Leading agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised upwards its projection for Russian wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing season. 

The firm now anticipates Russia to ship a robust 43.7 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat, an increase of 0.4 mmt from its previous forecast.

This upward revision underscores Russia’s growing dominance in the global wheat market.

Revised forecast and growth

The new forecast for 2025-26 highlights a significant year-on-year increase in export volumes.

In the preceding 2024-25 season, Russia successfully exported 40.8 mmt of wheat, a figure that already established its position as a major supplier. 

The projected 43.7 mmt for the upcoming season represents a substantial 7.1% growth over the previous year’s performance, indicating strong production capabilities and competitive pricing from Russian suppliers.

The US Department of Agriculture projects Russian wheat exports at 46.0 mmt.

SovEcon scaled up its forecast for wheat exports for the 2025-26 season. However, shipments continue to remain historically low in the first months of the season. 

Factors influencing upward revision

This optimistic revision is primarily attributed to highly favorable crop prospects, suggesting robust growth and a strong harvest.

This positive outlook for exports has outweighed the current low shipment figures, leading to an improved forecast for the season as a whole.

The export forecast has been adjusted upwards after the production estimate rose to 85.4 mmt from 83.6 mmt in July. This compares to 82.6 mmt harvested by Russian farmers a year prior.

Crop prospects in the Urals and Siberia improved, leading to an upward revision, SovEcon said.

The consultancy said:

Despite relatively good crop prospects, we are not ready to raise the estimate more significantly given the sluggish start of the export campaign.

According to SovEcon, cumulative wheat exports for July and August reached 6.1 mmt.

This figure is notably lower than the 9.9 mmt exported during the same period last year and falls short of the five-year average of 8.1 mmt.

September export figures are also expected to be historically low.

Challenges and market dynamics

This season has seen a decrease in Russian wheat purchases by major importers.

Shipments to Egypt totaled 1.1 mmt in July–August, a decrease from 1.5 mmt in the previous year. Similarly, Algeria’s imports fell from 0.5 mmt last year to 0.1 mmt. 

Importers might look to Argentina and Australia for new crops in the coming months, as the outlooks in those regions are getting better, SovEcon said. 

Australia’s farm ministry increased its 2025-26 wheat production forecast in September to 33.8 mmt, a 22% rise over the 10-year average and an increase from June’s estimate of 30.6 mmt.

Market participants anticipate that Argentina’s wheat production will surpass 20 mmt, an increase from 18.6 million metric tons last year.

Meanwhile, despite a sharp drop in energy prices, the ruble has remained relatively stable, hovering around 80 per dollar since early August.

Falling FOB prices are exacerbating the challenges faced by Russian exporters, the consultancy said. In fact, export prices dropped by $7/mt to $233/mt from mid-to-late August alone.

“We expect some growth in exports as domestic wheat prices in ruble terms continue to decline,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said. 

In recent weeks, exporters’ bids have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, we expect to see further declines in export prices and a gradual recovery in shipments.

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A fragile sense of calm has returned to European markets on Wednesday, with stocks staging a tentative rebound from a brutal sell-off that was driven by deep-seated fears over the region’s fiscal health.

This quiet recovery is being led by a stunning display of defiance from the luxury sector, but the ghosts of yesterday’s bond market rout still linger, casting a long and anxious shadow over the session.

In the opening hour of trade, the pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.1 percent higher, a modest gain that nonetheless stands in stark contrast to the previous day’s turmoil. Most sectors and all major bourses are posting gains, a sign that the market is, for now, finding its footing.

A watchmaker’s triumph in a tariff storm

The day’s undisputed star is Watches of Switzerland, whose shares have skyrocketed 8.3 percent in early trade.

The surge came after the company issued a confident trading update and received a crucial stock upgrade from Deutsche Bank, a powerful combination that has sent a jolt of optimism through a nervous market.

In a remarkable show of resilience, the company confirmed it was on track to deliver its results in line with expectations, masterfully navigating the crushing US tariffs that have been levied on its products.

“We have seen consistently strong trading throughout the period, particularly in the US despite the announcement of increased tariffs on Swiss imports,” the company said in its trading update.

It added that it did not anticipate a material impact from the tariffs in the first half, as its brand partners had strategically increased inventories ahead of the levies.

This bullish outlook was validated by Deutsche Bank, which upgraded the stock to a “buy.” 

“We believe the downside risk to WOSG earnings driven by US import tariffs is much more contained than the shares are reflecting,” analyst Alison Lygo said in a note.

The lingering ghost of the bond rout

This pocket of corporate strength, however, cannot entirely erase the memory of Tuesday’s turmoil.

The previous session’s sell-off was triggered by a dramatic spike in government bond yields, a clear sign of growing investor anxiety about the fiscal stability of Europe’s major economies.

The UK’s 30-year bond yield surged to its highest level since 1998 as the market braced for a contentious Autumn Budget.

At the same time, France’s 30-year yield hit its highest point since 2009, a direct reaction to a looming no-confidence vote that could topple the government over a fierce budget dispute.

This is not just a European problem.

The sell-off is part of a global phenomenon, exacerbated by a bombshell US court ruling that President Donald Trump’s global trade duties are illegal.

The decision raises the unsettling prospect of the US government having to repay billions in collected duties, putting even more pressure on an already stressed fiscal situation and sending a ripple of fear through the entire global bond market.

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The United States has revoked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s authorization to freely ship essential equipment to its main Chinese facility, tightening restrictions on Beijing’s access to advanced chip-making gear.

TSMC said Washington informed it of the decision to remove the “validated end user” (VEU) status for its Nanjing plant effective December 31.

The designation had allowed suppliers to ship semiconductor equipment covered by US export controls without requiring individual licenses.

The step mirrors a similar move taken last week against Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, whose memory chip plants in China had also benefited from blanket approvals.

The revocation means all three companies will need to secure case-by-case authorizations, complicating operations and upgrades at their Chinese sites.

The decision comes as Washington and Beijing pursue negotiations to pave the way for a meeting later this year between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The Trump administration has avoided imposing the harshest export curbs to prevent derailing talks but has signalled a tougher stance on semiconductor technology transfers.

“While we are evaluating the situation and taking appropriate measures, including communicating with the US government, we remain fully committed to ensuring the uninterrupted operation of TSMC Nanjing,” the Taiwanese chipmaker said in a statement.

Move to have limited impact on TSMC’s financials

Analysts said the impact on TSMC’s financials will be limited, given the relatively small size of its Chinese operations.

The Nanjing plant began production in 2018, using technology as advanced as the 16-nanometer process, which debuted more than a decade ago.

The site contributes only around 3% of TSMC’s total capacity and an even smaller share of revenue, as it produces lower-priced chips.

Morningstar senior equity analyst Phelix Lee said the loss of VEU status was “unexpected but should have a negligible effect on earnings and valuation.”

He added that TSMC may divert some equipment originally ordered for Japan to Nanjing before the December deadline to build spare capacity.

TSMC shares fell 3.7% in New York trading on Tuesday following the announcement.

Revocation to weigh more heavily on Samsung, SK Hynix

The revocation could weigh more heavily on Samsung and SK Hynix, whose China-based production represents a much larger share of their output.

“Revoking the “validated end-user” rules, which had allowed Samsung and SK Hynix to ship chip-making equipment to their plants in China without applying for a new license each time, would make them more difficult to expand or upgrade those facilities,” SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee said in a note.

The South Korean chip makers could also struggle to stay competitive against Chinese rivals in the conventional-chip market as a result, Han added.

Samsung produces around 40% of its NAND memory in China, while SK Hynix relies on its Chinese plants for roughly 40% of its DRAM and 30% of its NAND production.

Korea Investment & Securities analysts Minsook Chae and JT Hwang warned that any disruption at Samsung’s NAND plant in Xi’an or SK Hynix’s DRAM and NAND plants in Wuxi and Dalian could trigger supply shortages and push up memory prices.

“If instability drives prices higher, US cloud-service providers could face significant losses,” they said.

Analysts see bigger implications for China

While the immediate financial consequences for TSMC appear minor, analysts highlighted the broader significance of the move for China’s semiconductor ambitions.

“The bigger story is Washington’s intent—this isn’t about today’s profits, it’s about freezing China’s chip capacity over the long term,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Singapore.

Citi Research analyst Kevin Chen noted that Chinese memory makers may gain a competitive edge if foreign suppliers face curbs in expanding their operations, potentially boosting domestic demand.

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Oil prices plunged 2% on Wednesday after reports claimed that OPEC+ may consider further oil output hikes in the coming months. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies will consider further raising oil production at a meeting on Sunday, according to a Reuters report. 

Should there be an additional increase, OPEC+, responsible for approximately half of the global oil supply, would initiate the reversal of a second phase of output reductions, totaling around 1.65 million barrels per day (equivalent to 1.6% of global demand), more than a year ahead of schedule.

An online meeting of eight OPEC+ countries is scheduled for Sunday to determine October’s output. 

According to the reports, there’s a possibility that OPEC+ might choose to halt output increases for October.

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 2% at $64.21 per barrel.

Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was also 2% lower at $67.81 a barrel. 

OPEC+ output cuts

The eight members of the OPEC+ alliance, including kingpin Saudi Arabia and ally Russia, have been raising production of oil since April this year. 

The plan was to reverse the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2026. 

However, the group has been raising output by 411,000 barrels per day every month since May.

Additionally, the group agreed to raise output further by 548,000 barrels a day for each of August and September. 

A prevailing decision stipulates that the remaining restrictions of 3.66 million barrels per day, which include 1.66 million barrels per day on a voluntary basis, are set to continue until the close of 2026.

“We consider it unlikely that this will be changed outside of a regular OPEC+ meeting, especially since there is a risk of a considerable oversupply on the oil market from autumn onwards,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

Fears of supply disruptions

Oil prices have climbed sharply over the last few sessions. 

Brent and WTI crude benchmarks both hit a near one-month high on Tuesday due to new US sanctions on several tankers and vessels associated with carrying Iranian oil. 

Fritsch added:

Due to Labor Day, US markets were closed on Monday, which reduces the significance of yesterday’s price movements. 

The market remained on notice as the threat of supply disruptions loomed large with both Russia and Ukraine targeting each other’s energy infrastructures. 

Bloomberg is set to release data today on Russia’s seaborne oil exports. This release is anticipated to shed light on the impact, if any, of last week’s events.

Last week, overall shipments hit a four-week low, with those to India reaching their lowest point in nearly three years.

“It is quite possible that there will be a counter-movement,” Fritsch said. 

India ignores US pressure

India’s government is unwilling to stop purchases of Russian oil despite increasing pressure from Washington. 

India’s energy minister publicly defended the country’s oil purchases, asserting in an Indian daily newspaper that these actions had successfully stabilised the market and averted a potential price surge to $200.

There is still a financial incentive for Indian refineries to buy Russian Urals oil. 

“According to informed sources, this oil is being offered at a discount of USD 3-4 per barrel compared to Brent for cargoes loaded at the end of September and in October,” Fritsch said.

By comparison, Indian refineries recently had to pay a premium of USD 3 over Brent for US oil.

Nayara Energy’s refinery, majority-owned by Russian entities, was added to the EU sanctions list in July.

Consequently, both Saudi Arabia and Iraq have ceased their oil supply to this Indian refinery, according to Commerzbank.

The refinery in question, which processes 400,000 barrels of crude oil daily, represents almost 8% of India’s total processing capacity.

Consequently, it is now anticipated to rely entirely on Russian oil imports.

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The electric vehicle revolution promised unstoppable growth and sky-high profits.

Tesla once led with its futuristic tech and cult-like following. BYD, China’s EV titan, surged past rivals with aggressive expansion and bold pricing. But recent earnings have put question marks over that story.

Profits are slipping, price wars are cutting deep, and even the biggest names are showing cracks. Investors who still see EVs as a guaranteed win need to rethink their positions. Consumers are now beginning to wonder if it’s still worth the hype.

What’s behind Tesla’s faltering appeal?

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software was meant to be a game changer. Instead, it is turning off buyers. A recent survey of over 8,000 US consumers revealed only 14% would be more likely to buy a Tesla because of FSD.

More tellingly, 35% said it made them less likely to buy one. Nearly half want regulators to ban it outright.

This skepticism isn’t just about tech, but more about trust. Tesla’s frequent safety recalls and public controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk have eroded confidence.

FSD remains unproven at scale and has been linked to accidents.

Many Tesla owners who paid for the software refuse to activate it. The tech, once Tesla’s crown jewel, now feels like a liability. The company’s growth depends heavily on this innovation, but that pillar is shaky.

Tesla’s stock is starting to reflect this sentiment. After a strong start to 2025, shares have dropped 13% this year.

With margins squeezed and brand trust weakening, Tesla faces tougher competition than ever, especially in China where BYD’s rise is eating into its market share.

Why is BYD’s profit tumbling despite rising sales?

BYD reported a nearly 30% plunge in net profit for the second quarter, dropping to 6.36 billion yuan ($890 million). That’s the first quarterly profit decline since early 2022.

Yet, revenues grew 14% year-on-year, reaching 201 billion yuan ($28.1 billion). The disconnect between revenue growth and profit decline reveals a key problem: margins are under severe pressure.

BYD’s gross margin fell from 18.8% last year to 18% in the first half of 2025. While this is still strong compared to rivals like Zhejiang Geely and Chery, the trend is worrying.

The company’s profit was hammered by aggressive price cuts in China, a tactic BYD itself helped spark.

The domestic market’s fierce price war forced BYD to slash prices repeatedly, narrowing its profits.

Adding to the strain, BYD has sped up payments to suppliers to comply with new government regulations. Faster payments squeeze cash flow and working capital, increasing borrowing, which rose from 28.6 billion yuan to 39.1 billion yuan in less than a year.

At the same time, research and development costs climbed over 50% as BYD invests heavily in batteries and driver-assistance tech.

Overseas sales are a bright spot. BYD’s international revenue surged 50% in the first half of 2025. European registrations jumped 225% in July alone. The company is expanding aggressively in Brazil, Australia, and Europe.

But even this overseas growth is not enough to offset the pressure at home.

Is the price war crippling the EV industry’s economics?

The core issue isn’t just BYD or Tesla but the entire EV sector in China. Retail EV prices have dropped roughly 19% over two years. This price war benefits consumers but destroys profits across the board.

Chinese regulators have warned automakers about “rat-race competition,” where constant discounting endangers supply chains and the reputation of Chinese-made vehicles globally.

The government’s crackdown aims to end unsustainable price cuts that are now routine in the industry.

Legacy automakers are reacting. Porsche recently delayed its full EV transition, returning to hybrids and combustion engines. Opel ditched its 2028 EV-only goal.

The message here is that EV companies that are chasing volume at any cost are hitting a wall. Sustainable profits require more than just aggressive pricing. Without it, even market leaders risk collapse.

Who are the real winners and losers in this market shake-up?

Tesla and BYD remain the biggest names, but both are showing cracks.

Tesla struggles with a damaged brand and questionable technology bets. BYD leads in volume but bleeds profits trying to hold its ground in China’s cutthroat market.

Meanwhile, some legacy automakers benefit by avoiding the fray. They lean on hybrids and ICE vehicles for steady cash flow. These brands are not losing EV relevance but are pacing growth more realistically. This strategy may shield investors from the volatility wrecking Tesla and BYD.

Another key opportunity lies overseas. BYD’s aggressive international expansion shows how global markets can buffer domestic weakness. In Brazil, Europe, and Australia, BYD is gaining market share with competitive pricing and increasing brand recognition.

What should investors take from this upheaval?

The electric vehicle story is no longer about guaranteed exponential growth or unbeatable tech hype. It is a story of hard economic realities setting in. Investors must focus on profitability, balance sheets, and business models, not just sales volume or futuristic features.

Tesla’s FSD troubles reveal how fragile brand strength can be. BYD’s profit squeeze shows that even market leaders can’t escape brutal competition. Price wars erode margins for all players, pushing companies to borrow more and cut corners.

The companies best positioned are those that can grow profitably, control costs, and diversify globally.

BYD’s overseas push is a smart move but carries risks in execution and rising costs. Tesla needs to rebuild trust and deliver on its tech promises to justify premium valuations.

For investors, the EV market is no longer a one-way bet. Careful analysis of margins, cash flow, and competitive strategy is essential. The next phase of EV growth will reward discipline, not hype. Profits will matter more than ever.

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A day of significant global developments is underway, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives in China for a rare and highly symbolic summit, India’s market regulator moves to curb speculation, and the price of Russian oil continues to fall for its key Asian buyers.

This flurry of activity is setting a complex and dynamic tone for markets across the region.

Here’s your one-stop stand to catch up on all the headlines you may have missed.

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un crosses into China by train to meet Xi, Putin

In a rare overseas trip that will underscore his growing ties with Beijing and Moscow, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un entered China on Tuesday aboard his private train.

He is heading to Beijing to attend a major military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, where he will stand alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency confirmed the visit early Tuesday, noting he was accompanied by his foreign minister and other senior officials.

The visit is Kim’s first to China since January 2019 and a powerful symbol of a new, coordinated challenge to the US-led world order.

Russian oil gets cheaper for India as US ramps up trade criticism

The price of Russian crude oil is becoming even more attractive for Indian buyers, a development that comes as New Delhi faces sustained and intense pressure from the US to cut its energy trade with Moscow.

The price of Urals crude has now dipped to a discount of $3 to $4 a barrel to Brent on a delivered basis for cargoes loading in late September and October, according to people who received the offers.

This is wider than the $2.50 discount seen last week, and stands in stark contrast to more expensive US crude, which was recently priced at a premium of around $3.

Indian refiners have continued to buy Russian oil despite the Trump administration’s punishing tariffs and sharp public criticism.

Japan’s Metaplanet secures new funding tools to buy Bitcoin

Japanese Bitcoin treasury Metaplanet Inc. has secured shareholder approval for a proposal that will allow it to raise as much as 555 billion yen ($3.8 billion) via the issuance of preferred shares.

The move is a bid to dramatically expand its financing options as it continues its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin.

The company, which currently holds about 20,000 Bitcoin, has a stated goal of quintupling its stockpile to 100,000 by the end of 2026. The vote comes after the firm announced plans last week to raise around 130 billion yen by selling stock overseas.

India tightens equity options rules again after Jane Street saga

India’s securities regulator is imposing further restrictions on equity-index options trading in a bid to curb speculation, just months after its high-profile crackdown on the US trading giant Jane Street Group.

Starting October 1, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) will cap intraday positions at 50 billion rupees (567 million dollars) on a net basis, a significant change from the previous regime, which had no limit.

The move is the latest in a string of curbs aimed at cooling India’s booming options market and checking alleged manipulation, and follows SEBI’s temporary ban on Jane Street in July for allegedly manipulating an index of bank stocks.

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Amazon has formally launched its cloud computing services in New Zealand, reviving a plan first unveiled in 2021 to invest more than NZ$7.5 billion ($4.4 billion) in data centres.

The investment, to be deployed through Amazon Web Services (AWS), marks one of the largest technology commitments in the country’s history.

Beyond establishing the AWS Asia Pacific (New Zealand) Region, the move is set to generate over 1,000 full-time jobs annually and add an estimated NZ$10.8 billion to New Zealand’s gross domestic product.

The announcement underscores the government’s strategy of attracting foreign investment to revive an economy that slipped into recession last year.

AWS investment reshapes New Zealand tech and jobs

The launch of AWS in New Zealand is expected to transform the country’s digital infrastructure. According to Amazon, the construction, operation, and maintenance of the new data centres will create over 1,000 jobs each year.

These jobs span not only the building phase but also long-term roles in operations and maintenance.

The company estimates that the project will contribute NZ$10.8 billion to the economy over time, positioning cloud technology as a driver of growth in the South Pacific nation.

While the investment does not yet have a publicly disclosed timeline, the creation of a new AWS region in New Zealand signals long-term commitment to the market.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, attending the launch event in Auckland on Tuesday, highlighted the significance of the investment.

Local media reported that Amazon executives declined to reveal details such as data centre locations, but the launch establishes a foundation for customers across the country to store and process data locally.

Cloud adoption gains momentum in New Zealand

The AWS Asia Pacific (New Zealand) Region will give local companies the option to run workloads and store data within the country’s borders, improving latency and compliance.

Existing customers such as accounting platform Xero and Kiwibank now have a “home-grown” option for hosting services, which Amazon says will allow businesses to deliver digital products faster and with greater reliability.

This development is particularly relevant for industries that require secure and low-latency cloud services. As organisations increasingly adopt cloud computing, the ability to keep data within New Zealand’s jurisdiction is expected to accelerate adoption rates.

Luxon acknowledged that Amazon had previously flagged higher costs of operating in New Zealand compared to Australia, with expenses around 20% higher.

These cost pressures have been cited as one reason behind the government’s decision to reform planning laws and adjust visa settings in order to attract investors like Amazon.

Government reforms aim to unlock investment

New Zealand has been actively working to stimulate foreign investment as part of its economic recovery strategy. Following a deep recession last year, the country has struggled to maintain growth momentum.

To address this, the government has reformed planning regulations to speed up approvals for large-scale projects and has altered visa settings to attract global entrepreneurs and investors.

Luxon framed the AWS launch as evidence that these policy adjustments are yielding results.

He noted that while the AWS plan was initially announced nearly four years ago, Tuesday’s event marked the official start of operations, which the government sees as a milestone for its investment-driven recovery strategy.

The Prime Minister emphasised that welcoming international investors is central to job creation and economic resilience. He reiterated that the government wants “a lot more” of such projects to establish New Zealand as an attractive destination for multinational firms.

AWS launch strengthens digital infrastructure

For New Zealand, the AWS launch represents more than a large-scale investment; it signals a structural shift in digital infrastructure.

The presence of a regional cloud provider ensures that data sovereignty and service availability are no longer dependent on offshore centres.

For customers like Xero and Kiwibank, the immediate advantage is improved performance and regulatory compliance. For the broader economy, the estimated NZ$10.8 billion GDP boost reflects how digital infrastructure can underpin wider economic modernisation.

Although Amazon has not provided a timeline for construction or full operations, the launch has already reshaped expectations around the country’s technology capabilities.

With foreign investment central to the government’s economic plans, the AWS commitment is seen as a strategic pivot point for New Zealand’s digital economy.

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A wave of profound uncertainty has sent European markets into a sharp retreat at the open on Tuesday, as a bombshell US court ruling plunged the global trade landscape into chaos.

The cautious optimism that began the new trading month has evaporated, replaced by a risk-off mood as investors grapple with the legal turmoil, a spike in UK bond yields to a 26-year high, and brace for a critical inflation reading.

The positive sentiment from Monday has completely reversed. The pan-European Stoxx 600 is in the red, with Germany’s DAX leading the losses with a steep 0.8 percent drop.

The UK’s FTSE 100 is down 0.4 percent, while bourses in Italy and France are also in negative territory, a clear sign that the market’s fragile confidence has been broken.

A bombshell ruling, a new layer of chaos

The primary source of the market’s anxiety is a stunning 7-4 ruling from the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which determined that President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs are illegal and that only Congress has the authority to apply such levies.

The decision, which Trump immediately called “Highly Partisan” and vowed to appeal, throws the entire global trade regime into disarray.

Instead of relief, the legal bombshell has injected a potent dose of instability into a market already on edge about entering a historically weak September.

This uncertainty is being amplified by a dramatic move in the UK government bond market.

Yields on 30-year gilts have surged to their highest level since 1998, a significant development that mirrors a rise in bond yields across Europe and the US.

The spike adds to the immense pressure on the UK government to address the country’s fiscal picture and signals that investor anxiety about long-term debt is intensifying globally.

A corporate scandal adds to the gloom

Injecting a dose of corporate drama into the session, Swiss food giant Nestle has been thrown into turmoil after its CEO, Laurent Freixe, was abruptly ousted due to an undisclosed workplace affair.

The company announced that a probe found Freixe had a romantic relationship with a direct subordinate, a violation of Nestlé’s code of conduct.

The shock ouster of the leader of one of Europe’s largest companies, who had been in the job for just a year, has only added to the nervous and unpredictable mood gripping the market as it awaits the day’s critical inflation data.

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The FTSE 100 Index continued its downtrend in the past few days, moving from the year-to-date high of £9,358 to a low of £9,160. This crash may continue as the UK bond yield continues soaring to their highest point in a while. 

UK bond yields are soaring

The FTSE 100 Index pulled back as UK’s bond yields surged. The yield of the 10-year government bonds jumped to 4.80 %, its highest level since May, up from the year-to-date low of 4.381%.

Similarly, the longer-term bond yields rose to 5.688%, the highest level since 1998. The yield has been on a constant uptrend after bottoming at 0.386% in 2019.

The stock market tends to underperform when government bond yields are in a strong uptrend. In theory, this often leads to rotation from equities to high-yielding bonds. 

UK bonds are surging because of the rising expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain interest rates steady in the coming meetings as inflation steadies. The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in July, moving further away from the target of 2.0%.

The yields are also soaring as the market price in higher by the Keir Starmer administration, which faces a multi-billion-pound hole. 

One of the potential tax cut could be a windfall tax on banks, which a lobby argued would raise billions of dollars and leave some money to spare for the government. 

The 30-year gilt rate also jumped as demand for long-dated bonds continued waning globally. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair slumped to 1.3400, its lowest level since August 7 and 3% below the highest point this year. 

Top gainers and laggards in the Footsie

Most interest rate-exposed companies were among the top laggards in the FTSE 100 Index. Taylor Wimpey, a major player in the housebuilding industry, dropped by 3% to 93.15p, down by over 42% from its highest point this year. 

Marks and Spencer, a top UK retailer, plunged to 332p, down by almost 20% from the year-to-date high. Other top laggards in the index were companies like Land Securities, United Utilities, Sainsbury, Barratt Redrow, and Persimmon, all of which plunged by over 2.4%.

On the other hand, Fresnillo’s stock price rose by 0.75% as gold and silver prices continued their upward trajectory. Unilever, Scottish Mortgage, GSK, BP, and Antofagasta stocks were among the top gainers in the index. 

FTSE 100 Index analysis

FTSE 100 chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe shows that the FTSE 100 Index continued its strong downtrend today, moving to its lowest point in weeks. It slumped from a high of £9,355 to £9,145. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level of 72 to 49 today. Also, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator have formed a bearish crossover pattern and are pointing downwards. 

These oscillators are yet to get to their pivotal levels, meaning that the index has more downside to go in the coming weeks. If this happens, the nxt point to watch will be at £9,000. A move above the year-to-date high at £9,354 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Read more: FTSE 100 Index top gainers and losers of 2025 revealed

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Global oil markets are operating within a narrow band, with traders closely watching two key developments: the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on production levels and Washington’s next steps in targeting Russian energy supplies.

Brent crude hovered near $69.00 a barrel, edging higher after a 1% gain in the November contract during the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded close to $65.00.

The market has been waiting for fresh catalysts, as crude has been stuck between $65.00 and $70.00 in recent weeks, about 8% lower year-to-date.

OPEC+ set to decide October output

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will convene this weekend to finalise output for October.

Market observers widely expect the group to keep supply steady, after earlier meetings saw supply curbs eased in an effort to claw back market share.

That decision raised concerns of a looming surplus, especially as demand growth remains uncertain amid a US-led trade war that risks slowing energy consumption.

This weekend’s decision will set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly as oil has struggled to break out of its narrow price range.

Traders are positioning for signals that could either confirm stability or raise fresh worries about oversupply.

US pressure on Russian crude flows

Russian oil exports remain central to geopolitical tensions, as the US continues to pressure Moscow by targeting India, one of the largest buyers of Russian crude.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Vladimir Putin in a cordial exchange on Monday, where New Delhi rejected US calls to curb imports.

Washington, however, has not stepped back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that new sanctions could be announced this week, aiming to push Moscow towards peace in Ukraine.

The measures may weigh further on Russian supply, although the global market impact will depend on how India and other major importers respond.

Indian tariffs and Trump’s statement

Alongside US sanctions, trade tensions added another layer of uncertainty.

President Donald Trump said India had offered to cut tariffs on US goods to zero, following Washington’s imposition last week of 50% levies as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

While it is unclear when the offer was made or if it will reopen talks, the announcement comes ahead of Trump’s scheduled address at 2 pm Washington time on Tuesday.

India’s role remains critical in shaping oil demand and trade balances. Its refusal to halt Russian imports highlights the limitations of US sanctions when weighed against domestic energy needs.

Any tariff cuts, however, could signal a recalibration of trade relations between the two nations.

Supply risks keep prices rangebound

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, analysts suggest that crude prices are being held in check by two competing forces: risks to supply and fears of oversupply.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have provided a floor for prices, while expectations of a glut have capped gains.

The balance has left oil “rangebound” in recent weeks, with the Brent benchmark unable to break out decisively.

As sanctions debates continue and OPEC+ finalises its October output, traders are braced for volatility.

With Brent stuck near $69.00 and WTI at $65.00, any new policy announcement could push prices beyond their current band.

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