Tonight’s digest tracks the accelerating use of trade and tariffs as geopolitical leverage, from Trump’s renewed pressure campaign over Greenland to Canada’s landmark trade reset with China.
In the Americas, Washington’s stance on Venezuela sharpens as Trump embraces Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, prioritizing energy access and stability over democratic restoration.
Meanwhile, markets found a rare bright spot in healthcare, with Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy posting strong early prescription momentum, signaling a potential turnaround in the weight-loss race.
Trump threatens tariffs for Greenland
Trump weaponized tariffs on Friday to coerce Greenland’s acquisition, threatening trade penalties on countries refusing to support his takeover bid.
Speaking at a White House healthcare roundtable, the president invoked national security, claiming Russia and China threaten the Danish territory, already NATO-protected.
The tariff threat mirrors his pharmaceutical pricing strategy, signaling willingness to weaponize trade globally.
Jeff Landry, Trump’s special envoy, insisted a deal “should and will be made,” planning a March visit despite categorical rejections from Copenhagen and Nuuk.
A bipartisan US congressional delegation countered with a show of solidarity, while Denmark bolstered its military presence.
Polls show that 83% of Americans oppose the annexation of Greenland; 80% reject military action.
Yet Trump doubled down, framing the mineral-rich Arctic territory as existential for American dominance, positioning commercial coercion as standard statecraft in his second term.
Oral Wegovy off to a strong start
Novo Nordisk shares surged over 5% Friday on early prescription wins for its oral Wegovy pill, marking a crucial rebound for the beleaguered Danish pharma giant.
IQVIA data showed 3,071 prescriptions filled in the pill’s first week post-January 5 launch, already eclipsing rival Eli Lilly’s initial Zepbound injection uptake.
Analysts at TD Cowen and Leerink Partners called the performance “solid,” noting that Symphony data reported 4,290 scripts for the week ending January 9, predominantly initial dosages.
The pill’s advantage: comparable efficacy to injections (16.6% average weight loss versus Lilly’s 12.4%) without injectable needle aversion.
However, enthusiasm carries warnings; the data is preliminary, and Lilly’s oral forglipron looms for 2026 approval.
Trump backs Venezuela’s Rodríguez
Venezuela’s competing power brokers played diplomatic chess with Trump this week, each seeking legitimacy.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Acting President Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas on Thursday to signal the US’s willingness for “improved collaboration,” discussing intelligence sharing and preventing drug trafficking.
Simultaneously, opposition leader María Corina Machado presented Trump with her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal at the White House, a symbolic gesture hoping to woo the unpredictable president.
Yet Trump sided decisively with Rodríguez, calling her “terrific” while dismissing Machado as lacking domestic support despite her party winning Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election.
Rodríguez released five American prisoners and pledged oil cooperation, cementing Trump’s preference: geopolitical stability and energy access over democratic restoration.
Carney secures China trade reset
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney clinched a historic trade reset with Beijing on Friday, describing the deal as seizing “historic gains” for both nations.
The first Canadian PM to visit China since 2017, Carney negotiated tariff relief worth roughly $3 billion in export orders.
China agreed to slash canola seed duties from 85% to 15% by March, remove levies on canola meal, lobsters, and crabs through year-end, while Canada permits 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at 6.1% tariffs.
The pact signals Canada diversifying away from Trump’s erratic protectionism, the backdrop Carney plainly acknowledged.
Xi Jinping called the relationship a “turning point,” praising “new chapter” cooperation on clean energy, multilateralism, and security.
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US stocks ticked higher at midday Friday as the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, the Nasdaq advanced 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 116 points, or 0.2%.
But the intraday gains mask a deeper reality: uncertainty about Federal Reserve leadership and questions regarding central-bank independence have unsettled traders throughout the week.
President Trump’s comments Thursday about keeping Kevin Hassett in his current National Economic Council role rather than elevating him to Fed chair injected fresh political risk into markets.
The financial system sits at a critical juncture.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, and the succession process has become unexpectedly contentious.
Trump’s Thursday remark: “I actually want to keep you where you are if you want to know the truth,” was directed at Hassett during a White House healthcare event.
The president emphasized that losing Hassett to the Fed would deprive his administration of one of its most vocal economic messengers.
US stocks midday: Modest intraday gains fail to erase weekly weakness
The mechanics were swift.
The dollar rebounded from session lows on Trump’s remarks, while Treasury yields ticked higher, a signal that markets are pricing in a potentially less dovish Fed outcome under Warsh compared to Hassett.
For context, Hassett has been openly aligned with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates, while Warsh is perceived by some strategists as potentially more orthodox in his monetary-policy approach.
That distinction matters enormously to long-duration assets and bond valuations.
Banking stocks were a rare bright spot. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported robust fourth-quarter earnings Thursday, sending financial shares higher.
Goldman surged 4%, and Morgan Stanley jumped nearly 6% after each delivered earnings beats.
Energy stocks benefited from a rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude fell on on reduced concerns about Iran escalation.
However, the gains couldn’t offset deeper unease.
The S&P 500 is now down 0.3% for the week, the Nasdaq is off 0.6%, and the Dow has fallen 0.1%.
The weakness reflects investors’ parsing of what Trump’s comments mean for Fed independence and policy direction heading into critical economic data releases.
Fed succession uncertainty clouds sentiment
The core issue isn’t the intraday stock moves; it’s the question of whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its operational independence or become subject to political pressure for lower interest rates.
Powell this week forcefully defended the Fed’s autonomy, calling the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Fed headquarters renovations barely veiled political coercion.
Global central banks rallied to Powell’s defense, issuing a joint statement affirming the “cornerstone” role of Fed independence.
Traders are essentially asking: Will the next Fed chair prioritize price stability or presidential preferences?
Until markets get clarity, expect volatility to remain elevated.
The modestly positive intraday tone should not mask the underlying fragility. Positioning ahead of earnings, geopolitical headlines, and Fed succession drama will keep investors defensive.
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“GLP-1 drugs don’t just change what people eat,” Karthik Srinivasan, communications strategy consultant, tells Invezz.
They change whether people want to eat at all. That’s why this stops being a marketing problem and becomes a business-model problem for a whole lot of categories.
The weight-loss drug boom didn’t just spark a health revolution—it’s triggering a retail earthquake.
As Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and other GLP-1s surge into mainstream life, grocery budgets are collapsing: down 5.3% to 8.2% in just six months, with higher-income households cutting spending by as much as 8.6%.
And the hardest hit isn’t dinner—it’s the snack aisle.
Impulse favourites are fading fast: savoury snacks fall by 10.1%, sweets drop by roughly 8%, and baked goods slide by 7.5%.
Only yoghurt and fresh produce are seeing gains.
KPMG forecasts the scale of this shift: a $48 billion annual reduction in food and beverage spending through 2034.
This isn’t a cyclical dip—it’s appetite suppression that sticks, creating demand destruction that looks permanent.
By 2030, Circana predicts that GLP-1 users will account for 35% of all food and beverage sales. When biology says “no more,” marketing simply can’t compete.
From marketing problem to business-model crisis
Traditional food industry thinking assumes consumer desire exists.
A company’s job was to find the cravings, make them irresistible through packaging design and taste engineering, and sell more volume.
GLP-1 drugs obliterate that assumption.
According to Morgan Stanley research, 66% of GLP-1 users have reduced their snacking frequency from three or more daily snacks to two or fewer.
That’s not a messaging failure, it’s a neurological reset.
The medications decrease appetite and suppress hunger cravings by affecting the brain’s reward systems.
Approximately 85% of GLP-1 users report significant taste and appetite changes, with 74% actively avoiding fatty foods and 67% skipping sweets entirely, a study by International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) noted.
“Marketing assumes that a desire to consume food exists,” Srinivasan notes.
GLP-1s suppress that desire at the source. Brands cannot simply message their way out of muted appetite.
The implication is profound: traditional advertising that taps into cravings and emotional eating no longer functions when the neurological machinery that generates those impulses has been chemically disabled.
The shrinkflation paradox applies here, but in reverse.
Traditional shrinkflation, where a smaller package is sold at the same or higher price, is effective when the consumer doesn’t notice.
But GLP-1 users are acutely aware of portions and increasingly price-conscious.
Srinivasan explains the nuance:
Selling smaller portions at premium prices can work, but only for brands that are genuinely premium to begin with. That is, those that offer density, purpose, or experience rather than just volume. For everyone else, shrinking packs without rethinking value will definitely feel like stealth inflation, not innovation.
A smaller candy bar at the same price isn’t perceived as clever pricing; it’s perceived as poor value compared to a larger, high-protein alternative at a higher absolute cost.
Which food giants are actually failing?
The damage isn’t uniform, but it’s concentrated in the wrong places for traditional snackers.
PepsiCo has posted five consecutive quarters of declining savoury snacks volume.
Mondelez International recorded unfavourable volume and mix across all regions, with North America down 2.4% points, driven by soft demand for biscuits, baked snacks, and candy.
Hershey, the confectionery titan, acknowledged a “mild” year-on-year impact in November 2024, carefully worded language masking deeper structural concern.
The company saw North American salty-snacks net sales fall 15.5% year-over-year, with volume-and-mix declining 17%.
For a company projecting 2-4% long-term growth, this represents a significant shortfall.
The vulnerability isn’t distributed evenly. Ultra-processed, calorie-dense categories: chips, cookies, confectionery, sugary drinks, face the fiercest headwinds.
A separate KPMG analysis found that GLP-1 users reduce annual caloric intake by 21% and monthly grocery spending by 31%.
Over a decade, that compounds into an industry restructuring.
Analyst views range from conservative to aggressive: Piper Sandler estimates 20-30 basis points of impact on confectionery and salty snacks, while the broader $48 billion spending reduction forecast suggests significantly steeper headwinds for certain categories.
The restaurant collapse nobody’s talking about
Fast-food and limited-service restaurant spending has declined 8% among GLP-1 users, with 54% of GLP-1 users reporting they dine out “significantly less” or “less” frequently since starting medication.
The quick-service restaurant (QSR) model, built on the premise that consumers crave dopamine hits from highly processed, high-sodium, high-fat foods consumed quickly, fundamentally depends on appetite as a driver.
When appetite is chemically suppressed, that model fractures.
“The deeper challenge is that much of the food industry has been built on encouraging consumption beyond hunger,” Srinivasan explains.
This means more snacking, more frequency, and more indulgence. GLP-1 drugs expose that dependency. When biology—induced by GLP-1 drugs—says ‘enough’, there’s not much that brand storytelling can do.
The bifurcated market: Who wins, who dies
Here’s where the story becomes nuanced.
The snacking market isn’t disappearing; it’s fragmenting.
By 2030, 35% of US households will include a GLP-1 user. The remaining 65% will continue eating snacks with historic frequency.
But those two populations have fundamentally different needs. One seeks nutrient density within severely constrained portions.
The other seeks dopamine and indulgence. These are incompatible consumer bases.
Harish Bijoor, brand strategist, captures the complexity while speaking with Invezz:
Brands and products, particularly in the snacking industry, are all about hunger. When hunger itself is suppressed, then the market itself tends to get suppressed. The good point for the snack food brands, however, is the fact that not too many folk will go behind appetite suppression.
Yet he adds crucial context:
Appetite suppression is going to be a route that a whole host of people will take who are in a high-risk category when it comes to obesity. At the same time, the market that is not into these drugs is going to continue at a frenetic pace.
The winners are becoming clear: protein snacks. The global protein-snacks market is projected to grow at 8.7-9.1% CAGR from 2025 to 2035, expanding from $4.92 billion today to $10.83 billion by decade’s end.
Plant-based protein snacks dominate with 62.8% market share. High-protein bars, jerky, and nutrient-dense alternatives are capturing shelf space and consumer loyalty.
But the real validation comes from operators on the front lines.
“Yes, it’s true people are shifting to weight-loss medications, but that’s only part of the truth,” Kunal Singal, Executive Sous Chef at Hyderabad-based ROAST CCX, told Invezz.
In general, people are becoming more aware of what’s good and bad for them in the long run. Demand isn’t reducing; it’s shifting to healthier versions. If you’re selling fried potato chips, you’ll face a significant downfall. But if you’re selling beetroot chips, you’ll see sales increase every quarter.
“The fine-dining model won’t be majorly affected as long as menus are redesigned for new consumption needs, which is happening rapidly across the industry. The future is always a combination of great experience and healthy food,” Kunal added.
Singal’s observation reflects what’s happening across the food landscape: it’s not universal collapse, it’s intelligent adaptation.
The losers, traditional confectionery, commodity salty snacks, and calorie-dense baked goods, are those betting on yesterday’s consumer.
Morgan Stanley forecasts consumption of ice cream, cakes, cookies, candy, chocolate, frozen pizzas, chips, and regular sodas could decline up to 3% by 2035.
The algebra is simple: fewer consumers with an appetite for those categories, combined with non-GLP-1 consumers in this cohort reducing intake, equals secular decline.
The innovation imperative: Adaptation or extinction
Leading companies are betting on repositioning rather than defending legacy snacks.
Nestlé launched Vital Pursuit, a line of frozen meals explicitly designed for GLP-1 users, featuring portion control, high protein content, essential nutrients, and transparent positioning.
Sales have been robust enough that the company is expanding the line.
Notably, 77% of Vital Pursuit sales come from households without current GLP-1 users, suggesting health-conscious consumers broadly are adopting these products.
Conagra introduced “On Track” badges on 26 Healthy Choice frozen meals in early 2025, flagging products as high-protein, low-calorie, and fiber-rich.
PepsiCo’s acquisition of Siete, a plant-based snacking brand, positions the company in functional, protein-forward categories away from commodity salty snacks.
These aren’t defensive moves; they are strategic repositioning.
The critical distinction from previous food-company pivots is this: survival doesn’t come from selling less food for more money.
It comes from redefining the purpose of the product itself.
The venture capital signal
If you want to understand where food-industry growth is actually happening, follow venture capital.
Berry Street, a platform connecting GLP-1 users with registered dietitians, raised $50 million in 2025.
Fay Nutrition, an AI-powered preventative-care platform pairing patients with licensed nutritionists, raised $50 million in Series B funding from Goldman Sachs and General Catalyst.
Grüns, a nutrient-dense gummy brand, raised $35 million in Series B funding in 2025, money flowing to products formulated to fill nutritional gaps in bodies consuming 40% fewer calories than baseline.
These aren’t marginal bets.
They reflect investor conviction that the $190 billion opportunity lies in serving intentional, nutrient-dense consumption, not traditional snacking.
When biology beats marketing
When 35% of consumers have chemically suppressed appetite by 2030, snacking brands cannot message their way to growth.
The companies that survive will be those that acknowledge this shift as permanent, that reposition toward protein-rich, functional nutrition, and that serve intentional consumption rather than cravings.
Traditional snacking, built on the premise of appetite-driven impulse purchases, faces decline.
The bifurcation is already underway. Kunal Singal’s observation captures the reality: demand isn’t disappearing, it’s shifting.
Winners are building for the health-conscious, intentional-eating future. Losers are defending the junk-food past.
As Srinivasan concludes:
When biology says ‘enough’, there’s not much that brand storytelling can do.
The companies that win will be those that build for the GLP-1 demographic today, not those betting the demographic shrinks tomorrow.
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Indian stocks, especially the nation’s tech sector, will likely face turbulence in the first half of 2026, according to Amish Shah, a senior Bank of America Securities analyst.
Speaking this morning with CNBC, Shah said near-term events are stacked against investors, with the February 1st Union Budget likely to disappoint expectations for stimulus.
While foreign inflows could turn positive later in the year, the analyst cautioned H1 will be marked by fiscal constraints and political uncertainty – before a more favourable window opens post-May.
Why Union Budget could spark a market sell-off
Amish Shah sees the upcoming budget as a critical inflection point for Indian stocks. In the CNBC interview, he noted:
We don’t think that there is enough fiscal room to either do a capex stimulus or a consumption stimulus, which is both the stimulus that the markets are hoping for.
Without either measure, Shah believes the announcement will trigger a market sell-off next month.
Investors had been hoping for aggressive spending to support growth, but the government’s limited fiscal flexibility leaves little room for maneuver.
The absence of stimulus, combined with already cautious foreign institutional flows, sets the stage for volatility immediately after the budget.
What else could hurt Indian stocks in the first half of 2026
Beyond the union budget, Shah pointed to political developments as another headwind for Indian stocks in the months ahead.
Elections are scheduled in five states in May, including large contests in “Tamil Nadu” and “West Bengal” – alongside Kerala, Puducherry, and Assam.
According to the BofA analyst, governments tend to ramp up “populist measures” around election cycles, which “markets often don’t like.”
Together with fiscal caution, this populist spending may deter foreign investors, potentially leading to outflows. In short, sentiment will remain fragile as events are “set up against India” until May, Shah warned.
What may improve sentiment for Indian stocks post-May
Despite near-term challenges, the Bank of America expert sees a more “constructive environment” for Indian stocks after May.
“Post May, we think events and triggers for Indian markets start to turn favourable,” he noted.
Several factors could support stock price gains in the second half of 2026. These include potential Fed rate cuts and continued easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Additionally, the long-awaited increase in central government employees’ pay commission, which occurs once every decade and boosts consumption, could boost markets in H2 as well.
Importantly, after the May elections, India faces no further state polls until February 2027, giving the government a “clean window to do reforms.”
Shah believes reforms could excite markets and lift valuations. “All of it is reason why FII flows should come back to India,” BofA’s head of India research, Amish Shah, concluded.
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Global markets and politics are colliding as power, technology, and capital flow come under renewed strain.
In the United States, escalating federal threats over civil unrest raise constitutional stakes, while automakers confront hard realities about the pace of electrification.
In Asia, blockbuster semiconductor earnings underscore AI’s economic pull even as geopolitics loom large.
Meanwhile, a pivotal Indian tax ruling could redefine the rules for foreign investors navigating one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
Trump threatens to deploy troops in Minnesota over ICE protests
US President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act against Minnesota, escalating federal-state tensions over governance disputes.
The threat represents an extraordinary assertion of executive power, raising constitutional alarms among legal scholars and state officials.
Minnesota’s Democratic leadership has pushed back forcefully, labeling the move a dangerous overreach that undermines federalism principles.
Constitutional experts warn that such an invocation could trigger prolonged court battles and set a precedent for unprecedented executive intervention.
The standoff reflects deepening political polarization and power struggles between Washington and state governments.
Ford-BYD pivot towards hybrids
Ford’s negotiations with Chinese battery giant BYD signal Detroit’s strategic pivot toward hybrids as EV demand crumbles.
The automaker, which took a staggering $19.5 billion EV charge last month, is exploring importing BYD batteries for hybrid models produced outside the United States.
This partnership would tap BYD’s dominance, as the company controls roughly 55% of global EV battery production alongside CATL.
While negotiations remain preliminary with no guarantees, the deal reflects industry-wide recognition that battery-electric vehicles aren’t delivering profits.
BYD’s proven cost advantages and technology could give Ford competitive breathing room in the lucrative hybrid segment.
TSMC’s blockbuster Q4 earnings
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has posted record fourth-quarter profits, driven by insatiable artificial intelligence chip demand that’s reshaping the semiconductor industry.
TSMC’s market valuation has surged past NT$1 trillion, reflecting investor confidence in sustained AI-driven growth.
The chipmaker’s advanced manufacturing capacity remains the bottleneck for global AI development, with major tech companies competing fiercely for production slots.
Profit margins expanded significantly as AI customers accept premium pricing for cutting-edge nodes.
Geopolitical tensions around Taiwan add volatility to TSMC’s outlook, yet demand fundamentals remain robust.
Analysts project continued momentum through 2026, though supply constraints could eventually cap growth potential.
India’s tax court weighs in on Tiger Global-Walmart deal
An Indian court is set to rule on Tiger Global’s controversial 2018 Walmart transaction, potentially reshaping how the nation handles foreign investment taxation.
The case centers on whether Tiger Global’s exit from Flipkart through Walmart’s 2018 acquisition triggered taxable gains under Indian law.
The landmark decision could establish precedent for how New Delhi treats foreign venture capital exits and cross-border M&A transactions.
Tax authorities had previously challenged the deal’s valuation methodology.
A ruling favoring India’s tax position could expose other foreign investors to retroactive assessments.
The judgment carries implications beyond Tiger Global, affecting venture capital confidence in India’s investment ecosystem and regulatory predictability.
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Investors are piling into Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY) this morning, but the enthusiasm does not really have anything to do with Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Instead, GLXY shares are pushing higher on January 15th, mostly on infrastructure expansion. The company has secured approval to add 830 megawatts of power at its Helios Data Center Campus.
According to the New York-headquartered firm, this ERCOT approval effectively doubles its total capacity to 1.6 gigawatts. Year-to-date, Galaxy Digital stock is now up more than 30%.
Why this ERCOT approval is positive for GLXY stock
Galaxy Digital shares are being rewarded because the approval to expand Helios by 830 megawatts is more than a technical milestone for the Nasdaq-listed firm – it’s a strategic leap.
Data centers are the “backbone” of both crypto mining and artificial intelligence (AI) workloads – and power capacity on both fronts is the ultimate constraint.
By doubling its footprint to over 1.6 gigawatts, GLXY is reinforcing that it can scale alongside the most demanding industries of the decade.
Over time, this could attract institutional clients, diversify revenue streams, and position the firm as a hybrid player straddling two explosive growth markets.
In short, investors are viewing this infrastructure expansion as a transformative moment, positioning Galaxy Digital not only as a crypto powerhouse but also as a serious contender in the AI infrastructure race.
Crypto remains a long-term tailwind for Galaxy Digital stock
While today’s rally is mostly tied to AI infrastructure, crypto remains an important component of the GLXY story.
Bitcoin has resumed its upward trajectory this month, driven by institutional inflows, ETF adoption, and renewed interest in digital assets as a hedge against monetary uncertainty.
Moreover, the US Senate introduced a long-awaited crypto bill, adding to the momentum in crypto prices.
All in all, both macro factors and structural demand are driving BTC up – and if momentum holds, GLXY stock could benefit directly through its trading, custody, and mining operations.
The key takeaway is: crypto doesn’t need to be the driver every day for Galaxy Digital to thrive – but when it does rally, it provides a powerful secondary tailwind that reinforces the bull case.
How technicals suggest you should play Galaxy Digital
Investors should also note that the rally on Thursday pushed GLXY shares decisively past a major resistance, coinciding with their longer-term moving average (100-day).
This signals continued upward momentum in the weeks ahead, especially since the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) currently sits at 53, only significantly below overbought territory.
What’s also worth mentioning is that Wall Street analysts recommend sticking with Galaxy Digital stock as well.
According to the Wall Street Journal, consensus rating on this crypto and AI stock remains at “buy” with the mean target of about $49, indicating potential upside of another 50% from here.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 426 points, or 0.9%, on Thursday as Wall Street rediscovered its appetite for large-cap stocks.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% while the Nasdaq advanced 0.9%, signaling a broad market rebound driven by a resurgence in semiconductor stocks and unexpectedly strong bank earnings.
The rally marked a decisive pivot from earlier-week headwinds tied to geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve concerns, underscoring how quickly investor sentiment can shift when earnings and economic data support risk appetite.
Chip sector leads after Taiwan semi’s bullish 2026 capex plan
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company delivered a blockbuster earnings report that reset the narrative around artificial intelligence demand.
The company posted fourth-quarter revenues of $33.1 billion, up 20.5% year-over-year, and announced a staggering 2026 capital expenditure budget of $52 billion to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025’s $40.9 billion spending.
The upside surprise was unmistakable.
Markets had expected capex closer to $48–$50 billion, so TSMC’s aggressive commitment signaled unwavering confidence in sustained demand for AI chip-making capacity.
For investors, the number matters enormously. When TSMC commits to massive capex, it cascades through the supply chain.
Equipment makers like ASML, Applied Materials, and semiconductor design firms benefit from the orders required to build out fabs.
TSMC shares jumped more than 6%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 3.34% in pre-market trading.
NVIDIA and AMD each gained more than 2%. The message was clear: the AI boom isn’t showing signs of weakening, and the need for advanced chip capacity will be sustained for years.
Banks climb, and oil pullback adds momentum
Meanwhile, Wall Street’s biggest investment banks delivered a one-two punch.
Goldman Sachs reported a 12% profit increase to $4.62 billion in net income, with deal-making fees surging 25% year-over-year.
Morgan Stanley topped expectations with a 18% profit jump to $4.4 billion, powered by a 47% revenue surge in investment banking, evidence that corporate mergers and acquisitions activity remains robust.
Both stocks climbed sharply, with Goldman advancing 4% and Morgan Stanley nearly 6%, each reaching fresh 52-week highs.
The rotation into blue chips received additional support from labor market confirmation and energy relief.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 198,000 for the week ending January 10, beating expectations of 215,000 and signaling labor market resilience without overheating.
Separately, Brent crude oil plummeted more than 4%, to around $63.69 per barrel, after President Trump signaled a pause on potential military action against Iran, easing fears of a Middle East supply disruption.
Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure on the broader economy, a development that tends to lift cyclical and financial stocks.
The combination of TSMC’s capex confidence, bank earnings resilience, and improving economic signals sets up favorable conditions for a sustained rally if momentum holds.
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The United States and Taiwan struck a trade agreement Thursday that aims to mobilize up to $500 billion in Taiwanese semiconductor investment and government-backed credit guarantees to build advanced chip factories on American soil.
Under the framework, Taiwanese firms are expected to commit a minimum of $250 billion in direct investment, supported by an additional $250 billion in credit guarantees from the Taiwan government.
In exchange, the US will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%, aligning Taiwan with Japan and South Korea.
The Trump administration will also grant temporary import allowances for companies constructing chip manufacturing plants domestically.
Taiwan’s credit framework aims to fund US fab builds
The $500 billion commitment, split between expected direct investment and government-backed credit, represents a structured approach to semiconductor financing.
Direct investment from Taiwanese foundries like TSMC and component suppliers demonstrates Taiwan’s willingness to diversify production outside its home island.
The $250 billion credit guarantee from Taiwan’s government is designed to backstop financing, making it easier for Taiwanese firms to borrow and fund multi-year fabrication plant construction.
Advanced semiconductor fabs typically cost $15 billion to $25 billion each, so the guarantee framework is intended to facilitate building multiple facilities simultaneously.
TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, appears positioned as a cornerstone participant.
The company has previously announced plans to expand its US manufacturing presence in Arizona with multiple fabrication plants under the CHIPS Act.
The timeline for further expansions and total committed US investment remains subject to market conditions and production demand.
Tariff cuts to 15%
The tariff reduction provides immediate certainty.
By lowering Taiwan’s rate to 15%, the deal matches arrangements with Japan and South Korea, establishing tariff parity among key semiconductor suppliers.
This simplifies supply chains and removes uncertainty that had pressured Taiwanese exporters and US customers in recent years.
The Section 232 carve-outs represent the deal’s operational component.
During fab construction, Taiwanese chip manufacturers can import up to 2.5 times their planned production capacity without incurring tariffs.
Once plants become operational, that allowance steps down to 1.5 times production capacity.
This framework is designed to prevent tariff-driven delays during the multi-year construction process.
Strategic rationale and supply-chain context
The deal addresses ongoing national-security concerns about semiconductor supply concentration.
The US currently sources the majority of advanced chips from Taiwan, a geographic concentration that has prompted policymakers to pursue domestic manufacturing capacity.
By creating incentives for Taiwanese chip suppliers to expand US operations, officials aim to build manufacturing redundancy and reduce vulnerability to disruptions in the Taiwan Strait.
The deal complements existing programs like the CHIPS Act, which offers direct federal grants and tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing in the United States.
Together, these mechanisms are intended to shift the global semiconductor manufacturing footprint and create a more resilient domestic supply chain over the coming decade.
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Ripple notched another regulatory milestone in Europe while XRP held above $2, underpinned by inflows that contrasted with broader market outflows.
Analysts say confirmation of a trend shift likely hinges on clearing resistance around the mid-$2.40s, with $3.05 flagged as a key upside level.
On Jan. 14, 2026, Ripple’s chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, said the company had secured preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution license from Luxembourg’s CSSF, positioning Ripple to scale payments across the EU and EEA.
At the same time, CoinShares reported strong weekly inflows into XRP even as the wider market saw sizable outflows.
Licensing push in Luxembourg and the UK
Alderoty said the Luxembourg approval would allow Ripple “to scale Ripple Payments across all 27 EU and EEA member states.”
According to an official release, the EU license helps the company support institutions moving from legacy systems to real-time, 24/7 payments.
“The EU was amongst the first major jurisdictions to introduce comprehensive digital assets regulation, which provides the certainty financial institutions need to move blockchain from pilots to commercial scale,” said Monica Long, Ripple’s president.
The green light in Luxembourg follows last week’s announcement that Ripple received its EMI license and Cryptoasset Registration from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.
With the EU and UK additions, Ripple says it now holds more than 75 regulatory licenses worldwide.
The firm reports Ripple Payments has reached over 90% of daily FX markets and processed over $95 billion in volume to date.
Flows and market structure support XRP above $2
While digital asset funds saw roughly $454 million in outflows in one of the market’s worst weeks since mid-2023, CoinShares data showed $45 million of weekly inflows into XRP, a more than 400% increase week on week.
That divergence has helped keep XRP above $2 even as liquidity tightened elsewhere.
Trading activity looks balanced rather than speculative.
CryptoQuant’s Binance trading volume Z-score sits around 0.44, slightly above the 30-day average and within a neutral range, a setup often seen during accumulation phases.
According to Source 2, XRP is currently trading around $2.13 with a nearly $130 billion market cap as the fifth-largest asset.
It is up over 13% in 2026 and has risen more than 200% over the past 18 months.
On the weekly chart, price is stabilizing above $2.00 within a broader bullish structure, though a descending trendline still caps upside.
If XRP holds above $2.00 and reclaims that trendline with a strong weekly close, analysts see room for a move toward $2.70 to $3.05.
Key levels and what analysts are watching
Market analyst CrediBULL Crypto highlighted a completed “triple tap” at range highs, pointing to two scenarios: a pullback toward $1.77 within a larger uptrend, or a defended base around $2 where dips are bought, with a target at higher, untapped levels near $3.
Futures trader Dom said $2.10 has held for months, but a decisive shift likely requires acceptance well above the mid-$2.40s on the daily chart.
Last week’s rally stalled just below $2.40 before a Jan. 6 rejection, a move that followed more than $100 million in net whale selling from Jan. 4 to Jan. 7.
A change in that behavior would likely be needed if XRP retests $2.40.
Source 2 also notes the $3.05 region as a major liquidity area where previous rallies of roughly 70% and 38% stalled, underscoring its significance as resistance.
Bottom line
Ripple’s EU licensing progress and XRP’s supportive flow picture have kept the token steady above $2, but technical resistance remains.
Watch for whether buyers can establish acceptance above the mid-$2.40s and ultimately challenge the $3.05 area to confirm a stronger bullish shift.
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The Nifty 50 Index remained on edge on Friday as investors waited for the upcoming earnings by some of India’s biggest banks. It was trading at ₹25,720, down by 2.4% from its highest point this year.
Top Indian banks to publish earnings
The Nifty 50 Index, which tracks the biggest companies in India, will be in the spotlight as key banks publish their financial results.
Analysts believe that these companies will publish strong earnings as the impact of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) starts to boost their loan growth metrics.
HDFC, one of the country’s biggest bank, will publish its numbers on Saturday, with analysts expecting its earnings growth to continue. Analysts expect the profit growth to be 9.7%, the highest among other banks.
HDFC is emerging from a period in which it decided to deliberately slow down its lending in order to boost its liquidity buffers. As such, analysts now expect that it will experience some recovery in lending margins after two quarters of contraction.
The earnings come at a time when its stock is struggling after falling from last year’s high of INR 1,019 to the current INR 920. It is trading at its lowest level since April last year.
ICICI is the other Nifty 50 bank that will release its numbers on Saturday. Unlike HDFC, ICIC’s stock has rebounded recently and is hovering at its highest level since August last year. Analysts expect the company’s results to show that its profit growth came in at 5.1%, helped by its strong loan growth.
Yes Bank will publish its numbers on Saturday as well. While it is not a Nifty 50 Index constituent, it is one of the closely-watched Indian bank. Its stock had jumped in the past few months as the turnaround efforts accelerated. Analysts expect that its revenue will come in at INR 42 billion from the previous 37 billion rupees.
The other notable Nifty 50 Index bank to watch is IndusInd, which has been one of the top laggards in the country. Its business had come under pressure in the past few years because of its toxic loan book. It also experienced an INR 19.6 billion accounting discrepancy and replaced its senior leaders. IndusInd will publish its numbers on Friday next week.
Other Indian banks like Kotak Mahindra, Axis Bank, and State Bank of India will publish their numbers later this month.
Additionally, other companies that will publish their numbers next week are Hindustan Zinc, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Shriram Finance, and Vedanta.
The Nifty Index is also reacting to the ongoing developments with the United States after Donald Trump threatened to boost tariffs on goods from the country to 500%. India will also be affected after Trump said that he would impose a tariff on countries doing business with Iran.
Nifty 50 Index technical analysis
Nifty Index chart | Source: TradingView
The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nifty 50 Index has remained in a tight range in the past few months. It has remained inside a narrow range between the key resistance and support levels at INR 26,360 and INR 25,710.
It has remained inside the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Most importantly, it has formed a bullish flag pattern, which is made up of a flagpole and a horizontal channel.
Therefore, the index will likely have a bullish breakout, potentially to the upper side of the horizontal channel at INR 26,360. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at INR 27,000.
On the other hand, a move below the year-to-date low of INR 25,467 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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