South Korean equities slumped on Monday, leading declines across Asian markets, as uncertainty over interest rates and fresh doubts about the sustainability of artificial intelligence-related spending weighed heavily on technology shares.

The benchmark Kospi fell as much as 5%, its steepest intraday decline since Nov. 5, prompting authorities to temporarily halt trading, according to an official note.

Heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell more than 5%, erasing part of the gains that had driven the market to outperform global peers over the past year.

The Korean won also weakened sharply, adding to the risk-off tone.

AI trade under pressure

A combination of global and sector-specific factors prompted investors to unwind positions in previously high-flying names.

Market sentiment was dented by lingering uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair, alongside volatility in precious metals that has rippled across risk assets.

Technology shares came under additional pressure after comments from Jensen Huang, chief executive officer of Nvidia, who said a proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment.”

The remarks raised fresh questions about the scale and pace of future capital spending tied to artificial intelligence, a key driver of equity gains in South Korea.

“Jensen’s comments likely had a near-term sentiment impact, particularly on AI-exposed names that have rallied strongly year to date,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, in a Bloomberg report. “The remarks primarily served as a profit-taking catalyst, as we see some unwinding of crowded trades across the market.”

From global leader to sharp reversal

Seoul has been among the world’s strongest equity markets since last year, buoyed by voracious global demand for memory chips used alongside AI processors.

That surge lifted South Korea’s total equity market valuation above $3.3 trillion, allowing it to overtake Germany last week as the world’s 10th-largest stock market, just behind Taiwan.

Monday’s selloff marked a sharp reversal of that momentum.

Domestic and foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Korean shares, while retail investors stepped in as buyers, according to market data.

The pullback in Seoul mirrored broader weakness across the region, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling more than 2%.

Currency slide

Pressure was also evident in currency markets.

The Korean won fell as much as 1.3% to 1,459.20 per dollar, its largest daily decline since October, underperforming most Asian peers amid foreign outflows from equities.

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Monday as investors digested private data on China’s factory activity for January, while gold prices extended their losses from the previous session.

The sharp declines underscored how quickly sentiment can turn in markets that had been heavily positioned for continued gains from the global AI boom, as investors reassess both monetary policy risks and the durability of technology spending.

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Asian markets opened the week under heavy pressure as a sharp selloff in South Korean equities set the tone for the region, while investors weighed mixed signals from China’s manufacturing sector, steep losses in precious metals, sliding oil prices, and a major leadership development at Walt Disney.

Asian markets lead declines as South Korea tumbles

South Korean benchmarks led losses across Asia on Monday, with a sharp selloff in technology stocks triggering trading halts and dragging on regional sentiment.

The Kospi index fell more than 4%, while Kospi 200 futures dropped as much as 5%, prompting authorities to temporarily halt trading, according to an official note.

Index heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics slid 6.66% and 5.55%, respectively.

The small-cap Kosdaq fell 4.45%.

Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.03%, while the Topix added 0.59%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 3.03%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 1.7%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1%. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell more than 2%.

Currency markets reflected the risk-off tone.

The Korean won weakened sharply, while futures tied to major US benchmarks also fell in early Asian trading.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.7%, S&P 500 futures dipped 1.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures shed 1.6%.

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 for the first time since April and last traded around $76,700.

China manufacturing activity improves but confidence weakens

China’s factory activity gathered pace in January, according to a private survey released Monday, as manufacturers accelerated production and front-loaded shipments ahead of the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

The seasonally adjusted RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 the previous month, matching analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The result marked the strongest level since October, when the index stood at 50.6.

Production accelerated as new orders increased both domestically and abroad, with firms hiring additional staff to manage rising workloads.

Total new orders expanded for an eighth straight month, while new export orders rebounded, supported by demand from Southeast Asia.

However, business confidence slipped to a nine-month low amid worries about rising costs. “Looking ahead, if cost pressures persist while demand recovery is limited, profit margins will remain under pressure,” said Yao Yu, founder of credit research firm RatingDog in a CNBC report.

Jingyi Pan of S&P Global Market Intelligence said subdued confidence and rising geopolitical instability may weigh on demand in the coming months.

The private survey contrasted with an official PMI released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which showed manufacturing unexpectedly contracting to 49.3 in January.

Oil and metals slide as geopolitical fears ease

Commodity markets remained volatile after steep losses last week.

Spot gold was down about 6.4% at $4,556 an ounce, while silver fell around 9.5% to $76.43 an ounce.

Silver prices plunged roughly 30% on Friday, marking their worst one-day performance since 1980, while gold dropped about 9%.

Oil prices also fell sharply as investors scaled back fears of supply disruptions.

Brent crude slid as much as 5.2% to $65.69 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped 5.34% to $61.76.

The decline followed comments by US President Donald Trump that Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signalling a potential easing in tensions.

“The talks are happening at the same time Iran is threatening a regional war should they be attacked, which could lead to substantially higher oil prices, an outcome that the Trump Administration would like to avoid,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.

Disney board aligns on new CEO

In corporate news, the board of Walt Disney Co. is aligning on promoting theme-park division chairman Josh D’Amaro to chief executive officer, reported Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

If approved, D’Amaro would succeed Bob Iger, concluding a three-year CEO search.

“The board has not yet selected the next CEO of the Walt Disney Co. and once that decision is made, we will announce it,” a Disney spokesperson said.

Disney is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on Monday, with its annual shareholder meeting set for March 18.

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Gold and silver prices fell further on Monday as the impending increases in CME precious metals margin requirements, set to take effect at the session close, weighed on the market, while investors also focused on the potential interest rate stance of Kevin Warsh, US President Donald Trump’s pick for Fed chair.

The gold contract on COMEX dropped 3.6% to trade around $4,577.24 per ounce.

Last week, the contract had hit a record high of above $5,600 per ounce. 

On the other hand, silver prices on COMEX plunged more than 38% from their record high of $120 per ounce to $75 an ounce on Monday. 

CME Group announced on Saturday that it is hiking margins on its metal futures, with the changes taking effect after market close on Monday. 

COMEX gold futures margins (1oz) will be raised from 6% to 8%.

COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) are set to increase to 15% from 11%. 

Additionally, platinum and palladium futures will also see increases in margin requirements.

Higher margin requirements typically have a negative impact on the contracts they affect.

This is because the increased capital required can reduce speculative interest and liquidity, often forcing traders to close out their existing positions.

Headwinds from new Fed chair selection

Gold continues to face bearish pressures, despite a slight recovery from a three-week low of $4,585 per ounce. 

This is due to persistent buying interest in the dollar, which has stalled any significant recovery for the yellow metal, according to Dhwani Mehta, analyst at FXStreet.

Gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, continues to struggle due to two key developments: easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which has calmed markets, and Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman on Friday.

Mehta said in a report:

Meanwhile, markets view Warsh as a proponent of lower interest rates.

They anticipate him to curb the Fed’s balance sheet, which typically supports the dollar by diminishing the money supply in the market, according to Reuters.

Warsh appears to be a strong candidate for Trump’s Federal Reserve Chair, meeting many of the criteria. 

However, uncertainty remains regarding the speed and depth of potential interest rate cuts he might implement, as well as the extent of his intended “regime change” at the Fed.

Market expectations still point to a minimum of two rate cuts in 2026, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

This outlook is generally favorable for non-yielding assets like bullion, which typically perform better when interest rates are lower. 

Geopolitics and economic data

Geopolitical developments, particularly between the US and Iran, along with the forthcoming US economic data—specifically the crucial US ISM Manufacturing PMI—will be the key focus in the near term.

This ISM report is expected to establish the market’s direction, leading up to the release of this week’s vital employment statistics.

“The data flow will help reprice markets’ expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed, with the first cut for this year likely seen in June following the January Fed policy announcements,” Mehta said. 

Meanwhile, the US will “hopefully” reach a deal with Iran, according to Trump, who commented over the weekend following a warning from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a Washington attack could lead to a regional conflict.

The easing of tensions between the US and Iran eroded the safe-haven demand for precious metals such as gold and silver somewhat. 

Technical outlook

The prevailing uptrend is currently paused, as the gold price is trading below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but remains above the 50-day SMA. 

This underlying bullish momentum is supported by the SMAs being in a favorable alignment: the 21-day is positioned above the 50, 100, and 200-day averages, with all slopes indicating upward movement, according to Mehta.

Rising longer-term SMAs above the 100 and 200-day levels reinforce the bullish bias, indicating the trend remains well-supported by higher-timeframe averages, she added.

Silver is currently trading at $76.60 on the daily chart. The metal’s price is below the ascending 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), positioned at $79.50. 

Momentum has moderated, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at a neutral 44, following a recent overbought condition. 

Sustaining above the 50-day EMA is key to maintaining buying interest, whereas a daily close below this moving average would signal potential downside risk, according to a FXStreet report.

“If momentum stabilizes, bulls could attempt to extend the recovery, while failure to re-accelerate would keep trade contained,” Sagar Dua, editor at FXStreet, said in a report. 

Meanwhile, Commerzbank AG’s head of FX and commodity research, Thu Lan Nguyen, believes that Trump would want lower interest rates, as it was his stance from the very first day. 

This would, in turn, lead him to put pressure on the new Fed Chair, and therefore, there are probabilities that interest rates will still come down, Nguyen said. 

This suggests that the gold price will remain well supported.

The extent of the correction also suggests that market participants were simply waiting for an opportunity to take profits after the rapid price rise.

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Temasek Holdings Pte. and Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. are expected to be among the largest sellers in the long-awaited initial public offering of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd., reported Bloomberg, citing sources.

The IPO could raise about $2.5 billion and would mark one of India’s most significant capital market listings in years.

The offering is expected to be entirely a secondary sale, with existing shareholders collectively offering between 4% and 4.5% of NSE’s equity.

The person cited in the report said all of the exchange’s roughly 190,000 shareholders will be given the option to participate in the sale.

Major shareholders line up for secondary sale

LIC and Temasek are likely to be key participants in the IPO, alongside State Bank of India Ltd. and SBI Capital Markets Ltd., which are also expected to sell shares.

According to data published on NSE’s website, LIC holds a 10.72% stake in the exchange, while Temasek owns about 4.5%.

SBI Capital Markets held roughly 4.5% as of Dec. 31, 2025, and SBI’s direct stake stands at about 3.2%.

Shares of NSE are currently trading at around ₹2,150 in the unlisted market, according to Incredmoney.com.

That price implies a valuation of roughly ₹5.3 lakh crore ($58 billion), which would make NSE the world’s fourth-most valuable exchange among listed peers, based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

Board committee to oversee IPO preparations

NSE’s board is expected to form a committee in the coming days to oversee the IPO process, the person said.

The committee is likely to include senior executives of the exchange as well as representatives of major shareholders, including LIC and SBI.

The board is scheduled to meet on Feb. 6 to approve the financial results for the quarter ended December 2025 and is also expected to decide on the formation of the committee at that meeting.

The committee’s mandate is expected to include assisting the board in appointing investment bankers, negotiating fees, determining how many shares existing investors will sell, and filing the draft prospectus.

NSE is targeting a timeline of about three months to file the draft prospectus, the person added.

Deliberations are ongoing, and the details of the offering could still change.

Regulatory clearance after decade-long delay

The IPO preparations come after NSE said on Friday that it had received regulatory clearance to begin the listing process.

The approval follows nearly a decade of setbacks after the exchange first filed for an IPO in 2016.

That plan stalled after India’s markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India, raised allegations of corporate governance lapses and unfair market access at the exchange.

NSE later filed two settlement applications related to the case, proposing to pay close to ₹1,300 crore.

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Not many expected that Asian equities would outperform the US heading into 2026.

US equities as currently struggling to hold their ground as volatility picks up and investors are becoming anxious.

For investors used to seeing Asia lag until Wall Street gives permission, that reversal deserves more than a passing glance.

Analysts and investors are trying to figure out if this is a “one-off” event or a sign of something deeper that is rattling the global markets.

Are Asian markets really outperforming?

By the end of January, MSCI Asia ex-Japan was up in the high single digits on a total return basis, putting it on track for its strongest month in nearly three years.

The S&P 500 delivered only low single-digit gains in January, and did so unevenly, with large intraday swings driven by a handful of companies.

This gap is appearing from very different starting points.

US equities entered the year at record highs with valuations already reflecting strong earnings growth and stable policy.

Meanwhile, Asian equities entered the year priced for caution, slower growth, and persistent geopolitical risk.

Outperformance from that position tends to mean something different.

What also stands out is where the gains are coming from.

In Asia, strength has been broad.

Korea and Taiwan have benefited from the semiconductor cycle, Japan has seen steady inflows tied to corporate reforms, and parts of Southeast Asia have gained from supply chain investment.

In the US, index performance has remained tightly linked to a small group of technology companies.

When one of them disappoints, the index feels it immediately.

The currency effect investors often miss

Equity returns rarely travel alone. Over the past decade, a strong dollar often erased much of Asia’s local market performance for global investors, but things have changed now.

Since late 2025, several Asian currencies have stabilized or appreciated, even during periods of market stress.

The Korean won is a good example. After a sharp slide earlier in the year, it recovered as US Treasury officials pushed back against moves that appeared disconnected from fundamentals.

Similar patterns can be seen in Taiwan and Singapore.

This means that the currency no longer acts as a constant headwind.

When local equity gains are no longer offset by FX losses, global returns improve even if local markets do nothing extraordinary.

It also changes investor behavior, as allocators become more willing to buy dips when they are not also betting against the currency.

Meanwhile, the dollar has become less reliable as a one-way hedge.

Fiscal expansion, tariff uncertainty, and political noise have reduced its role as the default safety valve.

That does not mean a dollar collapse. It does mean the advantage US assets enjoyed from currency alone is no longer automatic.

Earnings breadth versus earnings dependence

The most important difference between Asia and the US right now sits inside earnings, not macro forecasts.

US equity performance remains highly dependent on a small group of companies delivering exactly what markets expect.

The recent selloff in Microsoft after strong headline earnings showed this clearly.

Profits beat estimates, yet concerns about cloud growth and AI investment timelines wiped out hundreds of billions in market value in a single session.

Asia looks different. Semiconductor supply chains benefit earlier in the cycle, long before end demand fully shows up in revenue.

Equipment makers, materials suppliers, and manufacturers see orders rise while monetization questions are still being debated elsewhere.

On top of that, Asia’s earnings are supported by sectors that have little to do with AI hype, including shipbuilding, capital goods, and energy transition infrastructure.

Corporate behavior also plays a role. Japan’s push for higher returns on equity and better capital allocation has translated into buybacks and dividends that anchor valuations.

Korea is moving more slowly, but directionally, the same pressure exists. These changes do not create headlines. They do, however, change how downside risk is absorbed.

Valuation tells a story about risk, not optimism

Asian equities still trade at a discount to US markets. That fact alone is not new. What is new is how that discount lines up with actual risk.

Asia remains priced for problems investors already understand. Slower Chinese growth, trade friction, governance concerns, and regional geopolitics are embedded in valuations.

For many markets, the bar for positive surprise is low.

US equities are priced for delivery. Growth must continue. Margins must hold. Regulation must remain manageable.

Any deviation forces repricing, as recent earnings reactions show.

This difference explains why capital flows have started to move. In January, emerging market and Asia-focused ETFs saw net inflows while US equity flows turned selective.

This is not leverage chasing returns. It is reallocation away from crowded trades where expectations are already high.

There is also a policy angle.

The Federal Reserve has little room to act quickly without risking inflation optics or political backlash.

Several Asian policymakers retain more flexibility, whether through tolerance for modest inflation or targeted support for strategic industries.

Markets value that optionality even when it is not immediately used.

The story does not rely on Asia becoming the world’s growth engine overnight.

It rests on relative pricing. As long as US equities demand near-perfect execution and Asia does not, the balance of risk and reward stays tilted.

Asian equities will not rise in a straight line. They will react sharply to China headlines, trade disputes, and currency moves.

Yet for the first time in years, investors are responding differently. Weakness is being bought rather than feared.

US disappointments are being sold rather than explained away.

That behavioral change tends to last longer than a single earnings season.

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Rolls-Royce share price has pulled back in the past few weeks, moving from a record high of 1.307p to the current 1,210p. It remains 1,800% above its lowest level in September 2022. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the RR stock in February 2026.

Rolls-Royce share price to react to earnings 

The main catalyst for the Rolls-Royce stock price is the upcoming full-year earnings, which will come out on February 26. 

These results will provide more color about its business last year and whether the growth trajectory accelerated.

The most recent consensus among analysts is that its full-year revenue came in at £19.5 billion, much higher than the £17.8 billion it made in the previous year. 

Additionally, analysts expect that its underlying EBIT rose to £3.26 billion, while its profit before tax (PBT) rose to £3.14 billion. 

Rolls-Royce Holdings’ growth will likely continue in the coming years, with analysts expecting its revenue to rise to £21.5 billion this year, followed by £23.3 billion and £25.3 billion in the next two consecutive years.

The company’s profitability is also expected to continue growing, with the underlying profit before tax (PBT) will move to £4.6 billion, up from £3.1 billion.

Still, on the positive side, there is a possibility that the company’s report will be much higher than expected, as it has done in the past. For one, General Electric Aerospace reported strong financial results and boosted its guidance, which is notable as their businesses are related.

Rising geopolitical tensions 

The Rolls-Royce share price will also react to the potential geopolitical events in February because it is one of the biggest players in the defense industry.

One of the main geopolitical events is the potential US attack on Iran. Such a move has a chance to lead to more demand for its military equipment, which have become more popular in the past few years. 

The company, like other defense contractors such as BAE Systems, Babcock International, and Leonardo, is benefiting from the ongoing boost in European defense spending as countries express their concerns about the United States.

Airbus earnings 

Rolls-Royce’s biggest business is its civil aviation, which provides engines to wide body aircrafts such as A350 and A330. Its engines also power some Boeing 787 planes.

Therefore, the upcoming Airbus earnings on February 19 will have some impact on its stock to some extent. Signs that Airbus continued boosting its production will be bullish for the Rolls-Royce stock.

The most recent results showed that Airbus delivered 507 aircraft in the past nine months of the year, while its revenue rose to €47.4 billion, while its EBIT moved to €3.4 billion.

Rolls-Royce share price technical analysis

RR stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Rolls-Royce stock price has pulled back in the past few weeks, moving from a high of 1,307p to the current 1,210p.

It has retested the key support level at 1,196p, its highest level in September last year. This means that it has formed a break-and-retest pattern, which is a common bullish continuation sign.

The stock has also formed a bullish flag pattern,which is made up of a vertical line and a descending channel. It has also moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the year-to-date high of 1,307p. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at 1,500p. 

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Oracle has said it expects to raise between $45 billion and $50 billion in 2026 to expand capacity for its cloud infrastructure, signalling one of its largest capital-raising efforts as demand for artificial intelligence and cloud services accelerates.

The software company said the funds would be split roughly evenly between equity and debt, reflecting an effort to finance rapid expansion while preserving its investment-grade credit rating.

The announcement comes amid growing scrutiny of Oracle’s debt levels and its increasing reliance on a handful of large customers, particularly OpenAI.

Balanced mix of equity and debt

Oracle said it plans to raise around half of the funds through equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity programme of up to $20 billion.

The remaining capital would be raised through senior unsecured bonds, which the company plans to issue early in 2026.

“Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including AMD, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others”, the company said in a statement.

“This funding plan reflects Oracle’s commitment to maintaining an investment-grade rating, prudent capital allocation, balance-sheet strength and transparency with investors as the company continues to expand its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business,” it said.

Investor concerns over debt and exposure

Oracle, long viewed as a smaller cloud player compared with Amazon, Microsoft and Google, has faced criticism over the scale of its debt-fuelled expansion and the perceived concentration risk of relying heavily on a single customer.

Investors have increasingly questioned Oracle’s aggressive spending on AI infrastructure, particularly as its debt rises and its fortunes become more closely tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has yet to detail how it plans to finance its own infrastructure expansion.

Oracle is seen as being “way too exposed and levered to OpenAI, but in the worst way,” Mizuho trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein wrote in a note to clients late last month.

He said Oracle’s exposure is tilted toward OpenAI’s training operations, while the more attractive growth opportunity lies in inference—the stage where AI models generate predictions using new data.

Bondholders have sued Oracle

Last month, bondholders led by the Ohio Carpenters’ Pension Plan filed a lawsuit alleging that Oracle failed to disclose the extent of additional debt required to support its AI build-out.

The proposed class action was filed on behalf of investors who purchased $18 billion in Oracle notes and bonds issued in September, following a $300 billion contract with OpenAI.

The plaintiffs said they were surprised when Oracle returned to capital markets just seven weeks later to secure $38 billion in loans for data centre construction tied to the OpenAI deal.

Concerns over Oracle’s financial trajectory have also been reflected in credit markets.

The cost of insuring Oracle’s debt against default rose sharply in December to its highest level in at least five years.

Analysts see equity issuance as a positive

Analysts have argued that issuing equity could help reassure the market that Oracle is serious about maintaining its credit profile.

John DiFucci of Guggenheim said in a January note that equity issuance would send a clear signal of the company’s commitment to preserving its investment-grade rating.

Others see the funding plan as a step toward restoring confidence.

Siti Panigrahi of Mizuho said the announcement could reassure investors who had been seeking clarity on Oracle’s financing strategy.

“In our recent investor conversations, several investors highlighted the need for greater clarity on Oracle’s funding strategy and explicitly noted that an equity component would help restore confidence despite modest dilution,” he wrote.

The “balanced” plan released on Sunday “reduces uncertainty” and also could “reduce fears of over-reliance on debt financing,” Panigrahi said.

Gil Luria of DA Davidson & Co said that successfully executing the capital raise would mark an important turning point for Oracle, helping it address the financial pressures created by its ambitious expansion.

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The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 Indices remained in a tight range on Monday as market participants waited for major macro events and earnings from British companies. This article explores some of the top catalysts to watch this week.

FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices to react to Bank of England interest rate decision

One of the main catalysts for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices will be the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision, which will happen on Thursday this week.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% as officials remain concerned about the elevated inflation.

The most recent results showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.8% in December, higher than the bank’s target of 2.0%. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, has also remained at an elevated level in the past few months.

Still, most officials, including Andrew Bailey, the bank’s governor, believe that inflation will continue falling in the coming months.

The BoE outlook explains why UK bond yields have remained unchanged in the past few months. Data shows that the ten-year bond yield has remained unchanged at 4.50%, while the five-year was at 4.6%.

Top UK companies to publish earnings 

The other key catalyst for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices are the upcoming earnings from some of the biggest companies in the UK.

GSK, a major pharmaceutical valued at over $103 billion, will release its results on Wednesday. 

Shell, the biggest energy company in Europe, will release it on Thursday. These numbers come as the energy market continued doing well because of the rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

Unilever, a major player in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Industry (FCMG), will release its numbers on Thursday.

More companies like Entain, Watches of Switzerland BT Group, Compass Group, and Vodafone will also publish their numbers.

On top of this, hundreds of American companies, including popular names like Amazon and Google, will publish their financial results. Historically, these companies often have an impact on the global financial market.

Commodity prices to impact UK stocks

The other major catalyst for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices is the performance of key commodities. Gold, copper, and silver prices tumbled on Monday, affecting key companies in the industry.

Indeed, data shows that the Fresnillo stock price crashed by 7% as silver plunged. Fresnillo is one of the biggest silver miners globally. It has been one of the best-performing companies in FTSE 100 Index in the past few months as silver jumped.

Endeavour Mining’s stock price dropped by 6.8% as gold prices dropped. Other mining companies like Antofagasta, Anglo American, Rio Tinto,and Glencore were among the top laggards in the FTSE 100 Index on Monday.

Geopolitical events to impact British stocks

The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices will also react to the upcoming geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Donald Trump has warned that he may attack Iran as soon as his armada near the region. Trump has accused the Iranian regime of killing protestors and for having nuclear ambitions. Also, Trump wants Iran to dismantle its civilian nuclear ambitions and limit its ballistic missile program.

An attack would have major implications in the US and UK equities as it would lead to higher oil prices and inflation. It would also disrupt the travel activity in the region, affecting companies like IAG and EasyJet.

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Crude oil declined more than 5% on Monday as easing tensions between the US and Iran erased the geopolitical premium on prices. 

Oil prices marked their steepest single-session drop in over six months on Monday. 

This fall was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s statement that Iran was engaged in “seriously talking” with Washington, a signal of de-escalation with the OPEC member country.

Geopolitical de-escalation triggers steepest drop

Brent crude futures fell by $3.31, or 4.8%, to $65.99 per barrel.

Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude also saw a decline, dropping $3.37, or 5.2%, to $61.85 per barrel.

The two contracts plummeted from multi-month peak values following remarks made by Trump over the weekend, which eased concerns about a potential military action against Iran.

A stronger US dollar was cited by analysts as a partial cause of the slump, which was also fueled by a wider sell-off in commodities, particularly significant losses in gold and silver.

“A broader correction across financial markets has added to the downward momentum,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said in a note. 

Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, stated that preparations for talks were in progress, just hours before Trump informed reporters on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking” about negotiations.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that signs of de-escalation were present, citing both Trump’s comments and reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces had canceled plans for live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ maintains supply pause amid easing tensions

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies have confirmed that its policy of pausing supply increases will remain in effect through March, extending the three-month freeze initially agreed upon in November. 

This decision was reaffirmed over the weekend by eight major members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, despite the recent surge in prices. 

While the extension is confirmed, the group provided no indications of its policy direction beyond the first quarter, ahead of its upcoming meeting scheduled for 1 March.

“All in all, the oil market remains well supplied, although the oversupply is not quite as high as initially assumed thanks to supply disruptions and slightly stronger demand,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

This week’s inventory data is anticipated to offer clarity on the scale of the disruptions across the US, according to Lambrecht.

As soon as geopolitical risks no longer dominate the headlines as much as they do at present, prices are likely to fall again. 

Slack US drilling and bullish speculative positioning

Meanwhile, drilling activity in the US is still slack, with weak prices suppressing investment.

According to Baker Hughes data, the US oil rig count held steady at 411 last week. 

While the total rig count (oil and gas) slightly increased to 546, it remains 36 rigs below the level recorded a year ago.

“Expectations for a sizeable surplus this year suggest US crude output growth will remain constrained into 2026,” ING’s Patterson said.

Speculative positioning shows that recent geopolitical tension encouraged fresh buying ahead of today’s declines. 

Last week, money managers boosted their net long positions in ICE Brent by 29,947 lots, marking the largest bullish commitment since September 2025.

Net long positions for NYMEX WTI climbed for the eighth consecutive week, increasing by 9,557 lots to reach their highest level since August 2025. 

This rise was partially fueled by the extreme cold weather, which caused disruptions to refinery operations along the US Gulf Coast.

Moreover, all eyes in the oil market will be on the geopolitical narrative this week as easing tensions may lead to a more pronounced price drop with plentiful supply.   

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The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, like SPY, IVV, and VOO, remained in a tight range close to the all-time high after key earnings from some of the biggest American companies last week. They also wavered after Donald Trump announced his nominee for the Federal Reserve on Friday. This article looks at some of the top catalysts for the index this week.

S&P 500 Index to react to key earnings 

The S&P 500 Index remained slightly below the all-time high after top companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Meta Platforms published their financial results last week. 

Apple reported strong earnings but warned about the memory shortage in the industry, while Microsoft’s stock dropped after the company noted that its cloud revenue growth was slowing. Meta Platforms reported strong financial results, pushing its stock to a record high.

33% of all companies in the S&P 500 Index have published their financial results, with the blended earnings growth of 11.9%. If this is the final figure, it will mark the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth.

This week will see more S&P 500 constituent companies publish their financial results. The most notable ones are companies like Amazon and Google.

The others are Palantir, Walt Disney, AMD, Merck, Pfizer, PayPal, Eli Lilly, Qualcomm, Uber, ConocoPhillips, and KKR. In total, over 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 Index will publish their results this week.

There will be major corporate news, including news that Bob Eiger is considering resigning before his term ends and that the deal by NVIDIA to invest in OpenAI was on ice.

Potential US strike on Iran

The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index will be on geopolitics. In a statement last week, Donald Trump warned Iranian leaders to talk with the United States about ending its nuclear program. This statement was notable as Trump claimed that he completely obliterated the program last year.

Most analysts believe that Trump’s goal in Iran is purely on regime change, a move that Israel has supported for years. 

Iran has threatened that any attack from the United States will attract a major retaliation, which explains why the crude oil price has jumped in the past few weeks, with the price of crude oil soaring to $70.

The country has some notable options, including disrupting trade at the Strait of Hormuz, hitting Israel, and attacking US bases in the region.

US non-farm payrolls data 

The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs will be the upcoming macro data, which will have a major impact on the financial market.

The US will publish the latest jobs numbers on Friday. Economists expect the data to show that the economy added over 70,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.

This report comes a week after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision. As was widely expected, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%.

Most importantly, the upcoming report comes a week after Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to become the next Federal Reserve Chair. While Warsh has supported some of Trump’s deregulation efforts, he has always been an inflation hawk.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that Warsh will become more like Jerome Powell, who promised Trump of rate cuts only for him to maintain a more hawkish view.

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