On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) modestly raised its global growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, noting unexpectedly strong trade activity ahead of a scheduled hike in US tariffs and a recent decline in the effective US tariff rate.

However, the Fund warned that persistent trade policy uncertainty, growing fiscal deficits, and geopolitical concerns continue to jeopardise global economic recovery.

Global growth is now seen at 3% in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than previously forecast, and at 3.1% in 2026, 0.1 points stronger, the IMF said.

Yet both numbers are still lower than the 3.3% prediction released in January, and well below the 3.7% pre-pandemic average.

“The world economy is still hurting, and it’s going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it’s not as bad as it could have been,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist.

Tariff-driven surge masks underlying weakness

The mild uptick in growth outlook is mainly driven by pre-emptive buying as companies rushed to frontload orders to avoid a US tariff onset on August 1.

While the US tariff rate has decreased from a high of 24.4% to an effective rate of 17.3%, this is still a significant distance away from the 2.5% level as of January 3rd of this year.

For the rest of the world, the tariff rate has also come down to 3.5% from 4.1% in April, but uncertainties abound: Tariffs that have yet to be imposed, for example, on pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors, are not yet incorporated into IMF projections.

While the recent surge in activity is positive, it is unlikely to last, Gourinchas warned.

“That is going to fade away,” he said. “There is going to be payback for that front loading, and that’s one of the risks we face.”

Despite modest improvements, risks remain

The IMF stressed that the global economic outlook remains fragile, with risks leaning toward the downside.

It identified continuing trade disputes, high tariffs, and increasing fiscal deficits as factors that could raise interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.

Despite recent deals between the United States, Japan, and the European Union on new 15% tariffs, they were too late to impact the July prediction.

IMF staff simulations indicate that if the maximum tariffs indicated in recent months were imposed, global growth in 2025 may be 0.2 percentage points lower than the present prediction.

The IMF also observed that underlying economic activity in many regions appeared to be influenced more by trade policy distortions than by true strength.

Temporary gains from front-loading may fade

Trade volumes were temporarily bolstered by US businesses stocking up on imports before previously announced tariffs were set to be raised.

Nonetheless, the IMF anticipates this “massive amount” of front-loading to be unwound in the second half of 2025, weighing on growth well into 2026.

US inflation should remain elevated above target over this time due to the rates of transmittance from tariffs to consumer prices.

World inflation should decelerate to 4.2% by 2024 and 3.6% by 2026, but the US experience may have longer-lasting price pressure.

The outlook for US growth was raised slightly to 1.9% in both 2025 and 2026, lifted by a new tax cut and spending package.

According to IMF estimates, this has increased the US budget deficit by 1.5 percentage points, partly offset by tariff revenues.

Shifting trade dynamics weigh on the outlook

The IMF raised China’s 2025 growth prediction by 0.8 percentage points, citing better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year and a temporary truce with the United States that decreased tariffs.

Growth in 2026 is predicted to be 4.2%, up 0.2 percentage points.

In the eurozone, growth for 2025 has been revised up to 1%, owing partly to a strong increase in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the United States.

The 2026 forecast stays unchanged at 1.2%.

Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to rise by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.

Meanwhile, the IMF upped its global trade growth prediction for 2025 to 2.6%, a 0.9 percentage point gain, but decreased the 2026 forecast to 1.9%, a 0.6 point decrease, reflecting the ephemeral nature of current trade activity.

One unexpected trend has been the weakening of the US dollar, which Gourinchas stated had not occurred during previous periods of trade dispute.

While a weaker currency eases financial circumstances in the United States, it increases the impact of tariffs on other economies.

In summary, while the global economy has shown resilience in the face of policy shocks, the IMF’s most recent report emphasises that uncertainty, particularly around trade, is likely to continue to weigh on investment, inflation, and long-term growth.

The post IMF nudges up global growth forecasts amid tariff volatility and geopolitical risks appeared first on Invezz

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is preparing for a major change in its business as it expects to lose half of its Amazon-related volume over the next six quarters, according to Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter.

The anticipated decline highlights the growing pressure on UPS CEO Carol Tomé to steer the company toward higher-margin segments, amid a broader backdrop of revenue challenges and evolving global trade conditions.

UPS stock tanked nearly 8.0% on Tuesday after reporting disappointing numbers for its fiscal Q2.

Why is UPS losing Amazon business?

UPS is losing Amazon business as the e-commerce behemoth continues to internalise its logistics operations.

Amazon has been committed to expanding its own delivery network, reducing reliance on 3^rd party carriers like United Parcel Service; a transition that forces UPS to reevaluate its customer mix and operational priorities.

UPS chief executive Carol Tomé is responding by doubling down on higher-margin segments and cutting costs aggressively, including facility closures and workforce reductions, to offset volume declines and preserve profitability.

However, her efforts have so far not resulted in sufficient confidence in updating the full-year outlook.

On Tuesday, the shipping giant cited macroeconomic uncertainty as it again refrained from offering more colour on what it expects for the remainder of 2025.

Including today’s post-earnings decline, UPS shares are down over 30% versus their year-to-date high.

What tariffs mean for UPS stock in 2025

UPS’s international business is facing headwinds from “de minimis” tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments.

These levies, introduced by the White House in May, have disrupted the flow of bargain e-commerce goods from platforms like Temu and Shein – key contributors to the multinational’s Sino-US trade volume.

In an interview with CNBC, Ken Hoexter said UPS’s international margins have dropped to 14%, their lowest in over a decade, due to the removal of the de minimis exemption, which is significantly hurting discretionary online purchases.

This margin compression, he added, is weighing significantly on investor sentiment, contributing to a continued downtrend in UPS stock price in 2025.  

BofA still says buy UPS stock on post-earnings dip

Despite near-term challenges, the Bank of America analyst maintained his bullish stance on UPS stock, viewing the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Ken Hoexter believes the company’s aggressive cost-cutting measures and strategic pivot toward higher-margin business will pay off in the long run.

BofA has a $115 price target on United Parcel Service that indicates potential upside of more than 20% from here.

Additionally, an exceptionally lucrative dividend yield of more than 7.0% makes UPS shares all the more attractive to own for the back half of 2025.

Investors should note that BofA is not the only Wall Street firm that’s keeping positive on United Parcel Services.

The consensus rating on the shipping and logistics company also currently sits at “overweight”.

The post UPS stock: analyst says it will lose half of Amazon business by mid 2026 appeared first on Invezz

JPMorgan Chase is reportedly nearing a deal to take over the Apple Card, signaling a potential shake-up in one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent forays into consumer finance.

Apple is said to be favoring JPMorgan as its next banking partner, according to the Wall Street Journal, after Goldman Sachs decided to bow out of the credit card business.

The exit follows years of mounting losses, operational friction, and increased scrutiny from regulators, challenges that ultimately made the Apple Card partnership more trouble than it was worth for Goldman.

Launched in 2019, the Apple Card has since grown into a sizable operation, with more than 12 million users and a credit portfolio that now tops $17 billion.

For JPMorgan, stepping in would mean not just absorbing that scale, but also deepening its ties with Apple at a time when digital finance is becoming a bigger part of the banking playbook.

Apple’s deepening relationship with JPMorgan

If the deal goes through, it would bring Apple and JPMorgan even closer, deepening a relationship that already runs pretty deep behind the scenes.

JPMorgan already has deep ties to Apple. As the country’s largest bank, it processes Apple Pay transactions for millions of Chase cardholders and frequently promotes Apple products through customer perks.

Taking over the Apple Card would be a natural extension of that relationship and a chance for JPMorgan to further cement its role in the growing intersection of tech and finance.

For Apple, the switch would bring in a more seasoned banking partner—one with a longer track record in consumer credit and the infrastructure to handle a program of this scale.

For JPMorgan, it’s an opportunity to grow its digital payments footprint and play a bigger role in shaping the future of fintech.

That said, the deal isn’t done yet. While talks have moved forward, there are still a few unresolved issues on the table.

Sources say negotiations over pricing and potential program tweaks could stretch out the timeline or even scuttle the deal entirely if things don’t align.

One of the key hurdles is price: JPMorgan reportedly wants a discount on the portfolio, citing concerns around credit quality and the quirks in how the card program runs.

There’s also the matter of Apple’s unusual billing setup, which has all cardholders receiving statements on the same day each month.

That system overwhelmed Goldman’s support teams, and JPMorgan is pushing for changes. Apple appears willing to tweak the model, but until everything’s signed, sealed, and delivered, the outcome remains up in the air.

Goldman Sachs’ bumpy ride

When Goldman Sachs teamed up with Apple to launch the Apple Card in 2019, it was seen as a bold bet on consumer finance.

But the reality turned out messier. Losses piled up, customer service costs ballooned, and regulatory pressure mounted leading Goldman to rethink its entire approach to retail banking.

Backing out of the Apple Card was just one part of that retreat.

Now, JPMorgan Chase looks poised to pick up where Goldman left off. It’s a very different kind of move.

While Goldman is pulling back, JPMorgan sees a long-term play: deeper access to Apple’s massive ecosystem and a chance to expand its digital payments footprint.

If the deal goes through, it could reshape how traditional banks partner with tech giants.

It’s also a reminder that even with all the talk about disruption, old-school financial infrastructure still plays a critical role in making flashy new fintech work.

The post Apple dumps Goldman Sachs? JPMorgan eyes Apple Card takeover in major shakeup appeared first on Invezz

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: AMD) has already rallied nearly 30% since early April but Rober Schein – the chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management believes the AI stock is not done pleasing its shareholders just yet.

In a CNBC interview this morning, Schein dubbed AMD stock a “top pick” for those interested in betting on continued robust demand for artificial intelligence over the next 12 months.

Note that AMD shares’ meteoric rally in recent months has pushed it all the way back to near its all-time high of over $200 in early 2024.

AMD stock is not inexpensive to own

AMD is not an inexpensive stock to own following its explosive move to the upside since April 8.

It’s currently going for a forward price-to-earnings multiple of nearly 54, sharply higher than about 43 on Nvidia at the time of writing, according to data from Barchart.

Still, Robert Schein recommends looking beyond valuation and buying AMD stock at the current level as “valuation is a terrible tool for trading.”

The market expert remains bullish on Advanced Micro Devices for the long-term, mostly because it’s fast-emerging as a serious competitor to the space leader – Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA).

AMD shares could benefit from pricing power

Schein is convinced that AMD’s latest accelerator, the MI350, is building a name for itself as a true rival to Nvidia’s Blackwell series of AI chips.

According to the chief investment officer, the Nasdaq listed firm has the power to significantly lift prices of its artificial intelligence offering without seeing a major decline in demand.

“They increased it 7% on pricing power alone. They went from 15,000 per chip to 25,000. That’s going to take their creative earnings right to the bottom line,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.

He’s positive on AMD shares also because the company’s most sophisticated AI accelerators have already secured mega-cap names, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms, as customers.

AMD is evolving into a true Nvidia rival

In May, Advanced Micro Devices guided for better-than-expected $7.4 billion in sales in its current financial quarter – indicating continued demand for its AI chips.

On “Worldwide Exchange”, Robert Schein said it means the “AI space is live, well, and strong.”

Investors should also note that AMD stock stands to benefit as the Trump administration adjusts its policies to enable chipmakers to resume their business with China in the second half of 2025.

All in all, Schein remains constructive on the AI stock as it’s finally starting to give Nvidia “a run for its money.”

That said, the stretched valuation is not as negligible for the Wall Street firms as it is for the Blanke Schein Wealth Management’s chief investment officer.

While the consensus rating on AMD shares remains at “moderate buy”, analysts currently have a mean target of about $149 on the chipmaker, which translates to over 15% potential downside from current levels.

The post AMD stock is finally giving Nvidia ‘a run for its money’: find out more appeared first on Invezz

Mizuho’s senior analyst Dan Dolev disagrees with the popular narrative that stablecoins pose a disruptive threat to legacy payment giants like Visa Inc (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA).

In an interview with CNBC last week, Dolev agreed that the crypto ecosystem continues to attract attention from investors and technologists alike, but said the disruption thesis – particularly related to consumer payments – is fundamentally flawed.

“Graveyards are full of people who shorted Mastercard and Visa on such ideas,” he warned, adding, “they’ve been proven wrong again and again.”

Despite the hype surrounding blockchain and stablecoin adoption, especially after President Trump signed the “GENIUS Act” into law on July 18^th, Dolev believes the core value proposition of credit networks remains intact, particularly in areas where consumers get tangible benefits like rewards.

Stablecoins are disruptive, but not for Visa and Mastercard

Dolev does believe in the disruptive potential of stablecoins – but only in narrow segments of the payments landscape.

Specifically, he sees impact in remittances and B2B cross-border transactions, where traditional players charge high fees and offer limited innovation.

However, speaking with CNBC, he drew clear line between these niches and the broader consumer payments ecosystem.

Stablecoins are disruptive to certain pockets in payments, but nothing that touches consumer.

According to the Mizuho analyst, Visa Inc. and Mastercard aren’t servicing those areas directly, meaning their core business remains insulated from stablecoin competition.

Visa, Mastercard value proposition still wins

Dolev remains unconvinced that stablecoins will replace traditional payment networks primarily because of the value proposition tied to credit cards.

Credit cards are about way more than convenience – they offer rewards, build credit, and enable access to services that stablecoins don’t replicate, he argued.

Even when comparing stablecoin yields to credit card points, the Mizuho analyst noted that yields are rate-dependent.

If interest rates fall, the incentive to use stablecoins diminishes, making it harder to monetize the business.

Stablecoins: crypto hype vs. market reality

On “Power Lunch”, Dolev also cautioned against overestimating the scale and momentum of the stablecoin market.

While companies like Circle and platforms like Coinbase have generated excitement, he quoted stagnant market cap growth as evidence of a disconnect between narrative and reality.

“The USDC market cap literally hasn’t moved since April – there’s a massive bifurcation between the story and the reality” he told CNBC.

All in all, Dan Dolev remains somewhat skeptical of stablecoins’ long-term profitability, especially if rates decline.

Should you buy Visa or Mastercard stock?

Dolev’s explanation on “Power Lunch” suggests the recent, stablecoins-driven pullback in Visa and Mastercard stock may be an opportunity to buy quality names at deep discounts.

That’s why Wall Street continues to rate both fintech stocks at “overweight” for the back half of 2025.

Plus, both V and MA shares currently pay a dividend yield of more than 0.50%, which makes up for another great reason to own them for the long-term.

The post Mizuho analyst explains why stablecoins aren’t disruptive threat to Visa and Mastercard appeared first on Invezz

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that India could be subject to tariffs ranging between 20% and 25% as the US moves toward imposing reciprocal levies on trading partners who have yet to reach new trade agreements.

The president’s remarks, made aboard Air Force One following a visit to Scotland, come ahead of an August 1 deadline by which several countries must either reach a deal with the US or face higher tariffs on certain exports.

“India has been a good friend,” Trump stated, “but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country. You just can’t do that.”

While the final rate is yet to be determined, Trump confirmed that a 20–25% tariff range was under consideration.

The current 10% tariff rate imposed in April was intended as a temporary measure, offering time for negotiations.

However, with only a few agreements finalized thus far, the administration is preparing to move forward with broader tariff hikes on trading partners, including India.

Talks continue even as tariff deadline looms

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer emphasized Monday that further negotiations with India are needed, noting that Washington is prioritizing favorable deals over quick resolutions.

“We need more negotiations with our Indian friends to see how ambitious they want to be,” Greer told CNBC.

Indian government officials confirmed to Reuters that they are bracing for higher tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, but consider such measures temporary.

“Talks are progressing well, and a delegation is expected in Delhi by mid-August,” one official noted, suggesting that a more comprehensive agreement could be finalized by September or October.

In the meantime, New Delhi is holding back on additional trade concessions.

Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal recently described the talks as making “fantastic” progress.

While India has offered tariff cuts on a wide range of goods and is working to ease non-tariff barriers, it remains firm on keeping its agriculture and dairy sectors closed, particularly to genetically modified soybean, corn, and foreign dairy imports.

Strategic calculations and global trade tensions

The renewed trade friction comes as India recalibrates its trade strategy in response to wider US tariff threats against BRICS nations over geopolitical issues such as de-dollarisation and purchases of Russian oil.

Indian officials indicated they aim to secure a deal that offers Indian exporters preferential access compared to peer economies.

Total bilateral goods trade between the US and India reached $129 billion in 2024, with India recording a trade surplus of nearly $46 billion.

However, absent a deal, Indian exports may face average US tariffs of around 26%—higher than those levied on Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, or the European Union.

While both sides remain committed to ongoing dialogue, key sticking points and geopolitical complexities may prolong negotiations.

Still, Indian officials express optimism that a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement will be reached in the coming months.

The post Trump signals potential tariffs of up to 25% on India appeared first on Invezz

Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) announced a blockbuster merger that values each share of peer Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC) at $320 – huge premium on its previous close – on Tuesday.

Still, NSC shares ended lower today reflecting investors remain cautious on the first mega railroad consolidation since 1999.

Despite headline valuation, skepticism around regulatory approval and labour resistance weighed on Norfolk Southern stock on July 29^th.  

Norfolk Southern stock sinks on regulatory uncertainty

Investors are staying clear of NSC stock despite merger news primarily because they’re not entirely convinced the $85 billion agreement will survive regulatory scrutiny.

The Surface Transportation Board (STB), which oversees rail mergers, has historically been hostile to Class I consolidations.

The last serious attempt at a major merger within this space (Burlington Northern and Canadian National in 1999) triggered a moratorium that lasted years – and investors fear a repeat with NSC-UNP deal.  

While both Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern argue the deal will enhance efficiency and service, markets are wary of prolonged delays or outright rejection, which could derail premium valuation and leave Norfolk Southern shares exposed.

Labour resistance remains an overhang on NSC shares

Compounding regulatory concerns is the looming challenge from the rail industry’s largest union – SMART Transport Division (SMART-TD).

SMART-TD has already signalled plans of opposing the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern deal due to potential job losses, operational disruptions, and weakened bargaining power.

Labor groups have grown increasingly vocal in recent years – and their influence on regulatory outcomes has strengthened.

A formal challenge could further complicate the approval process, especially if it triggers hearings or public opposition campaigns.

Investors are pricing in the significant risk that union resistance could either delay the merger or force concessions that dilute its financial appeal – adding another layer of uncertainty to Norfolk Southern stock price.

Are these concerns overblown?

According to Donald Broughton, the aforementioned concerns may be overblown, and the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern deal will clear regulatory and labour-related hurdles.

In a CNBC interview today, he argued the financial conditions, such as overleveraged balance sheet of railroad firms that stood in the way of such deals in the past, have been resolved.

More importantly, the Union Pacific management, particularly Jim Vena, its chief executive, has deep experience in leading acquisitions and successfully negotiating with labour unions, Broughton added.

All in all, since NSC shares are currently trading at about $277 – well below the merger price, this classic merger arbitrage setups spells opportunity for those betting on the NSC-UNP deal going through despite near-term regulatory and labour headwinds.

Note that Wall Street analysts also currently have a consensus “overweight” rating on shares of Atlanta headquartered Norfolk Southern Corp, which currently pay a dividend yield of 1.95% as well.

The post Two big reasons why Norfolk Southern stock closed lower despite Union Pacific deal appeared first on Invezz

Asian stock markets began Wednesday’s session with a modest and cautious advance, as investors held their breath ahead of a crucial policy announcement from the US Federal Reserve.

The market mood was also shaped by the conclusion of trade talks between the US and China, which ended without any substantive agreement, leaving the global trade landscape in a state of continued uncertainty.

A sense of anticipation is palpable across trading floors today. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.3%, led by gains for Taiwanese stocks.

This followed a session of mild losses for US stocks as traders braced for a slew of major corporate earnings reports. Australian shares were up 0.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid a marginal 0.03%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index skidded 0.4%.

Investors are preparing for a packed few days of market-moving events. Several central bank decisions are on the docket, along with key economic reports and a fresh wave of corporate earnings, all culminating in US President Donald Trump’s fast-approaching August 1 tariff deadline.

The main event today will be the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

The central bank is widely expected to leave its interest rates unchanged, though the decision could see a rare dissent from some officials who are in favor of lowering borrowing costs.

“With labour market conditions near full employment, most Fed officials want to wait and see how tariffs impact inflation,” said Tom Kenny, senior international economist at ANZ in Sydney, on a podcast.

He noted that some officials are concerned that tariffs could drive higher inflation expectations, leading to more persistent price pressures rather than just a one-off hit. “Our expectation is that the Fed should be in a position to cut rates at the September meeting,” Kenny added.

In the bond market, US Treasury bonds advanced ahead of the Fed’s meeting, pushing yields to their lowest level in almost four weeks.

This came after a strong auction of seven-year notes helped to quell concerns about diminishing demand for US government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last at 4.328%, its lowest level since July 3.

The trade talk tightrope: no breakthroughs as deadlines near

The high-stakes trade talks between US and Chinese officials concluded on Tuesday with an agreement to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced.

US officials have stated that it is now up to President Trump to decide whether to extend the trade truce, which expires on August 12, or to potentially let tariffs shoot back up to triple-digit figures.

Other nations are also in a race against the clock. India is reportedly bracing for higher US tariffs—likely to be between 20% and 25%—on some of its exports, as it holds off on making fresh trade concessions ahead of the August 1 deadline, according to two Indian government sources.

Meanwhile, three South Korean cabinet-level officials met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a last-ditch effort to secure a deal for their country.

In Japan, the focus will be on the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Thursday.

The central bank is expected to hold its policy steady, but investors will be scrutinizing its comments to gauge when the next rate increase might come, especially after the recent trade deal between Japan and the US cleared a major hurdle for the BOJ to resume its rate-hike path.

Corporate earnings and commodity watch

In the corporate world, US tech megacaps Microsoft and Meta are due to report their earnings on Wednesday. These results will be crucial in setting the tone for the rest of the week and the broader earnings season.

“It’s been a solid US reporting season so far, but these megacap names need to run it hot and blow the lights out, given the bar to please has been sufficiently raised,” commented Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

In commodity markets, oil prices rose as potential supply shortages came into focus after President Trump gave Moscow an abbreviated deadline to work towards ending the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures rose 14 cents, or 0.19%, to $72.65 a barrel.

In currency news, the Singapore dollar strengthened by 0.2% after Singapore’s central bank kept its monetary policy settings unchanged on Wednesday.

This decision followed stronger-than-expected economic growth in the country for the second quarter. The euro also edged up from a one-month low, rising 0.2% to $1.1564, as markets continued to weigh the implications of the EU’s recent trade deal with the Trump administration.

The post Asian markets open: stocks rise; US-China trade talks end without major breakthrough appeared first on Invezz

Indian equity benchmarks, the Sensex and Nifty, are poised for a subdued start to Wednesday’s trading session, as a confluence of global and domestic factors fosters a sense of rising caution among investors.

The market is contending with the impending US Federal Reserve policy decision, the continued delay in a much-anticipated India-US trade deal, a muted start to the corporate earnings season, and persistent selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

The primary driver of the cautious mood is the high-stakes policy announcement from the US Federal Reserve, expected later today.

This, combined with the continued uncertainty in the global trade landscape, has left investors hesitant to take on risky bets.

Asian stock markets began Wednesday’s session with a modest and cautious advance, with the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up a slight 0.3%.

While some markets like South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.85 percent, others like Japan’s Nikkei were up a marginal 0.03 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.20 percent.

This mixed regional picture offers little in the way of a strong directional cue for Indian markets.

The market mood was also shaped by the conclusion of recent trade talks between the US and China, which ended without any substantive agreement, adding another layer of uncertainty.

This comes as investors are preparing for a packed few days of market-moving events, culminating in US President Donald Trump’s fast-approaching August 1 tariff deadline.

Muted start expected on Dalal Street

Against this backdrop, Indian equities are expected to start the day on a negative note. Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were trading 39.30 points, or 0.16 percent, down at 24,799.50, hinting at a weak opening for the domestic market.

This expected dip follows a session on Wall Street where US stocks closed lower on Tuesday after some disappointing corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 204.57 points, or 0.46 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.30 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.38 percent.

Adding to the pressure on Dalal Street is the consistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which has been a significant factor in denting market sentiment in recent sessions.

The delay in finalizing the India-U.S. trade deal and a so-far muted start to the quarterly earnings season by India Inc. are also weighing on investor confidence.

In currency and commodity markets, the US dollar index was hovering near a one-month high at 98.815, on track for its first month of gains this year.

In commodities, oil prices rose as potential supply shortages came into focus after President Trump gave Moscow an abbreviated deadline to work towards ending the war in Ukraine, with Brent crude futures rising 0.19 percent to $72.65 a barrel.

Spot gold also rose 0.4 percent to $3,327.69 per ounce.

The post A muted start for Sensex, Nifty as a ‘wall of worry’ builds ahead of US Fed decision appeared first on Invezz

LNG Canada, a Shell-led initiative, is facing technical difficulties as it increases production at its Kitimat liquefied natural gas plant. 

This has led to at least one LNG tanker being diverted from the facility recently without its superchilled fuel, Reuters quoted four sources and LSEG ship tracking data in a report.

The plant is Canada’s first major LNG export facility, and North America’s first on the west coast, offering direct access to Asia, the world’s largest LNG market.

When fully operational, the facility is anticipated to convert approximately 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcfd) to LNG. This is expected by market participants to positively impact Canadian natural gas prices.

Despite fresh demand from LNG Canada’s July 1 startup, Western Canadian natural gas prices remain depressed due to a persistent supply glut.

On Tuesday, the daily spot price at the AECO storage hub in Alberta Energy Company was $0.22 per mmBtu. This contrasts with the US Henry Hub benchmark price of $3.12, according to LSEG data.

LNG Canada’s ambitious project, which consumed nearly seven years in its construction phase, is currently facing operational challenges. 

Operational challenges

According to two of the four available sources, the first plant, also referred to as a “train,” is functioning at less than half of its intended capacity. 

This underperformance raises questions about the project’s efficiency and its ability to meet initial production targets. 

The extended construction timeline and the subsequent operational limitations highlight potential complexities in large-scale energy infrastructure development, encompassing unforeseen technical hurdles, supply chain disruptions, or market shifts that might impact the project’s output. 

According to the report, the facility’s Train 1 has encountered technical problems with both a gas turbine and a Refrigerant Production Unit (RPU).

An LNG Canada spokesperson indicated that a new facility of the joint venture’s size and scale might encounter operational challenges during its production ramp-up and stabilisation phases.

Diverted shipments and technical issues

LSEG ship tracking data indicated that Shell has diverted at least one empty LNG vessel to Peru, while other tankers are still in the vicinity of the facility.

According to LSEG ship tracking data, the LNG tanker Ferrol Knutsen, with a capacity of 170,520 cubic meters, initially indicated it was en route to the Kitimat port. However, it has since altered its course and is now off the coast of California, heading towards Peru.

LNG Canada is a joint venture comprising several international companies: Shell, Malaysia’s Petronas, PetroChina, Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp, and South Korea’s KOGAS.

Export projections

LNG Canada is projected to have an export capacity of 14 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) when it reaches full operational status, according to company statements.

The facility has already exported four cargoes, with the inaugural shipment occurring on July 1. An LNG Canada spokesperson announced that an additional shipment is anticipated soon.

As the plant transitions from its initial operational phase to a consistent shipping schedule, the rate of exports is expected to accelerate, according to the spokesperson.

The spokesperson said:

In regular operations in Phase 1, we anticipate loading one export cargo from our facility every two days.

The post Why Shell-led LNG Canada project faces production challenges appeared first on Invezz