are Accenture, FedEx, Darden, and Planet Labs will release their numbers later this week.

Iran war continues, pushing crude oil prices higher 

The S&P 500 Index will react to the ongoing Iran war that has continued in the past few weeks. This war has pushed crude oil prices to the highest level in years, with Brent and the West Texas Intermediate moving to $100. 

Natural gas, heating oil, and other energy prices have jumped. Similarly, fertilizer prices have soared, leading to a surge in fertilizer stocks like Nutrien and Mosaic.

Signs that the war is accelerating will lead to more S&P 500 Index downside. On the other hand, signs that the war is ending will be bullish for the stock market.

S&P 500 Index technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has come under pressure in the past few weeks as the stock market has moved from one crisis to the other, including the woes in the private credit sector.

It has moved from a high of $7,000 in February to $6,630. As a result, the index has moved below the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

The stock has formed a rounded top, a common bearish continuation sign in technical analysis. It remains slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $6,495. 

Top oscillators have continued falling, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have continued falling in the past few months.

Therefore, the index will likely continue falling, with the next key target being the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $6,178. 

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BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE: BBAI) stock plunged nearly 3% on Friday and is trading around $3.95 at press time.

The stock sliced through its intraday support at $4.00, on blistering volume that dwarfed its three-month average by nearly 70%.

The drop left shares nursing losses from a brief post-earnings surge earlier this week, as investors digested fresh concerns over execution risks in the company’s AI defense pivot.

BBAI stock: The selloff mechanics

BBAI stock opened at $4.075 on Friday, peaked at $4.19, then accelerated lower to a session low of $3.91 amid broad small-cap selling pressure.  

That’s a far cry from the $9.39 52-week high, with the stock now 58% off those levels and hugging its 50-day moving average of $4.98.

Interestingly, the significant volatility had no discernible reason apart from the broader market weakness resulting from geopolitical tensions.

It looks like classic profit-taking layered atop technical fatigue.

BigBear.ai’s Q4 2025 results on March 2 showed revenue cratering 38% year-over-year to $27.3 million.

Adjusted EPS eked out a penny beat at -$0.01 versus consensus -$0.06, but the top-line contraction spooked momentum chasers who’d piled in on backlog hype.

Fundamentals vs market reality

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $127 million, down 19%, while the company reported a trailing loss of $0.82 per share.

The figures underscored that the turnaround is still a work in progress.

Even so, there were some brighter spots. Management said the company now has its strongest balance sheet to date, ending the year with $462 million in cash and investments.

In January, it also converted $125 million of 2029 convertible notes into equity, a move that reduces debt obligations and lowers default risk.

Meanwhile, the company’s backlog surged more than threefold to over $400 million, supported by several multi-year contract wins, including participation in the FAA’s $2.4 billion vehicle procurement program.

The company expects 2026 revenue to land between $135 million and $165 million.

The numbers imply mid-teens growth as recent acquisitions, including Ask Sage, begin to contribute more meaningfully.

Friday’s surge in trading volume, the highest since early February’s dilution scare, may signal that some institutional investors are rotating out of the stock.

Options activity also leaned bearish, with heavy put trading tied to the March 13 $4.50 strike, suggesting traders are positioning for further downside.

The stock carries a beta of about 3.46, highlighting its volatility.

The broader market backdrop didn’t help either. The Russell 2000 slipped, though some AI-focused peers such as C3.ai held up better.

Analysts’ views on the stock remain mixed.

HC Wainwright maintains a Buy rating with an $8 price target, while the broader consensus is more cautious, leaning toward Hold with an average target near $6.

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US stocks closed red on Friday, despite showing some recovery and optimism after the opening bell.

The benchmark S&P 500 index slipped 0.61%, leaving it about 5% below its most recent peak.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.93%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 119 points, or 0.25%.

Rising oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions have weighed on market sentiment, keeping investors cautious.

Volume picked up late as bargain hunters nibbled after Thursday’s bloodbath, but traders kept one eye on crude’s volatile swing and President Trump’s stark reminder that the Iran conflict shows no signs of abating.

Utilities lead S&P 500 gains

Six of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors were trading higher on Friday, with utilities leading the gains.

The sector rose about 1.4%, comfortably ahead of energy, which was the second-best performer with an advance of roughly 0.8%.

Meanwhile, five sectors were in negative territory: information technology, communication services, materials, consumer discretionary, and industrials.

Technology and communication services were both down around 1.1% on the day.

For the week, utilities were up close to 1%, while energy was the only other sector on track for gains, climbing about 2.5% over the same period.

Among individual stocks, the tech sector showed considerable weakness with giants Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla ending the day in the red.

Shares of the beauty retailer Ulta Beauty dropped about 12% after the company reported weaker-than-expected earnings.

For the fourth quarter, Ulta posted earnings of $8.01 per share, slightly below analysts’ expectations of $8.03 per share, according to LSEG.

Revenue came in at $3.9 billion, topping the Street’s estimate of $3.8 billion.

Judge blocks Powell subpoena

A federal judge on Friday rejected the Justice Department’s attempt to subpoena Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, delivering a significant legal victory for the central bank.

US District Judge James Boasberg ruled that the subpoenas issued by US Attorney Jeanine Pirro were improper and appeared to be politically motivated.

In his decision, Boasberg said the court found the effort was aimed at pressuring Powell amid President Donald Trump’s ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve and its interest rate policies.

The ruling comes ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve’s high-stakes meeting, where investors are expecting the central bank to hold rates.

“The Court finds that the subpoenas were not issued for a legitimate purpose,” Boasberg wrote.

He added that the evidence suggested the primary goal was to harass Powell and push him either to comply with the president’s demands for lower interest rates or step aside so a new Fed chair could be appointed.

The development comes as a boost for the investors as it provides some certainty around the independence of the Federal Reserve amid the economic crisis.

Mortgage rates climb to 6.41%

Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level since September on Friday as bond yields rose amid escalating tensions related to the war in Iran.

According to Mortgage News Daily, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 6.41%.

Mortgage rates tend to track movements in the 10-year US Treasury yield, which moved higher again on Friday, contributing to the latest increase in borrowing costs.

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Microsoft’s quality rating reached a new high this week, even as the stock’s price momentum remains weak.

At the same time, the company is moving to secure major artificial intelligence infrastructure in Abilene, Texas, as part of a broader effort to expand Azure AI capacity.

The quality score rose week over week from 89.96, while Microsoft’s momentum score stands at 20.40.

Despite improving fundamentals, the stock continues to trend lower across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.

Quality score rises, price momentum lags

Microsoft ranks in the top tier for financial health and operational efficiency following the latest improvement in its quality score to 89.96.

However, the momentum score of 20.40 suggests the market has yet to reflect those stronger fundamentals in the company’s share price.

The stock remains under pressure across multiple time horizons, indicating that investor sentiment has yet to shift despite the improvement in underlying quality metrics.

Texas buildout centers on power and scale

Microsoft is pursuing a roughly 1,000-acre data center complex in Abilene tied to the “Stargate Project.”

The campus could ultimately scale to about 2 gigawatts of capacity, a level viewed as critical for powering increasingly energy-intensive AI workloads.

The project reflects a proactive effort to secure the power and physical space needed to support Azure’s expanding AI ecosystem.

If completed as planned, the Abilene site would provide substantial additional capacity for both training and inference as demand for compute continues to grow.

Legal and geopolitical risks surface

Microsoft has also entered the legal debate around artificial intelligence supply chains, filing an amicus brief in support of Anthropic against a proposed “supply chain risk” designation by the Department of War.

The company warned that such a designation could trigger costly disruptions to defense-related contracts.

At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns about infrastructure-focused cyber threats, with large technology platforms viewed as potential targets.

These risks introduce additional uncertainty at a time when large-scale AI deployments depend on stable supply chains and secure infrastructure.

Stock performance snapshot

Despite the improvement in quality metrics, Microsoft shares remain under pressure.

The stock is down 16.91% so far this year and has fallen 21.19% over the past six months, though it is still up 4.85% over the past year.

What to watch next

Microsoft is doubling down on large-scale AI infrastructure even as it navigates legal and geopolitical challenges.

The gap between stronger quality indicators and weak price momentum will keep investor attention focused on the company’s execution in Abilene and on policy developments that could influence contracts and critical technology supply chains.

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Tesla’s China-made electric vehicle sales increased sharply at the start of 2026, recovering part of the ground it had lost to domestic rival BYD in the world’s largest car market.

Data released by the China Passenger Car Association showed that Tesla delivered significantly more vehicles from its Shanghai factory during the first two months of the year compared with the same period in 2025.

The improvement came despite a seasonal slowdown tied to the Chinese New Year holiday in February.

While Tesla’s shipments grew strongly, competition across China’s electric vehicle sector has intensified, with local manufacturers expanding product lines, introducing new technologies, and pushing deeper into overseas markets.

Tesla China sales growth

Tesla delivered 127,728 China-made electric vehicles in January and February combined, according to data published Thursday by the China Passenger Car Association.

The figure represents a rise of more than 35% from the 93,926 vehicles recorded during the same period a year earlier.

The industry body adjusted the figures to account for the two-week Chinese New Year holiday that took place in mid-February, which typically slows production and consumer activity across multiple industries.

Vehicles produced at Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory include the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y sport utility vehicle.

The plant supplies the domestic Chinese market and export destinations such as Europe and the Asia Pacific region.

BYD maintains EV leadership

Despite Tesla’s rebound, China’s BYD continues to hold a strong lead in the global electric vehicle market.

The Shenzhen based automaker overtook Tesla in 2025 to become the world’s largest EV seller on a calendar year basis.

During the first two months of 2026, BYD reported a 36% decline in deliveries compared with the previous year.

Even so, the company still remained ahead of Tesla in overall volumes.

Tesla’s sales performance remained notable.

Shipments of its China-made vehicles were more than double those of Leapmotor, the next closest competitor behind the two industry leaders.

Chinese automakers intensify competition

Competition within China’s electric vehicle sector continues to grow as domestic manufacturers roll out new technologies and models aimed at attracting buyers.

BYD recently introduced an upgraded Blade battery and charging system that can charge from 10% to 97% in around nine minutes.

The development has drawn attention for addressing concerns about battery range and charging times.

The company has also expanded its overseas presence.

Export shipments surpassed domestic sales for the first time in February.

New models reshape China EV market

Other Chinese automakers are gaining ground by offering vehicles with advanced features at lower prices.

According to data from Autohome, Geely’s Xingyuan became the best selling car model in China during February, surpassing offerings from both companies.

In the previous month, Xiaomi’s YU7 sport utility vehicle replaced Tesla’s Model Y as the country’s top selling car.

The China Passenger Car Association said March sales figures may provide a clearer view of the market as production and retail activity typically rebound after the Spring Festival holiday and seasonal factory shutdowns.

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Shares of Adobe fell sharply by 8% in premarket trading on Friday after the software company said long-time chief executive Shantanu Narayen would step down, triggering investor concern at a time when the industry is also grappling with rapid changes brought about by artificial intelligence.

While the fiscal first quarter results largely beat estimates, the magnitude was not enough to assuage concerns that AI could make software companies’ services irrelevant.

Slow growth in the company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) also showed that AI is not driving significant financial benefits yet.

The move also follows a broader sell-off in software stocks last month, when fears that autonomous AI agents could replace some traditional applications triggered a global market rout that erased nearly $1 trillion in value across the sector.

Why Narayan’s departure matters to investors

Morgan Stanley analysts said Narayen’s departure could deepen uncertainty among investors who are already closely watching how legacy software companies respond to the rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence.

“The loss of an iconic leader at a time of peak uncertainty around the future of software more broadly, and the positioning of Adobe specifically in this new GenAI world is bound to further investor uncertainty and anxiety around the shares,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Narayen, who joined Adobe in 1998 and became chief executive in 2007, helped transform the company into one of the world’s most prominent software firms, overseeing its shift from boxed software products to cloud-based subscriptions.

In a letter to employees, Narayen said he would remain involved with the company as chair of the board and work alongside lead independent director Frank Calderoni in the search for a successor.

“This is not a goodbye by any means, but a time for reflection,” he wrote.

Analysts at Jefferies said the leadership change may be appropriate given the scale of transformation underway in the software industry.

“Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen’s decision to stand down from his position was the right one for the company,” Brent Thill, an analyst at the firm, said.

Thill said that while he led a transition across the software industry in that time, the rise of AI will create large challenges for the sector.

“While we admire CEO Narayen as a living legend in [the] software industry, we agree it is time for a change given massive industry shift due to AI,” the analyst wrote.

Earnings exceed estimates but ARR growth comes slower

The leadership announcement came shortly after Adobe reported fiscal first-quarter results that largely exceeded Wall Street expectations, though the modest earnings beat did little to calm concerns about the company’s longer-term growth prospects.

For the quarter, Adobe reported profit of $1.89 billion, or $4.60 per share, compared with $1.81 billion, or $4.14 per share, a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings came in at $6.06 per share, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $5.87, according to FactSet.

Revenue rose 12% to $6.40 billion, topping analysts’ expectations of $6.28 billion, while subscription revenue increased 13%.

The company said its artificial intelligence initiatives were contributing to growth across its product portfolio.

Adobe’s AI-first annualised recurring revenue more than tripled from a year earlier, Narayen said, as customers increasingly adopt tools powered by machine learning and generative AI.

The company ended the quarter with annual recurring revenue of $26.06 billion, broadly in line with Wall Street expectations.

However, growth in that key metric slowed slightly to 10.9%, compared with 11.5% in the previous quarter, a development that analysts said investors are monitoring closely.

The slow growth showed that AI is not driving significant financial benefits yet.

“We continue to believe that ARR reacceleration remains the focus for investors to get more constructive,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Swanson said in a note to clients.

AI strategy at the centre of Adobe’s future

Adobe has positioned artificial intelligence at the centre of its long-term strategy as the company seeks to maintain its leadership in creative software.

The company has integrated third-party AI models into flagship products including Photoshop and Premiere Pro, while also developing its own generative AI platform, Firefly.

Narayen has said the company’s objective is to expand its customer base by embedding AI capabilities across its product suite and making creative tools more accessible to a broader audience.

“The next era of creativity is being written right now — shaped by AI, by new workflows and by entirely new forms of expression,” he said.

In December, Adobe said its AI features were helping it win additional business from enterprise customers as companies adopt new content creation and marketing tools.

Yet the company is facing growing competition from a wave of AI startups offering automated design tools that can generate images, videos and marketing materials with minimal user input.

Outlook remains closely watched

Investors are closely watching whether Adobe can translate its AI investments into sustained revenue growth.

For the second quarter, the company expects revenue between $6.43 billion and $6.48 billion and adjusted earnings per share between $5.80 and $5.85.

Analysts project revenue of about $6.43 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.68 per share.

Some analysts believe the company’s recent performance suggests it may be navigating the transition successfully.

Morgan Stanley said several indicators from the latest quarter suggest Adobe may be stabilising after a difficult period for software companies.

“After steering the Adobe ship through rough seas over the past several years, several data points from the most recent quarter suggest the captain may have brought this franchise into a safe harbor,” the bank said.

Still, Adobe’s shares have fallen about 23% this year and remain under pressure as investors assess whether the company can maintain its dominance in a rapidly evolving AI-driven software industry.

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US stock index futures edged higher in choppy trading on Friday as investors awaited key economic data on growth and inflation, while escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push oil prices higher and cloud the outlook for global markets.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 135 points, or about 0.29%, while S&P 500 futures gained roughly 0.32%. Nasdaq 100 futures also advanced around 0.33%.

Despite the modest gains in futures trading, Wall Street’s main indexes remained on track to end the week lower.

The S&P 500 is set for a weekly decline of about 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading toward a steeper fall of roughly 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 0.3% week to date.

Key inflation and growth data in focus

Investors were awaiting several closely watched economic reports due later in the day that could offer fresh insight into the strength of the US economy and the trajectory of inflation.

Data releases scheduled on Friday include January durable goods orders and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

The second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product is also due today.

Reports on job openings for January and the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for March are expected.

The Dow Jones consensus forecast expects headline PCE inflation to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to increase 0.4% from the prior month and 3.1% from a year earlier.

Oil surge and Middle East tensions add pressure

Market sentiment has also been weighed down by sharply rising oil prices amid a widening conflict in the Middle East.

Crude prices hovered near $100 a barrel as hostilities showed few signs of easing despite assurances from the Trump administration that the conflict could be resolved quickly.

Efforts to stabilize markets, including record emergency oil releases from the International Energy Agency and a US 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, have failed to significantly curb the surge in prices.

Economists warn that disruptions could extend beyond energy markets.

Private credit concerns and stock movers

Rising oil prices and growing inflation worries have also complicated expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Traders now anticipate only one 25-basis-point rate cut this year, according to LSEG data, compared with two expected before the conflict began on February 28.

The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week.

Meanwhile, stress in the private credit market has drawn increased scrutiny from investors.

Morgan Stanley halted redemptions at one of its private credit funds this week, following similar moves by BlackRock and Blue Owl in recent weeks.

JPMorgan also restricted lending to private credit players, while Blackstone reportedly faced a surge in redemption requests.

In corporate news, Adobe shares fell about 7% in premarket trading after longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen said he would step down once a successor is appointed.

Cybersecurity firm SentinelOne dropped 3.2% after forecasting quarterly profit below expectations.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms slipped around 1% after a report said the company postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model “Avocado” until at least May.

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US stock index futures moved lower on Thursday as a renewed surge in oil prices heightened inflation concerns and forced investors to reassess expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The decline in futures came after reports of further attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, which raised fears of escalating supply disruptions and prolonged geopolitical instability in the region.

Dow E-mini futures were down 316 points, or 0.67%, while S&P 500 E-minis fell 36.75 points, or 0.54%. Nasdaq 100 E-minis also dropped 121.75 points, or 0.49% in early trading.

Oil surge rattles markets and fuels inflation concerns

Oil prices climbed sharply following reports that two tankers were set ablaze in Iraqi waters after apparent Iranian strikes.

The attacks are part of a broader wave of disruptions targeting oil and transport facilities across the Middle East.

Brent crude briefly surged toward $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures traded higher by 5% as markets reacted to supply disruption risks.

Iran has warned that oil prices could climb even further, potentially reaching $200 per barrel.

The spike in energy prices comes despite efforts by policymakers to stabilize markets.

The United States said it would release 172 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of an international effort coordinated with the International Energy Agency.

The IEA earlier agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, marking the largest coordinated release in its history.

However, markets remain skeptical about whether these measures can offset supply disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict.

Airlines and travel stocks under pressure

Companies sensitive to energy prices were among the biggest losers in premarket trading.

S&P 500 airline stocks are on track for their biggest monthly losses in a year as higher fuel costs threaten profitability.

American Airlines fell 1.8% in premarket trading while Southwest Airlines plunged 2.53%.

Cruise operators Norwegian Cruise Line declined 1.8% and Royal Caribbean was down by more than 2%.

Energy companies, however, moved slightly higher as oil prices rose. Shares of Occidental Petroleum gained by 1.8% and EQT Corporation rose 0.6% in pre market.

Wall Street’s volatility gauge also rose as investors braced for further market turbulence.

The CBOE Volatility Index increased to 25.53.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the rate-sensitive Russell small-cap index fell more than 1%.

Rate cut expectations and policy risks shift

The surge in oil prices is complicating expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates.

Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the Fed’s next rate cut to September from its earlier projection of June.

Money market futures now indicate traders expect only one quarter-point rate cut by December, compared with two cuts previously priced in before the escalation of the conflict.

Investors are also monitoring a series of other developments affecting market sentiment.

Washington announced new trade investigations targeting industrial overcapacity and forced labor across 16 major trading partners, a move seen as an attempt to rebuild tariff pressure after the US Supreme Court struck down a key part of President Donald Trump’s tariff program.

At the same time, scrutiny is growing around the $2 trillion private credit industry after several credit issues emerged in recent months.

Morgan Stanley limited redemptions at one of its private credit funds, while JPMorgan reduced the value of some loans to private credit funds.

Shares of Blackstone fell 1.1% in premarket trading, while Blue Owl declined nearly 3%.

Not all companies moved lower. Bumble surged 25% after the dating app operator reported fourth-quarter revenue above analysts’ estimates.

Later in the day, investors will focus on weekly jobless claims data and comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.

Markets are also awaiting Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

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Shares of Bumble jumped sharply in premarket trading on Thursday after the dating app operator reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results and outlined an artificial intelligence-driven overhaul of its platform aimed at re-engaging younger users.

The company’s stock rose about 23% before the opening bell, as investors welcomed signs that Bumble’s turnaround efforts could begin stabilising its growth outlook after a difficult period for the online dating industry.

Chief Executive Whitney Wolfe Herd said the company is preparing to introduce Bumble 2.0, a redesigned version of the app that will incorporate new features intended to improve match quality and deepen user engagement.

The overhaul comes as online dating platforms face slowing growth and increasing complaints of “swiping fatigue” among younger users who are showing less enthusiasm for traditional swipe-based matchmaking.

Product revamp aims to revive engagement

Bumble’s planned upgrade represents one of its most significant product changes in years.

The redesigned app will introduce a chapter-based profile format designed to give users a richer and more detailed way to present themselves beyond the familiar swipe interface.

Executives said the company may also experiment with a no-swipe experience in some markets while maintaining the swipe format in others.

The strategy reflects a broader shift across the online dating industry, where platforms are attempting to refresh their products to maintain engagement in a more competitive and mature market.

AI tools take centre stage in dating apps

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a key battleground in the online dating industry as companies look for ways to improve matchmaking and user retention.

Bumble said it is developing an AI-powered dating assistant that will initially be tested within the app.

The feature is designed to learn users’ preferences through private conversations and recommend more compatible matches.

The tool, internally referred to as “Bee,” forms part of the company’s broader plan to integrate AI into several aspects of the user experience.

Rival platforms are also accelerating product innovation.

Match Group, which owns Tinder and Hinge, reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue last month as early results from its own product initiatives began to emerge.

Industry executives say new AI tools could help address declining engagement by improving match quality and reducing the time users spend endlessly swiping through profiles.

Revenue beats estimates despite user decline

Bumble reported fourth-quarter revenue of $224.2 million, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $221.3 million.

Average revenue per paying user rose 7.9% to $22.20.

However, the company continues to face challenges as the number of paying users declines.

For the current quarter, Bumble forecast revenue of between $209 million and $213 million, compared with $247.1 million in the same period a year earlier.

The company expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $76 million to $80 million.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect revenue of about $211 million and adjusted EBITDA of $57.7 million.

Executives said some key operating metrics are beginning to show improvement as the company focuses on strengthening its user base rather than simply expanding it.

Reset strategy weighs on short-term growth

Over the past year, Bumble has focused on removing fake accounts, low-intent users and other problematic profiles in an effort to improve the overall quality of interactions on the platform.

While the effort has improved user engagement and retention trends, it has also weighed on the company’s financial performance.

Revenue declined 9.9% last year as the number of paying users fell 12%, reflecting the impact of the clean-up initiative.

“We knew that doing this the right way would create near-term pressure, and it did,” Wolfe Herd told analysts.

“The choices we made were intentional.”

Executives said the company’s member base has now been reset and the next phase of its strategy will centre on accelerating product innovation.

Chief Financial Officer Kevin Cook said some of the recent pressure on revenue could begin easing as improvements in retention and higher revenue per paying user start feeding through into financial results.

Valuation draws cautious analyst optimism

Despite Thursday’s rally, Bumble’s shares remain under pressure.

The stock has fallen more than 20% so far this year and currently trades at a significant discount to its larger rival, Match Group.

Bumble shares trade at roughly 2.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, compared with about 7.5 times for Match Group.

With a market capitalisation of roughly $428 million and shares hovering near their 52-week low, some analysts believe the company may be undervalued if its turnaround efforts gain traction.

Analysts at JP Morgan said Bumble’s restructuring efforts appear to be progressing faster than expected, prompting the bank to upgrade the stock to a neutral rating from underweight.

“Bumble still has a long road ahead to get back to sustainable revenue growth, but we no longer think an underweight rating is appropriate with leading indicators stabilising,” the analysts said, adding that the launch of Bumble 2.0 in the second quarter could act as a catalyst.

Wells Fargo, however, maintained an equal-weight rating while lowering its price target to $5 from $5.50, citing continued uncertainty around revenue growth.

The bank said stronger recent earnings were partly driven by lower marketing spending and alternative payment methods, while future growth could depend on successful product launches and increased marketing investment in the coming years.

Institutional ownership of Bumble remains high at more than 100%, suggesting that large investors continue to maintain significant exposure to the stock even as the company works through its turnaround strategy.

Executives said the coming year will be crucial as Bumble seeks to rebuild growth momentum while adapting its platform to changing user behaviour in the evolving online dating market.

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CoreWeave stock price remains in a technical bear market after falling from a record high of $186 in June last year to the current $81.

This retreat may continue in the near term after forming the highly bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.

CoreWeave stock price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the CRWV stock price has crashed since last year. It has dropped from a high of $186 in June to the current $81.

The stock could be at risk of more downside this year. First, the stock has formed a descending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal trendline and a descending trendline. 

The horizontal line connects the lowest levels in November and December last year and March this year.

Its descending trendline connects the highest swings in June and October last year and January this year.

CoreWeave has also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is made up of a head, two shoulders, and a neckline. It sits slightly above the neckline at $68.90.

The stock has remained below the Supertrend indicator and the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the stock will likely resume the downward trend in the near term.

This view will be confirmed if it drops below the key support level at $69.

A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at $50.

The bearish outlook will become invalid if it moves above the descending trendline, which is the upper side of the descending triangle pattern.

CRWV stock chart | Source: TradingView 

CoreWeave business is doing well, but risks remain 

CoreWeave and other companies in the AI industry are doing well as demand for data continues rising. This growth is happening as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related data surges.

Most companies, especially large players like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and Meta Platforms, have all pledged to spend over $600 billion in capital expenditure this year.

Some of these companies are using a hybrid model, which involves buying their own data centers and leasing space from neocloud companies like CoreWeave, IREN, TeraWulf, and Nebius.

The most recent financial results showed that the company’s business was doing well, which explains why NVIDIA recently invested an additional $2 billion in the company earlier this year. 

CoreWeave’s revenue jumped to $1.57 billion in the first quarter, a big increase from $747 million in the same period last year.

Its 12-month revenue jumped to $5.13 billion from $1.9 billion a year earlier.

The revenue jumped after the company reached deals with Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity, and Meta Platforms.

Wall Street analysts believe that CoreWeave’s business will continue doing well.

The average estimate is that its revenue will grow by 100% this quarter to $1.97 billion, followed by a 122% increase in the second quarter to $2.7 billion.

Consequently, its annual revenue is expected to jump by 142% to $12.4 billion, followed by $23 billion next year.

CoreWeave’s challenge is that its business is capital-intensive as the cost of chips and memory devices soar.

It spent $14.9 billion in capital expenditure last year, and the management expects to spend between $30 billion and $35 billion this year. 

The other risk is that the company’s business is getting highly competitive, with most Bitcoin mining companies pivoting to the industry.

This includes companies like IREN, TeraWulf, and Riot Platforms.

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