Tonight’s digest tracks a trillion-dollar retail coronation, a fragile geopolitical tariff truce, a pharma darling losing its halo, and crypto’s brutal reminder that liquidity rules all.

Walmart’s transformation is real, India’s leverage play is bold but murky, Novo Nordisk’s stumble exposes execution risk, and Bitcoin’s slide confirms it’s trading like a high-beta asset, not digital gold.

Big moves, bigger implications, and plenty of fine print still waiting to bite.

Walmart hits $1 trillion market cap

Walmart became the first traditional retailer to hit a $1 trillion market cap, crossing the mark Tuesday after its stock surged past $126 per share.

The milestone underscores a dramatic transformation for a company that moved beyond discount retail into a tech-powered behemoth.

E-commerce sales jumped 27% in the latest quarter, while advertising revenue rocketed 53%, offsetting thin brick-and-mortar margins.

New CEO John Furner inherits a company firing on all cylinders: stock up 24% last year, 11% in 2026 alone, crushing the S&P 500.

Using physical stores as delivery hubs beats Amazon’s model, plus a high-margin ad business rivaling Big Tech turned out to be Walmart’s secret weapon.

India-US trade deal brings relief

Trump slashed India’s tariff rate from 50% to 18%, a massive relief, though specifics remain fuzzy.

Modi agreed to ditch Russian oil, instead buying American energy and committing to $500 billion in US goods purchases. The real catalyst however seems India’s EU mega-deal, termed as the “mother of all deals.”

The deal gave Modi leverage to negotiate from strength, not desperation.

Yet details are hazy. Will Modi actually halt Russian crude, or just trim imports? The timeline’s unclear.

Analysts note 18% still hammers small US businesses, six times higher than 2024 rates. India’s stock market crashed last year on tariff fears; this deal provides breathing room but doesn’t erase geopolitical rifts.

Washington wanted India’s oil pivot to pressure Putin on Ukraine. Modi’s got political cover now, but the fine print tells the real story, and it’s still being written.

Novo slides on weak 2026 outlook

Novo Nordisk dropped a bombshell: 2026 sales will plunge 5-13%, sending shares into a 15% freefall Tuesday.

The pharma giant pointed at brutal US price cuts under Trump’s Most Favored Nation deal, plus patent cliffs in Canada, Brazil, and China killing exclusivity.

Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro ate their lunch as it works better, gaining share faster while compounding pharmacies undercut Wegovy at half the price.

New CEO Mike Doustdar’s banking on oral Wegovy’s January launch and CagriSema (the next-gen combo drug) to reverse the bleeding, but that’s a long shot against Lilly’s momentum.

The real issue is that analysts expected 2% decline; Novo’s guiding toward double-digit pain.

Stock down 46% last year. Investor confidence is shot. The comeback narrative hinges entirely on execution, and Novo’s stumbled too many times already.

Bitcoin slips below $74,000

Bitcoin slipped below $74,000 on Tuesday, marking a nine-month low and 40% plunge from its $126,000 peak.

The culprit isn’t Iran per se, it’s macro collapse: Fed uncertainty after leadership changes, real yields climbing, the dollar strengthening, and spot Bitcoin ETF outflows signaling institutional panic.

Geopolitical jitters matter less when liquidity evaporates. Derivatives liquidations cascaded across weekend thin trading, wiping $5 billion in open positions.

Iran tensions actually flash-crashed oil earlier in January when Trump threatened strikes, but higher crude killed safe-haven demand by crushing real returns.

Bitcoin flipped from geopolitical hedge to leveraged risk asset.

Support at $74,000 is critical as breaching it would provide bears with a new target $68,000.

Until the Fed signals rate cuts or liquidations stabilize, crypto’s racing downwind.

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Nvidia Corp. is nearing a deal to invest roughly $20 billion in OpenAI as part of the ChatGPT maker’s latest funding round, reported Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, marking what would be the chipmaker’s single largest investment to date.

The contribution is close to being completed, the sources said.

The deal is not final, and terms could still change.

OpenAI is seeking to raise up to $100 billion in the round, which could value the company at around $830 billion, Reuters reported last week.

At the same time, a Financial Times report said Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China have been delayed due to a US national security review.

Nvidia’s biggest bet yet on OpenAI

The talks underscore Nvidia’s growing financial commitment to OpenAI at a time when both companies are central to the global artificial intelligence boom.

Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has publicly signalled support for the investment after reports last year suggested tensions between the two firms.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that a plan announced by Nvidia in September to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI and supply it with data centre chips had stalled after some inside the chipmaker expressed doubts.

That deal had been expected to close within weeks, but negotiations dragged on for months.

Huang has since denied claims that he was unhappy with OpenAI.

Speaking on Saturday while visiting Taipei, he said Nvidia plans to make a “huge” investment in OpenAI, likely its largest ever.

Huang also told CNBC earlier on Tuesday that Nvidia would consider investing in OpenAI’s next fundraising round and the startup’s eventual initial public offering.

Big tech lines up for OpenAI funding round

OpenAI’s latest fundraising effort has drawn interest from several large technology groups racing to deepen ties with the artificial intelligence startup.

Companies including Amazon.com Inc. and SoftBank Group Corp. are exploring potential investments, betting that closer partnerships could provide an edge in the intensifying AI race.

Bloomberg has reported that Amazon has held discussions to invest as much as $50 billion, while SoftBank has talked about investing up to $30 billion.

The Financial Times previously reported that Nvidia might invest up to $20 billion.

Despite their close relationship, Reuters reported on Monday that OpenAI has been dissatisfied with some of Nvidia’s latest AI chips and has sought alternatives since last year, potentially complicating ties.

OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman responded after the report, saying Nvidia makes “the best AI chips in the world” and that OpenAI hopes to remain a “gigantic customer for a very long time”.

China chip sales add another layer of uncertainty

Separately, Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to China remain uncertain nearly two months after US President Donald Trump approved exports, pending a national security review, the Financial Times reported.

Chinese customers have reportedly held off placing orders until licensing conditions are clarified.

In January, the US Commerce Department eased export curbs on the H200 for China but required licence applications to be reviewed by multiple agencies.

According to the FT report, the Commerce Department has completed its analysis, while the State Department has pushed for tougher restrictions.

Huang said last week he hopes China will allow Nvidia to sell the H200 in the country and that the licence is being finalised.

Reuters reported last month that China had approved its first batch of Nvidia H200 chips for import, signalling a possible shift as Beijing balances AI demand with domestic development goals.

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Nintendo shares plunged more than 10% in Tokyo on Wednesday after the gaming giant missed market estimates for quarterly revenue and flagged mounting headwinds from an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, even as profit growth remained strong.

Shares were recently 12% lower at 8,848 yen, extending the stock’s losses to more than 16% so far this year.

The decline followed results released after Tuesday’s market close, which showed sharply higher nine-month earnings but a cautious outlook for the full year.

Revenue miss overshadows profit beat

Nintendo reported a 24% year-on-year jump in profit, supported by continued strength in console sales.

Revenue rose 86%, and the Nintendo Switch remains the company’s best-selling console since its launch in 2017.

Despite the solid earnings performance, investors focused on the revenue shortfall and the company’s decision to maintain its annual forecasts.

Nintendo reiterated that it expects to sell 19 million Switch 2 consoles by the end of March and guided for net profit to climb 25.5% to Y350.00 billion ($2.25 billion) for the year ending March.

Those projections appear conservative.

Net profit for the nine months ended December surged 51% from a year earlier to Y358.86 billion, already exceeding the full-year forecast.

As of December, Nintendo had sold 17.4 million Switch 2 units.

Nomura analyst Naruhito Miki said in a report that Nintendo’s third-quarter operating profit undershot the brokerage’s estimate due to lower sales volumes of Switch 2 software titles, leaving “a somewhat negative impression”.

Memory chip shortages weigh on margins

A key concern for investors is the impact of soaring memory costs on Nintendo’s margins.

The company primarily uses dynamic random access memory (DRAM) in its consoles, a segment facing acute shortages as artificial intelligence and data-centre demand accelerates.

According to a report from market researcher TrendForce, contract prices for conventional DRAM chips in the first quarter are projected to rise 90% to 95% compared with the previous three months.

Last month, a senior semiconductor industry executive told CNBC that the memory chip shortage was expected to persist through 2027.

Andrew Jackson, head of Japanese Equity Strategy at Ortus Advisors, said investors remain concerned about how higher memory prices could affect profitability.

Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa acknowledged the risk but sought to reassure markets.

He said Tuesday that memory price rises were not significantly impacting results for the current financial year, though he cautioned they could hurt profitability if elevated costs persist over the longer term.

Switch 2 outlook and content pipeline

Despite the memory crunch, Nintendo maintained its full-year sales forecast for the Switch 2.

However, analysts remain divided on whether upcoming software releases will be sufficient to drive upgrades.

The company plans to release “Mario Tennis Fever” in February and “Pokémon Pokopia” in March, two titles from its flagship franchises.

It also has “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” scheduled for release in April, following the success of the first Super Mario movie in 2023, which boosted console sales.

James McWhirter, senior analyst at Omdia, told CNBC on Tuesday that 2026 would be a “make-or-break” year for the Switch 2 as Nintendo seeks broader mass-market appeal.

While management struck a cautiously optimistic tone, Furukawa said the company is working with partners to secure long-term, stable memory supply, even as investors remain wary of the broader cost pressures facing hardware makers.

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Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, raising fears of supply disruptions. 

Renewed tensions have surfaced between the US and Iran following the US downing of an Iranian drone that was operating close to an American aircraft carrier.

Additionally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a threat to seize a US-flagged tanker operating in the Strait of Hormuz.

Uncertainty warrants risk premium 

Negotiations are continuing despite these events, according to President Trump. Additionally, the White House confirmed that US-Iran talks remain scheduled for Friday.

“Uncertainty about how these talks will play out means the market will likely continue to price in some risk premium,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group said. 

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $63.82 per barrel, up 1%, while Brent was 0.8% higher at $67.85 a barrel. 

Developments in Iraq also warrant attention, primarily due to rising tensions between the White House and the Iraqi government. 

A significant point of contention is the push by Iraqi politicians to install Nouri Al-Malaki as the next prime minister. 

The US administration views Al-Malaki as overly aligned with Iran, leading President Trump to threaten diplomatic and economic repercussions should his appointment proceed.

Iraq is the second-largest OPEC producer, pumping a little over 4.1 million barrels per day in December.

Scenarios emerging amid US-Iran tensions

“Five scenarios emerge as tensions rise between the US and Iran, with consequences for Iranian crude supply and global oil markets varying greatly,” Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in an emailed commentary.

The shift from a bearish to a bullish outlook could occur under several circumstances, Leon said. First, the two powers might agree to a new nuclear deal. 

Second, the US could carry out limited strikes on Iranian military targets. Third, wider strikes targeting top Iranian leadership could be conducted, leading to their replacement by a new pragmatic or confrontational successor. 

Finally, civil unrest within Iran could reach a critical point.

“Across all five scenarios, Iran’s significance within oil markets extends well beyond its own production profile,” Leon said. 

The country’s geopolitical weight is rooted in its strategic location, its influence over regional security dynamics, and its capacity to disrupt critical energy infrastructure and transit routes.

Limited military action or a progressive shift towards diplomatic normalisation both significantly impact price formation.

This influence is channeled through alterations in the risk premium, volatility, and overall market confidence, Leon added.

Risks and impact

The oil market faces asymmetric risks, as demonstrated by the more severe scenarios. 

While a renewed nuclear deal leading to additional Iranian supply would only result in modest, gradual downward pressure on oil prices, any escalation carries the potential for sharp, non-linear price responses.

Escalating geopolitical events, specifically those leading to sustained instability, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil facilities, would fundamentally diminish the oil market’s capacity to manage disruptions, according to Rystad Energy’s commentary. 

This is because such outcomes would deplete the spare capacity held by OPEC+, the Norway-based energy intelligence company noted. 

In these scenarios, geopolitical risk transitions from being temporary to becoming a foundational, structural element of the global oil market. 

The result would be a long-term outlook characterized by embedded higher prices, heightened volatility, and increased systemic fragility.

Rystad’s analysis of oil prices reveals a distinct asymmetry, with limited and gradual downside risks. 

Should a new nuclear deal be secured, the addition of Iranian supply and the subsequent reduction in risk premium would likely lead to a modest decrease of about $5 per barrel.

Escalation scenarios, conversely, suggest larger and more rapid upward price movements. 

A limited military action could introduce a short-term risk premium, pushing prices up by $5 to $10 per barrel, Rystad said. 

However, a broader conflict scenario would likely trigger immediate price surges of at least $10, and potentially over $15 per barrel, driven by: immediate supply disruptions, threats to transit routes and infrastructure, and the resulting depletion of spare capacity, it added.

Inventory data boosts prices

Meanwhile, the oil market also received a significant lift following a highly bullish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. 

The report revealed a substantial draw in US crude oil inventories, which decreased by 11.1 million barrels last week, far surpassing the market’s expectation of roughly a 640,000-barrel decline. 

In contrast, refined products showed mixed results: gasoline inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, while distillate fuel oil stocks dropped by 4.8 million barrels.

“This reflects the impact of a recent winter storm hitting large parts of the US,” ING’s Patterson said. 

The extreme weather impacted energy infrastructure, leading to increased heating demand.

The eagerly anticipated Energy Information Administration (EIA) report is scheduled for release later today.

Patterson said:

If EIA numbers show a similar drop in crude oil inventories, it would be the largest decline since June 2025.

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Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran pushed gold prices higher on Wednesday, extending the yellow metal’s recent upward trend. 

This safe-haven buying contributed to the gains, following gold’s previous session, which marked its best single day since 2008.

The already escalating tensions between the US and Iran witnessed a direct confrontation in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday, as the American military confirmed the downing of an Iranian drone. 

Geopolitical flare-up and diplomatic back-channel

The incident occurred after the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln, a US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier operating in the area. 

This event underscores the volatile security environment in the Gulf region, a vital international maritime corridor.

The downing of the drone is particularly noteworthy as it comes amidst a delicate diplomatic backdrop. 

Despite the military flare-up, back-channel diplomacy appears to be in motion.

According to an announcement made by Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Tuesday, citing an Arab source, crucial nuclear talks between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place in Oman on Friday. 

These prospective talks are seen as a critical effort to de-escalate the broader crisis and potentially revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the US withdrew from in 2018.

Safe-haven and fundamentals

“Safe‑haven demand, ongoing central‑bank buying, and the outlook for real rates remain supportive over the medium term,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group, said in a note. 

Although shorter-term dynamics triggered the latest rally, the foundation of gold’s multiyear uptrend continues to rest on steady official‑sector accumulation. 

Central banks have continued to be substantial net buyers, despite a slight decrease in their purchases last year. 

At the time of writing, the gold contract on COMEX was at $5,102 per ounce, up 3.4%, while the silver contract was at $87.343 per ounce, up 5% from the previous close. 

Silver prices have also extended gains on Wednesday, mirroring the rise in gold prices. 

Silver prices on COMEX reached a record high of $120 per ounce last week, but fell sharply along with gold on Friday.

The losses continued on Monday, which saw prices coming down to below $75 an ounce. 

Gold prices had fallen from a record peak of $5,600 an ounce to below $4,500 per ounce. 

Despite the likely continuation of high volatility, silver’s medium-term fundamentals are expected to stay largely consistent.

The market remains supported by structurally tight physical balances and industrial demand driven by electrification.

“At the same time, silver’s higher volatility means it is likely to remain more sensitive to shifts in sentiment and positioning than gold,” Manthey said. 

However, for silver to build a more durable recovery, ETF outflows will need to stabilise.

ETF demand remains a crucial driver of prices, even as holdings have declined for eight consecutive days.

US shutdown and Fed rate cut hopes

Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump signed a spending deal into law on Tuesday, bringing an end to the partial government shutdown.

Source: ING Research 

This shutdown has caused delays in the release of key labor data reports originally scheduled for this week.

Meanwhile, investors are anticipating at least two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. 

The market is now looking ahead to the release of the ADP private payroll data later in the day for further insight into the Fed’s future policy direction. 

Non-yielding assets like bullion typically see improved performance when interest rates are lower. 

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The LSEG share price is in a steep freefall as concerns about its business continue. London Stock Exchange stock tumbled to a low of 7,180p, its lowest level since March 2023. It has dropped by over 40% from its highest point in February 2025. 

Why the LSEG share price has crashed 

The London Stock Exchange stock price has crashed in the past few months, moving from a high of 12,025p to a low of 7,200p.

There are two primary reasons why the stock has been in a strong downward trend this year. First, there are concerns that a major part of its business will be disrupted by the fast-growing artificial intelligence tools, especially those made by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.

The main concern is that these AI companies have come up with tools that may disrupt some of its businesses. That’s because, while the London Stock Exchange is known for running the biggest exchange in London, its most important business is in the data industry.

Anthropic, the creator of Claude, unveiled a new tool allowing customers to simplify the legal industry. The plugin can help companies speed up the legal process by automating NDA triage, contract review, and compliance workflows.

While Anthropic’s plugin may disrupt the industry, we believe that it will be a companion to LSEG’s solutions. This means that clients will likely not end their contracts with LSEG.

LSEG share price has also crashed because of the ongoing IPO drought in London. There have been no major IPOs in the past few months. Still, on the positive side, some companies like Monzo, Revolut, and  Starling Bank may opt to go public this year. Some, however, may opt to list in the United States.

London Stock Exchange Group’s business is doing well 

The most recent results showed that the company’s business is doing well. Its data and analytics business made over $982 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up by 2.9% YoY. 

The company’s FTSE Russell business made £241 million, up by 7.1% YoY, while the risk intelligence grew by 9.9% to £144 million. 

Additionally, the management maintained its strong forward guidance. Its guidance is for its organic income growth of between 6.5% and 7.5%. It also expects that the adjusted EBITDA will increase by between 75 and 100 basis points.

LSEG has also announced a strategy to accelerate its shareholder returns. It deployed over £3.5 billion to these returns and strategic acquisitions.

LSEG share price technical analysis 

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the LSEG stock price has crashed in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of 12,025p in February last year to the current 7,180p. 

The stock has moved below the key support level at 8,125, its lowest level in September last year. It is about to form a death cross pattern, which happens when the 50-week and 200-week moving averages cross each other. 

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock will continue falling as sellers target the key support at 5,918p, its lowest level in February 2022. The stock will then bounce back later this year or in 2027 as the AI fears ease.

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Asian markets traded mostly lower on Wednesday, tracking a broad sell-off in US technology stocks overnight, while gold extended gains for a second session.

Investor sentiment across the region was weighed down by losses in global tech, fresh uncertainty around artificial intelligence disruption, and a series of policy and legal developments in the United States.

Asian markets track Wall Street losses

Equity markets across Asia-Pacific were mixed but largely weaker.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, dragged down by technology and semiconductor-related names.

Chip equipment maker Lasertec plunged 7%, while Tokyo Electron slid 1.8%. Konami Group dropped 7.15%.

The broader Topix index, however, gained 0.32%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 reversed early losses to close 0.80% higher, while South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.51% and the Kosdaq gained 0.32%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.25%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose by 0.61%.

Nintendo shares dropped more than 11%, despite the company maintaining its full-year sales forecast for the Switch 2 console.

Investors remained focused on potential headwinds, including whether Nintendo could be affected by a sharp rise in memory prices, a key component in gaming hardware.

In commodities, spot gold rose more than 2.24% to $5,057 an ounce, extending gains as risk sentiment weakened.

Spot silver added 2.4% to $87.22 an ounce.

Nvidia’s funding talks with OpenAI

Nvidia is nearing a deal to invest roughly $20 billion in OpenAI as part of the ChatGPT maker’s latest funding round, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The investment would mark Nvidia’s single largest deal to date. The contribution is close to being completed, though the deal is not final and terms could still change.

OpenAI is seeking to raise up to $100 billion in the round, which could value the company at around $830 billion, according to the report.

Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has publicly signalled support for the investment, saying the company plans to make a “huge” investment in OpenAI and would consider participating in its next fundraising round and eventual IPO.

At the same time, the Financial Times reported that Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China have been delayed due to a US national security review, adding another layer of uncertainty for the chipmaker.

New York and New Jersey sue Trump administration

In the United States, the Trump administration was sued again on Tuesday, this time by the states of New York and New Jersey, over the suspension of federal financing for the $16 billion Gateway rail tunnel project under the Hudson River.

The states alleged that the funding cutoff was a “politically motivated attempt to punish and coerce those with whom the President disagrees.”

New York Attorney General Letitia James warned that losing the project “could be disastrous for commuters, workers, and our regional economy.”

The Gateway Development Commission said it would have to halt work on Feb. 6 if funding is not restored.

Anthropic sparks global software sell-off

A fresh wave of selling hit global software stocks after Anthropic released a new AI automation tool, triggering fears of disruption across legal, financial services, and data providers.

A Goldman Sachs basket of US software stocks fell 6%, its worst one-day drop since April, while an index of financial services firms tumbled nearly 7%.

Asian software names also slid.

Tata Consultancy Services fell as much as 6.5%, Infosys dropped 8.1%, and Australia’s Xero plunged up to 15.9%.

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Polymarket is stepping away from screens and apps and into the physical world.

The crypto-based prediction market platform is opening a free grocery store in New York City, pairing the initiative with a major donation aimed at tackling food insecurity.

Announced on Feb. 3, the project marks an unusual move for a digital-native company and places Polymarket directly into a live policy and social debate playing out in the city.

The pop-up store is scheduled to open later this month and will operate independently of any trading activity, signalling a deliberate shift from markets and probabilities to tangible community engagement.