GitLab stock has crashed in the past few months, mirroring the performance of other software companies. GTLB stock dropped to the current $37, down by 50% from its highest level in 2025. This article explores why it has crashed and whether it will rebound.

GitLab stock has crashed as concerns about the software industry remains 

The GTLB stock has crashed in the past few months as investors remained concerned about the health of the software industry. It also dropped as investors anticipate that the company will be disrupted by artificial intelligence technology.

The decline mirrors that of other software companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, and Atlassian, which have shed billions of dollars in value.

Analysts believe that the company’s growth will slow down in the coming years. The most recent results showed that its revenue jumped by 25% in the third quarter of last year to $244 million, while its operating margin moved to 18%.

This growth has happened as more companies have moved into its ecosystem. Some of the biggest companies in its ecosystem are Thales, Google, and NVIDIA. It has over 10,475 customers, with 1,405 bringing in over $100k in revenue.

As a result, data compiled by Gartner shows that it is the leader in Magic Quadrant for AI Code Assistants. It is also in the leadership category for DevOps platforms.

Wall Street analysts expect that the upcoming results will show that its fourth-quarter revenue rose by 19% to $252 million, while its annual figure jumped by 24% to $947 million.

Therefore, the consensus view among analysts is that its revenue growth will slow to 19% to $1.13 billion, while its earnings per share will move from $0.9 in 2025 to $1.03.

Additionally, analysts have downgraded the company in the past few weeks. Morgan Stanley downgraded it to equal-weight, with the target moving from $55 to $42. Similarly, Barclays and Cantor Fitzgerald have also downgraded to underweight and neutral.

As a result, the average target for the GitLab stock price has dropped to $50.7 from the $53 three months ago. The consensus was $76 twelve months ago.

On the positive side, the company’s valuation metrics have improved in the past few months, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio to 37. Another positive is that there are unconfirmed rumors that DataDog is considering making a bid for the company. GitLab has been exploring a sale since 2024.

Gitlab share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the GTLB stock price has crashed from last year’s high of $74 to a low of $32.80 this year. It recently dropped and crashed below the key support level at $38.60, its lowest level in April and August last year. 

The stock has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. It is now attempting to retest the key resistance level at $38.60.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the GitLab stock price continues falling, potentially to the year-to-date low of $32. It will then bounce back later this year as jitters about the software industry wanes.

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Investors are bailing on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) this morning after the semiconductor giant posted market-beating Q4 earnings but disappointed on the guidance front.

According to the company’s management, its soft guidance is mostly related to demand outpacing supply. Simply put, on the earnings call, Intel essentially told investors that it doesn’t have enough of what customers want.

On the surface, this sure seems like a great problem to have. Still, a senior Bank of America analyst, Vivek Arya, recommends that investors part ways with INTC shares at current levels.

Despite the post-earnings decline, Intel stock remains up more than 15% year-to-date.

BofA’s dovish view on Intel stock is not based on guidance

Interestingly, Arya’s bearish view on INTC stock isn’t even tied to the company’s outlook. In fact, he agrees that seeing demand outpace supply is good news for Intel shareholders in the near-term.  

But he still refrained from recommending investing in Intel on the post-earnings dip primarily due to valuation concerns.

“We see no reason to buy a stock trading at 90 times price earnings when the leader of the market, Nvidia, is trading at about 25 times only,” he told CNBC in an interview today.

According to him, Intel’s stretched valuation appears even more concerning given the company’s manufacturing business and its product pipeline “are just not keeping pace with where the industry is going.”

Arya favours trimming exposure to INTC because it isn’t particularly well-positioned to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor on manufacturing and with Nvidia or AMD on design – at least in the near-term.

Meanwhile, Intel doesn’t pay a dividend either to appear any more attractive as a long-term holding either.

Could INTC shares sink further from current levels?

According to Vivek Arya, Intel’s commitment to setting up chip manufacturing expertise in the US is admirable, but delivering on that promise will take another two-to-three-years.

But the stock has already “run up well ahead” of what the multinational can realistically deliver in 2026 – making up for a strong enough reason to consider unloading it at current levels, he added.

On Friday, the Bank of America analyst reiterated his “underperform” rating on INTC, with a $40 price target indicating potential for another 13% downside from here.

What’s also worth mentioning is that Intel shares are hovering just above their “20-day MA” at the time of writing. A decisive break below the $44 level may accelerate downward momentum in the near-term.

That’s partly why options traders are currently signalling a continued decline to about $38 in INTC over the next three months.  

How Wall Street recommends playing Intel in 2026

Other Wall Street firms seem to agree with BofA’s dovish view on Intel stock as well.

According to Barchart, consensus rating on INTC shares sits at “hold” only, with the mean target of about $41 indicating potential downside of more than 10% from here.

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US consumer sentiment improved modestly in January, showing gains across demographic groups even as Americans remained uneasy about high prices, job prospects and the broader economic outlook, according to a closely watched survey released on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a final reading of 56.4 in January, up from a preliminary estimate of 54.0 and from 52.9 in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the figure to remain unrevised from the earlier estimate.

While the increase marks a step forward, sentiment remains deeply depressed by historical standards.

One of the sharpest sentiment slumps in decades

The recent decline in confidence ranks among the most severe in the survey’s history, which stretches back to the 1950s.

Over the past decade, comparable drops have occurred only during the peak of post-pandemic inflation in 2022 and after President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs last spring.

Even with January’s improvement, national sentiment remains more than 20% below its level a year ago.

“While the overall improvement was small, it was broad-based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike,” Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Inflation expectations ease, but frustration remains

The survey showed a modest easing in inflation expectations.

Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.0% over the next year, down from a preliminary reading of 4.2% and the lowest level since January 2025.

Expectations for inflation over the next five years slipped to 3.3% from an initial estimate of 3.4%, though they remain slightly above last month’s reading of 3.2%.

While inflation has slowed significantly over the past three years, it is still above its long-run trend.

Many households remain frustrated by the cumulative impact of past price increases, even as they express confidence that inflation will not surge again.

That confidence is an important signal for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who worry that entrenched fears about rising prices could influence spending and wage-setting behavior, potentially fueling inflation in a self-reinforcing cycle.

Spending holds up despite sour mood

Despite widespread dissatisfaction, consumers have continued to spend.

Data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed solid gains in consumer spending in October and November, which many economists believe supported a strong finish for economic growth in the final quarter of 2025.

The resilience in spending suggests that while households feel strained, they have not yet pulled back sharply.

This divergence between sentiment and actual behaviour has been a recurring feature of the US economy since the pandemic.

Tariffs loom as a potential risk

The Michigan survey also indicated that consumers are not yet linking international developments to their assessment of the domestic economy.

Interviews for the January index concluded on Monday, shortly after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries as part of a push to acquire Greenland.

Those tensions appeared to ease midweek after Trump said he had reached a framework for a deal with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Hsu said that brief episodes of tariff rhetoric are unlikely to shift consumer views, but prolonged uncertainty could have an impact.

She warned that a renewed escalation in trade tensions, similar to last spring’s tariff disputes, would likely weigh on sentiment just as consumers have begun to ease their concerns.

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Europe is bracing for a sharper, more transactional political economy.

The UK is signalling an “economic reset” with China, as Starmer heads to Beijing flanked by heavyweight finance and trade figures in a bid to re-energise investment and partnerships.

At home, regulators are turning the screws on Big Tech, with Ofcom launching a formal probe into Meta’s data disclosures.

On the continent, Brussels is wary of Trump’s expanding diplomatic footprint, while France’s government survives, yet remains on thin ice.

UK signals economic reset with heavy Beijing delegation

Starmer’s bringing the full bench to China next week, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, Business Secretary Peter Kyle, and HSBC boss Brendan Nelson in tow.

The move signals London’s dead seriousness about resetting ties with Beijing after years of cold-shoulder treatment.

This isn’t a ceremonial trip; having Treasury and Trade firepower alongside the PM screams urgency on £100 billion in annual trade.

Beijing’s already laying groundwork, hosting 30 British firms for pre-visit negotiations.

What’s the real play? Starmer’s positioning of Britain as Trump-proof, seeking Chinese capital and tech partnerships, while Washington is unpredictable on trade.

Ofcom signals crackdown on Meta’s data compliance

Ofcom just dropped a regulatory hammer on Meta, opening a formal investigation into whether the tech giant misled UK regulators on WhatsApp Business data.

The probe hinges on last year’s wholesale SMS market review, where Meta supposedly provided incomplete or inaccurate information about WhatsApp’s business messaging capabilities.

It means Ofcom suspects Meta undersold or obscured WhatsApp’s competitive threat to traditional SMS services.

Meta’s playing nice publicly, pledging “substantial resources” for compliance, but this investigation signals growing impatience from British tech regulators.

The stakes? Potential fines and tighter oversight of how Meta monetizes user data across its ecosystem.

EU sees red over Trump’s peace board power grab

Brussels just fired off a diplomatic shot across Trump’s bow; leaked documents reveal the EU’s foreign policy arm is flagging “serious concerns” about Trump’s lifetime chairmanship of his new Board of Peace.

The core gripe? The board’s charter veers wildly from its original Gaza mandate, essentially creating a shadow UN that Trump controls indefinitely.

The EU’s diplomatic service argues it violates constitutional principles and undermines UN autonomy.

Only Hungary and Bulgaria signed on; France, Italy, Germany, and Spain are sitting it out, citing governance red flags and Putin’s seat at the table.

Costa’s line? The EU will engage with Gaza, but not blank-check Trump’s geopolitical playground.

French government survives another vote of no-confidence

France’s third prime minister in 13 months just lived to fight another day.

PM Sébastien Lecornu scraped through Friday’s no-confidence vote 269–288, falling short of the threshold needed to topple his government.

His survival hinges on Socialist support, the kingmaker in France’s fractured parliament, where no party holds a majority.

Lecornu invoked Article 49.3, the controversial “nuclear option,” to bypass debate and ram through the income portion of the 2026 budget, a move that’s felled the last two prime ministers over identical overreach.

The budget targets a 5% deficit, still 200 basis points above Brussels’ 3% ceiling, making France’s fiscal trajectory Europe’s problem.

A second no-confidence vote looms for the spending portion. For markets, French government stability remains one Article 49.3 away from collapse.

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Tonight’s digest captures markets and geopolitics colliding in real time.

In Abu Dhabi, Zelenskyy’s trilateral talks with Russia and the US deliver optics, not breakthroughs, as territorial red lines harden into a durable stalemate.

In corporate America, Amazon’s sweeping job cuts underscore that Big Tech’s efficiency drive is structural, not cyclical.

Meanwhile, investors are stampeding into safe havens, sending precious metals to record highs, while Bitcoin’s $100,000 narrative fades fast under renewed macro pressure.

Zelenskyy gambles on Abu Dhabi as territorial stalemate deepens

First trilateral talks in four years kicked off Friday night in Abu Dhabi, with Ukraine, Russia, and the US finally in the same room.

But don’t mistake the optics for momentum. Zelenskyy just confirmed what everyone already knew: territory is the deal-breaker.

Putin demands Ukraine cede the remaining 25% of Donetsk it controls; Zelenskyy flatly refuses, citing constitutional grounds and battlefield realities, his forces hold land Russia couldn’t take in years of brutal grinding.

The security guarantees? Done. The reconstruction plan? Nearly finalized. The land? Unsolvable.

Witkoff’s pre-talks hint that “most issues” are settled was a cover for deep divisions.

Zelenskyy countered with dark humor in Davos: “Russians must compromise too, not just Ukraine.” Mathematically, this is theater.

Amazon’s 30,000-job purge accelerates

Amazon’s swinging the axe again.

After cutting 14,000 white-collar jobs in October, the e-commerce giant is set to eliminate another 14,000 corporate roles starting January 27, bringing its total restructuring target to nearly 30,000, the largest layoff in company history.

The second wave will hammer AWS, retail, Prime Video, and the People Experience and Technology (HR) division.

Jassy is shifting the blame from AI to “cultural fit” and bureaucratic bloat, claiming the pandemic created layers of middle management that slow decision-making.

Employees facing termination got 90 days of full pay and severance, with preferential consideration for internal transfers.

Translation for markets: Amazon’s remaking its workforce while profitable, signaling that tech’s efficiency obsession is structural, not cyclical.

Precious metals breaking records on geopolitical chaos

Gold shattered its all-time high Friday, kissing $4,967 per ounce, a 14.2% jump in just 23 days.

Silver hit $99.34, within spitting distance of the mythical $100 threshold.

Platinum posted a fresh record at $2,749. The holy trinity of safe havens is screaming capital flight from US assets. Fed rate-cut expectations for late 2026 are evaporating real yields, making non-yielding gold suddenly attractive.

But here’s the nuance: India’s precious metals market is getting flooded with financial flows, ₹15,000-16,000 crore poured in December alone, rather than traditional jewelry demand.

Silver’s industrial narrative (solar, EVs, electronics) is layering onto safe-haven buying, explaining its 150% outperformance versus gold over 12 months.

Bitcoin’s $100K dream deflates as macro headwinds resurface

Bitcoin’s collapse from $97,000 to $89,000 in eight days has flipped the narrative hard.

Prediction market odds for a dump to $69,000 tripled in 24 hours, from 11.6% last Thursday to 30% Friday, signaling capitulation among retail and semi-pro traders.

The whipsaw is brutal: Trump’s tariff threats triggered $865 million in liquidations; his pause sent BTC bouncing to $90K; then reality set in.

Open interest in derivatives has stalled between 240,000-265,000 BTC for ten straight days, meaning zero new money flowing in.

Gold’s record-breaking rally is cannibalizing risk appetite; investors are rotating into safe havens, not digital assets. The structural case for $100,000 looked airtight two weeks ago.

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Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) jumped about 4% today, putting the tech heavyweight back in the spotlight as investors reassess both its fundamentals and its valuation.

An industry comparison from Benzinga suggests Microsoft continues to stand out versus software peers on growth, profitability, and balance sheet strength, even as the signals across valuation metrics remain mixed.

With shares recently trading around the mid-$450s, the key question for markets is whether this rally reflects durable earnings power or simply renewed enthusiasm priced in.

Microsoft stock: what is happening and why it matters

Benchmarking Microsoft against major software names, Benzinga reports a Price to Earnings ratio of 32.09 versus an industry average of 55.5 and a Price to Book of 9.24 versus 15.9, suggesting a discount on earnings and book value.

Its Price to Sales of 11.46 exceeds the 6.62 average, pointing to a richer sales multiple.

The company’s EBITDA of $48.06 billion and gross profit of $53.63 billion far surpass industry averages, and revenue growth of 18.43% is ahead of the 13.03% peer baseline.

Shares recently traded at $454.59, up 0.76%, according to Benzinga.

Seeking Alpha notes the stock has fallen roughly 12% since a prior bullish write-up despite recent positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions, framing an ongoing debate around valuation and momentum.

Valuation and profitability metrics

On valuation, Microsoft’s P/E of 32.09 and P/B of 9.24 are below the industry averages of 55.5 and 15.9, respectively, indicating comparatively lower pricing on earnings and book value.

Its P/S of 11.46 is well above the 6.62 average, implying a premium on revenue relative to peers.

Return on equity stands at 7.85% versus the 10.14% industry average, which suggests lower equity efficiency.

However, profit scale is a clear differentiator.

Benzinga’s data shows EBITDA of $48.06 billion versus an industry average of $1.03 billion and gross profit of $53.63 billion versus $1.59 billion, highlighting substantial operating heft and cash generation.

Growth and competitive context

Microsoft’s revenue growth of 18.43% outpaces the industry average of 13.03%, signaling continued sales expansion.

Benzinga’s peer set spans large and mid-cap software and security companies, offering a broad frame of reference for these comparisons.

The company operates across three segments, according to Benzinga: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing.

That mix underscores exposure to enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and consumer platforms.

Benzinga reports a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, lower than the top four peers it compared, indicating less reliance on debt financing and a relatively stronger balance sheet position.

Recent stock performance

Per Benzinga, the stock was at $454.59, up 0.76%.

According to Seeking Alpha, shares have declined roughly 12% since a prior bullish analysis, even as the company delivered positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions in recent months.

That divergence between fundamentals and price performance is a focal point for investors assessing risk and reward.

Benzinga’s data shows Microsoft trading at a discount on earnings and book, a premium on sales, and delivering above-average growth with strong profit scale and low leverage.

According to Seeking Alpha, the stock’s recent pullback despite beats and upward revisions keeps attention on how far the current multiples can stretch relative to peers.

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The World Economic Forum’s 56th annual meeting concluded Friday evening in Davos with a sobering realization that the international order that governed global finance and politics since World War II seems dead.

What emerged over those five days is a world fragmenting into competing power blocs, with technological disruption arriving faster than anyone expected.

The financial markets are still pricing neither the downside risks nor the upside opportunities of this fundamental shift.​

Trump’s Greenland play reshapes Arctic geopolitics

President Trump’s Wednesday meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte produced a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland and Arctic security that signaled a seismic shift in how Washington views its alliances and borders.

While Trump stopped short of explicitly threatening military force, the diplomatic message was clear: NATO’s Danish ally is now negotiating how to retain sovereignty.​

On Ukraine, Trump claimed he was “very close” to a ceasefire deal, but warned both Russia and Ukraine that failure to negotiate would be “stupid.”

The implicit threat was direct as the US could withdraw support if peace talks stall.

Carney declares the rules-based order ‘dead’

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney articulated what every major world leader had come to accept, but few will admit publicly: the rules-based international order “no longer works.”

His Tuesday speech called 2026 a “rupture, not a transition,” not a temporary disruption but a structural break in how the world operates.

His language was blunt. The multilateral institutions that governed post-war cooperation, the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and regional development banks, are “under threat.”

In their place, countries are seeking “greater strategic autonomy” in energy, food, critical minerals, and supply chains.

Carney’s most damning observation: “When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.”​

Remarkably, no major leader at Davos argued to restore the old order.

Instead, discussions centered on positioning for a new world of regional blocs: a US-led bloc, a China-led bloc, and an increasingly contested middle ground where countries like India, Indonesia, and Brazil try to navigate between rivals.

Musk compresses AGI timeline, and Tesla’s market bet

Elon Musk’s first-ever Davos appearance delivered the kind of timelines that immediately move markets.

He said Tesla expects Full Self-Driving regulatory approval in Europe by February 2026 and humanoid robots for public sale by the end of next year.

Most provocatively, he predicted artificial general intelligence could arrive by year-end 2026, with all of humanity combined surpassed by 2030 or 2031.​

Tesla’s stock surged 3% on these remarks.

The market implications are enormous. Tesla’s current valuation assumes the Optimus humanoid robot will eventually become a multimillion-unit business.

If Musk’s timeline holds and these robots actually ship functional by 2027, Tesla’s addressable market expands from $2 trillion to over $100 trillion (replacement of human labor across industries). ​

Jensen Huang’s $85 trillion question

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reframed AI not as speculative hype but as the “largest infrastructure buildout in human history”: $85 trillion over 15 years.

His most revealing observation was about GPU spot prices rising, not just for the latest chips but for models two generations old.

When commodity prices rise in a supposed bubble, it signals a shortage, not excess. Huang argued this proves demand is genuine and accelerating.​

Energy contracts are spiking as electricity becomes the binding constraint; companies can’t run AI without stable power. This infrastructure layer is still early stage, suggesting that capex will accelerate further.​

The IMF admits what no one wants to address

IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva stated plainly: 40% of jobs globally will be disrupted by AI in the coming years, and in advanced economies, it’s 60%.

Yet there exists no global framework for retraining, social support, or workforce transition.

Without coordinated retraining programs, she warned, AI-driven job displacement will fuel political fragmentation and populism exactly when global cooperation is most needed.​

Georgieva framed the scale as “a tsunami hitting the labor market,” but the real crisis lies in the uneven distribution of opportunities.

She warned of what she called “the accordion of opportunities,” a widening gap where wealthy nations with robust education systems, digital infrastructure, and capital reserves will adapt quickly to AI, while poorer countries lack the resources to upskill workers or invest in AI adoption.

Markets are pricing an orderly transition with modest earnings growth.

They are not pricing either extreme: the downside of geopolitical chaos, collapsing trade, or the upside of AI/robotics creating markets so vast they dwarf current valuations.

The next week’s earnings season will determine which narrative dominates.

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The Walt Disney Company remains on track to appoint a new chief executive early this year, as the entertainment giant moves closer to resolving a long-running succession process and faces renewed pressure to revive its underperforming stock.

In a letter to shareholders released late Thursday, board chairman James Gorman said Disney expects “to announce the appointment of the Company’s next CEO in early 2026.”

Gorman, the former Morgan Stanley chief executive, was appointed in August 2024 to chair Disney’s succession planning committee.

A decade of underperformance weighs on the transition

One of the most immediate challenges facing Disney’s next leader will be restoring investor confidence after a prolonged period of stock underperformance.

Over the past decade, Disney shares have risen just 17%, compared with a 263% gain for the S&P 500 and a 729% surge for streaming rival Netflix.

The muted returns have come despite Disney’s global brand strength and diversified businesses across theme parks, media networks, and streaming.

There have been some recent signs of improvement, with theme parks emerging as a steady and reliable source of cash flow and the Disney+ streaming platform beginning to generate profits amid intense competition.

Still, analysts and investors see the leadership transition as a critical opportunity to reset strategy and address concerns about growth, capital allocation, and shareholder returns.

Succession process intensifies under the board

Disney’s board has been working steadily toward a decision.

According to a regulatory filing on Thursday, the company’s succession committee met five times during the last fiscal year as it narrowed the field of candidates to succeed Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger.

The company reiterated that a successor will be named in early 2026, ahead of its annual shareholder meeting scheduled for March 18.

In 2020, when Iger previously stepped aside, his successor was announced roughly two weeks before the annual meeting.

As part of the process, Disney has been seeking shareholder feedback on a new compensation structure for its next CEO.

Internal candidates are undergoing what the company described as a rigorous preparation programme, including mentorship from Iger, external coaching, and direct engagement with all board members.

Bloomberg News has previously reported that four divisional chiefs are in contention, though the race is widely viewed as narrowing to two leading candidates: parks chief Josh D’Amaro, 54, and Dana Walden, 61, co-chair of Disney Entertainment.

Broader leadership changes and retention efforts

The CEO search is unfolding alongside broader leadership moves aimed at maintaining stability.

Last week, Disney said it would appoint Dave Filoni to replace Kathleen Kennedy as head of its Star Wars franchise, a significant creative leadership change within one of the company’s most valuable intellectual properties.

Disney has also renewed contracts with other senior executives, including its chief financial officer and chief legal officer, in an effort to retain key leaders through the transition period.

The company disclosed that Iger, 74, earned $45.8 million in total compensation last year, up from $41.1 million the year before, underscoring the scale of executive pay as the board seeks shareholder input on future remuneration.

As Disney approaches a pivotal leadership decision, investors will be watching closely to see whether a new chief executive can translate operational strengths into sustained shareholder returns.

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After days dominated by geopolitical tensions tied to US President Donald Trump’s Greenland ambitions and renewed tariff threats toward European allies, global markets are heading into a pivotal week shaped less by diplomacy and more by data, earnings and central bank signals.

A heavy slate of corporate results and a closely watched Federal Reserve interest rate decision promise to test investor nerves at a time when markets are already under strain.

Mega-cap tech earnings take centre stage

Four members of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Apple — are scheduled to report quarterly earnings in the coming days.

Together, the group represents roughly $10 trillion in market capitalisation, accounting for about 16% of the S&P 500.

Their results arrive at a delicate moment.

US equities are mired in their weakest stretch since last summer, Treasury bonds have struggled to regain footing, gold has surged to test $5,000 an ounce for the first time, and geopolitical risks continue to loom large.

Against that backdrop, the first wave of mega-cap tech earnings in 2026 carries unusually high stakes.

Investors will be looking not only for strong results, but for reassurance that growth engines such as artificial intelligence spending can justify lofty valuations.

Artificial intelligence under the microscope

While the Magnificent Seven’s grip on day-to-day market direction has loosened, their influence remains significant.

Management commentary on AI demand, data centre investment and the path to profitability will be closely scrutinised.

A defining theme this earnings season is whether companies are beginning to see tangible returns from heavy investment in AI infrastructure.

Concerns that vast spending on data centres and related technologies would fail to deliver profits weighed on tech stocks late last year, after AI had powered much of the bull market’s earlier gains.

Brad Gastwirth, global head of research at Circular Technology, believes the tone may be shifting.

“This earnings season feels meaningfully different,” he said in a Wall Street Journal report, adding that companies are likely to emphasise growing AI pipelines, strong backlog visibility and tight supply chains as signs of durable growth rather than pulling back guidance due to macro uncertainty.

Others remain more cautious.

Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned in the report that AI overspending and overhype remain risks, particularly given how close valuations and capital expenditure levels are to past peaks.

For now, she said, scepticism around the AI trade appears to be driving a healthy rotation and improved risk management within US equities.

Beyond Mag 7, earnings season to test market rotation, valuation

Beyond the headline tech names, just over 100 companies are set to report fourth-quarter results next week, offering fresh guidance on near-term prospects.

Their commentary could either reinforce or challenge the recent rotation away from technology and growth stocks toward more traditional value sectors.

The S&P 500, coming off its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, is up about 1% so far this year.

Valuations, however, remain elevated, with the index trading above 22 times expected earnings — well above its long-term average of 15.9.

“The earnings bar had better be met,” said Chris Galipeau, senior market strategist at Franklin Templeton, in a Reuters report, noting that stretched valuations leave little room for disappointment.

Federal Reserve decision looms

Earnings will share the spotlight with monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank cut rates by a quarter percentage point at each of its final three meetings of 2025, and futures markets are pricing in at least one more cut later this year, according to LSEG data.

Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, expects an extended pause.

“With the fed funds rate close to neutral, easing labour market risks and inflation having peaked, there is little urgency to move,” he said.

However, the meeting is likely to be overshadowed by questions about the Fed’s political independence.

It follows reports that Fed chair Jerome Powell faced legal threats from the Trump administration — claims Powell dismissed as a pretext for pressuring the central bank into deeper rate cuts.

Trump is also weighing a nominee to replace Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, adding another layer of uncertainty to the policy outlook.

Alongside the Fed decision, investors will parse key jobs and inflation data and closely watch Treasury auctions totalling $183 billion, which could offer an early read on concerns around a potential “Sell America” trade.

Geopolitics remain a wildcard

Yet geopolitics remains an ever-present risk. Any escalation related to Greenland, tariffs, or other policy shocks could quickly sour sentiment.

“If the Greenland situation were to go off the rails, combined with tariff threats, that would certainly dent confidence and put markets under pressure,” Galipeau said.

As markets head into a dense and consequential week, investors are bracing for a stretch where earnings credibility, central bank resolve and political stability will all be tested at once.

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Gold is knocking on the $5,000-per-ounce door after a historic 66% rally in 2025, driven by geopolitical shocks, a weakening dollar, and relentless central bank buying of the precious metal.

The impressive rally has investors reconsidering a critical decision: should they own bullion directly or buy exposure through exchange-traded funds?

The answer depends entirely on what gold means to you in your portfolio.​​

Spot gold touched nearly $4,987/oz this week, marking an all-time high. The rally has fueled unprecedented demand.

Record-breaking ETF inflows of $89 billion in 2025 signal that investors are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic monetary asset, not just a cyclical hedge.

Yet for those preferring tangible ownership, physical premiums have created new complications.

In India, gold premiums surged to their highest level in a decade, with dealers charging an extra $112 per ounce on top of spot prices as investors rushed to buy ahead of an expected import duty increase in the February budget.​​

Why gold is charging toward $5,000

The macro forces underpinning gold’s ascent remain intact. Geopolitical uncertainty keeps investors defensive.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further in 2026, which makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.

Most importantly, central banks continue accumulating gold at levels not seen in decades.

Emerging market diversification into bullion reflects a deliberate shift away from dollar dependency, a trend analysts expect to persist.​

Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, called this shift “a new geomacro regime” where gold functions as a strategic monetary asset amid fiscal dominance risks and geopolitical fragmentation.

She projects gold could average $4,500 per ounce in 2026, with upside scenarios reaching $5,400.

JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva frames gold as their “highest conviction long,” seeing it hitting $5,055 by late-2026 and potentially $6,000 by 2028.​

Physical vs. paper: Trade-offs and who should choose which

When buying physical gold, coins, or bars, expect to pay a retail premium of 5 to 10% above the spot price.

Storage and insurance add another layer of costs, typically running 0.5 to 1% annually or more, depending on security arrangements.

If you buy jewelry, the making charges add another 5 to 20% non-recoverable cost.

In India, physical purchases also carry a 3% sales tax. The upside is complete counterparty risk elimination and tangible ownership.​

Gold ETFs like GLD operate differently.

Expense ratios run just 0.25 to 0.50% annually, often cheaper than physical storage and insurance combined.

Trading occurs instantly during market hours. There’s no making charge, no GST burden, and no purity verification concerns.

The trade-off is that you own shares in a fund, not gold itself, introducing minor counterparty risk (though fully backed funds minimize this).​

For investors buying gold as an emergency hedge or sovereignty insurance, allocating 5 to 10% of portfolio weight to physical gold in a secured vault makes sense.

For portfolio diversifiers seeking pure liquid exposure, ETFs win on cost efficiency and convenience.

The decision comes down to your objective. If you’re hedging against systemic breakdown, hold some physical.

If you’re building diversification, go with ETFs. Either way, at $5,000 and climbing, ensure your allocation reflects your risk tolerance and time horizon.

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