Tonight’s digest captures markets and geopolitics colliding in real time.

In Abu Dhabi, Zelenskyy’s trilateral talks with Russia and the US deliver optics, not breakthroughs, as territorial red lines harden into a durable stalemate.

In corporate America, Amazon’s sweeping job cuts underscore that Big Tech’s efficiency drive is structural, not cyclical.

Meanwhile, investors are stampeding into safe havens, sending precious metals to record highs, while Bitcoin’s $100,000 narrative fades fast under renewed macro pressure.

Zelenskyy gambles on Abu Dhabi as territorial stalemate deepens

First trilateral talks in four years kicked off Friday night in Abu Dhabi, with Ukraine, Russia, and the US finally in the same room.

But don’t mistake the optics for momentum. Zelenskyy just confirmed what everyone already knew: territory is the deal-breaker.

Putin demands Ukraine cede the remaining 25% of Donetsk it controls; Zelenskyy flatly refuses, citing constitutional grounds and battlefield realities, his forces hold land Russia couldn’t take in years of brutal grinding.

The security guarantees? Done. The reconstruction plan? Nearly finalized. The land? Unsolvable.

Witkoff’s pre-talks hint that “most issues” are settled was a cover for deep divisions.

Zelenskyy countered with dark humor in Davos: “Russians must compromise too, not just Ukraine.” Mathematically, this is theater.

Amazon’s 30,000-job purge accelerates

Amazon’s swinging the axe again.

After cutting 14,000 white-collar jobs in October, the e-commerce giant is set to eliminate another 14,000 corporate roles starting January 27, bringing its total restructuring target to nearly 30,000, the largest layoff in company history.

The second wave will hammer AWS, retail, Prime Video, and the People Experience and Technology (HR) division.

Jassy is shifting the blame from AI to “cultural fit” and bureaucratic bloat, claiming the pandemic created layers of middle management that slow decision-making.

Employees facing termination got 90 days of full pay and severance, with preferential consideration for internal transfers.

Translation for markets: Amazon’s remaking its workforce while profitable, signaling that tech’s efficiency obsession is structural, not cyclical.

Precious metals breaking records on geopolitical chaos

Gold shattered its all-time high Friday, kissing $4,967 per ounce, a 14.2% jump in just 23 days.

Silver hit $99.34, within spitting distance of the mythical $100 threshold.

Platinum posted a fresh record at $2,749. The holy trinity of safe havens is screaming capital flight from US assets. Fed rate-cut expectations for late 2026 are evaporating real yields, making non-yielding gold suddenly attractive.

But here’s the nuance: India’s precious metals market is getting flooded with financial flows, ₹15,000-16,000 crore poured in December alone, rather than traditional jewelry demand.

Silver’s industrial narrative (solar, EVs, electronics) is layering onto safe-haven buying, explaining its 150% outperformance versus gold over 12 months.

Bitcoin’s $100K dream deflates as macro headwinds resurface

Bitcoin’s collapse from $97,000 to $89,000 in eight days has flipped the narrative hard.

Prediction market odds for a dump to $69,000 tripled in 24 hours, from 11.6% last Thursday to 30% Friday, signaling capitulation among retail and semi-pro traders.

The whipsaw is brutal: Trump’s tariff threats triggered $865 million in liquidations; his pause sent BTC bouncing to $90K; then reality set in.

Open interest in derivatives has stalled between 240,000-265,000 BTC for ten straight days, meaning zero new money flowing in.

Gold’s record-breaking rally is cannibalizing risk appetite; investors are rotating into safe havens, not digital assets. The structural case for $100,000 looked airtight two weeks ago.

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Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) jumped about 4% today, putting the tech heavyweight back in the spotlight as investors reassess both its fundamentals and its valuation.

An industry comparison from Benzinga suggests Microsoft continues to stand out versus software peers on growth, profitability, and balance sheet strength, even as the signals across valuation metrics remain mixed.

With shares recently trading around the mid-$450s, the key question for markets is whether this rally reflects durable earnings power or simply renewed enthusiasm priced in.

Microsoft stock: what is happening and why it matters

Benchmarking Microsoft against major software names, Benzinga reports a Price to Earnings ratio of 32.09 versus an industry average of 55.5 and a Price to Book of 9.24 versus 15.9, suggesting a discount on earnings and book value.

Its Price to Sales of 11.46 exceeds the 6.62 average, pointing to a richer sales multiple.

The company’s EBITDA of $48.06 billion and gross profit of $53.63 billion far surpass industry averages, and revenue growth of 18.43% is ahead of the 13.03% peer baseline.

Shares recently traded at $454.59, up 0.76%, according to Benzinga.

Seeking Alpha notes the stock has fallen roughly 12% since a prior bullish write-up despite recent positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions, framing an ongoing debate around valuation and momentum.

Valuation and profitability metrics

On valuation, Microsoft’s P/E of 32.09 and P/B of 9.24 are below the industry averages of 55.5 and 15.9, respectively, indicating comparatively lower pricing on earnings and book value.

Its P/S of 11.46 is well above the 6.62 average, implying a premium on revenue relative to peers.

Return on equity stands at 7.85% versus the 10.14% industry average, which suggests lower equity efficiency.

However, profit scale is a clear differentiator.

Benzinga’s data shows EBITDA of $48.06 billion versus an industry average of $1.03 billion and gross profit of $53.63 billion versus $1.59 billion, highlighting substantial operating heft and cash generation.

Growth and competitive context

Microsoft’s revenue growth of 18.43% outpaces the industry average of 13.03%, signaling continued sales expansion.

Benzinga’s peer set spans large and mid-cap software and security companies, offering a broad frame of reference for these comparisons.

The company operates across three segments, according to Benzinga: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing.

That mix underscores exposure to enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and consumer platforms.

Benzinga reports a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, lower than the top four peers it compared, indicating less reliance on debt financing and a relatively stronger balance sheet position.

Recent stock performance

Per Benzinga, the stock was at $454.59, up 0.76%.

According to Seeking Alpha, shares have declined roughly 12% since a prior bullish analysis, even as the company delivered positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions in recent months.

That divergence between fundamentals and price performance is a focal point for investors assessing risk and reward.

Benzinga’s data shows Microsoft trading at a discount on earnings and book, a premium on sales, and delivering above-average growth with strong profit scale and low leverage.

According to Seeking Alpha, the stock’s recent pullback despite beats and upward revisions keeps attention on how far the current multiples can stretch relative to peers.

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The World Economic Forum’s 56th annual meeting concluded Friday evening in Davos with a sobering realization that the international order that governed global finance and politics since World War II seems dead.

What emerged over those five days is a world fragmenting into competing power blocs, with technological disruption arriving faster than anyone expected.

The financial markets are still pricing neither the downside risks nor the upside opportunities of this fundamental shift.​

Trump’s Greenland play reshapes Arctic geopolitics

President Trump’s Wednesday meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte produced a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland and Arctic security that signaled a seismic shift in how Washington views its alliances and borders.

While Trump stopped short of explicitly threatening military force, the diplomatic message was clear: NATO’s Danish ally is now negotiating how to retain sovereignty.​

On Ukraine, Trump claimed he was “very close” to a ceasefire deal, but warned both Russia and Ukraine that failure to negotiate would be “stupid.”

The implicit threat was direct as the US could withdraw support if peace talks stall.

Carney declares the rules-based order ‘dead’

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney articulated what every major world leader had come to accept, but few will admit publicly: the rules-based international order “no longer works.”

His Tuesday speech called 2026 a “rupture, not a transition,” not a temporary disruption but a structural break in how the world operates.

His language was blunt. The multilateral institutions that governed post-war cooperation, the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and regional development banks, are “under threat.”

In their place, countries are seeking “greater strategic autonomy” in energy, food, critical minerals, and supply chains.

Carney’s most damning observation: “When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.”​

Remarkably, no major leader at Davos argued to restore the old order.

Instead, discussions centered on positioning for a new world of regional blocs: a US-led bloc, a China-led bloc, and an increasingly contested middle ground where countries like India, Indonesia, and Brazil try to navigate between rivals.

Musk compresses AGI timeline, and Tesla’s market bet

Elon Musk’s first-ever Davos appearance delivered the kind of timelines that immediately move markets.

He said Tesla expects Full Self-Driving regulatory approval in Europe by February 2026 and humanoid robots for public sale by the end of next year.

Most provocatively, he predicted artificial general intelligence could arrive by year-end 2026, with all of humanity combined surpassed by 2030 or 2031.​

Tesla’s stock surged 3% on these remarks.

The market implications are enormous. Tesla’s current valuation assumes the Optimus humanoid robot will eventually become a multimillion-unit business.

If Musk’s timeline holds and these robots actually ship functional by 2027, Tesla’s addressable market expands from $2 trillion to over $100 trillion (replacement of human labor across industries). ​

Jensen Huang’s $85 trillion question

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reframed AI not as speculative hype but as the “largest infrastructure buildout in human history”: $85 trillion over 15 years.

His most revealing observation was about GPU spot prices rising, not just for the latest chips but for models two generations old.

When commodity prices rise in a supposed bubble, it signals a shortage, not excess. Huang argued this proves demand is genuine and accelerating.​

Energy contracts are spiking as electricity becomes the binding constraint; companies can’t run AI without stable power. This infrastructure layer is still early stage, suggesting that capex will accelerate further.​

The IMF admits what no one wants to address

IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva stated plainly: 40% of jobs globally will be disrupted by AI in the coming years, and in advanced economies, it’s 60%.

Yet there exists no global framework for retraining, social support, or workforce transition.

Without coordinated retraining programs, she warned, AI-driven job displacement will fuel political fragmentation and populism exactly when global cooperation is most needed.​

Georgieva framed the scale as “a tsunami hitting the labor market,” but the real crisis lies in the uneven distribution of opportunities.

She warned of what she called “the accordion of opportunities,” a widening gap where wealthy nations with robust education systems, digital infrastructure, and capital reserves will adapt quickly to AI, while poorer countries lack the resources to upskill workers or invest in AI adoption.

Markets are pricing an orderly transition with modest earnings growth.

They are not pricing either extreme: the downside of geopolitical chaos, collapsing trade, or the upside of AI/robotics creating markets so vast they dwarf current valuations.

The next week’s earnings season will determine which narrative dominates.

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The Walt Disney Company remains on track to appoint a new chief executive early this year, as the entertainment giant moves closer to resolving a long-running succession process and faces renewed pressure to revive its underperforming stock.

In a letter to shareholders released late Thursday, board chairman James Gorman said Disney expects “to announce the appointment of the Company’s next CEO in early 2026.”

Gorman, the former Morgan Stanley chief executive, was appointed in August 2024 to chair Disney’s succession planning committee.

A decade of underperformance weighs on the transition

One of the most immediate challenges facing Disney’s next leader will be restoring investor confidence after a prolonged period of stock underperformance.

Over the past decade, Disney shares have risen just 17%, compared with a 263% gain for the S&P 500 and a 729% surge for streaming rival Netflix.

The muted returns have come despite Disney’s global brand strength and diversified businesses across theme parks, media networks, and streaming.

There have been some recent signs of improvement, with theme parks emerging as a steady and reliable source of cash flow and the Disney+ streaming platform beginning to generate profits amid intense competition.

Still, analysts and investors see the leadership transition as a critical opportunity to reset strategy and address concerns about growth, capital allocation, and shareholder returns.

Succession process intensifies under the board

Disney’s board has been working steadily toward a decision.

According to a regulatory filing on Thursday, the company’s succession committee met five times during the last fiscal year as it narrowed the field of candidates to succeed Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger.

The company reiterated that a successor will be named in early 2026, ahead of its annual shareholder meeting scheduled for March 18.

In 2020, when Iger previously stepped aside, his successor was announced roughly two weeks before the annual meeting.

As part of the process, Disney has been seeking shareholder feedback on a new compensation structure for its next CEO.

Internal candidates are undergoing what the company described as a rigorous preparation programme, including mentorship from Iger, external coaching, and direct engagement with all board members.

Bloomberg News has previously reported that four divisional chiefs are in contention, though the race is widely viewed as narrowing to two leading candidates: parks chief Josh D’Amaro, 54, and Dana Walden, 61, co-chair of Disney Entertainment.

Broader leadership changes and retention efforts

The CEO search is unfolding alongside broader leadership moves aimed at maintaining stability.

Last week, Disney said it would appoint Dave Filoni to replace Kathleen Kennedy as head of its Star Wars franchise, a significant creative leadership change within one of the company’s most valuable intellectual properties.

Disney has also renewed contracts with other senior executives, including its chief financial officer and chief legal officer, in an effort to retain key leaders through the transition period.

The company disclosed that Iger, 74, earned $45.8 million in total compensation last year, up from $41.1 million the year before, underscoring the scale of executive pay as the board seeks shareholder input on future remuneration.

As Disney approaches a pivotal leadership decision, investors will be watching closely to see whether a new chief executive can translate operational strengths into sustained shareholder returns.

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After days dominated by geopolitical tensions tied to US President Donald Trump’s Greenland ambitions and renewed tariff threats toward European allies, global markets are heading into a pivotal week shaped less by diplomacy and more by data, earnings and central bank signals.

A heavy slate of corporate results and a closely watched Federal Reserve interest rate decision promise to test investor nerves at a time when markets are already under strain.

Mega-cap tech earnings take centre stage

Four members of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Apple — are scheduled to report quarterly earnings in the coming days.

Together, the group represents roughly $10 trillion in market capitalisation, accounting for about 16% of the S&P 500.

Their results arrive at a delicate moment.

US equities are mired in their weakest stretch since last summer, Treasury bonds have struggled to regain footing, gold has surged to test $5,000 an ounce for the first time, and geopolitical risks continue to loom large.

Against that backdrop, the first wave of mega-cap tech earnings in 2026 carries unusually high stakes.

Investors will be looking not only for strong results, but for reassurance that growth engines such as artificial intelligence spending can justify lofty valuations.

Artificial intelligence under the microscope

While the Magnificent Seven’s grip on day-to-day market direction has loosened, their influence remains significant.

Management commentary on AI demand, data centre investment and the path to profitability will be closely scrutinised.

A defining theme this earnings season is whether companies are beginning to see tangible returns from heavy investment in AI infrastructure.

Concerns that vast spending on data centres and related technologies would fail to deliver profits weighed on tech stocks late last year, after AI had powered much of the bull market’s earlier gains.

Brad Gastwirth, global head of research at Circular Technology, believes the tone may be shifting.

“This earnings season feels meaningfully different,” he said in a Wall Street Journal report, adding that companies are likely to emphasise growing AI pipelines, strong backlog visibility and tight supply chains as signs of durable growth rather than pulling back guidance due to macro uncertainty.

Others remain more cautious.

Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned in the report that AI overspending and overhype remain risks, particularly given how close valuations and capital expenditure levels are to past peaks.

For now, she said, scepticism around the AI trade appears to be driving a healthy rotation and improved risk management within US equities.

Beyond Mag 7, earnings season to test market rotation, valuation

Beyond the headline tech names, just over 100 companies are set to report fourth-quarter results next week, offering fresh guidance on near-term prospects.

Their commentary could either reinforce or challenge the recent rotation away from technology and growth stocks toward more traditional value sectors.

The S&P 500, coming off its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, is up about 1% so far this year.

Valuations, however, remain elevated, with the index trading above 22 times expected earnings — well above its long-term average of 15.9.

“The earnings bar had better be met,” said Chris Galipeau, senior market strategist at Franklin Templeton, in a Reuters report, noting that stretched valuations leave little room for disappointment.

Federal Reserve decision looms

Earnings will share the spotlight with monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank cut rates by a quarter percentage point at each of its final three meetings of 2025, and futures markets are pricing in at least one more cut later this year, according to LSEG data.

Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, expects an extended pause.

“With the fed funds rate close to neutral, easing labour market risks and inflation having peaked, there is little urgency to move,” he said.

However, the meeting is likely to be overshadowed by questions about the Fed’s political independence.

It follows reports that Fed chair Jerome Powell faced legal threats from the Trump administration — claims Powell dismissed as a pretext for pressuring the central bank into deeper rate cuts.

Trump is also weighing a nominee to replace Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, adding another layer of uncertainty to the policy outlook.

Alongside the Fed decision, investors will parse key jobs and inflation data and closely watch Treasury auctions totalling $183 billion, which could offer an early read on concerns around a potential “Sell America” trade.

Geopolitics remain a wildcard

Yet geopolitics remains an ever-present risk. Any escalation related to Greenland, tariffs, or other policy shocks could quickly sour sentiment.

“If the Greenland situation were to go off the rails, combined with tariff threats, that would certainly dent confidence and put markets under pressure,” Galipeau said.

As markets head into a dense and consequential week, investors are bracing for a stretch where earnings credibility, central bank resolve and political stability will all be tested at once.

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Gold is knocking on the $5,000-per-ounce door after a historic 66% rally in 2025, driven by geopolitical shocks, a weakening dollar, and relentless central bank buying of the precious metal.

The impressive rally has investors reconsidering a critical decision: should they own bullion directly or buy exposure through exchange-traded funds?

The answer depends entirely on what gold means to you in your portfolio.​​

Spot gold touched nearly $4,987/oz this week, marking an all-time high. The rally has fueled unprecedented demand.

Record-breaking ETF inflows of $89 billion in 2025 signal that investors are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic monetary asset, not just a cyclical hedge.

Yet for those preferring tangible ownership, physical premiums have created new complications.

In India, gold premiums surged to their highest level in a decade, with dealers charging an extra $112 per ounce on top of spot prices as investors rushed to buy ahead of an expected import duty increase in the February budget.​​

Why gold is charging toward $5,000

The macro forces underpinning gold’s ascent remain intact. Geopolitical uncertainty keeps investors defensive.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further in 2026, which makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.

Most importantly, central banks continue accumulating gold at levels not seen in decades.

Emerging market diversification into bullion reflects a deliberate shift away from dollar dependency, a trend analysts expect to persist.​

Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, called this shift “a new geomacro regime” where gold functions as a strategic monetary asset amid fiscal dominance risks and geopolitical fragmentation.

She projects gold could average $4,500 per ounce in 2026, with upside scenarios reaching $5,400.

JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva frames gold as their “highest conviction long,” seeing it hitting $5,055 by late-2026 and potentially $6,000 by 2028.​

Physical vs. paper: Trade-offs and who should choose which

When buying physical gold, coins, or bars, expect to pay a retail premium of 5 to 10% above the spot price.

Storage and insurance add another layer of costs, typically running 0.5 to 1% annually or more, depending on security arrangements.

If you buy jewelry, the making charges add another 5 to 20% non-recoverable cost.

In India, physical purchases also carry a 3% sales tax. The upside is complete counterparty risk elimination and tangible ownership.​

Gold ETFs like GLD operate differently.

Expense ratios run just 0.25 to 0.50% annually, often cheaper than physical storage and insurance combined.

Trading occurs instantly during market hours. There’s no making charge, no GST burden, and no purity verification concerns.

The trade-off is that you own shares in a fund, not gold itself, introducing minor counterparty risk (though fully backed funds minimize this).​

For investors buying gold as an emergency hedge or sovereignty insurance, allocating 5 to 10% of portfolio weight to physical gold in a secured vault makes sense.

For portfolio diversifiers seeking pure liquid exposure, ETFs win on cost efficiency and convenience.

The decision comes down to your objective. If you’re hedging against systemic breakdown, hold some physical.

If you’re building diversification, go with ETFs. Either way, at $5,000 and climbing, ensure your allocation reflects your risk tolerance and time horizon.

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Global markets steadied on Thursday after President Donald Trump abruptly walked back his tariff threat linked to Greenland at Davos, sparking a relief rally in US and European equities, even as the details remain unclear.

In corporate news, Procter & Gamble beat profit expectations but missed revenue targets, pointing to softer consumer demand and new tariff pressure.

Commodities cooled too, with gold retreating from record highs as risk appetite returned.

Meanwhile, US spending held up, though widening inequality and a falling savings rate highlight underlying strain.

Trump’s U-turn on Greenland lifts sentiment

US President Trump abruptly dropped his tariff threat on Wednesday at Davos after meeting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, claiming a “framework” agreement on Greenland’s future.

Markets surged on relief, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, while European equities recovered lost ground.

Yet ambiguity persists: the specifics remain deliberately vague, with Trump vowing “total access” but declining to clarify ownership versus military basing rights.

Denmark maintains an ironclad stance; sovereignty is non-negotiable, period.

The framework hinges on renegotiating a 1951 defense pact and preventing Chinese/Russian Arctic encroachment, but Trump’s demand for permanent US control fundamentally clashes with Danish law.

European analysts remain cautious: Germany’s Klingbeil warned against “letting hopes rise too quickly,” while both Greenlandic residents and lawmakers expressed skepticism.

P&G beats profit but misses revenue

Procter & Gamble reported a mixed quarter Thursday, posting core earnings of $1.88 per share, beating estimates of $1.86, but falling short on revenue at $22.21 billion versus $22.28 billion expected.

The miss signals a consumer retrenchment beyond Wall Street’s radar: organic sales flat-lined as volumes sank 1%, offset only by 1% price hikes.

Laundry detergent and toilet paper sales weakened in the US, while cash-strapped households reduced spending on essentials, and a government shutdown delaying food assistance payments worsened the pain.

Beauty outperformed with 3% volume growth (Pantene, Olay), the sole bright spot representing 18% of sales.

P&G’s core gross margin fell for the fifth straight quarter, squeezed by Trump tariffs and packaging costs.

New CEO Shailesh Jejurikar expects H2 recovery but slashed full-year EPS guidance to 1-6% growth from 3-9%, citing $400 million in tariff headwinds.

Gold corrects from record highs

Gold retreated 0.8% to $4,796.75 per ounce on Thursday, pulling back from Wednesday’s record $4,887.82 peak after Trump abandoned tariff threats over Greenland, erasing a key risk-off catalyst.

The three-day rally that pushed bullion to all-time highs unwound as investors banked profits and appetite for safe-haven assets evaporated alongside geopolitical tensions.

A firmer dollar compounded pressure, gold priced in greenbacks becomes pricier for foreign buyers when the USD strengthens.

Platinum slid nearly 2% to $2,433 while silver dipped 0.1% to $93.19, both retreating from record highs.

Yet Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 from $4,900, citing persistent private investor diversification and central bank demand (projected 60 tons in 2026).

ANZ’s Kumari notes underlying support remains from geopolitical persistence and central bank backing despite near-term correction.

US consumer spending holds strong

US consumer spending rose 0.5% in both October and November, hitting the median economist forecast and fueling expectations for third-quarter GDP growth around 4.4%, with the Atlanta Fed projecting Q4 at 5.4%.

The resilience masks deepening inequality: higher-income households drove 2.4% YoY spending growth versus 0.4% for lower-income earners, a classic K-shaped recovery.

Notably, nearly half of November’s gains came from healthcare and energy spending, suggesting inelastic rather than discretionary demand.

Real spending (inflation-adjusted) gained only 0.3%, while personal savings collapsed to 3.5%, the lowest since October 2022, as income growth stalled at 0.3% after taxes.

PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually; core PCE was also flat at 2.8%. Tariffs inflated prices on goods while demand weakened for big-ticket items like electronics and appliances.

Bank of America data confirms lower-income households traded down 75% of categories, favoring small-ticket deals over luxury goods.

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Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD stock) continued the rally on Thursday after Wall Street’s most bullish analysts unleashed fresh upgrades focused on extraordinary demand for the chipmaker’s server processors.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh told clients that demand from hyperscalers has left AMD nearly depleted of server CPUs for the entire year, a constraint that could force a 10 to 15% price increase in the coming quarter.

The move underscores a broader awakening on Wall Street to AMD’s improving position in the trillion-dollar artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout.​

AMD stock: Catalysts behind the rally

The timing of the recent upgrades coincides with what AMD showed off at CES earlier this month.

The chipmaker unveiled its Ryzen AI 400 Series, a new generation of AI-enabled PC processors designed to bring artificial intelligence features to everyday laptops and desktops.

The new chips promise 1.3 times faster multitasking and are 1.7 times quicker at content creation tasks compared to competitors, according to AMD’s benchmarks.

Adoption of AMD’s AI PCs has already doubled year-over-year and now spans more than 250 platforms.​​

But the real money isn’t in consumer laptops. It’s in data centers.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who has been cautious on AMD historically, is becoming increasingly bullish on the company’s server business.

She projects that AMD’s high-performance EPYC server processors could grow 30% in 2026 and that AI-related revenues will gain momentum.

KeyBanc’s Vinh estimates AI-focused revenues alone could hit $14 billion to $15 billion in 2026, a staggering growth for a company that generated around $30 billion in total revenue last year.​

The supply constraint is crucial to understanding the upside.

If AMD is nearly sold out of server CPUs for 2026, the company has pricing power.

A 10 to 15% price increase would flow directly to the bottom line, boosting profit margins at a time when investor sentiment is already turning positive.

What investors are watching next

The real test arrives February 3, when AMD reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. Wall Street expects the company to beat both earnings and revenue estimates.

What matters more is forward guidance. If executives signal strong server demand and acknowledge the supply shortage, the AMD stock could accelerate toward analyst price targets now clustering in the $260 to $300 range. ​

Valuation does merit caution. AMD stock trades at a P/E multiple of 123 times earnings, meaning investors are pricing in substantial growth for years ahead.

A miss on guidance or any signal that demand is slowing would trigger sharp selling.

Additionally, the chipmaker faces ongoing competition from Nvidia on AI GPUs and from Intel, which is fighting to regain data center share.

The fundamentals, though, are strengthening.

With inventory nearly exhausted, pricing power intact, and AI infrastructure investment accelerating globally, AMD has momentum heading into 2026.

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Intel Corp. shares fell as much as 5% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the chipmaker issued a first-quarter outlook that missed Wall Street expectations, tempering optimism around its long-awaited turnaround.

The company forecast first-quarter revenue of about $12.2 billion at the midpoint of its guidance, below the $12.6 billion average estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

Intel also said it expects to break even on an earnings-per-share basis, compared with analysts’ projections of $0.08.

The cautious outlook contrasted with a better-than-feared fourth quarter, in which Intel delivered earnings and revenue above expectations.

The results underscore the tension facing the US chipmaker as it seeks to balance near-term cost pressures with longer-term bets on artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing.

AI demand lifts results, but costs loom large

Intel reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.15 a share, edging past both last year’s $0.13 and the $0.09 expected by analysts.

Revenue fell 4% from a year earlier to $13.7 billion but exceeded forecasts of $13.4 billion.

Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan pointed to rising demand for central processing units, or CPUs, used in AI workloads, particularly in data centres.

“Our conviction in the essential role of CPUs in the AI era continues to grow,” Tan said in a statement, adding that the company aims to sharpen execution and reinvigorate engineering excellence as it pursues AI opportunities across its businesses.

Intel’s adjusted gross margin came in at 37.9%, down from 42.1% a year ago but ahead of estimates.

Still, margins remain under pressure as the company ramps spending on its next-generation 18A manufacturing process and future nodes, investments seen as critical to restoring its competitiveness as a contract chipmaker.

Turnaround hopes face near-term headwinds

Intel remains the only large-scale US producer of leading-edge chips and has backing from the federal government, positioning it as a strategic counterweight to Asian manufacturing rivals.

Yet its product business continues to face intense competition from Advanced Micro Devices and Arm-based chip designs, while Nvidia dominates AI accelerators.

Wall Street sentiment toward Intel has improved in recent weeks, driven by stronger demand for traditional CPUs in data centers and enthusiasm around its upcoming Panther Lake chips designed for AI-powered PCs.

Firms including HSBC and KeyBanc raised their ratings, helping push Intel shares up nearly 12% this month and to their highest level in four years earlier this week.

That momentum now faces fresh scrutiny. Intel warned that rising costs for memory and storage components used alongside its processors could dampen demand for servers and PCs built around Intel chips, weighing on profitability.

Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said the company exceeded fourth-quarter expectations even as it “navigated industry-wide supply shortages,” highlighting execution improvements but also the fragile backdrop for growth as Intel pushes deeper into the AI era.

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TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance has finalized a long-anticipated deal to place the app’s US operations into a new, majority American-owned joint venture, securing US user data and averting a potential nationwide ban.

The agreement marks a major milestone after nearly five years of political, legal, and regulatory battles over national security concerns surrounding the short-form video platform, which is used by more than 200 million Americans.

The deal comes after years of scrutiny that began in August 2020, when then-President Donald Trump attempted to ban TikTok over concerns about Chinese government access to US user data.

A law passed in April 2024 required ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US assets by January 2025 or face a ban, a measure later upheld by the Supreme Court.

Trump later opted not to enforce the law, issuing executive orders that paused enforcement while negotiations continued.

Majority American ownership and investor structure

Under the agreement, the newly formed TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC will be owned 80.1% by American and global investors, with ByteDance retaining a 19.9% stake.

TikTok said the venture’s three managing investors—Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi-based MGX—will each hold 15%.

Other investors include Dell Family Office, Vastmere Strategic Investments, Alpha Wave Partners, Revolution, Merritt Way, Via Nova, Virgo LI, and NJJ Capital.

The joint venture will be governed by a seven-member board, the majority of whom are American.

Board members include TikTok CEO Shou Chew, TPG Global’s Timothy Dattels, Susquehanna International Group’s Mark Dooley, Silver Lake co-CEO Egon Durban, DXC Technology CEO Raul Fernandez, Oracle’s Kenneth Glueck, and MGX’s David Scott.
A White House official told Reuters that both the US and Chinese governments had signed off on the deal, though China has not issued a public statement.

Trump praised the agreement in a social media post, saying TikTok “will now be owned by a group of Great American Patriots and Investors, the Biggest in the World.”

He also thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping “for working with us and, ultimately, approving the Deal. He could have gone the other way, but didn’t, and is appreciated for his decision.”

Data security, algorithms and operations

TikTok said TikTok USDS Joint Venture “will operate under defined safeguards that protect national security through comprehensive data protections, algorithm security, content moderation, and software assurances for US users.”

The venture will secure US user data, apps, and algorithms through data privacy and cybersecurity measures, with TikTok’s content-recommendation algorithm hosted in Oracle’s US cloud.

The algorithm will be retrained, tested, and updated using US user data.

According to sources cited by Reuters previously, the venture will handle backend operations, US user data, and the algorithm, while a separate ByteDance-owned division will control revenue-generating businesses such as advertising and e-commerce.

The venture will receive a portion of revenue for its technology and data services.

Leadership and political context

Adam Presser, TikTok’s head of operations and trust and safety, has been appointed CEO of the new venture, while Will Farrell has been named chief security officer.

Chew will serve as a director while continuing to lead TikTok’s global business and strategy.

Trump, who has more than 16 million followers on TikTok, credited the app with helping him win reelection.

The White House launched an official TikTok account in August, underscoring the platform’s continued political relevance as it transitions to its new ownership structure.

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