The Nikkei 225 Index retreated by over 1.2% on Tuesday, continuing a downtrend that has been going on in the past few days. It retreated to a low of ¥52,930, down from the year-to-date high of ¥54,515. This retreat may continue if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a highly hawkish tone as Citi expects.

Citi expects three BoJ rate hikes this year

The Nikkei 225 Index dropped by over 1.2%, mirroring the performance of other top global indices that slipped amid the rising geopolitical issues between the United States and Europe.

It also retreated after a report by Citigroup predicted that the BoJ would maintain a highly hawkish tone this year. The bank expects that the bank will deliver three rate hikes this year, a move that would push the benchmark rate from 0.75% to 1.50%.

Citi sees the bank hiking rates this high because of the deteriorating Japanese yen, which has been in a freefall in the past few months. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to a multi-year high of 159.47, up by nearly 14% from its lowest level in 2025. A Citi analyst said:

“Put simply, the yen’s weakness is being driven by negative real interest rates. The BOJ has no choice other than to address this if it wants to reverse the exchange rate’s direction.”

The hawkish BoJ view has led to a surge in Japan bond yields. Data shows that the ten-year yield jumped to 2.32%, its highest level in decades and much higher than the pandemic low of minus 0.27%. The five-year yield has jumped to 1.70%, its highest point in years, while the 40-year soared to 4%

In most cases, the stock market tends to underperform when a central bank is highly hawkish and when bond yields are on a strong upward trajectory. Indeed, there are chances that Japanese institutions will start owning investments from abroad into fixed-income assets at home. This view will accelerate if the five-year and ten-year yield moves above inflation. 

Japanese election ahead

Meanwhile, there is still uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Japanese election scheduled for February. Sanae Takaichi called the election so that she can get a proper mandate. 

At the same time, her election pledges, including suspending a 8% food levy risks widening the fiscal gap and leading to higher bond yields. Indeed, yields have jumped sharply since she unveiled her $135 billion stimulus package.

On the positive side, Japan stocks may benefit from the upcoming Supreme Court decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs. Most analysts believe that the court will decide to end these tariffs, a move that will benefit Japanese companies that sell to the United States.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of ¥48,160 in November to the current ¥52,990. 

It is now aiming to retest the key support level at ¥52,656, its highest swing on November 4. A break-and-retest is one of the most common continuation signs in technical analysis.

Therefore, the index will likely remain in a tight range in the coming days and then resume the upward trend.

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Pop Mart’s share price jumped by over 8% on Tuesday, its best performance in five months, as investors cheered its new share buyback program. It rose to an intraday high of H$ 198, up substantially from this month’s low of H$174. It remains 42% below its highest point this year.

Pop Mart share price jumps on a new buyback

The main reason why the Pop Mart stock price rose is that the company announced a big share buyback. It repurchased shares worth $32 million, its first buyback since February 2024.

The share buyback is a sign that the management believes that the company is undervalued. It is also meant to boost the stock performance after it crashed by over 40% from its highest point in 2025.

Analysts believe that the company has more resources to deploy to boost its shareholder returns this year, thanks to the robust Labubu sales in 2025.

Labubu challenges remain 

Pop Mart, a popular toy manufacturer, made headlines because of Labubu, a stuffed toy that went viral globally, leading to a surge in sales and its stock price.

The most recent results showed that its revenue surged by 205% in the last financial year to over RMB 13 billion. Its gross profit rose by 234% to RMB 9.76 billion, while the net profit jumped to RMB 4.5 billion, with its net profit margin rising to 33.7% from the previous 21.2%.

The strong revenue growth helped to boost its balance sheet, with the total assets rising to RMB 21.3 billion.

However, the main challenge that the company faces is that there are signs that the Labubu craze is fading. One of these signs is that its sales were disappointing during last year’s Black Friday event in the United States.

Another report by YipitData showed that Labubu’s North American revenue growth slowed to 424% in the quarter to December, much lower than in the previous quarters.

As such, there is a likelihood that Labubu will prove to be a fad similar to Beanie Babies, which became popular in the 1990s only for its popularity to crash.

At the same time, there are lingering concerns on whether its push to the entertainment industry will pay off over time. It opened Pop Land, a large theme park in Shanghai, and is reportedly working with Sony on a Labubu movie.

Also, the company is working on developing other characters and expanding its business abroad. Some analysts believe that all these initiatives will help the stock to bounce back this year. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that:

“Some profit-taking and short-term correction are normal, but pushing the stock down to trough valuation appears ‘overly preemptive’ — and unjustified.”

Pop Mart stock price technical analysis 

Pop-Mart stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Pop Mart stock price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months.

It formed a giant head-and-shoulders pattern whose neckline was at $233. A H&S is one of the most popular bearish patterns.

The index has formed a descending channel, and the current jump was meant to retest the upper side. It has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues falling in the near term and then rebound later this year. If this happens, it may drop to the key support level at $150.

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Asian markets opened weaker on Tuesday as renewed trade-war concerns weighed on risk sentiment, while government bond markets in Japan and the United States signaled rising investor unease over fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty.

Developments in China’s consumption policy outlook and fresh remarks from US President Donald Trump on Greenland added to global market jitters.

Asian markets hit by trade-war concerns

Asian stocks fell broadly as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions linked to US policy signals.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.24%, moving further away from the record highs reached last week.

Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures dropped around 1% in early Asian trading.

The dollar remained under pressure, while US Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.265%, its highest level since early September.

Investors sought safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc and gold as concerns resurfaced about a potential “Sell America” trade, which involves selling US stocks, the dollar, and Treasuries.

The latest bout of volatility was triggered by President Trump’s renewed threats tied to trade and his push to take control of Greenland, raising fears of further tensions with Europe.

MUFG’s Europe economist Henry Cook cautioned against overreaction, saying last year had “taught us not to overreact to Trump’s threats,” but added that uncertainty around tariffs is likely to persist.

“Even if there is de-escalation this episode will still cause many to doubt the credibility of any deal with Trump, and so tariff uncertainty will remain elevated,” Cook said.

Citi downgraded European equities, noting that heightened tariff uncertainty weakens the near-term investment case and clouds prospects for earnings growth in 2026. European futures pointed to a slightly weaker open.

China planning new measures to spur consumption

China’s state planner said the government is preparing new policies for the 2026–2030 period aimed at boosting domestic consumption and addressing what officials described as “prominent” supply-demand imbalances.

“The issue of having strong supply, but weak demand in the current economic operation is indeed a prominent problem,” Wang Changlin, vice head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told a press conference.

While officials did not provide detailed measures, they said the services sector would become a central focus.

China’s economy grew 5% last year, meeting the government’s target, supported largely by strong exports that offset weak domestic consumption.

Industrial output rose 5.9% in 2025, compared with 3.7% growth in retail sales, highlighting the imbalance.

“The services sector has now become a key focus in efforts to expand domestic demand,” said Zhou Chen, an NDRC official, adding that sectors such as elderly care, healthcare, and leisure offer significant growth potential.

China has also deployed 62.5 billion yuan ($8.98 billion) in special treasury bond funds to support its consumer trade-in scheme for appliances and new-energy vehicles.

Japan bond yields surge on fiscal concerns

Japanese government bonds sold off sharply as investors reacted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposal to suspend the sales tax on food for two years.

The plan is estimated to cost about ¥5 trillion ($31.6 billion) per year, raising concerns about how it would be funded.

Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose to 4%, the highest since the maturity was introduced in 2007, while the 10-year yield climbed above 2.3%, its highest level since 1999.

“It remains highly uncertain whether the consumption tax cut can be implemented without relying on government bond issuance,” said Ataru Okumura, a senior interest-rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

“Markets are becoming more conscious of fiscal expansion,” said Takuya Hoshino, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“They are finding it harder to buy when they worry about a possible acceleration of expansionary fiscal policy going forward.”

Masahiko Loo of State Street Investment Management said, “Ultra-long JGB yields are being pushed higher not only by the structural supply–demand imbalance but also by a fresh re-pricing of term and risk premium as markets absorb a more expansionary fiscal stance and persistent inflation.”

Trump continues Greenland rhetoric

President Trump renewed his push to take control of Greenland, dismissing opposition from European leaders and adding to geopolitical unease ahead of his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We have to have it. They have to have this done. They can’t protect us,” Trump told reporters, adding of European resistance, “I don’t think they’re going to push back too much.”

President Donald Trump unsettled NATO allies over the weekend after threatening to levy tariffs on several European members of the alliance if he fails to secure control over Greenland.

The remarks drew sharp criticism from European Union leaders, with French President Emmanuel Macron urging the bloc to consider deploying its strongest retaliatory trade mechanism.

Trump also criticized Macron for declining an invitation to participate in a proposed “Board of Peace” and floated the possibility of imposing tariffs of up to 200% on champagne and wine imports.

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US President Donald Trump has warned of a 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes in a sharp escalation linked to his proposed global peace initiative.

The move comes after reports said France might not join Trump’s newly announced Board of Peace, a platform aimed at resolving international conflicts through coordinated diplomacy.

The president tied the tariff threat directly to French President Emmanuel Macron’s position.

Trump suggested that imposing steep duties would compel France to cooperate. He said Macron would end up joining the board but insisted the choice was entirely his.

France is currently expected to decline the invitation. According to a Reuters report, the country has no intention of participating at this time, despite receiving formal outreach from the US administration.

Trump expands peace plan beyond Gaza

Trump first introduced the Board of Peace in September during his remarks on ending the Gaza war.

But recent invitations sent to about 60 nations show a wider ambition. The board would now address global conflict resolution, not just the Middle East or any one specific region.

A draft charter circulated by the US administration to roughly 60 countries would require members to contribute $1 billion in cash to secure membership lasting longer than three years, according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

This condition appears to have caused hesitation among invited states and policymakers.

Global response cautious

Reactions over the weekend reflected concern from diplomats.

Some expressed worry that the initiative could interfere with or duplicate the work of the United Nations, which already oversees international peacekeeping efforts and conflict mediation in critical zones.

Governments are assessing the proposal carefully.

While some may consider joining, the financial and political implications of the membership terms have slowed momentum among key allies and neutral states alike.

Putin also receives invitation

On Monday, Trump confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been invited to take part in the initiative.

No response has been announced, but the invitation adds a new dimension to the proposed board’s potential makeup and influence.

Meanwhile, Trump dismissed concerns over Macron’s refusal, suggesting the French leader may not remain in office for long.

He brushed off the rejection, stating that Macron did not have to join, but would do so once the tariffs took effect and pressure mounted.

The tariff threat targets one of France’s key exports.

French wines and champagnes enjoy strong sales in the US market, and a steep increase in duties could have a wide economic impact.

It also raises the stakes in what is shaping up to be a geopolitical standoff over Trump’s international proposal.

It remains unclear how the board would operate alongside existing diplomatic bodies, or whether it would gain enough support to formally launch in the coming months.

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Wise share price rose sharply on Tuesday after the British fintech giant published encouraging financial results and maintained its focus on executing a dual-listing. It rose by nearly 13%, reaching its highest level since November 25.

Wise business is doing well despite rising competition 

Wise, formerly known as TransferWise, is a top British company that helps users to send money abroad. It also runs a platform that enables customers to have multi-currency bank accounts, making it popular among companies with international workers.

The financial results published today showed that its business continued doing well in the third quarter of 2026, even as it reduced its costs. It also continued adding thousands of companies during the quarter, with its business account users rising by 25% to 542,000.

Wise served over 11 million customers during the quarter, with its newly launched travel card in India having over 75,000 customers within a month. Additionally, Wise account deposits jumped by 34% to over £27.5 billion.

Wise’s underlying income rose by 21% to £424 million, a trend that the management expects will accelerate in the future. Additionally, the management expects to complete the dual-listing in the United States in the second half of this year. The CEO said:

“We expect to complete our dual listing in the first half of 2026, which will further increase our profile in the US as we remain focused on accelerating global growth and becoming the network for the world’s money.”

Wise expects to hit the profit-before-tax margin of between 13% and 16% this year. Additionally, the company is aiming to receive a national banking charter in the United States as it seeks to partner with over 4,000 banks in the country.

Still, the Wise share price remains much lower than last year’s high of 1,223p. This retreat happened because of the rising costs as the company continues hiring, with its US employees rising to over 700.

The company is also facing substantial competition from other fintech companies like Remitly, Revolut, TransferGo, OFX, and PayPal.

Most importantly, the biggest competition will likely come from the stablecoin industry, which is seeing strong growth. Stablecoins are widely known for their low costs, with most transactions costing cents to complete.

Wise share price technical analysis 

Wise stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Wise stock price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months, moving from a high of 1,223p in June last year to a low of 794p. 

The decline mirrored the performance of other fintech companies like PayPal, Block, and Fiserv.

Wise then bounced back and moved to a high of 943p, its highest level since November 13. It moved above the important resistance level at 904p, its highest swing in December last year.

The stock has moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 898p and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues to rise, with the next key target being at 1,011p, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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Indian shares fell to their lowest levels in more than three months on Tuesday, as a broad-based sell-off driven by weak corporate earnings, global trade concerns and sustained foreign fund outflows rattled investor confidence.

The benchmark Nifty 50 slipped 1.38% to close at 25,232.5, while the BSE Sensex declined 1.28% to 82,180.47, both marking their weakest closing levels in over three months.

The sell-off was accompanied by a sharp spike in volatility, with the India VIX jumping nearly 8%, signalling expectations of continued market turbulence in the near term.

Broad-based sell-off hits large and small caps

The decline was not limited to frontline indices.

Broader markets bore the brunt of the selling, with small-cap and mid-cap indices tumbling 2.9% and 2.6% respectively.

The small-cap index closed at its lowest level in eight months, while mid-caps slipped to a three-month low, reflecting growing risk aversion among investors.

Market breadth turned decisively negative, with all 16 major sectoral indices ending in the red.

Only 28 stocks in the Nifty 500 managed to close higher, underlining the intensity of the sell-off.

“Valuations are being reset,” said Dharmesh Kant, head of equity research at Chola Securities.

He noted that while a few companies stood out, most Nifty 50 firms reporting December-quarter earnings had fallen short of expectations.

IT and heavyweight stocks drag indices lower

Information technology stocks led the losses, with the IT index sliding 2.1% to become the worst-performing sector of the day.

Analysts said margins across the sector have come under pressure following the implementation of new labour codes, denting profitability.

LTIMindtree plunged 6.7% after reporting a decline in quarterly profit, while Wipro fell 2.5%, extending losses from the previous session on a weak fourth-quarter outlook.

Heavyweight stocks also weighed on the benchmarks.

Reliance Industries dropped 1.4%, extending Monday’s decline after the company posted third-quarter earnings below market expectations.

ICICI Bank, another index major, also disappointed investors with weaker-than-expected results.

Global trade worries and foreign selling deepen gloom; budget adds to jitters

Sentiment remained fragile amid global uncertainties, particularly after US President Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs on eight European Union members, reviving fears of a wider trade confrontation.

At home, continued selling by foreign institutional investors added to the pressure.

Overseas investors have sold Indian equities worth around $3 billion so far in January, marking the heaviest monthly outflows since August.

The Nifty 50 has ended lower in nine of the 13 trading sessions this month.

Market participants are also cautious ahead of the federal budget on February 1, with high expectations that the government will announce measures to boost economic growth, job creation and consumer demand.

While policymakers are expected to strike a balance between growth and fiscal discipline, concerns that tighter fiscal consolidation could curb capital expenditure have unsettled investors.

“Continued selling by foreign investors and the absence of a broad-based rally ahead of the Union Budget have kept investors on edge,” said Aamar Deo Singh, senior vice president at Angel One.

Near term volatility to continue; analysts assess technical levels

Analysts say volatility in the market is likely to continue in the near-term.

“The volatility in the market is likely to continue in the near-term till some clarity emerges regarding the US-Europe standoff on Greenland tariffs. Since both sides have hardened their positions, the uncertainty will continue for some time,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Technical analysts warned that the near-term outlook remains weak unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

According to Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, the 25,370–25,400 zone now acts as a critical resistance area for the Nifty.

“As long as the index trades below 25,400, broader sentiment is likely to remain weak,” Shah said.

He added that a failure to hold support around 25,080 could push the index towards 24,900 in the short term.

Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said bears had regained control amid ongoing transatlantic trade tensions.

Indicators remain in bearish territory and are nearing oversold levels, with the index drifting towards its 200-day moving average.

Immediate support is seen around 25,100–25,150, where a short-term pullback could emerge if the level holds.

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The Hang Seng Index pulled back on Monday, reaching a low of H$26,628, down from this year’s high of H$27,165, after China published the latest GDP data and other macro data. It remains much higher than last year’s low of H$19,220.

China’s GDP growth rate hits target, but slows in Q4

The Hang Seng Index and other Chinese indices remained on edge on Monday as investors digested the latest macro data, which showed that the economic growth hit the 5% target in 2025, even as it faced the challenge of the United States tariffs. This growth was higher than what many analysts, including World Bank, predicted.

Data published by the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) showed that the House Price Index (HPI) retreated by 2.7% in December after slowing by 2.4% in the previous month.. China’s housing sector has never recovered since the collapse of top companies like Evergrande.

More data showed that the retail sales growth eased to 0.9% in December from 1.3% in November, while industrial production rose by 5.2% during the month.

As a result, the economy expanded by 4.5%  in the fourth quarter, a big deceleration from the previous 4.8%.  This deceleration was mostly because of a drop in fixed asset investments as Beijing moved to clear hidden debt and reduce excess competition.

Another red flag for the country was that deflation continued for 11 quarters, while birth rates plunged to the lowest level in years.

Still, the country managed to hit its 5% annual target last year, and Beijing expects that the growth will accelerate later this year.

China’s growth was mostly driven by trade, which accelerated as more foreigners bought its products. While exports to the United States dropped in 2025, trends to other regions like Africa and South America surged during the year. Its trade surplus jumped to $1.2 trillion during the year.

Top gainers and laggards in the HSI Index 

The Hang Seng Index retreated after the latest Chinese data as concerns about geopolitics remained following Donald Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on some key NATO allies.

Most companies in the Hang Seng were in the red on Monday, with Wuxi Biologics falling by 5%. Innovent Biologics, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sino Biopharmaceutical, and WuXi AppTec were the top laggards as they plunged by over 4% on Monday.

The other top laggards in the Hang Seng Index were companies like Zhongsheng Group, New Oriental Education, Alibaba Group, Kuaishou Technology, and China Resources Land, which fell by over 2.6%.

On the other hand, Li Ning, China Mengniu Dairy, Baidu, and China Hongkiao were the best gainers.

Hang Seng Index technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Hang Seng Index has hit a brick wall at H$27,165, its highest level in October and November last year, and in January this year. It has struggled to move above that level, a sign that bulls are hesitant to place bids.

The index has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the most likely Hang Seng Index forecast is neutral for now. 

More upside will be confirmed if it moves above the key resistance level at H$27,164. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the strong pivot, reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at H$27,343.

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Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is broadly expected to report a strong quarter on Jan. 20, driven largely by the final season of “Stranger Things” that pulled back lapsed subscribers and kept engagement high throughout the holiday period.

Consensus is for the streaming giant to earn 55 cents on a per-share basis in its Q4 – up an exciting 28% year-on-year. Its revenue is also seen climbing to $12 billion in the fourth quarter.

Yet, for investors that have been wary of the uncertainty surrounding NFLX’s attempt to purchase Warner Bros. Discovery assets already, what’s more important is whether this company can sustain momentum now that the Stranger Things tailwind is over.

At the time of writing, Netflix shares are down some 33% versus their 52-week high as investors wait and watch how the WBD situation develops, especially now that Paramount has sued Warner Bros. Discovery for picking NFLX’s bid over its own, which it asserts is actually “superior”.

What’s next for Netflix stock after Stranger Things?

According to Wedbush’s senior analyst Alicia Reese, however, the quarterly strength investors will likely see from Netflix on the coming Tuesday is far from temporary, or driven mostly by Stranger Things only.

Wedbush’s recent survey confirms subscriber numbers remained steady in the fourth quarter even after that TV show ended, she told CNBC in a recent interview.

In fact, a significant number of subscribers who had been away for at least three months “returned” to NFLX in recent months – and not just for Stranger Things.

Many of them returned to catch up on other buzzy titles like “Bridgerton” or the upcoming “WWE” content on the streaming platform, Reese added.

The Wedbush analyst emphasized that Netflix’s massive content library ensures quarter-on-quarter engagement, making it less vulnerable to single-title fatigue.

In her view, the company’s content pipeline and subscriber loyalty point to a durable growth story, which warrants buying NFLX stock at current levels.

Are NFLX shares still a money maker?

Alicia Reese continues to see Netflix stock as a “money maker with or without the WBD assets”. On the CNBC interview, she especially pointed to the massive advertising opportunity that remains overlooked by the market.

Reese described Netflix’s ad load as “the lowest of any streamer or of course any linear TV,” which makes the experience far less intrusive for viewers.

According to Wedbush’s survey data, retention among ad-tier subscribers has been improving each quarter, with fewer customers switching away. “People don’t mind,” Reese said, adding that Netflix has room to slightly increase ad load without alienating users.

The profitability of this tier is already evident, and advertisers are flocking to the platform thanks to Netflix’s data leverage and partnerships with Amazon and other demand-side platforms.

For Netflix, the ad tier is not just a side experiment – it’s becoming a “core driver” of sustainable revenue growth.

And if the Warner Brothers deal does go through, she expects production to ramp up across both studios, further enhancing Netflix’s ad leverage.

All in all, for investors willing to look past short-term noise, Reese said Netflix stock remains worth owning in 2026.

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China’s economy lost momentum toward the end of 2025 even as it met the government’s annual growth target, underscoring an increasingly uneven expansion driven by exports and industrial output while domestic demand continued to lag.

Gross domestic product grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

That marked a deceleration from 4.8% growth in the third quarter.

For the full year, GDP expanded 5%, matching Beijing’s target of “around 5%” and confirming an estimate previously given by President Xi Jinping.

Chinese onshore stocks edged up slightly after the data release, while government bonds and the yuan were little changed, reflecting markets’ tempered response to growth that met expectations but showed signs of strain beneath the surface.

Domestic demand drags on growth

While industrial production remained resilient, key indicators of domestic demand deteriorated more than forecast at the end of the year.

Retail sales rose just 0.9% in December from a year earlier, missing expectations for 1.2% growth and slowing from 1.3% in November.

Fixed-asset investment contracted 3.8% in 2025, worse than economists’ forecasts, as the prolonged real estate downturn deepened.

Consumer spending and business investment have been weighed down by a weak jobs market and falling home prices.

The urban unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% in December, offering little sign of improvement in labor conditions.

“Despite achieving the 5% growth target, China’s economy actually posted weaker on-year growth one quarter after another in 2025, which shows domestic demand is still weak,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group.

“The most important thing is not the headline growth, but whether China can break away from the current two-speed growth.”

Exports and industry prop up activity

Manufacturing and exports continued to provide crucial support to the economy in 2025, helping Beijing avoid large-scale stimulus despite mounting headwinds.

Industrial output rose 5.2% in December, beating expectations and accelerating from the previous month.

Net exports contributed about a third of economic growth last year, according to NBS head Kang Yi, the highest share since 1997.

China also posted a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion, driven by strong shipments to non-US markets as exporters sought to diversify amid global trade frictions.

“Plunging investment and weak household consumption have made the Chinese economy increasingly reliant on exports to power growth, a situation that is untenable for China as well as the world economy,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University.

Policy challenges and demographic pressures

Looking ahead, economists anticipate that the uneven growth pattern will persist into 2026.

Beijing has signaled a greater willingness to support consumers, but remains cautious about unleashing massive stimulus due to concerns over local government debt.

The outlook is further complicated by deepening demographic challenges.

China’s birthrate fell to 5.6 births per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest since 1949, while total population declined for a fourth straight year.

A shrinking workforce and aging population threaten long-term growth and add pressure to the pension system, even as policymakers roll out incentives to encourage higher fertility.

As China aims to become a moderately developed economy by 2035, policymakers face the difficult task of sustaining growth while rebalancing the economy toward stronger domestic demand in an increasingly protectionist global environment.

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Crypto mining hardware maker Canaan Inc. has received a warning from Nasdaq after its share price fell below the exchange’s minimum requirement, putting the company at risk of delisting unless it can regain its stock price within the next six months.

The Nasdaq contacted Canaan on Wednesday to notify the company that it was no longer meeting listing standards, as its shares had closed below $1 for 30 consecutive business days.

Canaan disclosed the notice in a statement on Friday, noting that it now has 180 days — until July 13 — to bring its closing bid price back above the threshold.

To regain compliance, the company’s shares must close at or above $1 for at least 10 consecutive trading days.

Canaan’s stock last closed above $1 on Nov. 28.

On Friday, shares ended trading at $0.79, down 3.8% on the day and roughly 63% lower over the past 12 months.

Nasdaq warning highlights prolonged share price slump

The warning comes amid sustained pressure on Canaan’s stock, which has not traded above $3 since December 2024.

The company, which manufactures specialized hardware used for Bitcoin mining, has faced a challenging environment as parts of the crypto mining industry adjust to changing market dynamics.

Canaan said the Nasdaq warned it was not in compliance with listing rules because its shares’ closing bid price had remained below $1 for an extended period.

Under Nasdaq rules, failure to meet the minimum bid price requirement can lead to delisting if corrective action is not taken within the allotted timeframe.

If the company fails to regain compliance by July 13, Nasdaq staff could determine that Canaan is subject to delisting, which would typically result in the stock moving to over-the-counter markets.

Such moves have historically made shares harder to trade and often led to further price declines.

Potential extension and reverse stock split option

Canaan said that if it does not meet the requirement by the July deadline, Nasdaq staff could still agree to grant it additional time to raise its share price.

The company added that it could apply for an extension that would include agreeing to “effecting a reverse stock split if necessary.”

A reverse stock split reduces the number of outstanding shares, which can mechanically lift the share price, though it does not change a company’s underlying valuation.

Such measures are commonly used by companies seeking to regain compliance with exchange listing rules.

The company has previously experienced short-term increases in its share price tied to business developments.

In October, Canaan said that a US-based company had bought 50,000 of its latest-generation “Avalon A15 Pro” mining rigs, marking its largest order in more than three years.

That announcement sent Canaan’s stock surging by 25%.

Broader trend of compliance pressure on crypto-linked firms

Canaan’s situation reflects a broader pattern among crypto-related and other small-cap companies facing listing challenges.

In December, Bitcoin treasury company Kindly MD received a similar Nasdaq notice after its shares traded below $1 for 30 consecutive days.

Nasdaq gave Kindly MD until June to regain compliance. Its shares closed at $0.46 on Friday and last traded above $1 in late October.

In another case, Nasdaq delisted biotech firm Windtree Therapeutics in August after it failed to meet compliance requirements.

Windtree had established a BNB treasury a month earlier, but its shares fell 77% on the day Nasdaq announced the delisting, as investors rushed to exit ahead of the move.

For Canaan, the next six months will be critical as it seeks to stabilize its share price and avoid removal from the Nasdaq exchange.

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