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European stock markets rallied on Monday, with the regional Stoxx 600 index climbing to a four-month high, as investors cheered the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

The deal, which averts the threat of much steeper tariffs, has ignited a broad-based rally, with the autos sector leading the charge.

A transatlantic truce: deal details and market reaction

The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.8% in early trading, with other major regional bourses also firmly in positive territory. The UK’s FTSE 100 was up 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 was higher by 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX was rising 0.7%.

The positive momentum is a direct reaction to the trade pact announced on Sunday by US President Donald Trump, following a pivotal meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The agreement will see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its exports to the US, including automobiles. This is a significant de-escalation from the 30% tariffs that President Trump had previously threatened to impose.

While the European leader stated that the 15% rate would be all-inclusive, President Trump later added that it did not include pharmaceuticals and metals, suggesting some details are still being clarified.

News of the deal had a more limited impact in currency markets, where the US dollar edged slightly higher on Monday. Bond yields in both the US and Europe slid.

Automakers lead the charge: a ‘great for cars’ deal

European carmakers, which have been particularly vulnerable to the threat of US tariffs, jumped on Monday morning. President Trump, in his announcement, specifically stated that the trade agreement will be “great for cars.”

The Stoxx Europe autos index led the gains in early morning deals, surging more than 1.5%.

Individual auto stocks saw strong performance: French car parts supplier Valeo was last seen up 5%.

Jeep maker Stellantis NV gained 3.1%, while Volkswagen AG was up 2.2%, Mercedes-Benz Group AG rose 1.8%, and Porsche AG jumped 3.5%.

The Stoxx 600 autos sector had been little changed for the year as of Friday, significantly missing out on Europe’s broader market rally, which suggests there is now room for this group to catch up.

The relief was also felt among other trade-sensitive sectors. Luxury goods makers LVMH and Kering SA added 0.90% and 0.34%, respectively.

Drinks makers, including Diageo Plc and Pernod Ricard SA, also gained. Shipping stocks, such as A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG, were also in focus, given the freight industry’s high sensitivity to tariffs.

A turning point for European markets?

This rally marks a potential turning point for European stocks, which have been largely range-bound since May due to the persistent jitters around the outlook for global trade.

A UBS Group AG basket of stocks that are particularly sensitive to tariffs had underperformed this year, indicating that there is significant potential for this group to now catch up to the broader regional benchmark.

The positive sentiment is also being felt across the Atlantic.

US equity futures rose early on Monday as Wall Street prepared for an especially busy week. Investors are looking ahead to earnings reports from several major tech companies, a key Federal Reserve meeting, President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline for other countries, and the release of key inflation data.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 171 points, or 0.38%. S&P 500 futures were higher by 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.55%.

Wall Street is also coming off a winning week, which was fueled by strong corporate earnings and recent trade deals struck by the U.S. with other trading partners, including Japan and Indonesia.

The agreement with the EU now adds to this growing sense of a de-escalation in global trade tensions.

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The United States and the European Union announced on Sunday a broad framework for a new trade agreement aimed at defusing tensions between the two economic giants and preventing what could have become a damaging transatlantic trade war.

The deal imposes a uniform 15% tariff on most goods exported from the EU to the United States, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals.

Though the rate is higher than the 10% cap the European bloc had hoped for, it is significantly lower than the 30% tariffs that President Donald Trump had previously threatened.

Flanked by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Trump said the agreement would usher in a new era of “balanced, tough, and fair trade” between the two long-standing allies.

“We made it,” he said, calling the outcome “the biggest of all the deals.”

EU to purchase $750 bn worth of American energy, increase investment in the US

Central to the agreement are substantial pledges from the European Union on energy and investment.

Von der Leyen confirmed that the bloc would purchase $750 billion worth of American energy over the next three years.

Trump also announced that EU member states had agreed to increase their total investment in the US economy by over $600 billion.

This investment, officials said, would span key industries, including automotive manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and defense.

The EU has also committed to purchasing an unspecified amount of American military equipment.

“It’s a good deal, it’s a huge deal,” von der Leyen said, calling the negotiations “tough” but ultimately fruitful.

Some relief was offered on select goods.

Both sides agreed to reduce tariffs to zero on aircraft, aircraft parts, some agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, generic medicines, and certain chemicals—signaling a degree of cooperation that had been lacking in recent years.

Steel and pharmaceuticals excluded from the deal

Despite these developments, not all sectors emerged unscathed.

One conspicuous exclusion from the deal is the steep 50% tariff the Trump administration had earlier imposed globally on steel and aluminum imports.

While von der Leyen hinted that these may be addressed in follow-up negotiations, no immediate relief was offered.

Pharmaceuticals—Europe’s most significant export category to the United States—also remain outside the current agreement and will still be subject to a 15% tariff.

Von der Leyen acknowledged that the pharmaceutical issue had been “placed on a separate sheet of paper,” indicating that further negotiations are expected.

A senior U.S. official clarified that pharmaceutical and semiconductor exports from Europe would continue to face the 15% tariff rate regardless of potential global tariff policies under review by the Trump administration.

Those measures, which could be announced in the coming weeks, are part of a broader strategy to recalibrate US trade policy across critical supply chains.

Mixed reactions from Europe highlight unease

Reactions across the European continent were mixed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the accord, praising it as a means of avoiding “an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations.”

He noted, however, that deeper tariff reductions would have been preferable.

“We were able to preserve our core interests,” Merz said, while expressing disappointment over the limited scope of concessions.

Business groups were more critical. Wolfgang Niedermark of the Federation of German Industries warned that even the 15% rate would have “immense negative effects” on Germany’s export-driven manufacturing sector.

In France, concerns were more pointed.

“The agreement negotiated by the European Commission with the United States will bring temporary stability to economic actors threatened by the escalation of American tariffs, but it is unbalanced,” said French European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Industry Minister Marc Ferracci echoed the sentiment, adding that more detailed discussions—potentially stretching over weeks or even months—would be needed before a binding legal agreement could be finalized.

A temporary shield against global economic volatility

Though the announced deal appears to stave off immediate retaliation and avoids an all-out tariff war, trade experts cautioned against celebrating too early.

Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group noted that several critical areas remain ambiguous.

“If there aren’t further exemptions to be negotiated to that 15%, I think it’s a far more suboptimal deal than the member states were hoping to achieve,” he said.

The agreement does mirror recent trade pacts with other US partners.

The 15% rate is identical to what was agreed upon with Japan last week and is more favourable than the 19 to 20% tariffs recently slapped on Southeast Asian nations.

However, it remains higher than the 10% rate applied to the UK.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING, offered cautious optimism.

“At face value, today’s agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months,” he said.

“An escalation of the U.S.-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy. This risk seems to have been avoided.”

For now, though, leaders on both sides were keen to signal progress.

“This deal enables trade, it rebalances our relationship,” von der Leyen said. Whether it holds under pressure remains to be seen.

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Alibaba has announced its entry into the AI-powered wearables market with the launch of Quark AI Glasses, set for release in China by the end of 2025.

The glasses are powered by the company’s proprietary Qwen large language model and its AI assistant, Quark.

With this, the Hangzhou-headquartered e-commerce giant becomes the latest Chinese tech firm to move into hardware, marking a shift in strategy aimed at expanding the use of its AI services beyond mobile apps.

The launch positions Alibaba to compete directly with both domestic and international players in the next phase of consumer computing.

Alibaba’s AI Glasses offer integrated ecosystem functionality

The Quark AI Glasses will support a range of functions, including hands-free calling, music streaming, real-time language translation, and meeting transcription.

Equipped with a built-in camera, the glasses will also allow users to access Alibaba’s ecosystem of services.

Users will be able to navigate using Alibaba’s mapping services, make payments via its Ant Group affiliate’s Alipay platform, and shop directly on its flagship e-commerce site, Taobao.

This integration underlines Alibaba’s attempt to build an all-in-one wearable platform, mirroring efforts seen from Meta and Xiaomi.

While the device is aimed at Chinese consumers initially, its potential expansion could impact the global wearables market. No pricing or technical specifications have been disclosed yet.

AI wearables market heats up in China

Alibaba’s smart glasses will enter a growing field already populated by companies like Meta and Xiaomi.

Earlier this year, Xiaomi released its pair of AI glasses, and Meta has partnered with Ray-Ban to develop smart glasses targeting Western markets.

With the launch of Quark AI Glasses, Alibaba is not only taking on its Chinese competitors but is also positioning itself against global firms in the AI wearable category.

The company’s use of its in-house Qwen model and Quark assistant reflects a push to offer capabilities that match or rival those of OpenAI and other Western developers.

Alibaba is among the leaders in China’s AI sector, having invested heavily in large language models and generative AI tools.

By entering the hardware segment, the firm appears to be following a trend of AI companies extending their product ecosystem to include physical devices, thereby increasing user retention and data integration.

Quark app gains a new distribution channel through hardware

Until now, Quark has been available as a standalone app in China. By embedding it into wearable hardware, Alibaba is aiming to broaden the reach and use cases of its AI assistant.

The strategy reflects a broader industry trend where AI capabilities are being embedded directly into consumer devices, enhancing their utility and stickiness.

Quark AI Glasses could serve as a new access point for users to interact with Alibaba’s services on the go, without relying on smartphones.

As AI adoption accelerates across Asia, wearables like smart glasses are expected to become key interfaces for accessing virtual assistants, AI-driven services, and immersive experiences.

Alibaba’s entry into this space adds another layer to the ongoing hardware race in the AI age.

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Most mines have recovered from loss-making positions due to the platinum price rally in the first half of 2025, but the industry is still a long way from adding new production, Valterra Platinum CEO Craig Miller said on Monday.

“About 90% of the industry is now making money or just breaking even, versus 40% at the end of last year,” Miller told Reuters in an interview.

Drastic measures

The global platinum market has been significantly impacted by the strategic decisions of South African miners, who collectively contribute over 70% of the world’s supply. 

In response to a dramatic collapse in metal prices over the past two years, these miners were compelled to undertake drastic measures, including cutting down on unprofitable production. 

This period was marked by dire warnings from industry experts and analysts, who cautioned that the platinum industry was facing a “terminal decline.” 

The price slump, driven by a combination of factors such as decreased demand from the automotive sector (a major consumer of platinum in catalytic converters) and an oversupply in the market, rendered many mining operations economically unviable. 

This forced reduction in output, while painful in the short term, was a necessary step for the survival of the industry, aiming to rebalance supply and demand and ultimately stabilise prices. 

The implications of these production cuts extend beyond South Africa, affecting the global supply chain and potentially influencing the future trajectory of platinum prices and investment.

Platinum prices

During the second quarter of this year, the price of the metal, a key component in catalytic converters for vehicle emissions, saw a 36% increase. 

This surge was driven by several factors: a rise in Chinese imports, significant flows into NYMEX exchange stocks due to potential US import tariffs, and a concurrent decline in South African output.

At the time of writing, the platinum price on COMEX was at $1,446.50 an ounce, up 1.7% from the previous close.

Commerzbank AG expects platinum prices to average $1,350 an ounce by the end of 2025 compared to $1,250 an ounce projected earlier.

Prices are not high enough

However, Miller further stated that platinum prices remain too low for the industry to contemplate increasing production.

Miller said:

You need to see another 50% increase in prices in order to incentivise that new production to come to market. So we still think there’s some way to go.

Valterra, previously known as Anglo American Platinum, announced an 81% decline in half-year profit.

This slump was attributed to decreased output and expenses related to its demerger from the Anglo American group.

Headline earnings for the six months ending June 30 fell to 1.2 billion rand ($67.62 million) from 6.5 billion rand the previous year.

Valterra announced an interim dividend of 2 rand per share, which represents a 79% decrease from the previous year’s payout.

The world’s largest PGM producer, which demerged in June, is now separately listed in Johannesburg and London.

This move comes as global mining giant Anglo restructures its business to prioritise copper.

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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been a rocky ride lately, shedding nearly 13% over the past two months amid disappointing delivery numbers and growing concerns over its automotive business at large.

In a recent CNBC interview, Victoria Greene – the chief investment officer of G Squared Private Wealth – didn’t mince words, calling TSLA’s car business a “dumpster fire.”

Yet, she stopped short of recommending a sell, citing the company’s tech ambitions as a reason to hold.

Greene’s nuanced take on Tesla stock reflects the growing divide between its struggling auto business and its promising future in AI and robotics.

Why is Tesla stock a dumpster fire?

Victoria Greene’s frustration with TSLA’s auto division stems from a string of weak deliveries and strategic missteps.

Tesla’s decision to delay the release of its cheaper Model 3 until after the $7,500 EV tax credit expires raised eyebrows, suggesting a reactive rather than proactive sales strategy.

Meanwhile, heightened competition in Europe and Asia is squeezing the EV maker’s market share, and the tone of the recent earnings call did little to reassure investors.

According to the expert, the numbers didn’t disappoint investors as much as Elon Musk’s comment that “we could have a few rough quarters.”

The messaging and outlook were troubling – especially for those banking on near-term growth in TSLA shares, she added.

Why do TSLA shares remain attractive as a tech holding?

Despite the company’s automotive woes, Greene remains bullish on Tesla’s tech potential.

On “The Exchange”, she highlighted the automaker’s advancements in full self-driving, robotics, and artificial intelligence as key reasons to hold TSLA stock.

Victoria Greene remains constructive on Tesla shares as its tech narrative remains intact – the long-term vision of robotaxis and autonomous systems continues to attract investors.

Additionally, Musk’s track record of eventually delivering on ambitious promises adds credibility to the firm’s outlook.

If political distractions continue to fade, the G Squared’s chief investment officer said investors may shift focus from lagging car sales to Tesla’s disruptive tech pipeline, which could drive future valuation.

Should you invest in Tesla Inc today?

Greene’s verdict? Hold, don’t fold – but also don’t double down on Tesla stock at current levels.

While she acknowledges the risks tied to the company’s automotive unit, especially in international markets, she sees enough promise in the tech side to justify staying invested.

However, Victoria Greene cautions against aggressive buying, given Musk’s warning of potentially rough quarters ahead.

All in all, for investors, the key is to recognise TSLA as a hybrid play – part carmaker, part tech innovator.

Those with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility may find value in holding, but new entrants should tread carefully until the auto narrative stabilises.

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Dow futures rose by as much as 80 points early Monday morning, hinting at a strong start for Wall Street in what’s shaping up to be a busy and potentially game-changing week.

Investors are gearing up for several major events, including a key Federal Reserve policy decision, earnings reports from big-name tech companies, and a reactions to US-EU trade deal.

The market sentiment remained upbeat, helped by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh highs, and some growing confidence around global trade talks.

But no one’s getting too comfortable just yet with the Fed meeting coming up and big tech earnings on deck, there’s still plenty that could rattle the markets.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. One of the big headlines this morning is that the US and the EU have finally reached a preliminary trade deal.

They’ve agreed on a flat 15% tariff on each other’s goods, not exactly a game-changer, but it brings some clarity after months of back-and-forth.

That bit of certainty seems to be going over well with investors, as markets in both the US and Europe moved higher on the news.

2. Investors are gearing up for a packed week of earnings, with the spotlight firmly on the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech heavyweights like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet.

So far, the second-quarter earnings season has been pretty solid, with more than 80% of companies beating expectations.

That’s definitely helped keep the market rally going.

But with the biggest names reporting this week, things could swing quickly; a strong showing could push stocks even higher, while any surprises or disappointments might rattle investor confidence.

3. The Fed kicks off a closely watched policy meeting this week, and while almost no one expects a rate change this time around, that’s not where the real focus is.

What investors really care about is the tone, any hint about when rate cuts might actually happen, or how the Fed is reading the current mix of sticky inflation, global tariffs, and surprisingly resilient economic data.

Even subtle shifts in language could move the markets, so expect Wall Street to hang on every word from Powell and company.

4. Strong corporate earnings last week, along with a string of US-brokered trade deals including agreements with Japan and several Southeast Asian countries, helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs.

But the rally isn’t without its risks. Concerns are still swirling around potential tariff shifts, pressure on specific sectors like semiconductors and EVs, and the usual dose of geopolitical uncertainty.

5. Beyond earnings and the Fed meeting, investors are also keeping a close eye on a couple of key US economic reports due this week, namely the PCE inflation numbers and the latest non-farm payrolls data.

Both will offer fresh insight into how inflation and the labor market are holding up amid shifting tariffs and broader global uncertainty.

Depending on how those numbers come in, they could play a big role in shaping expectations around the Fed’s next move.

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Huawei has overtaken rivals to become the leading smartphone vendor in China once again, according to data from Canalys.

The company shipped 12.2 million units in the second quarter of 2025, marking a 15% increase year on year and reclaiming an 18% market share.

Apple, after a period of sluggish performance, climbed back to growth in China with 10.1 million shipments, a 4% increase over the same period in 2024.

The figures reflect rising competition in one of the world’s most valuable smartphone markets, just days ahead of Apple’s quarterly earnings release.

Huawei’s aggressive product rollout and continued development of HarmonyOS appear to be shifting the dynamics in a market where Apple once held the upper hand.

Huawei’s rebound follows 2023 relaunch amid US sanctions

Huawei’s resurgence comes after its smartphone division was severely impacted by US sanctions in recent years.

By the end of 2023, however, the Chinese tech giant had re-entered the market with multiple new models that quickly gained traction.

The June 2025 quarter marks Huawei’s first return to the number-one spot since Q1 2024.

Part of Huawei’s strategy included strengthening its in-house HarmonyOS, now in its fifth iteration, which the company is rolling out across smartphones and other devices.

This move is designed to expand its ecosystem and reduce reliance on Android, with system compatibility and user experience becoming key focus areas.

Apple’s growth aided by pricing strategy and trade-in offers

Apple’s 10.1 million unit shipments placed it fifth in China’s vendor rankings for the quarter.

While it remains behind local competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi, the Cupertino firm has recorded its first quarter of growth in China since Q4 2023.

The recovery is linked to Apple’s strategic price adjustments for its iPhone 16 series.

E-commerce partners in China offered discounts, and Apple increased trade-in values for older iPhone models, all contributing to the uptick in shipments.

The Canalys report aligns with recent findings from Counterpoint Research, which also noted Apple’s Q2 growth in the country.

With China being Apple’s third-largest market, any sign of stabilisation is likely to ease investor concerns ahead of its earnings call.

Apple stock down 14.5% YTD amid China concerns

Despite the growth in China, Apple shares have dropped approximately 14.5% so far in 2025.

The decline has been partly driven by concerns over weak demand in China and mounting geopolitical pressure.

US President Donald Trump recently warned Apple of possible tariffs and urged the company to shift iPhone manufacturing to the United States—an impractical proposition, according to many analysts.

These tensions have further complicated Apple’s supply chain outlook, even as it attempts to stabilise performance in Asia.

China smartphone market sees rising local competition

The broader Chinese smartphone market is seeing increased activity from domestic brands, especially Huawei and Xiaomi.

These companies are rolling out flagship models with enhanced AI features, competitive pricing, and locally developed operating systems.

Huawei’s HarmonyOS 5 is at the centre of this trend, helping the firm draw users into its independent software ecosystem.

As it scales this platform across devices, Huawei aims to strengthen its user retention and reduce its dependency on foreign technologies.

Apple’s path forward in China will likely depend on balancing its premium brand position with localised strategies.

As Huawei continues its expansion, the competition is expected to intensify through the rest of 2025.

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Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the widely-read Rich Dad Poor Dad, has raised alarm over what he claims could be a financial collapse rivalling the 1929 Great Depression.

In a series of tweets this week, he compared the current US economic trajectory to the lead-up to that infamous crash.

Citing unsustainable national debt and excessive money printing, Kiyosaki argues that the system is at breaking point.

His recommendation? Move away from traditional assets like stocks and retirement accounts, and instead consider gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

US debt and money printing raise systemic concerns

According to Kiyosaki, the root cause of the looming danger lies in America’s expanding fiscal imbalance.

He called the US “the world’s biggest debtor nation in history,” suggesting that continuous reliance on money printing to pay government obligations is accelerating systemic risks.

As of July 2025, the US national debt stands at over $35.8 trillion, increasing at a rate of roughly $1 trillion every 100 days.

Kiyosaki warned that such debt levels are unsustainable and that the broader public remains unaware of the implications.

He specifically cautioned those dependent on stock-heavy retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs, pointing out their vulnerability in a potential downturn.

Drawing parallels to the 1929 crash that wiped out millions of investors, he warned that history could repeat itself.

Institutional shifts underline bearish sentiment

Kiyosaki highlighted recent moves by veteran investors to support his outlook.

In particular, he pointed to Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers, both of whom have reportedly trimmed their equity and bond holdings in favour of more defensive positions.

According to data from Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F filing, Buffett has increased his cash holdings and reduced exposure to consumer and financial stocks.

Kiyosaki claimed that such decisions from prominent figures signal a broader retreat from traditional markets.

He argued that the so-called “smart money” is preparing for potential volatility, and everyday investors should take notice.

For his part, he is prioritising gold, silver, and Bitcoin as hedges against what he sees as impending market instability.

Bitcoin ETFs under fire for lacking direct ownership

While Bitcoin ETFs have gained traction globally, especially after the US approved several spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, Kiyosaki remains sceptical.

In a separate tweet, he compared ETFs to having “a picture of a gun” instead of owning a real one.

He argued that direct ownership of assets like physical gold, silver, or self-custodied Bitcoin is a better safeguard during economic crises.

This viewpoint stands in contrast to recent institutional enthusiasm around digital asset ETFs, which have attracted billions of dollars in inflows since January.

Yet Kiyosaki maintains that paper-based exposure may be inadequate if the financial infrastructure itself falters.

Long-term focus on tangible value

Kiyosaki’s warnings come at a time when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have seen significant gains, driven by AI stocks and better-than-expected corporate earnings.

However, he is urging investors to shift focus from short-term profits to long-term asset preservation.

According to him, if the system breaks down, “real” assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin will retain value, while stock portfolios could be decimated.

Although his predictions have sparked debate, especially among analysts who view his tone as overly dramatic, Kiyosaki’s message is gaining traction among retail investors concerned about inflation, debt ceilings, and macroeconomic volatility.

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After months of intensive, often grueling, negotiations and shuttle diplomacy, the fate of a critical trade agreement between the European Union and the United States now rests squarely in the hands of one man: President Donald Trump.

The high-stakes endgame is set to unfold in Scotland, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with the US president on Sunday in a last-ditch effort to seal a deal.

A race against the clock to avert a tariff storm

The two sides are in a desperate race against the clock. If no agreement is reached, a punishing 30% tariff on the bloc’s exports to the US is scheduled to automatically kick in on Friday.

“Intensive negotiations at technical and political have been ongoing,” said Paula Pinho, von der Leyen’s spokesperson.

Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.

EU officials have repeatedly cautioned that, despite the detailed work of their negotiators, a final deal ultimately hinges on President Trump’s personal approval, making the outcome notoriously difficult to predict.

The US president’s recent negotiations with Japan serve as a cautionary tale; he appeared to change certain final terms on the fly just before a deal was eventually agreed upon earlier this week.

The anatomy of a potential deal: 15% tariffs and key exemptions

Over the past week, the EU and the US. have been zeroing in on the framework of a potential agreement.

According to a previous Bloomberg report, this would likely see the EU face a baseline 15% tariff on most of its trade with the US.

However, the EU is pushing hard for limited but crucial exemptions for key sectors, including aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several types of spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs.

Under the arrangements being discussed, steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota system, but any imports above that threshold would face a much higher tariff of 50%.

This is on top of the universal levy President Trump has threatened, as well as the existing 25% levy on cars and auto parts and the 50% duty on steel and aluminum.

He has also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper.

The EU is expecting the same 15% ceiling to apply to some of these sectors that could be targeted in the future, including pharmaceuticals, but this remains a key sticking point where President Trump’s final decision will be crucial, according to people familiar with the matter.

‘A 50-50 chance’: Trump’s take on the high-stakes game

President Trump himself has maintained an air of suspense about the negotiations.

“We’ll see if we make a deal,” he said as he arrived in Scotland on Friday. “Ursula will be here, highly respected woman.

So we look forward to that.” He reiterated his belief that there’s “a 50-50 chance” of a deal with the EU, stating there were still sticking points on “maybe 20 different things” that he did not want to detail publicly.

However, he also acknowledged the significance of a potential agreement, stating, “That would be actually the biggest deal of them all if we make it.” Before leaving Washington, he had given similar odds but also suggested the EU had a “pretty good chance” of reaching an agreement.

If a deal is struck, it is likely to take the form of a short joint statement, which would then need to be approved by the EU’s member states.

This statement would be seen as a crucial stepping stone toward more detailed and comprehensive talks in the future.

Any agreement would also likely cover non-tariff barriers, cooperation on economic security matters, and strategic purchases by the EU in sectors such as energy and artificial intelligence chips.

Europe’s Plan B: a powerful retaliation arsenal

Because of the ongoing uncertainty and the unpredictability of the negotiations, the EU has, in parallel, been sketching out a powerful set of countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario.

If talks collapse and President Trump carries through with his threat to impose the 30% tariff rate on most of the bloc’s exports after August 1, the EU is prepared to quickly retaliate. It would hit American exports with up to 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods.

This list is strategically designed to hit politically sensitive US states and includes iconic products such as Boeing Co. aircraft, U.S.-made cars, and bourbon whiskey. The package also includes some export restrictions on scrap metals.

Beyond immediate tariffs, in a no-deal scenario, the bloc is also prepared to activate its anti-coercion instrument.

This is a potent trade tool that would eventually allow the EU to target other areas, such as US access to European markets, services, and restrictions on public contracts, provided a majority of member states back its use.

While President Trump did not explicitly link the trade negotiations to other matters on Friday, he did suggest that he planned to raise his concerns over migration flows in Europe.

“You got to stop this horrible invasion that’s happening to Europe, many countries in Europe,” Trump said, adding that he believed “this immigration is killing Europe.”

This adds another unpredictable element to what are already incredibly high-stakes discussions.

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Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, stated on Saturday that the $550 billion investment package recently announced in Japan under a tariff deal with the United States could be utilised to help finance semiconductor plants in the US built by Taiwanese companies.

The statement could thus be taken as indicating that Japan is striving toward a goal, willing to spend aggressively to maintain its place in the global chip supply chain, even if it involves subsidizing out-of-country (in this case, non-Japan) enterprises.

This week’s agreement on the package is part of a larger deal under which Japan is granted reduced tariffs on its exports to the US.

In exchange, Japan will pour $550 billion in investments in the direction of the US, but the specific details of the initiative are still mostly undefined.

“Japan, the United States, and like-minded countries are working together to build supply chains in sectors critical to economic security,” Akazawa told NHK.

Taiwan chipmakers eligible for support

Akazawa highlighted that the financing will not be limited to projects by US or Japanese companies.

He cited an example of a Taiwanese chipmaker operating in the United States that uses Japanese components or tailors its production to meet Japanese market demands. “That’s fine, too,” he responded, without naming a specific company.

The comment appears to be about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a leading participant in advanced chip manufacturing.

The United States relies heavily on TSMC, which raises concerns about supply chain stability given Taiwan’s proximity to China.

TSMC has already announced a significant expansion in the United States, including a $100 billion promise made at the White House in March to bolster the $65 billion previously pledged for three new factories in Arizona.

One of these facilities is currently active.

New legal framework enables foreign financing

The investments will be channelled by two state-backed institutions, namely the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) as well as Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI). A revision to domestic law recently enabled JBIC to fund foreign firms considered vital to Japan’s supply chains.

Akazawa said that just 1 to 2 per cent of the package will go towards equity investment. Most of the $550 billion will be allocated in the form of loans and guarantees.

Profit share is viewed as secondary to tariff relief

When queried about a White House statement claiming that the US would keep 90% of the earnings from the investment package, Akazawa explained that this only refers to returns from the limited equity part.

While Japan initially tried to collect 50% of the returns, Akazawa argued that the sacrifice was a minor price to pay for the larger economic benefits.

He pointed out that the agreement will save Japan around 10 trillion yen (approximately $67.72 billion) in tariff charges, which will more than balance the loss of investment return share.

He stated that Japan intends to implement the entire $550 billion investment package during the current term of US President Donald Trump.

At 147.66 yen to the dollar, the funding’s size and speed highlight Japan’s strategic focus on long-term supply chain resilience—particularly in the semiconductor industry, where geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global priorities.

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