Argentina, Guyana, and Brazil are on track to spearhead Latin American oil production growth in 2026, though the potential reintegration of Venezuelan output casts uncertainty over the region’s long-term capital expenditure outlook, Rystad Energy said in its latest update.

Despite the supermajors’ long-term caution regarding underwriting risks in Venezuela, the country is seeing increased engagement from traders and companies like Trafigura and Hillcorp, according to Rystad’s report. 

These entities are attracted to short-term, structured opportunities, which suggests a potential shift in portfolio strategies.

Venezuela’s return casts uncertainty

Despite lingering legal uncertainties and weak institutional legitimacy, the recent lifting of sanctions and the overhaul of Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law support US initiatives to promote the sale of Venezuelan oil.

Flagship oil projects in Argentina, Guyana, and Brazil are forecast to maintain a competitive edge over Venezuela’s supply through at least 2030, according to Rystad Energy’s analysis. 

These projects are expected to boost oil production by over 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. 

While Venezuela could potentially add 300,000 bpd to the market in the short term, investment is unlikely to shift from the current strong Latin American producers to Venezuela’s struggling infrastructure, given the uncertain business climate.

“A Venezuelan oil industry makeover will be costly and lengthy, with the big three in the region – Argentina, Guyana and Brazil – remaining largely indifferent to the estimated, near-term return of Venezuelan crude,” Radhika Bansal, vice president, oil & gas research at Rystad Energy, said in the analysis.

Oversupply, whether from Venezuelan or even Iranian barrels, is what is truly testing the financial resilience of operators who would otherwise gain from a revived oil industry in the Bolivarian Republic. 

Investment focus shifts to near-certain ROI 

Investment in Latin America is projected to rise in 2026, yet the volume of conventional reserves brought into production will be 45% less than the previous year, the agency’s calculations showed. 

This indicates a strategic shift towards consolidating investment on projects that offer a near-certain return on investment (ROI). 

Following a year of substantially lower Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in the region, 2026 is anticipated to follow a similar pattern.

Capital will predominantly be directed to new (greenfield) projects in Guyana and Suriname. 

Concurrently, Argentina is poised to spearhead investment in existing (brownfield) projects, driven by the aggressive acceleration of production in Vaca Muerta.

Latin America’s oil production is projected to surpass 8.8 million bpd this year.

This significant output is the primary driver of non-OPEC+ supply growth, highlighting a shift in the region where it is no longer a unified oil entity. 

Instead, the “big three” now dominate the sector’s future, with many other players falling behind.

Brazil is set to be the main engine of this growth in 2026, with production anticipated to exceed 4.2 million bpd. 

Shale and deepwater drive robust investment growth

This is largely supported by the large scale, resilience, and cost-competitiveness of its pre-salt developments.

Brazil’s production increase this year is specifically linked to the ramp-ups and start-ups of new floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels.

The primary catalyst for heightened regional investment is the thriving shale sector, projected to expand from $9.4 billion in 2025 to almost $11 billion this year, entirely driven by Argentina, according to Rystad Energy. 

Furthermore, the offshore deepwater sector is anticipated to attract $42 billion in investment in 2026, marking a 7.7% increase year-over-year, the analysis showed. 

This upward trend is underpinned by robust fundamentals in the Vaca Muerta shale, along with stable production from pre-salt reserves and emerging opportunities in Guyana and Suriname.

Smaller energy companies are showing interest in Venezuela for several reasons. The licenses granted lower the initial capital investment required. 

Additionally, they provide a source of heavy crude oil for US Gulf Coast refineries at favorable prices. This setup also allows traders to manage the complex logistics, blending, and licensing requirements necessary for selling Venezuelan crude.

Despite short-term shifts in focus toward Venezuela, the economic viability of projects with long lead times and substantial upfront investments, such as those in offshore Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname, remains strong. 

These projects are secured by competitive breakeven prices, making them less sensitive to current oil price fluctuations. 

Similarly, the Vaca Muerta shale play—although a shorter-cycle development—is also positioned for resilience against a potential Venezuelan market re-entry and declining prices, thanks to its commitment to new infrastructure development.

Long-term viability and impact on regional neighbors

“Supposing oil demand stays resilient through 2035, and the impact of years-long underinvestment is fully felt, Venezuelan barrels would become far more relevant,” Bansal said. 

Venezuelan oil production could become economically viable, particularly if oil prices rise, provided the industry begins making more long-term, financially sound decisions now, she added.

However, more attractive barrels will still be at play, with Venezuela’s extra-heavy, emissions-intensive oil posing persistent challenges. 

In the near term, countries geographically close to Venezuela, beyond the “big three,” may establish unique relationships within an open exploration and production (E&P) market. 

Specifically, Trinidad and Tobago could benefit from opportunities to use Venezuelan offshore gas to supply its liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities.

Colombia faces potential challenges, including increased competition for capital due to its limited remaining oil development opportunities. 

Furthermore, the country may experience labor competition, as the revitalisation of Venezuela’s oil production will likely require a specialised workforce currently available in Colombia.

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British oil major Shell reported its weakest quarterly profit in nearly five years on Thursday, a slump attributed to a softer crude price environment and unfavorable tax adjustments in the fourth quarter.

Crude oil prices hovered around $60 per barrel in the last quarter of 2025 as oversupply concerns dampened sentiments among investors. 

Q4 earnings miss and 2026 outlook

Shell missed Wall Street expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report. The company posted Non-GAAP earnings per ADS of $1.12, which was $0.17 below estimates. 

Shell reported adjusted earnings of $3.3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside $9.4 billion in cash flow from operations.

The company missed analyst expectations of $3.5 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.

Revenue for the quarter totaled $64.09 billion, falling short of projections by $1.73 billion and representing a 3.3% decline compared to the previous year.

The company’s outlook for 2026 includes projected cash capital expenditures in the range of $20 billion to $22 billion, with specific production and utilisation targets planned across its business segments.

Global operational profile and reserves

Shell is a leading integrated global energy company, deeply involved in all aspects of the oil and gas industry. 

Its extensive operations span the globe, encompassing the exploration for new reserves, the production of crude oil and natural gas, and the refining of these raw materials into various petroleum products. 

The company remains a major global producer, showcasing significant output figures. 

In 2024, Shell’s production capacity was considerable, generating an average of 1.5 million barrels of liquids and a substantial 7.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, underscoring its pivotal role in meeting the world’s energy demands.

As of year-end 2024, the company’s total reserves were 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with liquids accounting for 48% of this total. 

These production and reserve assets are distributed across Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, North America, and South America. 

The company’s refining capacity stands at 1.6 million barrels per day (mmb/d) across facilities located in the Americas, Asia, and Europe. 

Full-year performance and shareholder action

Furthermore, it has a substantial chemicals business, selling approximately 12 million tons annually.

The largest chemical production sites are often integrated with local refineries and are situated in Central Europe, China, Singapore, and North America.

Meanwhile, Shell’s adjusted earnings for the full-year 2025 fell short of expectations, reaching $18.5 billion.

This figure represents a decline from the $23.72 billion in annual profit reported a year prior.

“I’d start off by saying it was actually a very strong operational quarter for us,” Shell CEO Wael Sawan was quoted as saying in a CNBC report. 

A few things hurt us this quarter. Number one was some tax adjustments which went against us, chemicals has indeed been weak, but I would look to the strength actually of our integrated gas, upstream and marketing businesses.

The company has declared a 4% rise in its dividend, bringing it to $0.372 per share. Furthermore, a $3.5 billion share buyback program was announced. This marks the 17th quarter in a row that the company has authorised buybacks of $3 billion or more.

Net debt increased to $45.7 billion by year-end, resulting in a gearing of 20.7%. This compares to the end of the third quarter, when net debt stood at $41.2 billion, and gearing was 18.8%.

Shell’s London-listed shares saw a decline of 1.1% in trading. Despite this drop, the stock has still appreciated by approximately 2.7% since the beginning of the year.

Lower oil prices are forcing European energy majors to make difficult decisions, with a challenging market and expected weak earnings season putting shareholder payouts at risk.

Upon taking the job about three years ago, Shell’s Sawan stated that his goal was to instill a high-performance culture within the company.

Fourth-quarter earnings reports are anticipated next week from both Britain’s BP and France’s TotalEnergies.

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US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded another day of heavy withdrawals on Wednesday, as falling cryptocurrency prices and broader risk-off sentiment continued to weigh on investor confidence.

According to data from SoSoValue, investors pulled $544.94 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs during the session, marking the second consecutive day of net outflows.

The latest withdrawals followed $272 million in redemptions on Tuesday, bringing the two-day total to $816.96 million.

The renewed selling pressure came as Bitcoin extended its recent decline, underscoring the fragile mood across digital asset markets.

BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale lead outflows

Products managed by major asset managers accounted for most of Wednesday’s withdrawals.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, led the day’s outflows, with $373.44 million exiting the fund.

Fidelity’s FBTC followed with outflows of $86.44 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC saw $41.77 million in redemptions.

Funds managed by Ark & 21Shares, VanEck and Franklin Templeton also reported net outflows during the session.

The withdrawals came only days after a brief rebound in flows. On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $562 million in net inflows, their strongest single-day intake since mid-January.

The largest inflow of the year remains $843.62 million, recorded on January 14.

Bitcoin hits lowest level since 2024

The outflow pressure coincided with a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $70,000 late on Wednesday, touching its lowest level since October 2024.

The move reflected broader risk aversion across global financial markets, as investors reduced exposure to higher-volatility assets.

Analysts said the combination of equity market weakness, geopolitical uncertainty and tightening financial conditions has contributed to renewed pressure on digital assets.

Despite a modest recovery earlier in the week, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum, leaving ETF investors exposed to further downside.

Long-term footprint remains sizable

Even with the latest withdrawals, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to represent a significant presence in the crypto market.

Since their launch two years ago, the funds have accumulated $54.75 billion in total net inflows.

Their combined net assets now account for about 6.36% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalisation, highlighting the role institutional products continue to play in shaping market dynamics.

Cumulative net inflows currently stand at around $54.8 billion, roughly 13% below the peak level of $62.9 billion recorded in October last year.

“That’s not too shabby considering these funds took in around $63 billion at their peak,” James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, wrote in a post on X on Wednesday.

Pressure spreads to other crypto ETFs

Outflows were not limited to Bitcoin products.

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $79.48 million in net withdrawals on Wednesday, with activity concentrated in two funds.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust saw $58.95 million leave the product, while Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund reported $20.53 million in outflows.

Other Ethereum ETFs posted flat flows.

By contrast, US spot XRP ETFs attracted $4.83 million in net inflows, with Franklin Templeton’s XRP Fund accounting for more than half of the total.

Spot Solana ETFs, however, posted net outflows exceeding $6 million.

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Shares of Volvo Cars slid sharply on Thursday after the carmaker reported a steep fall in fourth-quarter operating profit, highlighting how tariffs, currency headwinds, and cooling demand are squeezing margins across the auto sector.

The stock dropped more than 25%, putting Volvo Cars on track for its worst trading day on record.

The reaction reflected investor concern over the scale of the earnings decline and the company’s exposure to trade policy shifts and slowing markets, particularly in the US and China.

Volvo Cars, which is majority owned by Geely Holding, said pressures intensified toward the end of 2025 as competition increased, incentives faded, and pricing power weakened.

Earnings miss jolts markets

The company reported that fourth-quarter operating income excluding items affecting comparability fell 68% from a year earlier to 1.8 billion Swedish krona, or about $200 million.

The drop was attributed to a combination of US tariffs, negative currency effects, and weaker demand, especially in China.

The withdrawal of electric vehicle incentives in both the US and China added to the strain during the quarter, compounding the impact of softer consumer spending.

While Volvo Cars flagged internal progress on cost controls and cash flow, markets focused on the limited buffer left against further external shocks.

The sell-off accelerated as trading progressed, with the stock firmly on course for a record single-day decline.

Forecasts under review

Following the results, analysts moved to reassess expectations for the year ahead.

UBS said the profit miss could lead to 10% to 15% downgrades to full-year 2026 consensus earnings before interest and taxes.

The bank also pointed to underlying EBIT margins that were close to zero in the final three months of 2025, raising concerns about how resilient profits may be if pricing pressure and weak volumes persist.

Tariff exposure in focus

Trade policy remains a central risk for Volvo Cars. Under a framework agreement reached between the US and EU in July last year, the Trump administration imposed a 15% blanket tariff on most EU goods.

While lower than earlier threats, the measure still adds high costs for European exporters.

For automakers, the deal reduced the tariff rate from 27.5%, but industry groups warned the burden would remain material.

Volvo Cars has long been viewed as one of the most exposed European manufacturers due to its reliance on the US market.

Electric push continues

Despite the pressure, Volvo Cars is pressing ahead with its electric vehicle strategy.

The company said deliveries of its fully electric EX60 mid-size SUV are expected to ramp up in the second half of 2026, a key step in its transition plans.

However, management cautioned that the year ahead is likely to remain difficult, with ongoing pricing pressure, tariff effects, regulatory uncertainty, and softer consumer sentiment continuing to weigh on the industry.

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Novo Nordisk stock (NVO) plunged approximately 15% after the Danish pharmaceutical giant posted better-than-expected 2025 results but delivered a weak 2026 outlook.

The company reported full-year 2025 sales growth of 10% at constant exchange rates, remaining within its prior guidance range of 8-11%, yet warned that sales will collapse between 5% to 13% in 2026.

That abrupt reversal triggered panic selling as investors grasped that Novo’s obesity and diabetes drug empire faces relentless competitive pressure and pricing headwinds.

The paradox displays Novo Nordisk’s predicament: Wegovy and Ozempic remain blockbusters with global demand, yet that dominance is eroding fast.

For 2025, the company delivered DKK 309 billion in sales (approximately $48-$49 billion), underpinned by continued strength in Wegovy and Ozempic.

Operating profit grew 6%, beating the low end of guidance. On any other earnings day, this print would trigger a rally, but on Tuesday, it triggered capitulation.

Novo Nordisk stock: Why guidance alarmed investors

The 2026 sales decline forecast exposes Novo’s major crisis: the company explicitly told shareholders to expect US operations to contract.

Management forecast “sales growth in International Operations while expecting a downturn within US Operations,” the company’s way of saying that it is losing share in the world’s largest obesity and diabetes market.

The guidance assumes three structural headwinds.

First, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro have captured dominant prescription share; data from late 2025 shows Zepbound accounts for 59% of prescriptions versus Wegovy’s 40%.

Second, generic and compounded versions of semaglutide (Novo’s active ingredient) have proliferated in the US, eroding branded pricing power.

Third, US government price negotiations and insurance formula shifts are squeezing reimbursement margins.

CEO Mike Doustdar stated the company is banking on the Wegovy oral pill and the next-generation injectable CagriSema to recapture the US market share.

Both are critical catalysts, yet neither is guaranteed to move the needle given Eli Lilly’s first-mover advantage with its own pill formulation set to launch in H1 2026.​

Competition, pricing and patent pressure

Novo’s semaglutide patent faces expiration in major markets, including Canada, Brazil, and China during 2026, opening those territories to generic competition immediately.

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) has demonstrated superior weight loss in head-to-head clinical trials.

Barclays analyst James Gordon warned that the 2026 guidance could trigger further analyst downgrades.

Though he noted the outlook might eventually offer “a moment for investors to reassess” if Novo’s oral launch gains traction in the self-pay channel.

Yet that is a risky call: if Wegovy pills cannibalize Ozempic prescriptions without winning back share from Lilly, operating leverage evaporates.​

Novo’s 2025 shares fell 46.5%, and early 2026 has brought little relief.

The stock’s near-term fate hinges on prescription data from US pharmacies over the next 90 days.

If Wegovy pills show momentum, a relief rally is possible. If Lilly continues gaining, further downside toward $45–$48 looms.

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Broadcom stock (NASDAQ: AVGO) plunged about 6.6% in heavy trading on Tuesday as investors digested worries that rapid AI-driven sales could squeeze margins.

Tuesday’s slide took the Broadcom stock price to roughly $309 a share from the prior session’s close near $336, intensifying questions about whether the “AI trade” is beginning to show cracks.

Broadcom stock: Margins, backlog dynamics and profit-taking

The immediate trigger for the rout appears to be a replay of concerns first aired after Broadcom’s December guidance.

The investors expressed caution that the booming demand for custom AI processors comes with lower gross margins than the company’s legacy silicon businesses.

That warning has left investors parsing the trade-off between strong top-line growth and compressed profitability.

Reuters noted the earlier margin caveat that sparked a sharp December sell-off and remains the reference point for market angst.

Behind the headline numbers, the company’s large AI order book complicates the picture.

Analysts and reports have repeatedly cited a multi-year AI backlog that supports revenue visibility, but margin mix matters.

A $73 billion backlog can underpin growth while still producing short-term margin pressure if a higher share of revenue shifts into lower-margin custom designs.

That dynamic helps explain why traders have been willing to take profits after a sustained period of gains.

Technical factors also played a role. Hedge funds and momentum traders often add to momentum and unwind positions quickly when volatility spikes.

Taken together, the market move appears to be a combination of renewed margin concerns, profit-taking following a rally, and short-term technical factors.

AI trade and the wider chip complex

Broadcom’s sell-off is a useful stress-test for the broader AI narrative.

If the move is idiosyncratic: tied to Broadcom’s specific margin mix and product cadence, it’s a warning but not a systemic repudiation of AI exposure across semiconductors.

If other AI-exposed names begin to show similar multiple compression on execution or margin concerns, investors will likely reassess valuations across the sector.

Practical near-term implications include higher volatility around the next corporate data points.

Broadcom is confirmed to report its fiscal first-quarter results on March 4, 2026, an event that will likely determine whether this pullback is a buying opportunity or the start of a longer correction.

Traders should watch guidance on gross margins, customer timing, and whether major hyperscalers alter buying cadence.

A single day’s 6% move doesn’t settle the debate over AI’s returns, but re-focuses attention on margins and execution.

The investors must verify the exact price action, parse management’s gross-margin guidance on March 4, and track whether the weakness spreads to other AI-sensitive chip names.

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