The S&P 500 Index and its top ETFs, like the VOO and SPY, remained in a tight range near their all-time high last week. It was trading at $6,915, a few points below its all-time high of $6,980. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the index next week.

S&P 500 Index to react to government shutdown threat

The first key catalyst for the S&P 500 and its ETFs, like SPY and VOO, is the latest threat for a government shutdown in the United States. In a statement, Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, vowed to block a massive spending package this week.

He wants Republicans to stop funding the Department of Homeland Security after a Border Patrol agent shot and killed an American citizen in the ongoing protests in Minnesota. The government shutdown will likely happen this week.

In most cases, the S&P 500 Index and other US indices like the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 ignore government shutdowns because they always get resolved. For example, they all jumped to record highs after the longest government shutdown happened last year.

Top corporate earnings

The other major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index will be corporate earnings by some of the biggest companies in the United States.

Top members of the Magnificent 7, like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Apple, will release their numbers this week, while Google and Amazon will publish theirs next week.

These are usually the most important earnings events in the United States because of these companies’size, with their market capitalization rising to over $16 trillion.

Most importantly, these firms are at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and are the biggest clients of NVIDIA, a company that has fueled the boom.

Therefore, a sign that their capital spending will continue will be highly bullish for the stock market. However, a sign that they plan to cut spending will be highly bearish for the market.

Additionally, hundreds of S&P constituent companies like Boeing, UnitedHealth, RTX, Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and ExxonMobil will also release their earnings.

A report by FactSet shows that 13% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have published their earnings report, with the average earnings growth of 8.2%.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision 

The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs will also react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Economists believe that the bank will pause its interest rate cuts by leaving them unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Officials will do that so that their recent cuts can take effect in the United States.

The bank has delivered three cuts in the current cycle, with officials signaling that there will be one more cut this year. Recent macro data confirm that there is no need to cut rates this cycle as the economic growth has accelerated.

A report released last week showed that the US GDP expanded by 4.4% in the third quarter, with analysts expecting it to expand by 5% in Q4. 

US and Canada relations 

The other minor catalyst for the S&P 500 Index is the relationship between the United States and Canada, two countries that do trade worth billions of dollars a year.

In a statement during the weekend, Trump warned that he would implement a 100% tariff on Canada if it inks a trade deal with China. He said that in response to a deal that allows China to ship electric vehicles to Canada and pay a 6% tariff.

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Britain’s communications regulator Ofcom said on Friday it had opened an investigation into Meta Platforms over information the company provided relating to WhatsApp for one of its market reviews.

The regulator said the probe links to work it carried out last year on the wholesale market for business bulk SMS messages.

These services are widely used by companies to send high volumes of customer alerts, including appointment reminders and parcel delivery notifications.

Ofcom said the available evidence suggests the information it received from Meta may not have been complete and accurate.

What Ofcom is reviewing and why it matters

Ofcom said it is investigating whether Meta’s response to an information request met expected standards during the regulator’s market review process.

The watchdog said the review focused on the wholesale market for business bulk SMS messages, which typically involve automated updates sent at scale to customers.

The regulator did not specify what information it believes may have been missing or incorrect, but said the issue relates to WhatsApp.

The probe highlights how regulators rely on accurate data from major firms when assessing competitive conditions in communications markets, especially as platforms such as WhatsApp play a growing role in business messaging.

How business bulk SMS fits into UK communications markets

Business bulk SMS remains a key tool for organisations that need to deliver time-sensitive updates directly to customers.

The service is commonly used across sectors such as healthcare, logistics, retail, and financial services.

Unlike personal texts, these messages are usually sent through intermediaries that handle high-volume delivery, routing, and wholesale access.

Ofcom’s market review examined how the wholesale side of this ecosystem operates, and how services are supplied to business users.

Ofcom said the review was carried out last year. It added that its investigation concerns Meta’s information submission linked to WhatsApp as part of that work.

Meta faces multiple regulatory actions across Europe

The UK probe comes as Meta faces broader regulatory scrutiny across Europe, including investigations and decisions tied to advertising, competition, and AI-related platform changes.

In late November, a Spanish court ordered Meta to pay €479 million to a group of publishers, after finding the company breached EU rules by processing personal data without valid consent to support behavioural advertising.

The ruling covered the period from May 2018 to August 2023 and is subject to appeal.

Meta has also been under pressure in the European Union over its advertising model.

In Italy, the competition watchdog expanded a probe into Meta in late November, focusing on its AI integration in WhatsApp and whether WhatsApp Business changes could restrict rival AI chatbots.

In December, the European Commission said Meta committed to giving users a clearer choice around how their data is used for advertising on Facebook and Instagram, following a compliance push under the Digital Markets Act.

The new options are expected to roll out from January 2026.

Separately, the European Commission has been preparing a competition probe into Meta’s integration of AI features into WhatsApp, according to reports.

Regulators have been examining whether Meta’s policies could restrict access for rival AI providers, potentially strengthening Meta’s position inside the messaging platform.

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Oracle stock price continued its downtrend this year, moving to its lowest level since June last year. It has crashed by nearly 50% from its highest level in October last year, with its market capitalization falling from $935 billion to the current $511 billion. This article explores why it has more downside to go ahead of its earnings.

Oracle stock technical analysis points to more downside 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the ORCL stock peaked at $345 in September last year when it published its strong financial results.

It has been in a freefall since then and has now plunged to $176. Technicals suggest that the stock has more downside as it has formed a death cross pattern, which happens when the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross each other. 

The stock has moved slightly below the key support level at $177, invalidating the double-bottom pattern whose neckline is at $207. It has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

The Supertrend indicator has turned red, a sign that bears remain in control. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued falling in the past few weeks.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues falling, with the next key target being at $166, the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

This target is about 7.6% below the current level. A drop below this level will point to more downside, potentially to last year’s low of $117, down by 34% from the current level.

Why Oracle shares have plunged 

Oracle, one of the biggest companies in the United States, has come under pressure in the past few months as investors question its large backlog and its elevated debt and negative cash flow.

As a result, the consensus price target for the stock has dropped from $322 three months ago to the current $303, representing a 70% upside from the current level.

The most recent results showed that Oracle’s business continued growing in the last quarter as it became a major supplier in the artificial intelligence industry. Its remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped by 438% YoY to $523 billion, the highest one in the industry.

While this RPO is a big one, investors are concerned since most of it comes from OpenAI as part of the Stargate project. It is estimated that OpenAI accounts for about $300 billion of this order, a notable thing since it is still a highly unprofitable company. It is also entangled in similar deals worth over $1 trillion.

Oracle’s results showed that its revenue rose by 14% to $16.1 billion, while its earnings per share jumped by 91% to $2.1. Most of its growth came from its cloud infrastructure revenue, which rose by 68% to $4.1 billion, while the Fusion Cloud rose by 18%.

At the same time, the company’s debt continued rising, with the total debt rising by over $100 bilion. Therefore, investors are concerned about how the company will cover the upcoming maturities.

Data compiled by Yahoo Finance shows that the revenue will come in at $16.9 billion, up by 20% YoY, while its annual revenue will grow by 16% to $66 billion. This revenue will then jump to $86 billion in the next financial year. 

On the positive side, the ongoing Oracle stock crash has made it highly undervalued, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio moving to 2, lower than the sector median of 24. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues falling in the near term and then rebounds later this year as investors buy the dip.

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Nvidia stock rose early Friday after reports suggested that Chinese authorities are moving closer to allowing domestic technology companies to purchase the US chipmaker’s advanced artificial intelligence hardware, potentially easing one of the biggest uncertainties hanging over the stock.

At the time of writing, the Nvidia stock was up over

The rally followed a Bloomberg report that Beijing has given in-principle approval to several major Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent Holdings and ByteDance, to begin preparations for potential purchases of Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips.

The development marked the clearest signal yet that China may be softening its stance after weeks of regulatory ambiguity.

China signals shift after weeks of uncertainty

According to Bloomberg, Chinese regulators have cleared select technology companies to move to the next stage of discussions, allowing them to assess how many H200 chips they would need and to begin conversations around potential orders.

“The companies are now cleared to discuss specifics such as the amounts they would require,” the report said.

As part of the process, Beijing is expected to encourage firms to purchase a certain quantity of domestically produced chips alongside Nvidia’s hardware, though no formal quota has been set.

The move suggests Chinese authorities may be reassessing their approach after a period marked by contradictory signals.

In recent weeks, investors have grappled with reports of paused orders, selective approvals and shifting regulatory guidance, all of which weighed heavily on Nvidia’s stock.

Potential revenue upside draws attention

Analysts say the stakes are high if approvals ultimately translate into firm orders.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh estimated that Chinese companies could be willing to purchase around 1.5 million H200 chips, which would represent approximately $30 billion in potential revenue for Nvidia.

The H200 is Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI processor and is widely used for training large language models and other advanced artificial intelligence systems.

Access to the Chinese market for these chips has been viewed as critical to Nvidia’s long-term growth, particularly as demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand globally.

Huang visit adds to optimism

The Bloomberg report coincided with a separate CNBC report saying Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang is expected to visit China in the coming days, ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid-February.

Huang is scheduled to attend a company event in Beijing and is also expected to meet with potential customers.

According to the report, those discussions are likely to focus on supply constraints, regulatory conditions and the availability of US-approved chips, including the H200.

The visit has been interpreted by investors as another sign that Nvidia sees momentum building toward a reopening of the Chinese market.

China overhang has capped Nvidia’s stock

Access to China has been the single most persistent factor behind Nvidia’s range-bound trading over recent months.

While the company has continued to report strong global demand for its AI chips, uncertainty over Chinese sales has limited investors’ willingness to push the stock decisively higher.

Chief executive Jensen Huang has repeatedly expressed optimism that US export approvals would allow Nvidia to resume shipments of the H200 chip to China.

That confidence, however, has been undercut by Beijing’s inconsistent messaging and the risk of sudden policy reversals.

Those fears remain fresh after Nvidia took a $5.5 billion inventory write-down last year, when abrupt changes in export rules cut off its ability to sell China-specific chips.

Since then, investors have been wary of assuming that potential approvals will translate smoothly into sustained revenue.

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The precious metals market is witnessing records tumbling every trading week.

Gold on COMEX rose to a record high of $4,969.69 per ounce earlier on Friday, nearing the coveted $5,000-per-ounce mark.

Meanwhile, silver continued to outperform gold in dramatic fashion and came within a whisker of hitting $100 an ounce.

Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply on Friday after concerns about a potential disruption to supplies were heightened by US President Donald Trump’s renewed threats against Iran, which come at a time when Kazakhstan is also experiencing production outages.

Base metals prices also rose sharply on Friday as the dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies.

Silver hits $100

Silver prices on COMEX hit a historic landmark on Friday as the white metal breached the $100-per-ounce mark for the first time ever.

Silver soared over 6.5% on Thursday after the briefest period of consolidation. And it went on to break above $100 per ounce later on Friday.

The price of silver has thus more than tripled within a year, while the price of platinum has risen to two and a half times the level compared to a year ago. The gold/silver ratio is now 50, compared to 90 a year ago.

“This really looks like a market in the midst of a blow-off top, with talk of supply shortages and a massive short squeeze bringing in fresh buying momentum,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

There’s an awful lot of FOMO out there, and that has the potential to push prices up even further.

The extended nature of this rally naturally increases the likelihood of a significant and sudden reversal, Morrison added.

Silver looks toppy up here. But I’ve been saying that for ages now and have been repeatedly wrong.

At the time of writing, the most-active silver March contract was at $99.442 per ounce, up 3.1%. The metal had hit a record high of $100.160 per ounce earlier in the day.

Gold approached $5,000

Even as silver’s rise dwarfed that of gold’s, the yellow metal is well on its way to creating history.

On Friday, gold prices on COMEX hit a record high of $4,969.69 per ounce, just shy of the historic landmark of $5,000.

The 14% price increase since the year’s start is partially attributed to worries regarding US President Donald Trump’s stated intention to implement tariffs on European partners concerning Greenland.

Gold prices dipped briefly below $4,800 per ounce on Thursday. This drop followed President Trump’s announcement on Wednesday evening of an agreement resolving the Greenland dispute.

The agreement appears to have prevented a new round of tariff escalations by removing the planned tariff increases against several EU countries.

“However, gold did not fall back to the levels seen before the escalation of the conflict, but had essentially stabilized at higher levels,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG.

This already indicated that the market is still cautious about fully pricing out the risks associated with US ambitions in Greenland.

The speed of the finalisation is key, according to Nguyen. The unratified EU-US trade “deal,” stalled by recent tensions, shows that informal agreements are unreliable.

However, if it becomes increasingly clear that an amicable agreement will be reached between the US and Denmark and the EU, the gold price is likely to give up some of its gains of the last few days.

Oil jumps

Oil prices rebound on renewed threats from President Trump against Iran, which heightened concerns that military action could disrupt crude supplies.

This concern was compounded by ongoing production outages in Kazakhstan.

Earlier in the day, prices had risen due to Trump’s actions concerning Greenland.

However, they subsequently fell by approximately 2% on Thursday after he withdrew tariff threats against Europe and dismissed the possibility of military intervention.

The US has reached a deal with Denmark and NATO allowing “total access” to Greenland, according to a statement by President Trump on Thursday.

Simultaneously, Trump renewed warnings to Tehran, stating the US has an “armada” headed toward Iran, which he hopes will not be deployed.

He cautioned Iran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. A US official confirmed that warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East soon.

The US had previously conducted strikes on Iran last June.

Iran is a significant global oil producer, ranking as OPEC’s fourth-largest crude oil producer, with approximately 3.2 million barrels per day according to OPEC data.

It is positioned behind Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, Iran is a key exporter of crude oil to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Oil output has not yet restarted at Kazakhstan’s immense Tengiz oilfield, one of the globe’s largest, according to Chevron. This follows a shutdown announced by the Chevron-operated Tengizchevroil (TCO) on Monday due to a fire.

This incident has worsened the difficulties facing Kazakhstan’s oil sector, which is already struggling with congestion at its main Black Sea export route after it sustained damage from Ukrainian drone attacks.

“The next few weeks will reveal if the bears are ready to launch a renewed attack to drive prices to new cycle lows,” said Trade Nation’s Morrison.

Alternatively, there could be a change in trend if sellers switch to the buy-side.

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $61.04 per barrel, up 2.9%, while Brent was  2.8% higher at $65.83 per barrel.

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Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD stock) rose roughly 4% on Friday as investors repositioned into the chipmaker following Intel’s disappointing fourth-quarter guidance.

The move underscores a critical market dynamic: when Intel can’t supply the chips customers demand, AMD stands ready to capture the business.

Intel beat quarterly estimates Thursday evening, reporting $13.7 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, both above analyst expectations, but the real story lay in the forward guidance.

The company warned of a weak first quarter with revenue as low as $11.7 billion and adjusted earnings near zero, a miss that sent Intel stock plunging over 15% on Friday. ​

What Intel reported and why traders care

The supply-chain confession came straight from management.

CFO David Zinsner told investors that Intel’s available semiconductor supply would reach “its lowest level in Q1” before improving in subsequent quarters.

The remarks signal that the company cannot meet customer demand for server chips used in artificial intelligence data centers, even as such demand remains robust.

This wasn’t a demand problem; it was a supply problem.

Hyperscalers and enterprises want to buy Intel server processors, but Intel doesn’t have enough inventory to fulfill orders at the scale customers expect.​

CEO Lip-Bu Tan acknowledged that manufacturing yields remain “still below what I want them to be.”

That admission sent a stark message: Intel’s operational challenges persist despite five consecutive quarters of beating revenue guidance.

The company is squeezing efficiency from its existing capacity but cannot expand supply fast enough to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom gripping the industry.​

AMD stock: Opening a new door

AMD shares rose approximately 3.8 to 4% intraday on Friday, reflecting investor recognition that Intel’s supply shortfall opens doors for rivals.

The chipmaker’s market capitalization climbed to approximately $413 billion, now towering over Intel’s $259 billion valuation despite Intel’s 87% year-to-date stock gain in 2025.

AMD’s over 100 percent% gain showcases sustained investor confidence in a company facing no near-term supply constraints.​

The link is straightforward: when Intel can’t ship server CPUs to data center operators, those customers seek alternatives.

AMD’s MI300 AI accelerators and EPYC server processors directly address that need.

When industry supply is constrained, vendors who can deliver enjoy higher revenue per unit and margin expansion, a crucial dynamic as capital spending on AI infrastructure accelerates across the globe.​

A cautious qualification is warranted, though.

AMD still trades at a relatively premium valuation by historical measures.

The move doesn’t signal a permanent structural shift in competitive dynamics, though it does reflect immediate market logic as Intel’s Q1 weakness creates a window of opportunity for better-positioned competitors.

The real story unfolds over the next six months.

If Intel’s supply constraints persist beyond Q1, AMD’s gains could prove more durable. If Intel executes its promised recovery, the AMD stock could reverse sharply.

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GitLab stock has crashed in the past few months, mirroring the performance of other software companies. GTLB stock dropped to the current $37, down by 50% from its highest level in 2025. This article explores why it has crashed and whether it will rebound.

GitLab stock has crashed as concerns about the software industry remains 

The GTLB stock has crashed in the past few months as investors remained concerned about the health of the software industry. It also dropped as investors anticipate that the company will be disrupted by artificial intelligence technology.

The decline mirrors that of other software companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, and Atlassian, which have shed billions of dollars in value.

Analysts believe that the company’s growth will slow down in the coming years. The most recent results showed that its revenue jumped by 25% in the third quarter of last year to $244 million, while its operating margin moved to 18%.

This growth has happened as more companies have moved into its ecosystem. Some of the biggest companies in its ecosystem are Thales, Google, and NVIDIA. It has over 10,475 customers, with 1,405 bringing in over $100k in revenue.

As a result, data compiled by Gartner shows that it is the leader in Magic Quadrant for AI Code Assistants. It is also in the leadership category for DevOps platforms.

Wall Street analysts expect that the upcoming results will show that its fourth-quarter revenue rose by 19% to $252 million, while its annual figure jumped by 24% to $947 million.

Therefore, the consensus view among analysts is that its revenue growth will slow to 19% to $1.13 billion, while its earnings per share will move from $0.9 in 2025 to $1.03.

Additionally, analysts have downgraded the company in the past few weeks. Morgan Stanley downgraded it to equal-weight, with the target moving from $55 to $42. Similarly, Barclays and Cantor Fitzgerald have also downgraded to underweight and neutral.

As a result, the average target for the GitLab stock price has dropped to $50.7 from the $53 three months ago. The consensus was $76 twelve months ago.

On the positive side, the company’s valuation metrics have improved in the past few months, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio to 37. Another positive is that there are unconfirmed rumors that DataDog is considering making a bid for the company. GitLab has been exploring a sale since 2024.

Gitlab share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the GTLB stock price has crashed from last year’s high of $74 to a low of $32.80 this year. It recently dropped and crashed below the key support level at $38.60, its lowest level in April and August last year. 

The stock has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. It is now attempting to retest the key resistance level at $38.60.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the GitLab stock price continues falling, potentially to the year-to-date low of $32. It will then bounce back later this year as jitters about the software industry wanes.

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Investors are bailing on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) this morning after the semiconductor giant posted market-beating Q4 earnings but disappointed on the guidance front.

According to the company’s management, its soft guidance is mostly related to demand outpacing supply. Simply put, on the earnings call, Intel essentially told investors that it doesn’t have enough of what customers want.

On the surface, this sure seems like a great problem to have. Still, a senior Bank of America analyst, Vivek Arya, recommends that investors part ways with INTC shares at current levels.

Despite the post-earnings decline, Intel stock remains up more than 15% year-to-date.

BofA’s dovish view on Intel stock is not based on guidance

Interestingly, Arya’s bearish view on INTC stock isn’t even tied to the company’s outlook. In fact, he agrees that seeing demand outpace supply is good news for Intel shareholders in the near-term.  

But he still refrained from recommending investing in Intel on the post-earnings dip primarily due to valuation concerns.

“We see no reason to buy a stock trading at 90 times price earnings when the leader of the market, Nvidia, is trading at about 25 times only,” he told CNBC in an interview today.

According to him, Intel’s stretched valuation appears even more concerning given the company’s manufacturing business and its product pipeline “are just not keeping pace with where the industry is going.”

Arya favours trimming exposure to INTC because it isn’t particularly well-positioned to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor on manufacturing and with Nvidia or AMD on design – at least in the near-term.

Meanwhile, Intel doesn’t pay a dividend either to appear any more attractive as a long-term holding either.

Could INTC shares sink further from current levels?

According to Vivek Arya, Intel’s commitment to setting up chip manufacturing expertise in the US is admirable, but delivering on that promise will take another two-to-three-years.

But the stock has already “run up well ahead” of what the multinational can realistically deliver in 2026 – making up for a strong enough reason to consider unloading it at current levels, he added.

On Friday, the Bank of America analyst reiterated his “underperform” rating on INTC, with a $40 price target indicating potential for another 13% downside from here.

What’s also worth mentioning is that Intel shares are hovering just above their “20-day MA” at the time of writing. A decisive break below the $44 level may accelerate downward momentum in the near-term.

That’s partly why options traders are currently signalling a continued decline to about $38 in INTC over the next three months.  

How Wall Street recommends playing Intel in 2026

Other Wall Street firms seem to agree with BofA’s dovish view on Intel stock as well.

According to Barchart, consensus rating on INTC shares sits at “hold” only, with the mean target of about $41 indicating potential downside of more than 10% from here.

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US consumer sentiment improved modestly in January, showing gains across demographic groups even as Americans remained uneasy about high prices, job prospects and the broader economic outlook, according to a closely watched survey released on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a final reading of 56.4 in January, up from a preliminary estimate of 54.0 and from 52.9 in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the figure to remain unrevised from the earlier estimate.

While the increase marks a step forward, sentiment remains deeply depressed by historical standards.

One of the sharpest sentiment slumps in decades

The recent decline in confidence ranks among the most severe in the survey’s history, which stretches back to the 1950s.

Over the past decade, comparable drops have occurred only during the peak of post-pandemic inflation in 2022 and after President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs last spring.

Even with January’s improvement, national sentiment remains more than 20% below its level a year ago.

“While the overall improvement was small, it was broad-based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike,” Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement.

However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.

Inflation expectations ease, but frustration remains

The survey showed a modest easing in inflation expectations.

Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.0% over the next year, down from a preliminary reading of 4.2% and the lowest level since January 2025.

Expectations for inflation over the next five years slipped to 3.3% from an initial estimate of 3.4%, though they remain slightly above last month’s reading of 3.2%.

While inflation has slowed significantly over the past three years, it is still above its long-run trend.

Many households remain frustrated by the cumulative impact of past price increases, even as they express confidence that inflation will not surge again.

That confidence is an important signal for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who worry that entrenched fears about rising prices could influence spending and wage-setting behavior, potentially fueling inflation in a self-reinforcing cycle.

Spending holds up despite sour mood

Despite widespread dissatisfaction, consumers have continued to spend.

Data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed solid gains in consumer spending in October and November, which many economists believe supported a strong finish for economic growth in the final quarter of 2025.

The resilience in spending suggests that while households feel strained, they have not yet pulled back sharply.

This divergence between sentiment and actual behaviour has been a recurring feature of the US economy since the pandemic.

Tariffs loom as a potential risk

The Michigan survey also indicated that consumers are not yet linking international developments to their assessment of the domestic economy.

Interviews for the January index concluded on Monday, shortly after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries as part of a push to acquire Greenland.

Those tensions appeared to ease midweek after Trump said he had reached a framework for a deal with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Hsu said that brief episodes of tariff rhetoric are unlikely to shift consumer views, but prolonged uncertainty could have an impact.

She warned that a renewed escalation in trade tensions, similar to last spring’s tariff disputes, would likely weigh on sentiment just as consumers have begun to ease their concerns.

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Europe is bracing for a sharper, more transactional political economy.

The UK is signalling an “economic reset” with China, as Starmer heads to Beijing flanked by heavyweight finance and trade figures in a bid to re-energise investment and partnerships.

At home, regulators are turning the screws on Big Tech, with Ofcom launching a formal probe into Meta’s data disclosures.

On the continent, Brussels is wary of Trump’s expanding diplomatic footprint, while France’s government survives, yet remains on thin ice.

UK signals economic reset with heavy Beijing delegation

Starmer’s bringing the full bench to China next week, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, Business Secretary Peter Kyle, and HSBC boss Brendan Nelson in tow.

The move signals London’s dead seriousness about resetting ties with Beijing after years of cold-shoulder treatment.

This isn’t a ceremonial trip; having Treasury and Trade firepower alongside the PM screams urgency on £100 billion in annual trade.

Beijing’s already laying groundwork, hosting 30 British firms for pre-visit negotiations.

What’s the real play? Starmer’s positioning of Britain as Trump-proof, seeking Chinese capital and tech partnerships, while Washington is unpredictable on trade.

Ofcom signals crackdown on Meta’s data compliance

Ofcom just dropped a regulatory hammer on Meta, opening a formal investigation into whether the tech giant misled UK regulators on WhatsApp Business data.

The probe hinges on last year’s wholesale SMS market review, where Meta supposedly provided incomplete or inaccurate information about WhatsApp’s business messaging capabilities.

It means Ofcom suspects Meta undersold or obscured WhatsApp’s competitive threat to traditional SMS services.

Meta’s playing nice publicly, pledging “substantial resources” for compliance, but this investigation signals growing impatience from British tech regulators.

The stakes? Potential fines and tighter oversight of how Meta monetizes user data across its ecosystem.

EU sees red over Trump’s peace board power grab

Brussels just fired off a diplomatic shot across Trump’s bow; leaked documents reveal the EU’s foreign policy arm is flagging “serious concerns” about Trump’s lifetime chairmanship of his new Board of Peace.

The core gripe? The board’s charter veers wildly from its original Gaza mandate, essentially creating a shadow UN that Trump controls indefinitely.

The EU’s diplomatic service argues it violates constitutional principles and undermines UN autonomy.

Only Hungary and Bulgaria signed on; France, Italy, Germany, and Spain are sitting it out, citing governance red flags and Putin’s seat at the table.

Costa’s line? The EU will engage with Gaza, but not blank-check Trump’s geopolitical playground.

French government survives another vote of no-confidence

France’s third prime minister in 13 months just lived to fight another day.

PM Sébastien Lecornu scraped through Friday’s no-confidence vote 269–288, falling short of the threshold needed to topple his government.

His survival hinges on Socialist support, the kingmaker in France’s fractured parliament, where no party holds a majority.

Lecornu invoked Article 49.3, the controversial “nuclear option,” to bypass debate and ram through the income portion of the 2026 budget, a move that’s felled the last two prime ministers over identical overreach.

The budget targets a 5% deficit, still 200 basis points above Brussels’ 3% ceiling, making France’s fiscal trajectory Europe’s problem.

A second no-confidence vote looms for the spending portion. For markets, French government stability remains one Article 49.3 away from collapse.

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