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The Barclays, NatWest, and Lloyds share prices plunged on Friday, dragging the blue-chip FTSE 100 Index. NatWest stock plunged to 512p, down by almost 10% from its highest point this year. 

Windfall tax proposal drags Barclays, NatWest, Lloyds share prices

Lloyds share price plunged by over 7.2% from the year-to-date high, in line with our recent forecast. That prediction identified a giant rising wedge chart pattern on the daily timeframe.

Barclays tumbled to a low of 355p, down by over 6.17% from the YTD high. Other large bank stocks like HSBC and Standard Chartered also slumped. 

The main catalyst for the ongoing plunge is the renewed calls for Rachael Reeves to implement a windfall tax on these companies for benefiting in the high interest rate era.

The current pressure came from the Institute for Public Policy Research, which noted that these banks had benefited from state subsidies from the Bank of England’s quantitative easing that inflated prices. 

It is unclear whether Reeves, who faces a big hole in the budget will follow through the proposal, which the think tank argues would raise £32.5 billion in the next five years. It noted that the levy would even leave Reeves with an extra $3.2 billion. 

Bank have always opposed a windfall tax arguing that it would make the country’s financial sector unattractive. Their representative said:

“Banks based here already pay both a corporation tax surcharge and a bank levy. Adding another tax would make the UK less internationally competitive and run counter to the government’s aim of supporting the financial services sector.”

UK bank stocks have boomed

The call for a windfall tax comes at a time when the UK bank stocks have boomed this year. Lloyds share price has jumped to the highest point since 2007. 

Barclays stock peaked at 380p this year, the highest level since August 2007 and 515% above the lowest level this year. NatWest, which owns Coutts and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), crossed 500p, and moved to the highest level since 2008. 

These banks have all benefited from the era of high interest rates, which has helped them to buy back their stock and boost their dividends. 

The most recent results showed that Lloyds Bank’s net interest income rose to £6.65 billion in the year’s first half to £6.65 billion, up by 5% from last year’s £6.3 billion. 

Barclay’s net interest income rose to £7 billion from £6.1 billion, while NatWest’s figure rose by 13% to £6.1 billion. Still, analysts predict that the era of this profit boom may be ending as the Bank of England (BoE) slashes interest rates.

It is unclear whether the ongoing slump of top stocks of companies like Lloyds, Barclays, and NatWest will continue. However, the stocks could rebound if Reeves rules out windfall taxes.

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Quantum computing stocks surged this week, driven by recent major partnerships and a growing shift from speculative hype to tangible commercial prospects.

The sector’s momentum was fueled by announcements from market leaders like IBM, AMD, and Rigetti Computing, signalling that quantum technology is entering a new phase of growth and institutional adoption.

With notable analyst upgrades and increased funding, investors are increasingly confident that quantum computing is poised for more than just experimental breakthroughs.

Tech giants drive quantum computing industry momentum

The driving force behind the recent surge in quantum stocks is a wave of strategic alliances between well-established technology firms and specialised quantum players.

The headline partnership between International Business Machines (IBM) and semiconductor powerhouse Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) exemplifies this trend.

IBM and AMD have announced plans to co-develop hybrid supercomputing architectures that integrate AMD processors—CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs—with IBM’s quantum systems, aiming to create new quantum-classical workflows tailored for commercial applications.

This collaboration highlights the growing institutional confidence in quantum hardware and software becoming commercially viable in the near-to-medium term.

AMD’s stock jumped nearly 3% after the announcement, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the company’s expanded role in the quantum ecosystem.

IBM’s CEO Arvind Krishna emphasised the transformative nature of quantum computing, stating it will “simulate the natural world and represent information in an entirely new way.” The partnership is expected to accelerate progress towards fault-tolerant quantum computing by the end of the decade.

Behind the joint announcement, other tech giants are reinforcing their presence in quantum computing.

Microsoft continues to expand its ‘Quantum Safe’ initiative focused on cybersecurity applications, while NVIDIA has launched a Quantum-AI research center aimed at exploring the intersection of quantum computing and artificial intelligence.

Quantum computing stocks rally on positive analyst sentiment

Market sentiment around quantum computing companies has notably improved, reflecting the industry’s advancement from pure experimental technology demonstrations toward commercially meaningful products and services.

Prominent stock commentators, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, have revised their outlooks on companies like Rigetti Computing, recently describing the stock’s upside potential more positively than before.

Rigetti itself has become a major focus this week after announcing a collaboration with Montana State University to open a new Quantum Core Research and Education Center equipped with a 9-qubit Rigetti Novera quantum processing unit.

The announcement pushed Rigetti shares up nearly 9% intraday, marking one of the largest gains among public quantum companies.

Other quantum-related stocks such as IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. also posted gains ranging from 3% to 4%, continuing a trend of steady share price appreciation.

Significantly, D-Wave’s stock has surged over 210% in the past six months, underscoring growing investor appetite for companies with commercial quantum hardware offerings.

Funding dynamics and commercial order growth highlight sector maturity

Investment data underscore an evolution in quantum funding patterns.

According to market reports, investment in quantum technology during the first five months of 2025 has already reached 70% of all funding in 2024, despite fewer deals overall. This indicates a shift toward larger, more strategic investments in companies with promising roadmaps.

Commercial purchase orders for quantum computers totalled $854 million in 2024, a 70% increase from the prior year.

This underscores increasing market demand for quantum systems that can solve real-world problems, extending beyond early-stage research labs. However, analysts caution that while progress is significant, many quantum firms are still pre-revenue or rely on limited commercial deployments, making valuations speculative.

The shift in focus from distant future potential to nearer-term commercialisation represents a critical phase for the quantum industry.

As quantum computing players expand partnerships with established tech giants and deliver incremental milestones, the market is responding with rising valuations and heightened investor interest.

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Dow futures plunged 160 points on Friday as investors looked ahead to the release of the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

The report could influence whether rates move in September. The slight pullback comes after the Dow hit a record high yesterday, showing both the market’s confidence in the economy and its nerves over global challenges and choppy earnings.

Traders are treading carefully, taking some profits while waiting for fresh economic signals.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. Traders are zeroed in on July’s PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Forecasts call for a 2.6% annual gain, the same as June. The release will be key for September’s Fed meeting, with futures now tilting toward a rate cut.

The question is whether inflation looks soft enough to give policymakers cover to ease, especially with the job market showing cracks and global jitters hanging over sentiment.

2. Global stock markets kicked off the day going in different directions. Chinese stocks actually bounced back as their tech companies showed some staying power, but European and Japanese markets slipped a bit.

Everyone’s still trying to figure out what Trump’s tariff threats actually mean for business.

The tariffs are becoming a real headache. American companies with operations overseas are seeing their profits take a hit, and supply chains that took decades to build are getting scrambled.

It’s not just about moving factories around anymore as entire business strategies are getting rewritten.

3. Tech stocks dragged US futures lower, led by a nearly 13% drop in Marvell after the chipmaker warned on data center demand.

The weak outlook rippled across AI and semiconductor names, cutting into the sector’s recent record-setting run. Marvell’s caution has investors questioning how long the AI-driven rally can last, even with strong results from Nvidia and other heavyweights.

4. Before the market even opened, some big names were already making waves with their latest earnings reports.

Dell got hammered, dropping 6% after their profit margins came in weaker than anyone expected. Sure, they tried to sound upbeat about the rest of the year, but investors weren’t buying it.

On the flip side, Affirm shot up 15% after actually turning a profit this quarter. They beat expectations across the board, which is huge for the “buy now, pay later” industry that’s been getting beaten up lately.

5. Fresh data paints a mixed picture of the US economy. Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3% annualized, underscoring solid growth, but labor indicators are softening.

Consumer surveys point to fading confidence in job availability, adding to signs of cooling.

The blend of strength and strain is shaping bets on near-term Fed moves and keeping global investors cautious.

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PepsiCo Inc. is deepening its investment in Celsius Holdings Inc. with a $585 million transaction designed to expand the distribution and strategic reach of the fast-growing energy drink company, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The move underscores PepsiCo’s continued push into the lucrative functional beverage market and comes amid growing consumer demand for healthier, performance-driven drinks.

Details of the transaction

According to the report, PepsiCo will acquire convertible preferred stock in Celsius, raising its ownership stake to 11%.

The deal extends the conversion period for PepsiCo’s initial 2022 investment, when it purchased an 8.5% stake for $550 million.

As part of the latest agreement, PepsiCo will also gain the right to nominate an additional director to Celsius’ board, further cementing its influence within the company.

In a parallel development, Celsius will acquire PepsiCo’s Rockstar Energy brand in the United States and Canada.

PepsiCo will continue to retain ownership of Rockstar internationally, ensuring that the brand remains part of its global energy beverage portfolio.

The transaction is expected to be announced as soon as Friday, the report said.

Strategic energy partnership

The deal significantly reshapes the relationship between the two companies.

Under the agreement, Celsius will become the strategic energy lead for PepsiCo in the US, overseeing three major energy brands: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy.

PepsiCo, meanwhile, will take the lead on the distribution of Celsius’ portfolio across the US, leveraging its extensive retail and supply chain network to broaden market reach.

Celsius’ Alani Nu, a female-focused energy drink acquired earlier this year, will now shift into PepsiCo’s distribution system in the US and Canada.

The move is aimed at accelerating Alani Nu’s retail presence and growth trajectory by tapping into PepsiCo’s established channels.

By integrating Celsius’ offerings into its own distribution framework, PepsiCo is positioning itself more firmly in the expanding energy drink segment.

The collaboration enhances PepsiCo’s beverage portfolio, which already includes well-known sports and performance brands such as Gatorade and CytoSport.

Market impact and growth outlook

Celsius, founded in 2004, has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by consumer enthusiasm for its vitamin-infused drinks marketed as calorie-burning and performance-enhancing.

The company’s sales momentum continued in the second quarter, with results surpassing Wall Street expectations following the integration of Alani Nu.

Celsius shares closed at $59.69 on Thursday, leaving the company with a market capitalisation of about $15.4 billion.

The stock has gained significantly in recent years as investors bet on the company’s ability to capture a growing share of the energy drink market.

For PepsiCo, the move reflects its broader strategy of adapting to shifting consumer preferences, with greater emphasis on healthier, less processed products.

While PepsiCo’s portfolio spans from breakfast cereals to juices, its investment in Celsius highlights the increasing importance of functional beverages in its growth agenda.

The deal positions both companies to benefit: Celsius gains access to PepsiCo’s vast distribution capabilities, while PepsiCo strengthens its foothold in one of the fastest-growing categories of the beverage industry.

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The competition to dominate the autonomous ride-hailing market is intensifying, with Tesla and Waymo taking sharply different paths in their rollout strategies.

A month after Tesla launched its first robotaxi trial in Austin, Texas, CEO Elon Musk told investors that driverless Teslas could be available to “half the population of the US” by the end of 2024.

In contrast, Alphabet-owned Waymo, which has been testing commercial autonomous services for more than eight years, currently covers areas with just 3% of the US population.

The divergence highlights not just the speed of expansion, but also contrasting approaches to technology, safety, and regulatory navigation.

Tesla expansion targets vs Waymo cautious rollout

Tesla’s robotaxi trial in Austin began in June and forms part of Musk’s vision to deploy the service nationwide at what he calls a “hyper-exponential rate”.

The company argues that its reliance on cameras and artificial intelligence enables faster scaling without the need for detailed mapping. According to Musk, once Tesla perfects operations in a few cities, it can apply the system anywhere in the country.

Waymo, meanwhile, continues to rely on a methodical city-by-city approach. Its system uses high-definition maps and advanced sensors to ensure safety before phasing in driverless rides.

The company began testing in Phoenix more than three years before launching paid, fully autonomous services there in 2020.

By August 2024, it expanded to offer service at Phoenix airport terminals. It now operates in parts of San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta, and the Bay Area.

Analysts say this difference in rollout speed has major implications. Some investors attribute much of Tesla’s stock value to the prospect of quickly scaling autonomous services.

Morningstar has projected that Tesla’s robotaxis may not achieve full deployment until 2028, but if successful, they could surpass Waymo’s market share by the end of the decade.

Safety challenges in Austin and beyond

Safety has become a central issue in the robotaxi race. While Musk emphasises that Tesla will not compromise on safety, authorities in Austin have already raised concerns over Waymo vehicles.

Austin police reported incidents where Waymo cars failed to respond correctly to officer hand signals or entered unsafe conditions. One vehicle drove into flood waters in May, forcing the passenger to escape.

In another case, during a charity walk, a Waymo car attempted to bypass a blocked road until officers disabled it by taping over its sensors.

Since March, police have issued three citations to Waymo vehicles, though officers note that the process of citing driverless cars is lengthy, limiting enforcement. Tesla’s fleet in Austin is still in its early stages, so authorities report limited interactions.

Technology contrasts and financial pressures

Waymo’s system is based on high-definition maps, LIDAR sensors, and a step-by-step AI process. Tesla relies on video from its cameras processed by AI software designed to mimic human driving decisions without pre-mapped instructions.

Waymo has tested elements of Tesla’s approach, but a research paper last year highlighted “challenges and limitations” in its performance.

Musk has set an ambitious goal of having “millions of Teslas operating autonomously” by the second half of 2025. This timeline comes as Tesla faces global sales pressure, with sharp declines reported in Europe.

Success in robotaxis is seen as vital for Tesla to offset headwinds in its core electric vehicle business.

Waymo’s financial results also reveal the cost of caution. Analysts estimate it lost between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in 2023, though projections suggest profitability could follow as costs fall and ridership expands.

Bank of America estimates point to the eventual sustainability of Waymo’s model, while Forrester analysts view Tesla’s method as a cheaper but riskier path.

Regulatory roadblocks and community engagement

Beyond technology, both companies face the challenge of navigating US regulations and winning public trust. Waymo has invested years in building community ties, such as meeting local organisations in Austin well before its launch. Representatives from the Texas School for the Deaf even tested rides before services began.

By contrast, Tesla informed school officials only shortly before its launch, and local leaders learned details from media reports. Regulatory challenges also remain uneven across the US.

For example, Waymo has targeted a 2026 rollout in Washington, D.C., but progress is delayed as the city council awaits transportation department recommendations.

Waymo has increased lobbying efforts, hiring three outside firms and circulating petitions to accelerate rulemaking. Meanwhile, Tesla has not engaged Washington officials to the same extent.

The rivalry between Tesla and Waymo highlights more than just corporate competition. It underscores how differing strategies—rapid expansion versus deliberate caution—may shape the future of autonomous ride-hailing.

Investors, regulators, and communities are now watching whether scale or safety will set the industry standard.

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A day of reckoning is unfolding for two of the world’s most influential tech titans, sending starkly conflicting signals through a nervous European market.

While a blockbuster earnings report from the AI kingpin Nvidia is providing a much-needed dose of optimism, a catastrophic collapse in Tesla’s European sales is painting a grim picture of a one-time market darling in the throes of a brutal unraveling.

European markets are heading for a higher open on Thursday, a fragile relief rally driven almost entirely by Nvidia.

The chip giant reported quarterly results that came in just above expectations and, crucially, confirmed that its blistering sales growth will remain above 50 percent this quarter.

The news, a testament to the resilience of the AI boom, has helped calm a market that was desperate for a positive catalyst.

The great unraveling: a 40% collapse

But beneath this surface-level calm, a far more dramatic and troubling story is taking shape. New sales figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) have revealed a stunning 40 percent collapse in Tesla’s European sales last month.

The company sold just 8,837 vehicles across the continent in July, a dramatic drop from 14,769 in the same month last year.
This is not a one-off blip; it is the continuation of a deep and worrying slump that began at the start of the year.

The collapse continued despite a recent revamp of Tesla’s signature Model Y, a clear sign that the brand is facing a severe crisis, potentially fueled by a backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political views.

A changing of the guard on Europe’s roads

As Tesla falters, a new challenger is aggressively seizing its crown. The same sales data shows that the Chinese EV-maker BYD is in the midst of an explosive expansion.

The Shenzhen-based company more than tripled its sales year-on-year in July, a staggering rise of 225 percent. This surge gave BYD a 1.2 percent market share in Europe, now decisively ahead of Tesla’s 0.8 percent.

The data confirms a trend that began in April, when BYD first overtook Tesla in European sales.

The Chinese giant, which is now competing with Tesla to be the world’s biggest EV maker, has launched an aggressive sales push in key markets like the UK, often undercutting its rivals on price.

In Britain, where Tesla’s sales slumped 59 percent, BYD’s sales quadrupled.

A cloud over corporate Europe

The day’s corporate news is not all about tech and cars. In France, the spirits giant Pernod Ricard reported a 3 percent decline in full-year sales, a performance dragged down by weak consumer sentiment in China and ongoing tariff uncertainty in the United States.

And in the UK, the share price of the power giant Drax is tumbling in early trading after the news that the country’s financial regulator is probing whether its recent annual reports complied with listing rules, adding another layer of uncertainty to a complex and volatile market.

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A tanker transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s US-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project has arrived at a Chinese terminal, marking the first direct delivery of its kind.

The vessel, Arctic Mulan, docked at the Beihai LNG terminal on Thursday, according to Bloomberg data. This development highlights Moscow’s continued push to expand its fuel deliveries to Asia after pipeline gas sales to Europe collapsed.

It also demonstrates how shadow fleet shipments are now entering mainstream Asian energy markets, despite initial concerns among buyers about potential US retaliation.

Arctic Mulan docks with Russian LNG in China

The Arctic Mulan loaded its cargo from a floating storage unit in eastern Russia in early June, with fuel originating from the blacklisted Arctic LNG 2 facility in northern Russia.

The terminal delivery on Thursday is the first time fuel from the sanctioned project has reached an official Chinese import hub.

Arctic LNG 2, led by Novatek PJSC, is a cornerstone of Russia’s strategy to triple LNG exports by 2030. The project’s capacity and its planned role in diversifying gas flows away from Europe make it one of the Kremlin’s most important energy assets.

However, the plant has been under US sanctions since its early operational stages, when President Joe Biden’s administration imposed restrictions on technology, investment, and trade linked to the facility.

Sanctions pressure and US diplomatic stance

The US has sought to block Arctic LNG 2’s expansion through sanctions but has stopped short of penalising buyers of Russian LNG. Washington has prioritised maintaining diplomatic leverage during negotiations on a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.

While India has faced political pressure from the US regarding its purchases of Russian oil, LNG trade has not yet faced the same level of scrutiny.

In August, US President Donald Trump described his face-to-face discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin as “extremely productive”.

This meeting came amid continued global debate over the enforcement of sanctions, the resilience of Russian energy exports, and the impact on international gas markets.

Output and export challenges for Arctic LNG 2

The Arctic LNG 2 plant began producing fuel last year, exporting eight cargoes during the summer months of 2023. However, the facility was forced to shut in October due to a lack of buyers and the onset of seasonal ice build-up around its infrastructure.

The unsold cargoes were diverted into domestic Russian storage units, highlighting the challenges faced in finding international customers under sanctions.

The recent delivery to China through Arctic Mulan signals that Russia is increasingly finding ways to bypass earlier obstacles.

By shifting volumes onto floating storage units and using vessels outside traditional shipping networks, Moscow has been able to push sanctioned fuel closer to mainstream energy trade flows.

Russia’s LNG ambitions and Asia’s role

Russia’s long-term plan to triple LNG exports by 2030 depends on projects like Arctic LNG 2 operating at scale and securing stable buyers. With Europe no longer a major market, Asia has become the primary focus.

China, already the world’s largest LNG importer, has taken on a more significant role as Russia seeks to offset lost European sales.

The successful docking of Arctic Mulan at Beihai may encourage further direct deliveries to Asian terminals. This would not only strengthen Russia’s foothold in Asia’s energy markets but also test how far the US is willing to enforce restrictions on LNG trade.

The shipment shows how Russian energy exporters are working to secure demand in Asia while navigating the challenges posed by sanctions, logistical barriers, and shifting global energy politics.

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Bloomberg reports, Sotheby’s will stage its first-ever auction series in Abu Dhabi this December, a move that reflects the emirate’s growing ambition to become a hub for art, culture, and luxury investments.

Running from 2 to 5 December, the series will be part of Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week and include rare cars, fine jewellery, timepieces, and real estate.

The event comes after Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ acquired a minority stake in Sotheby’s last year, signalling deeper integration of the auction house into the region’s wealth and cultural strategy, and expanding its global outreach.

Abu Dhabi’s cultural and wealth expansion

The auction launch aligns with Abu Dhabi’s investment in cultural assets, particularly through the Saadiyat Cultural District. This area already hosts the Louvre Abu Dhabi and is preparing to welcome the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.

These projects are designed to strengthen the emirate’s reputation as a global arts destination and highlight its strategy to merge cultural heritage with modern financial growth.

At the same time, Abu Dhabi is rapidly positioning itself as a magnet for global wealth. According to projections, the country’s richest families will control around $1 trillion by the end of next year.

Dubai, meanwhile, already hosts family offices managing more than $1 trillion in assets. Sotheby’s has reported a 25% rise in United Arab Emirates-based buyers over the last five years, underlining the appetite for luxury acquisitions in the region.

Luxury cars, diamonds, and rare collectibles

Among the headline items in the Abu Dhabi auctions is a 2010 Aston Martin One-77, estimated at between $1.3 million and $1.6 million. Also up for bidding is a 2017 Pagani Zonda 760 Riviera, which could fetch as much as $10.5 million.

A future McLaren Formula 1 Team car chassis is also expected to draw international attention from collectors.

The jewellery and diamond collection on offer is valued at more than $20 million, with additional auctions of rare timepieces and prime real estate further broadening the event’s appeal to buyers and investors seeking exclusive opportunities.

Auction timing with Abu Dhabi’s major events

Sotheby’s has scheduled the auctions to coincide with some of Abu Dhabi’s largest events, including the Formula 1 Grand Prix and Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

This timing is intended to attract wealthy international visitors who will already be in the city for these high-profile gatherings and combine leisure with investment opportunities.

The auctions will mark a new chapter for Sotheby’s in the Middle East, with the company leveraging strong regional demand for luxury goods.

Its decision to host the auctions in Abu Dhabi reflects a strategic push to bring global collectors to the emirate while giving local buyers access to some of the most exclusive assets in the world.

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Shares in French spirits group Pernod Ricard rose by more than 5.7% on Thursday after the company reported a smaller-than-expected fall in annual sales and profit, while offering guidance that pointed to improving trends in the latter half of fiscal 2026.

The performance was received positively by investors, who had braced for a deeper slowdown amid weak demand in key markets.

Tariff impact revised lower to €80 million annually

The company said it now expects tariffs imposed by the United States and China to cost around 80 million euros ($93.7 million) each year, down from an earlier estimate of 200 million euros.

Chief Executive Alexandre Ricard told Reuters that the group, nonetheless, expects fiscal 2026 to deliver an improvement over 2025, although it is too early to quantify the extent of the recovery.

“We will do better for the year than this year,” Ricard said.

The outlook emerges as the French distiller continues to navigate trade disputes, particularly between China and the European Union, while also adapting to new tariff announcements from the United States.

Full-year results slightly ahead of expectations

For the year ended June 30, Pernod Ricard reported sales of 10.96 billion euros, a 3% organic decline.

The figure was marginally better than the 3.2% drop analysts had forecast in company-compiled consensus and in line with its guidance for a low single-digit decline.

Profit from recurring operations fell 5.3% to 2.95 billion euros, reflecting weaker volumes and tariff pressures, while net profit rose 11% to 1.67 billion euros on reduced costs.

The board proposed an unchanged dividend of 4.70 euros per share.

Transition year ahead with a weak start expected

The group, maker of Absolut vodka, Jameson whiskey, Martell cognac and Havana Club rum, warned that fiscal 2026 would be a transition year.

Management forecasts a soft first quarter, driven by continued destocking in the United States and subdued consumer demand in China, but expects momentum to pick up in the second half.

Like its peers, Pernod Ricard has been hit by a downturn in spirits consumption following a post-pandemic surge.

Analysts note that the operating environment remains tough, particularly in the US and China, the company’s two largest markets.

Will the share price rally sustain? Analysts weigh in

Citi analysts described the outlook for organic sales growth in fiscal 2026 as slightly better than market expectations, noting that investors should take comfort from the earnings beat and strong free cash flow.

“We expect the shares to trade higher,” Citi’s Simon Hales wrote in a research note.

JP Morgan analysts said the results offered a mixed picture, combining a welcome earnings beat with a much weaker set-up into the first half of fiscal 2026.

They, however, cautioned that Thursday’s rally may be difficult to sustain after a strong run since late June.

“The share price is already discounting a muted pace of recovery in F26, as confidence in recovery increases, we expect the shares to re-rate,” Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy and associate Sebastian Hickman wrote in a research note. 

They added that the company is doubling down on cost-cutting efforts, which helped it beat earnings expectations, noting this should support the share price.

RBC Capital Markets offered a more guarded assessment, highlighting management’s ambiguous pledge to defend operating margins “to the fullest extent possible.”

The brokerage suggested that this could imply a decline in profitability in the near term.

Shares rally, but challenges remain

The Paris-listed stock has risen about 23% since late June and is up roughly 5% for the year to date.

Thursday’s jump reflected investor relief that full-year results were slightly ahead of forecasts, and that the tariff hit was smaller than initially feared.

Still, analysts warned that headwinds from weak US and Chinese demand, along with ongoing trade disputes, could weigh on performance in the near term.

Management maintained that the company is positioned for a gradual recovery, with improving sales momentum expected to emerge in the second half of the fiscal year.

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Tesla’s presence in the European electric vehicle market weakened further in July, with sales declining for the seventh consecutive month.

According to new data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Tesla recorded a 40% year-on-year drop in new registrations, while Chinese rival BYD achieved a sharp increase.

The figures reflect growing competition in Europe’s electric vehicle segment, where Chinese carmakers are steadily expanding their market share and offering vehicles at competitive prices.

Tesla registrations fall, BYD climbs rapidly

Tesla registered 8,837 new vehicles across Europe in July, representing a steep decline compared with the same period in 2024.

The ACEA data showed that this slump came despite overall growth in the region’s battery electric vehicle sales.

At the same time, BYD reported 13,503 new car registrations in Europe during July, marking a 225% annual increase.

The Chinese manufacturer has been expanding aggressively across the continent, opening showrooms and launching models in several key markets.

This expansion has allowed BYD to rapidly capture more customers, making it a strong challenger in Europe’s growing electric vehicle industry.

Competitive pressures reshape Europe’s EV market

Tesla’s fall in sales comes as the automaker faces several challenges.

These include a lack of major refreshes to its vehicle line-up and increasing concerns about the brand’s reputation linked to Elon Musk’s outspoken presence and political associations in the US.

The company has acknowledged the need to diversify its offerings, with plans to introduce a more affordable electric vehicle.

Tesla has said volume production for this model is scheduled for the second half of 2025.

Analysts have noted that new launches will be crucial for Tesla, as its current vehicle line-up is ageing compared to competitors, and models such as the Cybertruck have not delivered the expected results.

Meanwhile, Chinese brands are scaling their presence at speed.

Data from JATO Dynamics revealed that Chinese automakers secured more than 5% of the European market share in the first half of 2024, a record high.

BYD has been a leading contributor to this surge, but other Chinese manufacturers are also moving quickly to introduce competitive vehicles and strengthen their foothold in the region.

Broader auto market impact

The competitive pressure from China is not limited to Tesla.

Other manufacturers, including Stellantis (owner of Jeep), South Korea’s Hyundai Group, and Japanese carmakers Toyota and Suzuki, also posted year-on-year declines in July registrations.

In contrast, some European firms managed to record gains during the same month.

Volkswagen, BMW, and Renault Group all reported growth in new car registrations across Europe, showing resilience in the face of rising competition.

Globally, Tesla has also seen signs of strain.

The company’s automotive revenue fell in the second quarter of the year, and Elon Musk has indicated that the business may experience “a few rough quarters” ahead.

Tesla has increasingly highlighted its work in artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous driving, but analysts have warned that investors remain concerned about the company’s slowing car sales.

The data underscores how Europe’s electric vehicle sector is becoming one of the most competitive markets in the world.

With Chinese brands like BYD expanding rapidly, and established European automakers strengthening their own positions, Tesla faces mounting pressure to reverse its sales decline and adapt to the changing landscape.

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