Global markets started the week on edge as investors grappled with geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, and shifting risk appetite across assets.

Gold surged to fresh record highs above $5,000 an ounce, buoyed by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, while sharp swings in the Japanese yen reignited speculation over possible currency intervention.

Elsewhere, Canada pushed back against US pressure over China trade ties, South Korea’s small-cap stocks surged, and cryptocurrencies slid as investors rotated away from risk.

Safe havens rise as yen volatility hits Asian markets

Gold surged past $5,000 per ounce on Monday, lifted by safety flows amid dollar weakness after a turbulent week marked by tensions over Greenland and Iran.

Investors also remained unsettled after violent spikes in the Japanese yen.

The yen was trading at 154.3 per dollar, following sharp moves on Friday that sparked speculation about potential intervention.

According to Reuters sources, the New York Federal Reserve conducted rate checks on Friday, raising the possibility of joint US–Japan action to arrest the yen’s slide.

“The market’s inclination is to short the yen but the possibility of co-ordination means it no longer is a one-way bet,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities in Singapore, in the Reuters report.

The prospect of coordinated intervention weighed on the dollar and broadly supported other currencies.

Japan’s Nikkei fell about 1.6%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.14% and European futures were down 0.13% as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the week.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Sunday her government would take necessary steps against speculative market moves.

Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP, said expectations alone could lend support to the currency, adding: “The Japanese yen is likely to stabilise to some extent – though the catalysts for significant appreciation remain limited – while long-term yields are expected to face continued pressure at their current elevated levels.”

Canada pushes back on China trade amid Trump tariff threat

Canada said it has no intention of pursuing a free trade agreement with China, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday, responding to warnings from US President Donald Trump, who has threatened punitive tariffs if Ottawa deepens ties with Beijing.

Carney said Canada would respect its obligations under the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement and would not negotiate a free trade deal without notifying its North American partners.

Trump has said he would impose a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal” with Beijing.

“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Carney stressed that Canada’s recent “preliminary agreement” with China, concluded on Jan. 16, only lowers tariffs on selected goods and remains consistent with existing trade rules.

“We have no intention of doing that with China or any other nonmarket economy,” Carney said. “What we have done with China is to rectify some issues that developed in the last couple of years.”

South Korea small caps surge as retail frenzy builds

South Korea’s small-cap stocks jumped to their highest level in more than four years, sharply outperforming the benchmark Kospi Index and signalling a broadening rally in local equities.

The Kosdaq Index surged as much as 6.9%, triggering the Korea Exchange’s “sidecar” rule, which temporarily halts program trading to curb volatility.

While the Kospi opened higher, it later slipped as much as 0.9% after hitting the historic 5,000 mark last week.

Retail investors piled into higher-risk trades. The Samsung Kodex KOSDAQ150 Leverage ETF, which offers twice the exposure to the Kosdaq 150 Index, jumped as much as 23%.

A Korea Financial Investment Association website used for mandatory investor training reportedly crashed amid heavy traffic.

Bitcoin slides as investors retreat from risk

Cryptocurrencies weakened as geopolitical concerns drove investors toward safe havens such as gold.

Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.5% on Sunday to a 2026 low just above $86,000, before rebounding modestly to $87,733 in early Asian trading.

Ether slid as much as 5.7% before recovering 2% to $2,872.

Monday’s bounce “is more of a pause than a big bounce,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX in a Bloomberg report. “We are not seeing a ton of flows so far this morning.”

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded five straight days of outflows totaling $1.7 billion last week in the US, according to Bloomberg data, underscoring fragile sentiment as investors navigate rising geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.

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Britain’s economy is showing clearer signs of life after months of uncertainty, with business confidence improving and consumers becoming slightly less pessimistic.

The shift follows finance minister Rachel Reeves’ annual budget statement in November, which came at a time when households and employers were still adjusting to weak growth and stubborn price pressures.

Surveys published last week suggested January was the best month for businesses since before Keir Starmer became prime minister in July 2024.

Consumer confidence also moved higher, reaching its strongest reading since August last year.

Official data added to the brighter tone, with retail sales volumes rising in December at the fastest annual pace since April.

Still, Britain’s recovery remains uneven. The labour market continues to look subdued, partly linked to a payroll tax increase introduced by Reeves last year.

Inflation remains higher than in other major advanced economies, leaving the UK with the strongest price pressures among the Group of Seven.

Business bounce-back gains attention

Business surveys have been one of the strongest signals that the economy is stabilising. Purchasing managers’ index data showed the fastest upturn in activity this month since April 2024, led by services firms.

Factories also reported improving conditions, with order books expanding at the quickest pace in almost four years.

The rebound stands out after a long stretch of hesitant investment decisions, slower demand, and tight cost control. Services activity has been particularly important, given its weight in the UK economy.

For manufacturers, the improvement in order books suggests demand is no longer as weak as many companies feared.

However, analysts have warned against assuming the jump in confidence will last.

Despite January’s rise, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index remains below its pre-COVID average under Starmer, showing that activity is still not fully back to the levels that were normal before the pandemic and the subsequent economic shocks.

Consumers turn slightly more positive

Consumers are still cautious, but some indicators suggest sentiment is beginning to shift. GfK’s consumer confidence index edged higher again this month, reaching its best level since August 2024.

That improvement hints that households may be feeling less anxious about spending decisions compared with late 2024.

Other measures, though, tell a different story. S&P Global said its shorter January survey showed consumer sentiment slipping to a nine-month low.

The contrast highlights how fragile confidence remains, and how quickly attitudes can change if households sense rising costs or job insecurity.

Spending data has also been mixed. Official figures showed retail sales volumes rose unexpectedly in December after weak results in October and November.

The increase was the fastest annual pace since April, offering some reassurance that demand held up heading into the end of the year.

Yet softer readings elsewhere suggest the recovery in spending may not be broad-based.

Some major retailers have reported underwhelming end-of-year sales, underlining that consumers are still selective, particularly for discretionary purchases.

GDP surprise adds to improving signals

Britain’s output data also delivered a stronger-than-expected reading late last year. The economy grew by 0.3% in November, marking the fastest monthly rise since June.

The figures surprised economists and offered more evidence that growth momentum was stronger than expected ahead of the new year.

Part of the boost came from Jaguar Land Rover returning to full production after a cyberattack disrupted activity earlier. The rebound in output helped lift manufacturing performance and contributed to the overall rise in GDP.

Stronger-than-expected services activity also played a role, once again highlighting how the services sector is often the key driver for UK economic performance.

While one month’s data does not set a clear trend, the November reading suggests the economy was more resilient than many indicators had implied in the second half of 2024.

Inflation and hiring remain weak spots

Despite improved activity signals, inflation remains a persistent challenge.

Consumer price growth rose more than forecast to 3.4% in December, keeping pressure on household budgets and complicating the wider economic picture.

The UK continues to record the highest inflation among the G7, reinforcing why cost-of-living pressures remain central to economic and political debate.

Inflation is expected to slow sharply in the coming months. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said it is likely to be close to the central bank’s 2% target by April or May.

However, not all policymakers share the same level of comfort.

Megan Greene said on Friday she remained concerned about lingering wage-driven inflation pressures, a factor that could keep price growth elevated for longer.

The labour market, meanwhile, is showing little sign of improvement.

The number of payrolled workers fell in December by the most since November 2020, although similar early estimates during that period were later revised upwards.

Even so, the latest drop has added to concerns that hiring demand is weakening.

Business surveys point in the same direction. The PMI data showed employers remained wary about recruitment, with employment in the services sector declining at a faster rate in January than in December.

This suggests that while business output and confidence may be improving, companies are still cautious about committing to new staff as costs remain high and demand remains uncertain.

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India is preparing to sharply reduce import tariffs on cars from the European Union, marking the biggest opening yet of its tightly protected automobile market as New Delhi and Brussels move closer to sealing a long-awaited free trade agreement.

The deal could be announced as early as Tuesday, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Under the proposed arrangement, India plans to cut peak import duties on EU-made cars to 40% from current levels of as high as 110%.

The move would represent a significant shift in trade policy for the world’s third-largest car market and could reshape access for European automakers that have long criticised India’s tariff regime.

Sharp tariff cuts under proposed EU trade pact

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has agreed to immediately lower import duties on a limited number of cars from the 27-nation EU bloc that have an import price above 15,000 euros ($17,739), two sources briefed on the talks told Reuters.

Over time, those duties would be reduced further to as little as 10%, the sources said.

The initial tariff reduction would apply to about 200,000 internal combustion engine cars annually, although that quota could still be adjusted before the final agreement is signed.

Battery electric vehicles will be excluded from the duty cuts for the first five years to protect domestic investments, with similar reductions expected to apply to EVs later.

India currently levies tariffs of between 70% and 110% on fully built imported cars, a policy that has drawn repeated criticism from global auto executives, including Elon Musk.

The proposed cuts would be India’s most aggressive move yet to liberalise the sector.

Boost for European automakers in a protected market

Lower import taxes would be a boost for European carmakers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, as well as manufacturers including Renault and Stellantis.

Many of these companies already manufacture locally in India but have struggled to scale up due to high import barriers.

Lower tariffs would allow carmakers to sell imported vehicles at more competitive prices and test the market with a wider range of models before committing to further local production, one of the sources said.

European brands currently account for less than 4% of India’s roughly 4.4 million-unit annual car market.

The sector is dominated by Suzuki Motor, along with domestic manufacturers Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, which together control about two-thirds of sales.

With India’s car market projected to expand to around 6 million units a year by 2030, several European automakers are lining up new investments.

Renault is revamping its India strategy as it looks for growth beyond Europe, while Volkswagen Group is finalising its next phase of investment through its Skoda brand.

‘Mother of all deals’ and wider trade implications

India and the EU are expected to announce the conclusion of negotiations for the comprehensive free trade pact, ending years of stalled talks.

After the announcement, both sides will finalise details and ratify what has already been dubbed “the mother of all deals.”

The agreement could significantly expand bilateral trade and support Indian exports such as textiles and jewellery, which have been hit by 50% US tariffs since late August.

The expected announcement coincides with a visit to India by Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, who are attending Republic Day celebrations and holding summit-level talks with Modi.

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Lloyds Bank share price continued its strong rally as investors reacted to the recent US bank earnings and as traders focused on the upcoming earnings and as traders focused on its upcoming earnings. It was trading at 101.65p, up by 75% from its lowest level in April last year.

Lloyds Bank to publish its financial results this week

Lloyds Bank stock remained above the important resistance level at 100p this month as American banks released their financial results, which showed that their businesses continued doing well.

The company will publish its financial results this week, which will provide more information about the fourth quarter and the full year. 

Its consensus numbers show that analysts expect its business to have a strong performance in Q4 as the UK economy stabilized.

The net interest income is expected to come in at £3.54 billion, up from £3.451 billion in the previous one. Its other income, which includes ATM fees, wealth management, service charges, and rent from owned properties, continued rising, reaching £1.55 billion.

If these estimates are accurate, it means that it’s net interest income (NIM) for the year will be £13.648 billion, up from £12.84 billion a year earlier. The other income will be £6.08 billion, up from £5.5 billion from a year earlier.

The consensus report shows that its Q4 profit rose to £1.2 billion, bringing the annual figure to £4.57 billion. 

Lloyds, like other European banks, has benefited from the relatively high interest rates in the UK as inflation has remained at an elevated level. 

City analysts believe that the Bank of England will maintain rates higher for longer as UK inflation has remained much higher than the target of 2.0%. The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in December.

The company has also benefited from its cost-cutting measures, including the increasing usage of digital banking technology. City analysts believe that the cost-income ratio dropped to 59.6% in the fourth quarter from the previous 68.4%. This figure is expected to keep going downwards, moving from 60.4% in 2024 to 47.2% in FY’28.

At the same time, the asset quality ratio is expected to keep rising, moving from 0.1% in 2024 to 0.27% in FY’28. More shareholder return data are also expected to keep growing in the coming years, with the dividend per share moving from 3.17p in 2024 to 5.77p in 2028. Its share buyback is expected to move from £1.7 billion in 2024 to £3 billion in 2027.

The other key catalyst for the Lloyds share price will be its falling remediation costs, which are expected to move to £1 billion in 2025 from £899 million in 2024. These costs will be because of the motor insurance crisis. It will then continue falling to £248 million in 2028.

Lloyds share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Lloyds share price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months and is now trading at its highest level since 2008. It has formed an ascending channel and is now hovering near its upper side.

The two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator have formed a bearish crossover pattern. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed downwards.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the LLOY stock price pulls back after earnings as investors start booking profits. If this happens, the next next key level to watch will be at 95p, the lower side of the ascending channel 

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Private equity firm CVC Capital has agreed to acquire 100% of US-based Marathon Asset Management in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, marking a major expansion of its credit business in the United States.

The Jersey-based firm said on Monday that the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year, subject to regulatory approvals.

Under the terms of the agreement, the initial consideration comprises around $400 million in cash and up to $800 million in CVC equity.

The transaction also includes an earn-out linked to Marathon’s financial performance between the 2027 and 2029 financial years, which could add up to a further $200 million in cash and $200 million in CVC equity.

Expanding access to the US credit market

CVC said the acquisition significantly enhances its access to the large and fast-growing US market through Marathon’s established positions in asset-based lending, real estate credit, opportunistic strategies, and public credit.

These areas are seen as complementary to CVC’s existing strengths in Europe.

The firm highlighted its leadership in liquid credit, where it is the largest European collateralised loan obligation manager, as well as its position as a top-three player in European direct lending.

By combining Marathon with CVC Credit, fee-paying assets under management are expected to rise to approximately €61 billion following completion.

CVC added that the broader credit platform will improve its ability to scale offerings across institutional investors, private wealth clients, and insurance companies globally.

Growth ambitions and strategic priorities

The transaction supports CVC’s longer-term ambition to deliver double-digit growth in fee-paying assets under management, targeting €200 billion by 2028 across its platforms.

The firm said the Marathon acquisition, alongside its recently announced strategic partnership with AIG, strengthens its position in the rapidly growing insurance channel.

Rob Lucas, chief executive of CVC, described the deal as “highly strategic,” saying it accelerates growth and reinforces the firm’s global platform.

“Expanding credit capability in the US to complement our market-leading European platform has been a clear priority for CVC, and we are delighted to partner with Bruce, Lou, and the team,” he said.

“Together, the Marathon transaction combined with our recently announced strategic partnership with AIG, means we are even better positioned to deliver for our clients across the Institutional, Private Wealth, and rapidly growing Insurance channels,” he added.

Leadership continuity and rebranding

Following completion, Marathon will be rebranded as CVC-Marathon.

Co-founders Bruce Richards and Lou Hanover will continue to co-head the Marathon credit strategies, ensuring continuity of leadership.

Richards will also join CVC’s Partner Board and, alongside Andrew Davies, will be responsible for managing the combined CVC Credit business.

Richards said Marathon’s culture closely aligns with CVC’s focus on investment performance, integrity, and collaboration, adding that CVC’s global reach would create a powerful partnership.

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For a while now, experts have said that gold and silver prices may experience significant corrections before moving higher. But it seems as though the precious metals did not get the memo. 

Both precious metals have hit historic highs in the past couple of trading days. 

On Friday, silver prices crossed the $100 per ounce mark for the first time ever on the back of increasing safe-haven demand. 

Meanwhile, gold prices on COMEX breached the coveted $5,000 per ounce level on Monday. 

Experts believe that the rallies could continue as fundamentals remained strongly in favour of both metals. 

At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $5,125.66 per ounce, up 2.2%. The contract had hit a record high of $5,145.39 an ounce earlier in the day. 

Silver prices hit a record high of $109.320 per ounce on Monday, and were trading at $107.670 per ounce. 

Gold and silver continued their strong upward momentum from the start of the year, with both metals extending their already robust performance from 2025. 

More room for upside

Gold has increased by approximately 17%, and silver has seen a significant climb of 50%.

“The move has been driven by a series of geopolitical shocks. They include uncertainty about Washington’s stance on Greenland and lingering concerns about a potential US-Iran escalation,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group, said in a note.

A weaker dollar, lower real yields, and persistent policy uncertainty have reinforced investor appetite for hard assets. 

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs had recently increased its gold price projection for December 2026, raising the forecast from $4,900 to $5,400.

In a separate projection, independent analyst Ross Norman anticipated a high of $6,400 for gold this year, with an expected average price of $5,375.

Bank of America has set an aggressive forecast among major institutions for the yellow metal, raising its near-term gold target to a staggering $6,000 per ounce.

On the other hand, Bank of America’s Head of Metals Research Michael Widmer suggested that silver may be particularly attractive to investors who are willing to accept higher risk in exchange for greater potential gains. 

He points to the current gold:silver ratio of about 59 as an indicator that silver could continue to outperform gold. 

To illustrate the potential upside for silver, Widmer referenced the historical ratio low of 32 in 2011, which would imply a silver price of $135 per ounce. 

Furthermore, the 1980 low of 14 in the ratio suggests an even higher potential silver price of $309 per ounce.

Investment demand

“We expect investment demand to remain the most important support for the gold market in the current year,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a report. 

The rally may pause in the short term, mainly because the dispute over Greenland seems temporarily settled.

Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rates at their current level.

“However, we expect interest rate cuts in the US to accelerate in the course of the year following the appointment of a new Fed chair,” Lambrecht added. 

This should give the gold price a boost again.

The decision regarding the new Fed chair appointment, to be made by US President Donald Trump, is expected soon. Former Fed Governor Warsh is currently seen as the most likely candidate.

Retail investors’ demand for investment has increased substantially in recent months. This is evidenced by the 2025 inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reaching their highest level since 2020.

Amid ongoing skepticism regarding the dependability of the conventional 60/40 portfolio split, gold is attracting increased investor interest. 

Research, according to Widmer, now suggests that allocating 20% of a portfolio to gold can be a successful approach.

Silver’s strength

The gold-silver ratio has fallen to its lowest point since 2011, hovering just above 50.

This demonstrates silver’s current strength, which is driven by a combination of persistent safe-haven interest and strong industrial demand.

“Silver’s smaller market size and dual role as both an industrial and investment metal continue to amplify price volatility,” ING’s Manthey said. 

Also, tightening physical balances amid constrained mine‑supply growth are adding further upward pressure.

Despite ongoing market volatility, the underlying environment for silver and gold remains strong.

Factors such as geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and structural supply shortages are contributing to their favorable positioning.

Manthey added:

Silver’s tight physical market and strong industrial demand should continue to provide a solid floor, though its elevated volatility means sharp swings remain likely. 

However, risks persist for silver prices, according to Manthey. Specifically, a more severe global economic downturn or consistently elevated prices could lead to demand destruction, particularly in industrial sectors.

“Silver’s inherent volatility also means it can overshoot in both directions,” Manthey further said. 

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British artificial intelligence company Synthesia has raised $200 million in a Series E funding round, valuing the business at $4 billion and underscoring continued investor appetite for niche AI companies with clear commercial use cases.

The valuation nearly doubles the $2.1 billion level the London-based startup achieved last year.

The latest round was led by Google Ventures and included participation from new investors Hedosophia and Evantic, the venture fund founded by former Sequoia Capital investor Matt Miller.

Existing backers NVentures, Nvidia’s venture capital arm, Accel, Kleiner Perkins, New Enterprise Associates, PSP Growth and Air Street Capital also took part.

Growing focus on corporate training software

Founded in 2017 by AI researchers and entrepreneurs from institutions including Stanford and Cambridge, Synthesia specialises in text-to-video generation software.

The company has built a business around helping enterprises create training and internal communications videos using AI-generated avatars, reducing the need for traditional video production.

Synthesia offers a freemium model with capped video usage, alongside subscription plans and bespoke enterprise packages.

Unlike many AI startups still focused on experimentation, the company has found traction in corporate learning and development, with clients including Bosch, Merck, SAP and, more recently, Microsoft.

The company said it crossed $100 million in annual recurring revenue in April 2025 and is on track to reach $200 million this year.

It also reported a sharp increase in large contracts, quadrupling agreements worth more than $100,000 over the past 12 months.

Capital to fuel AI agents and interactivity

Synthesia plans to use the new funding to develop more advanced interactive video tools, moving beyond one-way training content.

The company is working on AI agents embedded in video avatars that can answer questions, simulate role-play scenarios and provide tailored explanations to employees during training sessions.

Chief executive and co-founder Victor Riparbelli said enterprises are under growing pressure to reskill and upskill their workforce, creating a timely opportunity for more interactive and responsive training tools.

He described the convergence of enterprise demand and AI capability as a rare market moment.

The shift aligns with a broader trend toward AI agents that can interact dynamically with users, rather than simply generating static content.

Employee liquidity through structured secondary sale

Alongside the funding round, Synthesia is facilitating an employee secondary share sale in partnership with Nasdaq, which is acting as a private markets intermediary rather than a public exchange, TechCrunch reported.

The process allows employees to sell shares at the same $4 billion valuation as the Series E, while giving the company more control over the transaction.

Chief financial officer Daniel Kim said the secondary sale is designed to give employees access to liquidity while allowing Synthesia to remain focused on long-term growth as a private company.

Secondary sales are often conducted informally and at varying valuations, sometimes creating tension among shareholders.

Investor confidence amid AI valuation debate

The funding comes amid ongoing debate over whether heavy spending in artificial intelligence is inflating a market bubble.

While some investors have grown cautious, the Synthesia round suggests capital continues to flow toward companies with defined revenue streams and enterprise adoption.

The deal also follows other large AI-related raises in the UK, including a $1.1 billion round by data centre operator Nscale Global Holdings earlier this year.

Despite this activity, European AI startups still trail US peers in valuation scale.

Anthropic and OpenAI are both seeking massive funding rounds at valuations far exceeding those typically seen in Europe, highlighting the transatlantic gap in AI capital markets.

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The European Union has opened a formal investigation into Elon Musk’s social media platform X over concerns that its Grok artificial intelligence chatbot may have generated deepfake images that “may amount to child sexual abuse material.”

The European Commission said the probe will assess whether X complied with its obligations under the bloc’s Digital Services Act (DSA) to properly identify, assess and mitigate risks associated with deploying Grok across the EU’s 27 member states.

The investigation adds to mounting scrutiny of X’s content moderation practices and could further inflame tensions between Brussels and Washington.

Focus on risk assessment and mitigation

According to the Commission, the investigation will examine whether X adequately addressed systemic risks linked to Grok’s rollout, particularly the risk of generating non-consensual sexual deepfakes involving women and children.

The case falls under the DSA, the EU’s sweeping online content rulebook that imposes strict requirements on large platforms to prevent the spread of illegal and harmful material.

“Non-consensual sexual deepfakes of women and children are a violent, unacceptable form of degradation,” said EU tech commissioner Henna Virkkunen.

“With this investigation, we will determine whether X has met its legal obligations under the DSA, or whether it treated rights of European citizens — including those of women and children — as collateral damage of its service.”

The Commission said the investigation will not involve interim measures at this stage.

Under the Digital Services Act, which took effect in 2023, the EU has the power to impose fines of up to 6% of a company’s worldwide annual turnover for failures to tackle illegal content, mitigate systemic risks or comply with transparency requirements.

Growing international backlash over Grok

The EU investigation follows escalating global condemnation of Grok in recent weeks.

Users in multiple countries have reported that the AI chatbot generated sexualised imagery and posted it to X, triggering backlash from regulators and child safety advocates.

In the United Kingdom, communications regulator Ofcom is already formally investigating whether X breached the country’s Online Safety Act in relation to Grok’s outputs.

Authorities in France and India have also raised concerns, accusing the chatbot of illegally creating sexualised images of individuals without their consent.

X, which is a subsidiary of Musk’s AI company xAI, has previously said that it removes illegal content, including child sexual abuse material, suspends offending accounts and cooperates with law enforcement when necessary.

Tensions with Washington loom

The Grok probe comes shortly after the EU imposed a separate €120 million ($142 million) penalty on X under the DSA.

In that earlier case, EU regulators concluded that X’s paid blue checkmark system misled users, that the platform failed to provide adequate data access to researchers, and that it did not properly establish an advertising transparency repository.

That fine drew sharp criticism from the Trump administration, which has framed EU digital regulation as an attack on free speech and American technology companies.

Ahead of the December penalty, US Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that “the EU should be supporting free speech, not attacking American companies over garbage.”

European officials, however, have consistently rejected those claims, arguing that the DSA is designed to protect users’ rights and safety rather than restrict lawful expression.

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Uncertainty has become the defining condition of modern business.

Market volatility, rapid technological shifts, geopolitical tension, and changing workforce expectations have made long-term predictability increasingly rare.

In this environment, traditional competitive advantages—speed, scale, or capital—are no longer sufficient on their own.

According to Alessio Vinassa, serial entrepreneur, advisor, and leadership mentor, one asset is emerging as decisive for the next decade: trust.

“When markets are unstable, trust becomes the most stable currency a leader can hold,” Vinassa says. “It’s what allows organisations to move forward when certainty is unavailable.”

Why trust matters more when certainty disappears

In stable conditions, trust is often taken for granted. Processes work, forecasts hold, and expectations are predictable.

In uncertain markets, however, every assumption is tested. Employees question leadership direction, customers become cautious, and partners reassess risk.

Vinassa argues that trust is what holds systems together during these moments.

“People don’t need leaders who have all the answers,” he explains. “They need leaders they believe will act with integrity when the answers aren’t clear.”

Trust reduces friction. It accelerates decision-making, preserves morale, and sustains collaboration even when outcomes are unclear.

Trust as a strategic asset, not a soft skill

Many organisations still treat trust as a cultural value rather than a strategic lever. Vinassa believes this is a mistake.

“Trust is not a sentiment—it’s infrastructure,” he says. “Without it, every strategy becomes harder to execute.”

When trust is present:

• Teams align faster
• Change initiatives face less resistance
• Feedback flows more openly
• Stakeholders extend patience during transitions

In uncertain markets, these advantages compound.

Transparency builds credibility before confidence exists

One of the most effective trust-building tools, according to Vinassa, is transparency—especially when leaders don’t yet have solutions.

“Silence creates anxiety,” he notes. “Honest communication creates stability.”

Leaders who openly acknowledge uncertainty signal confidence in their people rather than fear of exposure. This honesty builds credibility long before results materialise.

Vinassa emphasises that transparency does not mean oversharing—it means clarity of intent, consistency of messaging, and alignment between words and actions.

Consistency is the backbone of trust

Trust is rarely lost through a single decision. More often, it erodes through inconsistency.

“People don’t expect perfection,” Vinassa explains. “They expect predictability in values.”

In uncertain markets, leaders are often forced to adapt strategies quickly. What must remain stable are principles: how decisions are made, how people are treated, and how accountability is handled.

Consistency in values allows flexibility in execution without destabilising trust.

Trust enables speed, not caution

Contrary to popular belief, trust does not slow organisations down—it enables speed.

“When trust exists, leaders don’t need to micromanage,” Vinassa says. “Teams move faster because they’re empowered, not constrained.”

In volatile environments, the ability to act decisively is critical.

Trust reduces the need for excessive approvals, defensive documentation, and internal politics that delay action.

Trust with customers and markets

External trust is just as critical as internal trust. Customers and partners are more likely to stay engaged with organisations that demonstrate reliability during disruption.

Vinassa points out that brands that communicate clearly, honour commitments, and prioritise long-term relationships often emerge stronger from periods of uncertainty.

“Markets forgive mistakes,” he says. “They don’t forgive evasiveness.”

Leadership accountability in uncertain times

Trust is reinforced when leaders take responsibility—not just for successes, but for misjudgments.

“Accountability is trust made visible,” Vinassa notes.

Leaders who own outcomes signal maturity and stability.

This behaviour sets the tone for the entire organisation, encouraging openness and continuous improvement rather than blame avoidance.

Preparing for the next decade

Looking ahead, Vinassa believes that trust will increasingly differentiate leaders and organisations.

“The next decade will reward leaders who understand that trust compounds,” he says. “It lowers risk, attracts talent, and sustains relevance.”

In a world where change is constant, trust becomes the anchor that allows innovation, growth, and resilience to coexist.

For more information on Alessio and his work, visit his website or follow him across social media, including Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, X, Youtube, and Medium.

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The global upstream oil and gas merger-and-acquisition (M&A) market is set to cool in 2026, with activity expected to dip below 2025 levels despite nearly $152 billion in available opportunities as of January, according to a Rystad Energy analysis.

“Rystad Energy expects North America to remain the clear anchor for upstream M&A activity in 2026, with deal flow increasingly shaped by a new phase of a ‘merger of equals’ consolidation among small- and mid-cap listed US shale producers,” Atul Raina, vice president, oil and gas M&A, said in the analysis. 

This is further supported by ample private E&P capital yet to be deployed, ongoing consolidation in Canada’s Montney shale, and rising interest in gas and LNG-linked assets—particularly from Asian buyers seeking long-term security of supply.

The international M&A landscape, in stark contrast, continues to be inconsistent. 

Although many potential deals exist, overall momentum is constrained because activity is largely focused on a small number of high-value and frequently intricate transactions.

National oil companies (NOCs) from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are expected to be more active players in the market. 

This increased participation is driven by their ongoing desire for greater scale and international exposure, especially as many International Oil Companies (IOCs) maintain a selective approach, according to Raina.

2025 market review and key deals

In 2025, global upstream Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity decreased by 17% year-on-year (YoY), totaling approximately $170 billion.

The number of deals also saw a decline of 12%, reaching 466.

Last year, several major trends defined the energy sector, including significant consolidation among North American shale producers, substantial investments in LNG projects across the US and Argentina, and major companies divesting assets in Asia and the UK to establish new regional joint ventures.

Key deals reflecting these themes include the SM Energy/Civitas merger, Cenovus Energy’s acquisition of MEG Energy, a Blackstone-led consortium’s purchase of a 49.9% stake in Port Arthur LNG phase 2 from Sempra Infrastructure Partners (SIP), the Eni/Petronas asset merger in Indonesia and Malaysia, and TotalEnergies merging its UK operations with NeoNext Energy to create NeoNext+.

Early in the year, significant updates in the energy sector include potential merger talks between Coterra Energy and Devon Energy, alongside Mitsubishi’s announced $7.5 billion acquisition of Aethon Energy.

The global activity outlook remains uncertain. The current pipeline of investment opportunities totals $55 billion. 

This figure incorporates a $23.5 billion potential sale of Santos, as the company is open to offers, and $17 billion for Lukoil’s international upstream assets, Rystad Energy said.

Looking ahead, key buyers expected to emerge include national oil companies (NOCs) such as ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, Petronas, Petrobras, Pertamina, and Ecopetrol.

Regional activity and oil price volatility

In 2025, North America was the primary driver of activity, generating over $112 billion in deal value, which represented 66% of the global total, data from Rystad Energy showed.

Africa saw a 57% year-over-year drop to $6 billion. Europe’s deal value decreased by 24% year-over-year, reaching approximately $10 billion, the Norway-based energy intelligence agency said. 

The Middle East recorded a significant 65% fall to nearly $4 billion. Oceania observed a sharp 96% drop to around $435 million, while Russia experienced a 25% decrease to nearly $750 million.

“This overall global decline is primarily attributed to low and volatile oil prices during 2025 that had a lasting negative impact on the buyer-seller spread,” the agency said. 

Brent oil prices experienced significant fluctuation last year. Beginning at approximately $79 per barrel in January, prices dropped to about $65 per barrel by May. 

They then rallied, climbing past $70 per barrel in June and July, before ultimately closing the year around $63 per barrel in December.

In December of the same year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices had decreased to around $58 per barrel, starting from $75 per barrel at the beginning of the year.

Increased activity in Asia, South America

M&A activity saw an increase exclusively in Asia and South America. Asia experienced a more than threefold increase in deal value, reaching $18 billion, primarily due to the formation of a joint venture between Eni and Petronas. 

Simultaneously, South America’s deal value rose by 71% year-over-year to $18.3 billion, driven by several LNG and Vaca Muerta-focused transactions in Argentina.

While global M&A activity in LNG is anticipated to fall short of last year’s figures, the market is still expected to be strong, Rystad said.

Currently, over $8.6 billion in LNG infrastructure assets are already available for acquisition.

The $8.6 billion in question does not account for the potential sale of Santos, following the withdrawal of the $23.6 billion bid by the ADNOC-led consortium, the agency said. 

Separately, $2.5 billion in upstream assets that supply LNG plants are also available for sale. 

Furthermore, among other possible deals, Energy Transfer is reportedly considering divesting an 80% stake in its pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) Lake Charles LNG project.

“In Argentina, YPF is reportedly seeking partners for its Argentina LNG project. Geographically, the US is likely to continue leading deal activity.” Rystad said.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern NOCs such as Saudi Aramco and ADNOC are expected to remain active, having already acquired LNG assets globally and continuing to emerge as potential buyers for key opportunities. 

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