The Ocado share price continued its strong downward trend, turning one of the top UK companies into a fallen angel. After soaring to a record high of 2,913p in 2020, it has plunged to 306p. This plunge has erased billions in value in the past few years.

Why Ocado share price has plunged 

Ocado Group is one of the biggest technology companies in the UK. It offers several solutions, including retail, logistics, and technology solutions. 

Ocado Retail is an online supermarket serving about 80% of UK households. It operates as a 50:50 joint venture with Marks & Spencer. 

The company also operates a logistics business, which runs fulfillment and delivery solutions for Ocado Retail and other chains like Morrisons. 

Ocado’s technology solutions, which has over 3,000 patents, builds automated warehouses for retailers. Some of the retailers in its ecosystem are companies like Kroger, Sobeys, Groupe Casino, Coles Group, and Aeon.

Ocado share price has plunged despite modest revenue growth in this period. Its revenue rose to over £3.16 billion last year, much higher than £2.8 billion a year earlier. Its revenue stood at £1.4 billion. 

One reason why the Ocado stock price has plunged is its strong losses. The company made a pre-tax loss of £375 million, down from £394 million a year earlier. Ocado’ total annual loss jumped to over £1.74 billion.

The most recent results showed that the revenue by 13% to £674 million in the first half of this year. Its technology solutions revenue rose by 15% to £277 million, while the logistics rose by 12% to £397 million. 

Ocado Retail revenue continued growing in the year’s first half as the revenue continued growing. It revenue rose by 16% to £1.6 billion, while the gross profit jumped by 15% to £509 million. 

Ocado’s retail segment’s EBITDA jumped to £33 million. Most notably, the average orders per week rose by 14% to £491 million, while the average order basket rose to £124. 

On the positive side, the company has a path to positive cash flow. It made an underlying cash outflow improved to £108 million in the year’s first half, better than £201 million in the same period last year. The company reaffirmed its guidance and now hopes to become cash flow positive next year. 

Ocado stock price technical analysis 

The weekly chart shows that the OCDO stock price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months.

Ocado has remained below the 100-week Exponential Moving Average, a sign that the downtrend is still intact. Its recent attempts to rebound failed at that moving average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped and is about to move below the neutral point at 50.

On the positive side, the stock has formed a falling wedge chart pattern on the weekly chart. This pattern is made up of two descending and converging trendlines, and could be about to retest the upper side. A break-and-retest pattern is a common bullish continuation sign.

Therefore, Ocado share price will likely drop to 250p, down by 25% from the current level and then rebound later next year. 

The alternative scenario is where the stock rises above the important resistance level at 395p, its highest level this year and then continues its uptrend.

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Holiday sales in the United States are set to increase at the slowest pace since the pandemic, according to Deloitte’s latest forecast, released on Wednesday, reported by Reuters.

The study, which examined consumer behaviour and broader economic conditions, reveals how inflation, tariffs, and policy uncertainty are influencing purchasing decisions ahead of the peak shopping season.

With retailers issuing mixed outlooks, the November 2025 to January 2026 period will test how households balance higher prices with festive spending, a factor that directly impacts chains from Walmart to Macy’s, and even toymakers like Mattel.

Deloitte sees sales rising to $1.61 trillion-$1.62 trillion

Deloitte projects US holiday sales will rise between 2.9% and 3.4%, reaching $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion this season.

This compares with a 4.2% increase a year earlier, and a stronger 7.2% jump in 2020-21, when spending rebounded after initial pandemic restrictions.

The forecast relies on data from the US Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, placing the projected growth at its weakest pace in five years.

Consumers are becoming selective, with surveys showing a willingness to cut back or spread purchases differently across the season.

A PwC survey earlier in September predicted the steepest fall in holiday spending since the pandemic, pointing to younger groups such as Gen Z as among those tightening budgets.

E-commerce still outpaces in-store sales growth

Digital shopping remains resilient in the overall slowdown.

Deloitte expects e-commerce sales to grow between 7% and 9% this season, broadly in line with the 8% growth recorded last year.

In comparison, in-store sales are forecast to rise by just 2% to 2.2%, down from 3.4% in 2024.

This contrast reflects the structural shift in consumer behaviour, with online platforms continuing to attract shoppers even as retailers invest in both digital and physical channels.

The figures also show how the market is adjusting to post-pandemic patterns. In 2019-20, holiday sales rose 4.9%, but the surge to 7.2% in 2020-21 was driven by pent-up demand and stimulus measures.

Since then, growth rates have gradually slowed, reflecting tougher macroeconomic conditions and the removal of fiscal support.

Retailers split on their forecasts

The outlook for the 2025 holiday season comes as major US retailers share diverging expectations.

Walmart and Macy’s have raised their annual forecasts, signalling confidence in consumer demand, while Target and Best Buy have maintained their guidance.

Toymaker Mattel, in contrast, has cut its forecast, showing caution about holiday demand for discretionary goods.

These moves underline the uneven performance across retail categories, with essentials such as groceries likely to hold up better than big-ticket or luxury items.

Deloitte also noted that some consumers may be front-loading purchases due to concerns over tariffs and inflationary pressures.

This trend could shift sales away from the traditional late-December peak, complicating retailers’ inventory planning.

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The European Commission is weighing restrictions on social media access for children under 16, aligning with growing international scrutiny of digital platforms.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to assemble a panel to examine possible measures by the end of the year, as Europe looks to follow developments in Australia, where similar rules will be enforced from 10 December.

The move reflects a broader trend of governments worldwide adopting stronger online age checks, aiming to limit children’s exposure to harmful content and features that encourage longer screen time.

EU reviews child safety rules for social media

Ursula von der Leyen addressed the issue in her annual State of the Union speech on Wednesday.

She noted that societies already set minimum ages for activities such as smoking, drinking, and watching adult content, and said it was time to consider similar protections for digital platforms.

The European Commission will draw insights from Australia’s rollout and will review proposals submitted by member states.

According to Bloomberg, France, Spain, and Greece have already called for mandatory EU-wide age restrictions on social networks.

At present, major platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, and YouTube require users to be at least 13 years old to create an account, but enforcement varies, and age checks remain limited.

Global push for stronger online age checks

Governments worldwide have stepped up efforts to strengthen protections for children online.

In July, the UK introduced mandatory age verification for adult content and pornography websites, ensuring users are at least 18 years old.

Ireland followed with similar requirements for video-sharing platforms, while the US Supreme Court cleared the way for individual states to mandate age checks for porn sites.

Australia’s policy, set to take effect on 10 December, will apply to major platforms including Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, X, and YouTube.

The government there has said the primary aim is to safeguard children from excessive exposure to harmful or addictive online features.

Tech companies resist restrictions

The proposals in Australia have faced opposition from technology companies, which argue that reliable enforcement of age restrictions is difficult.

However, a government-funded trial conducted earlier this year found no major technological barriers to implementing such checks.

In Europe, representatives for Google, Meta, TikTok, and X did not immediately respond to requests for comment following von der Leyen’s announcement.

Despite resistance from the industry, governments continue to advance measures that could set new global standards for regulating children’s digital access.

Next steps for Europe

The European Commission’s panel is expected to deliver recommendations before the end of the year, shaping the EU’s approach to children’s online safety.

While the details remain under discussion, the bloc’s alignment with Australia signals that stricter rules could be on the horizon for social media companies operating in Europe.

The discussions reflect growing consensus among policymakers that existing protections are insufficient in an environment where children are increasingly exposed to risks through online platforms.

The outcome of Australia’s enforcement in December will likely provide a critical reference point for Europe’s own regulatory strategy.

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3iQ Corp. (“3iQ”), a global provider of digital asset investment solutions, announced that the 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ, SOLQ.U) has crossed CAD 300 million in assets under management (AUM), while the 3iQ XRP ETF (TSX: XRPQ, XRPQ.U) has surpassed CAD 150 million.

Both ETFs, launched earlier this year, have quickly become the largest in their respective categories among Canadian peers, reinforcing 3iQ’s position in regulated digital asset investment products.

SOLQ, which launched in April, saw early momentum with a lead investment from SkyBridge Capital and additional backing from firms including ARK Investment (ARK).

ARK gained exposure to Solana and its staking rewards through investments in SOLQ via the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF)—marking the first US-listed ETFs to include Solana.

Management fees for SOLQ will remain waived until April 2026.

XRPQ launched in June to broad recognition.

With a 0% management fee for its first six months, it positioned itself as one of the most competitively priced digital asset ETFs in the market.

Ripple, a leading provider of enterprise blockchain and crypto solutions, was among the early investors in the fund.

These early commitments supported investor confidence in both SOLQ and XRPQ and contributed to growing adoption across a wide range of investors, including individuals, wealth advisors, institutions, and family offices.

“The momentum behind SOLQ and XRPQ demonstrates that Canadian investors and global leaders in the digital asset space are embracing secure, transparent, and regulated access to digital assets,” said Pascal St-Jean, President and CEO of 3iQ

Both ETFs have built distinct advantages that are difficult to replicate.

SOLQ has emerged as the primary vehicle for investors seeking exposure to Solana, offering liquidity, growth potential, and staking rewards within a regulated ETF structure.

XRPQ has established itself as the leading ETF focused on XRP, combining institutional-grade cold storage with cost-efficient access to one of the most actively traded digital assets globally.

By scaling rapidly, both funds have created durable competitive advantages that strengthen 3iQ’s position in the digital asset ETF market.

Since its inception, 3iQ has been recognised as a pioneer in digital asset investment solutions.

The firm introduced the world’s first exchange-listed Bitcoin and Ether funds, was the first to integrate staking rewards into Ether strategies, and has launched market-leading ETFs for Solana and XRP.

Through these milestones, 3iQ has continued to set the pace for innovation with a model that is now being adopted worldwide.

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Gold and crude oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, with copper prices remaining largely unchanged from the previous close. 

Silver prices jumped by more than 1% on Wednesday as the metal flirted with the $42 per ounce level. 

Oil prices rose as geopolitical tensions simmered, raising fears about disruptions.

Gold hovers near record highs

Gold prices remained near an all-time high on Wednesday, supported by anticipated US interest rate cuts later this month. 

Market participants are now awaiting US inflation data, which is expected to provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions.

Last week’s US nonfarm payroll data indicated a weakening labour market, solidifying the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September policy meeting.

Additionally, the government reported on Tuesday that the US economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March than initially estimated. 

This suggests that job growth was already decelerating before the implementation of President Donald Trump’s aggressive import tariffs.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut with a 92% probability.

The chances of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut are considerably lower, at approximately 8%.

“In the meantime, bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by last Friday’s weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, keep a lid on the overnight USD recovery and help revive demand for the non-yielding Gold,” Haresh Menghani, editor at FXstreet, said in a report. 

Persistent trade uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and political jitters in France and Japan are additional factors bolstering the appeal of this safe-haven precious metal.

This, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook for the commodity and suggests that any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity.

Oil extends gains

Oil prices also continued to rise this week, boosted by Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, Poland’s downing of drones, and a US push for new sanctions on Russian oil buyers.

However, oversupply concerns limited gains for the black liquid on Wednesday. 

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $63.09 a barrel, up 0.7% from the previous close. 

Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $66.88 a barrel, also up 0.7%. 

Prices had settled up 0.6% in the previous trading session after Israel announced an attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. 

While both benchmarks initially rose nearly 2% following the attack, they subsequently retraced much of those gains.

Separately, geopolitical tensions escalated when Poland shot down drones during a widespread Russian attack in western Ukraine on Wednesday. 

This incident marked the first time a NATO member fired shots in the conflict, though there was no immediate threat of a supply disruption.

Media reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has encouraged the European Union to implement 100% tariffs on China and India.

This measure is intended as a tactic to exert pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s finances have been bolstered by significant oil purchases from major buyers like China and India.

The supply outlook remains bearish. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that global crude prices will face significant pressure in the coming months due to increasing inventories as OPEC+ raises output.

Precious metals surge

Silver prices surged by 1.2% on Wednesday to trade at $41.851 per ounce. 

The gold/silver ratio remained largely stable, at 88.66 on Wednesday, a negligible change from 88.67 recorded on Tuesday. 

This ratio indicates how many ounces of silver are required to match the value of one ounce of gold.

On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, the price of silver saw increased buyer interest.

Amidst a weakening US dollar and rising Middle East tensions, the value of white metal is increasing.

Investors will closely monitor the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for August, set to be released later today, Wednesday, for further market direction.

Elsewhere, platinum saw a 2% increase, reaching $1,402.10, while palladium jumped by 5% to $1,200.

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Dow futures dipped slightly Wednesday morning as traders waited nervously for producer price inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.

The PPI report has Wall Street on edge after major indexes hit record highs recently.

Investors are walking a tightrope as they want inflation to stay manageable without being so strong that it forces the Fed to get more aggressive with rate hikes.

The mixed sentiment reflects broader uncertainty about whether the current rally can continue if economic data starts pointing toward persistent price pressures.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. Stock futures moved in different directions Wednesday morning, with tech-heavy indexes climbing while the Dow pulled back.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got a boost from Oracle’s positive earnings forecast, which had investors feeling better about technology companies again.

But there’s plenty of caution in the air as traders wait for producer price numbers that could tell us whether inflation is really under control.

The Dow’s decline shows not everyone’s convinced this rally has legs, especially with the Fed still making decisions about interest rates.

Trading was busy before the market opened, with investors trying to figure out if recent record highs can continue or if today’s inflation data might spoil the party.

2. Pre-market trading has seen notable volatility in several major stocks.

Oracle leads gainers, soaring over 20% after unveiling an impressive surge in multicloud database revenue, up more than 1,500% on the year, riding AI-fueled demand.

Tesla stock has also gained, buoyed by renewed optimism for its AI initiatives and core vehicle production metrics.

On the losing end, Walgreens Boots Alliance tumbled after its revenue warning and the announcement of additional restructuring efforts, weighing on the healthcare sector.

CVS Health and Brown-Forman are among the notable decliners due to weak outlooks and persistent earnings pressures.

3. Today’s producer price numbers for August have everyone’s attention since they could signal where inflation is really heading.

Economists are expecting a 0.3% monthly increase, which would be more manageable than July’s surprisingly hot reading that got people worried about sticky prices again.

These figures will heavily influence what the Fed does next week at its meeting. If prices came in hotter than expected, it might kill hopes for rate cuts anytime soon.

But if the numbers look softer, it could give the central bank more room to ease up on policy. Traders will be watching both the headline number and the core reading to get the full picture.

4. Tech stocks are showing strength on the charts, with the Nasdaq pushing past previous highs thanks to companies like Oracle, Amazon, and Broadcom leading the charge.

The index is bumping up against resistance around 24,250, but has solid support at 23,691 if things turn south.

The S&P 500 is stuck in a narrow range between 6,490 and 6,512, though a break above 6,533 could signal more gains ahead.

The Dow is moving sideways with 45,000 as the key level bulls need to hold. While some indicators suggest markets are getting overbought, today’s inflation data could be the catalyst that pushes indexes in either direction.

5. Markets drifted on Wednesday as everyone waited for US inflation data. Asia closed down after China’s numbers came out, Europe stayed flat on economic worries, and the dollar gained ground.

Emerging markets played it safe while gold held steady. Today’s producer price report will probably decide where money goes next globally.

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Oracle stock price is firing on all cylinders as the company becomes one of the biggest players in the AI industry. ORCL jumped by 28% to $310, adding over $190 billion in value. This surge is in line with our recent forecast.

Oracle earnings growth

Larry Ellison’s Oracle is doing well as it continued inking more multibillion-dollar deals in the artificial intelligence industry. 

Its recent results showed that it is becoming a major player in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. This demand is primarily driven by companies seeking an alternative to other hyperscalers, such as Amazon and Microsoft. 

The company is also benefiting from firms that are seeking to diversify from other cloud computing providers. A good example of this is ChatGPT’s OpenAI, which entered a multi-year deal with the company a few months ago. 

The deal with OpenAI is notable because Microsoft is its anchor investor. Oracle has also entered more deals with companies like Mithril, Numenta, ModMed, and Tensor. 

Oracle’s results showed that its remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped by 359% in the last quarter to $455 billion. RPO is an important number that looks at the value of contracted revenue that has not been recognized. It is also known a company’s backlog. 

Read more: As the Oracle stock price surges, will Larry Ellison flip Elon Musk?

Oracle’s revenue rose by 12% to $14.9 billion. A closer look at it business shows that the cloud infrastructure segment is leading the charge, with its revenue rising by 55%. 

Oracle’s SaaS business is also doing well, with its revenue rising by 28% to $7.2 billion. The other parts of its business are also thriving, with NetSuite, Fusion Cloud, and cloud applications growing by double digits. Larry Elison, the CEO said:

“We expect MultiCloud revenue to grow substantially every quarter for several years as we deliver another 37 datacenters to our three Hyperscaler partners, for a total of 71.”

Valuation risks remain

The latest Oracle earnings led to analysts upgrade as they expect it to be a major player in the AI industry, which analysts expect will continue thriving in the coming years.

In a note, a Jefferies analyst boosted his outlook for the stock from $270 to $360, a 50% upside from the current level. Keith Bachman from BMO Capital boosted the outlook for the stock to $275. More upgrades will likely come later today when the market opens.

Analysts also expect that the company will continue experiencing double-digit growth in the coming years. The average revenue estimate for the year is $66.9 billion, up by 16% from last year. It will make $80 billion next year. Based on its history, the company’s revenue will continue growing at a faster pace than expected.

However, the main risk for Oracle stock is that its stock has become highly overvalued, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio rising to over 50. To validate this multiple, the company will need to continue accelerating it revenue growth, especially in the AI infrastructure space.

Oracle stock price technical analysis

Our last Oracle stock forecast noted that it would likely surge after earnings, which happened. The real surge, however, was much higher than what we predicted.

The most likely scenario is where the company continues thriving in the coming months as investors bet on its AI solutions. However, the weekly chart shows that the stock remains above all moving averages.

This means that the ORCL stock price may retreat next year because of the situation known as mean reversion, where an asset moves back to its historical range.

Read more: Oracle jumps in premarket even as Barclays and RBC offer diverging views

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Oracle shares surged by more than 31% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the enterprise software company revealed its cloud backlog had ballooned to $455 billion, and forecast booked revenue from cloud business to exceed half a trillion dollars over the next few months.

The development overshadowed a mixed set of quarterly results and muted near-term guidance, shifting investor focus to the company’s long-term growth trajectory.

For the fiscal first quarter, Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.47, narrowly missing Wall Street’s consensus of $1.48 but rising from $1.39 a year earlier.

Revenue increased 12% year-on-year to $14.9 billion, slightly shy of analyst estimates.

Cloud services growth, a key metric, also fell short of expectations, while second-quarter guidance left investors underwhelmed.

The company’s stock nevertheless soared as attention turned to its backlog of contracted cloud work, known as remaining performance obligations (RPO).

Oracle said RPO jumped 359% from the prior quarter to $455 billion, boosted by four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three major customers.

Chief Executive Safra Catz said additional agreements are expected to push the backlog beyond half a trillion dollars in the coming months.

AI demand fuels cloud expansion

Oracle’s aggressive push into cloud computing has been driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

The company, long known for its database software, is now emerging as a major provider of AI cloud infrastructure, competing directly with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.

The company forecast Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth of 77% this fiscal year to $18 billion and projected $144 billion over the next four years.

First-quarter revenue from its public cloud services rose 55% from a year earlier.

Oracle’s partnerships and hybrid strategy

Oracle has also struck landmark agreements with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft to run its OCI within their clouds.

Revenue from these clients surged 1,529% in the quarter, showing how the company’s hybrid strategy is paying off.

The surge in demand has forced Oracle to transform its business model.

Once known for its asset-light, software-licensing approach, the company is now committing billions to building data centres.

Capital expenditures are expected to reach $35 billion in fiscal 2026, up from just $1.6 billion in 2020.

Legacy slowdown and financial trade-offs

Oracle’s pivot to the cloud represents both opportunity and challenge.

Between 2012 and 2022, Oracle’s average sales growth was just 1.6%, but steady cash flows allowed consistent share buybacks, reducing the share count by 5.3% annually and boosting per-share metrics.

That dynamic is now shifting. With cloud investment ramping, buybacks have slowed, and free cash flow has turned negative for two consecutive quarters.

The company’s share count is rising again, reflecting the cost of financing its growth strategy.

Analysts weigh promising backlog, AI strides against valuation: should you buy ORCL?

Oracle now expects fiscal 2025 sales growth of 8–14%, down from a prior forecast of 16–24%, and operating profit growth of 10–16%.

Despite near-term margin pressures, analysts believe the record backlog signals a new growth era.

Morningstar analysts said that Oracle’s partnerships with leading AI firms, including OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI, place it in a central role in training and inference workloads.

“Unprecedented RPO growth acceleration highlights that we are still early in a multiyear AI investment cycle,” said William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji, who kept an Outperform rating.

“While shares are not inexpensive, the impressive RPO build points to a meaningful acceleration in Oracle’s revenue and earnings growth over the next several years,” Naji wrote.

The stock is trading at over 33.34 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, compared with Amazon’s 32.34 and Microsoft’s 30.83.

Speaking to CNBC’s Fast Money after the earnings release, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria described Oracle’s cloud revenue outlook as “absolutely staggering,” noting it implies a tenfold increase over the next five years.

Luria, however, struck a note of caution.

He pointed out that hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Google have increasingly been “offloading their capacity to other data centre providers,” which has channelled business toward Oracle.

“These are not organic customers for Oracle,” Luria said, maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.

“These are Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s clients making use of Oracle’s capacity.”

Jefferies raised PT on Oracle from $270 to $360, maintaining ‘buy’ on the stock.

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